913 resultados para Poisson regression model


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OBJECTIVE(S): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death. DESIGN: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window. METHODS: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed. RESULTS: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.

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OBJECTIVE: The aim of this work was to assess loss to follow-up (LTFU) in EuroSIDA, an international multicentre observational cohort study. METHODS: LTFU was defined as no follow-up visit, CD4 cell count measurement or viral load measurement after 1 January 2006. Poisson regression was used to describe factors related to LTFU. RESULTS: The incidence of LTFU in 12 304 patients was 3.72 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.58-3.86; 2712 LTFU] and varied among countries from 0.67 to 13.35. After adjustment, older patients, those with higher CD4 cell counts, and those who had started combination antiretroviral therapy all had lower incidences of LTFU, while injecting drug users had a higher incidence of LTFU. Compared with patients from Southern Europe and Argentina, patients from Eastern Europe had over a twofold increased incidence of LTFU after adjustment (incidence rate ratio 2.16; 95% CI 1.84-2.53; P<0.0001). A total of 2743 patients had a period of >1 year with no CD4 cell count or viral load measured during the year; 743 (27.1%) subsequently returned to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Some patients thought to be LTFU may have died, and efforts should be made to ascertain vital status wherever possible. A significant proportion of patients who have a year with no follow-up visit, CD4 cell count measurement or viral load measurement subsequently return to follow-up.

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INTRODUCTION: Published prevalence rates of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) vary. This study aims to describe the epidemiology of CDH using data from high-quality, population-based registers belonging to the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT). METHODS: Cases of CDH delivered between 1980 and 2009 notified to 31 EUROCAT registers formed the population-based case series. Prevalence over time was estimated using multilevel Poisson regression, and heterogeneity between registers was evaluated from the random component of the intercept. RESULTS: There were 3373 CDH cases reported among 12 155 491 registered births. Of 3131 singleton cases, 353 (10.4%) were associated with a chromosomal anomaly, genetic syndrome or microdeletion, 784 (28.2%) were associated with other major structural anomalies. The male to female ratio of CDH cases overall was 1:0.69. Total prevalence was 2.3 (95% CI 2.2 to 2.4) per 10 000 births and 1.6 (95% CI 1.6 to 1.7) for isolated CDH cases. There was a small but significant increase (relative risk (per year)=1.01, 95% credible interval 1.00-1.01; p=0.030) in the prevalence of total CDH over time but there was no significant increase for isolated cases (ie, CDH cases that did not occur with any other congenital anomaly). There was significant variation in total and isolated CDH prevalence between registers. The proportion of cases that survived to 1 week was 69.3% (1392 cases) for total CDH cases and 72.7% (1107) for isolated cases. CONCLUSIONS: This large population-based study found an increase in total CDH prevalence over time. CDH prevalence also varied significantly according to geographical location. No significant association was found with maternal age.

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BACKGROUND: Whether nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors increase the risk of myocardial infarction in HIV-infected individuals is unclear. Our aim was to explore whether exposure to such drugs was associated with an excess risk of myocardial infarction in a large, prospective observational cohort of HIV-infected patients. METHODS: We used Poisson regression models to quantify the relation between cumulative, recent (currently or within the preceding 6 months), and past use of zidovudine, didanosine, stavudine, lamivudine, and abacavir and development of myocardial infarction in 33 347 patients enrolled in the D:A:D study. We adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors that are unlikely to be affected by antiretroviral therapy, cohort, calendar year, and use of other antiretrovirals. FINDINGS: Over 157,912 person-years, 517 patients had a myocardial infarction. We found no associations between the rate of myocardial infarction and cumulative or recent use of zidovudine, stavudine, or lamivudine. By contrast, recent-but not cumulative-use of abacavir or didanosine was associated with an increased rate of myocardial infarction (compared with those with no recent use of the drugs, relative rate 1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir and 1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.003] with didanosine); rates were not significantly increased in those who stopped these drugs more than 6 months previously compared with those who had never received these drugs. After adjustment for predicted 10-year risk of coronary heart disease, recent use of both didanosine and abacavir remained associated with increased rates of myocardial infarction (1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.004] with didanosine; 1.89, 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir). INTERPRETATION: There exists an increased risk of myocardial infarction in patients exposed to abacavir and didanosine within the preceding 6 months. The excess risk does not seem to be explained by underlying established cardiovascular risk factors and was not present beyond 6 months after drug cessation.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate deaths from AIDS-defining malignancies (ADM) and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (nADM) in the D:A:D Study and to investigate the relationship between these deaths and immunodeficiency. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHODS: Patients (23 437) were followed prospectively for 104 921 person-years. We used Poisson regression models to identify factors independently associated with deaths from ADM and nADM. Analyses of factors associated with mortality due to nADM were repeated after excluding nADM known to be associated with a specific risk factor. RESULTS: Three hundred five patients died due to a malignancy, 298 prior to the cutoff for this analysis (ADM: n = 110; nADM: n = 188). The mortality rate due to ADM decreased from 20.1/1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.4, 25.9] when the most recent CD4 cell count was <50 cells/microl to 0.1 (0.03, 0.3)/1000 person-years of follow-up when the CD4 cell count was more than 500 cells/microl; the mortality rate from nADM decreased from 6.0 (95% CI 3.3, 10.1) to 0.6 (0.4, 0.8) per 1000 person-years of follow-up between these two CD4 cell count strata. In multivariable regression analyses, a two-fold higher latest CD4 cell count was associated with a halving of the risk of ADM mortality. Other predictors of an increased risk of ADM mortality were homosexual risk group, older age, a previous (non-malignancy) AIDS diagnosis and earlier calendar years. Predictors of an increased risk of nADM mortality included lower CD4 cell count, older age, current/ex-smoking status, longer cumulative exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy, active hepatitis B infection and earlier calendar year. CONCLUSION: The severity of immunosuppression is predictive of death from both ADM and nADM in HIV-infected populations.

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BACKGROUND: Hirschsprung's disease is a congenital gut motility disorder, characterised by the absence of the enteric ganglion cells along the distal gut. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology of Hirschsprung's disease, including additional congenital anomalies, total prevalence, trends, and association with maternal age. METHODS: Cases of Hirschsprung's disease delivered during 1980 to 2009 notified to 31 European Surveillance of Congenital Anomaly registers formed the population-based case-series. Prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated as the number of cases per 10,000 births. Multilevel Poisson regression was performed to investigate trends in prevalence, geographical variation and the association with maternal age. RESULTS: There were 1,322 cases of Hirschsprung's disease among 12,146,210 births. The total prevalence was 1.09 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.15) per 10,000 births and there was a small but significant increase in prevalence over time (relative risk = 1.01; 95% credible interval, 1.00-1.02; p = 0.004). There was evidence of geographical heterogeneity in prevalence (p < 0.001). Excluding 146 (11.0%) cases with chromosomal anomalies or genetic syndromes, there were 1,176 cases (prevalence = 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.03 per 10,000 births), of which 137 (11.6%) had major structural anomalies. There was no evidence of a significant increased risk of Hirschsprung's disease in cases born to women aged ≥35 years compared with those aged 25 to 29 (relative risk = 1.09; 95% credible interval, 0.91-1.31; p = 0.355). CONCLUSION: This large population-based study found evidence of a small increasing trend in Hirschsprung's disease and differences in prevalence by geographic location. There was also no evidence of an association with maternal age. Birth Defects Research (Part A), 100:695-702, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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El presente trabajo traslada el debate académico alrededor del mayor riesgo de pobreza que afrontan las mujeres en relación a los hombres al contexto español. Tras una breve revisión bibliográfica de los datos disponibles sobre la pobreza femenina en países industrializados y sus posibles causantes, se ponen a prueba esos mismos factores potencialmente culpables en el caso español. Del EU-SILC de 2010 se ha sacado una muestra formada únicamente por mujeres y hombres que o bien viven solos o con hijos a su cargo y, partiendo de ella, el método de la regresión logística ha concluido que hay factores exclusivamente explicativos de la pobreza femenina. Ser madre soltera, ser joven (entre 16 y 25 años) y no haber nacido en España tienen una importante capacidad explicativa de la pobreza femenina mientras no son significativas como explicación de la pobreza masculina. Si a estos factores añadimos no tener un trabajo, un bajo logro educativo y no recibir ningún subsidio individual, obtenemos un conjunto de factores que explican un 26.8% de los casos de mujeres españolas pobres que viven solas o son madres solteras. Estos datos ponen de relieve la necesidad de más investigaciones al respecto que consigan un mayor poder explicativo.

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BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV), human herpesvirus-6 and -7 (HHV-6 and -7) are beta-herpesviruses that commonly reactivate and have been proposed to trigger acute rejection and chronic allograft injury. We assessed the contribution of these viruses in the development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) after lung transplantation. METHODS: Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction of bronchoalveolar lavage samples were performed for CMV, HHV-6 and -7 in a prospective cohort of lung transplant recipients. A time-dependent Cox regression analysis was used to correlate the risk of BOS and acute rejection in patients with and without beta-herpesviruses infection. RESULTS: Ninety-three patients were included in the study over a period of 3 years. A total of 581 samples from bronchoalveolar lavage were obtained. Sixty-one patients (65.6%) had at least one positive result for one of the beta-herpesviruses: 48 patients (51.6%) for CMV and 19 patients (20.4%) for both HHV-6 and -7. Median peak viral load was 3419 copies/mL for CMV, 258 copies/mL for HHV-6, and 665 copies/mL for HHV-7. Acute rejection (>or=grade 2) occurred in 46.2% and BOS (>or=stage 1) in 19.4% of the patients. In the Cox regression model the relative risk of acute rejection or BOS was not increased in patients with any beta-herpesviruses reactivation. Acute rejection was the only independently associated risk factor for BOS. CONCLUSIONS: In lung transplant recipients receiving prolonged antiviral prophylaxis, reactivation of beta-herpesviruses within the allograft was common. However, despite high viral loads in many patients, virus replication was not associated with the development of rejection or BOS.

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Background: Modelling epidemiological knowledge in validated clinical scores is a practical mean of integrating EBM to usual care. Existing scores about cardiovascular disease have been largely developed in emergency settings, but few in primary care. Such a toll is needed for general practitioners (GP) to evaluate the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in patients with non-traumatic chest pain. Objective: To develop a predictive model to use as a clinical score for detecting IHD in patients with non-traumatic chest-pain in primary care. Methods: A post-hoc secondary analysis on data from an observational study including 672 patients with chest pain of which 85 had IHD diagnosed by their GP during the year following their inclusion. Best subset method was used to select 8 predictive variables from univariate analysis and fitted in a multivariate logistic regression model to define the score. Reliability of the model was assessed using split-group method. Results: Significant predictors were: age (0-3 points), gender (1 point), having at least one cardiovascular risks factor (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking, family history of CVD; 3 points), personal history of cardiovascular disease (1 point), duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes (2 points), substernal chest pain (1 point), pain increasing with exertion (1 point) and absence of tenderness at palpation (1 point). Area under the ROC curve for the score was of 0.95 (IC95% 0.93; 0.97). Patients were categorised in three groups, low risk of IHD (score under 6; n = 360), moderate risk of IHD (score from 6 to 8; n = 187) and high risk of IHD (score from 9-13; n = 125). Prevalence of IHD in each group was respectively of 0%, 6.7%, 58.5%. Reliability of the model seems satisfactory as the model developed from the derivation set predicted perfectly (p = 0.948) the number of patients in each group in the validation set. Conclusion: This clinical score based only on history and physical exams can be an important tool in the practice of the general physician for the prediction of ischemic heart disease in patients complaining of chest pain. The score below 6 points (in more than half of our population) can avoid demanding complementary exams for selected patients (ECG, laboratory tests) because of the very low risk of IHD. Score above 6 points needs investigation to detect or rule out IHD. Further external validation is required in ambulatory settings.

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BACKGROUND: Data on a link between HCV or HBV infection and the development of cardiovascular disease among HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals are conflicting. We sought to investigate the association between HBV or HCV infection and myocardial infarction in HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: The prospective observational database of the D:A:D collaboration of 11 cohorts of HIV-infected individuals, including 212 clinics in Europe, the United States and Australia was used. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to assess the effect of HCV or HBV infection on the development of myocardial infarction after adjustment for potential confounders, including cardiovascular risk factors, diabetes mellitus and exposure to antiretroviral therapy. RESULTS: Of 33,347 individuals, 517 developed a myocardial infarction over 157,912 person-years, with an event rate of 3.3 events/1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0-3.6). Event rates (95% CIs) per 1,000 person-years in those who were HCV-seronegative and HCV-seropositive were 3.3 (3.0-3.7) and 2.7 (2.2-3.3), respectively, and for those who were HBV-seronegative, had inactive infection or had active infection were 3.2 (2.8-3.5), 4.2 (3.1-5.2) and 2.8 (1.8-3.9), respectively. After adjustment, there was no association between HCV seropositivity (rate ratio 0.86 [95% CI 0.62-1.19]), inactive HBV infection (rate ratio 1.07 [95% CI 0.79-1.43]) or active HBV infection (rate ratio 0.78 [95% CI 0.52-1.15]) and the development of myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: We found no association between HBV or HCV coinfection and the development of myocardial infarction among HIV-infected individuals.

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BACKGROUND: The clinical course of HIV-1 infection is highly variable among individuals, at least in part as a result of genetic polymorphisms in the host. Toll-like receptors (TLRs) have a key role in innate immunity and mutations in the genes encoding these receptors have been associated with increased or decreased susceptibility to infections. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in TLR2-4 and TLR7-9 influenced the natural course of HIV-1 infection. METHODS: Twenty-eight SNPs in TLRs were analysed in HAART-naive HIV-positive patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The SNPs were detected using Sequenom technology. Haplotypes were inferred using an expectation-maximization algorithm. The CD4 T cell decline was calculated using a least-squares regression. Patients with a rapid CD4 cell decline, less than the 15th percentile, were defined as rapid progressors. The risk of rapid progression associated with SNPs was estimated using a logistic regression model. Other candidate risk factors included age, sex and risk groups (heterosexual, homosexual and intravenous drug use). RESULTS: Two SNPs in TLR9 (1635A/G and +1174G/A) in linkage disequilibrium were associated with the rapid progressor phenotype: for 1635A/G, odds ratio (OR), 3.9 [95% confidence interval (CI),1.7-9.2] for GA versus AA and OR, 4.7 (95% CI,1.9-12.0) for GG versus AA (P = 0.0008). CONCLUSION: Rapid progression of HIV-1 infection was associated with TLR9 polymorphisms. Because of its potential implications for intervention strategies and vaccine developments, additional epidemiological and experimental studies are needed to confirm this association.

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BACKGROUND: This study describes seasonality of congenital anomalies in Europe to provide a baseline against which to assess the impact of specific time varying exposures such as the H1N1 pandemic influenza, and to provide a comprehensive and recent picture of seasonality and its possible relation to etiologic factors. METHODS: Data on births conceived in 2000 to 2008 were extracted from 20 European Surveillance for Congenital Anomalies population-based congenital anomaly registries in 14 European countries. We performed Poisson regression analysis encompassing sine and cosine terms to investigate seasonality of 65,764 nonchromosomal and 12,682 chromosomal congenital anomalies covering 3.3 million births. Analysis was performed by estimated month of conception. Analyses were performed for 86 congenital anomaly subgroups, including a combined subgroup of congenital anomalies previously associated with influenza. RESULTS: We detected statistically significant seasonality in prevalence of anomalies previously associated with influenza, but the conception peak was in June (2.4% excess). We also detected seasonality in congenital cataract (April conceptions, 27%), hip dislocation and/or dysplasia (April, 12%), congenital hydronephrosis (July, 12%), urinary defects (July, 5%), and situs inversus (December, 36%), but not for nonchromosomal anomalies combined, chromosomal anomalies combined, or other anomalies analyzed. CONCLUSION: We have confirmed previously described seasonality for congenital cataract and hip dislocation and/or dysplasia, and found seasonality for congenital hydronephrosis and situs inversus which have not previously been studied. We did not find evidence of seasonality for several anomalies which had previously been found to be seasonal. Influenza does not appear to be an important factor in the seasonality of congenital anomalies.

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CONTEXT: Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS: Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

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Several recent studies have demonstrated differences in safety between different types of left-turn phasing—protected, permitted, and protected/permitted phasing. The issue in question is whether older and younger drivers are more affected by a particular type of left-turn phasing at high-speed signalized intersections and whether they are more likely to contribute to a left-turn related crash under a specific type of left-turn phasing. This study evaluated the impact of different types of left-turn phasing on older and younger drivers at high-speed signalized intersections in Iowa. High-speed signalized intersections were of interest since oncoming speeds and appropriate gaps may be more difficult to judge for older drivers and those with less experience. A total of 101 intersections from various urban locations in Iowa with at least one intersecting roadway with a posted speed limit of 45 mph or higher were evaluated. Left-turn related crashes from 2001 to 2003 were evaluated. Left-turn crash rate and severity for young drivers (14- to 24-year-old), middle-age drivers (25- to 64-year-old), and older drivers (65 years and older) were calculated. Poisson regression was used to analyze left-turn crash rates by age group and type of phasing. Overall, left-turn crash rates indicated that protected phasing is much safer than protected/permitted and permitted phasing. Protected/permitted phasing had the highest left-turn crash rates overall.

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Background: Visual analog scales (VAS) are used to assess readiness to changeconstructs, which are often considered critical for change.Objective: We studied whether 3 constructs -readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence inability to change- predict risk status 6 months later in 20 year-old men with either orboth of two behaviors: risky drinking and smoking. Methods: 577 participants in abrief intervention randomized trial were assessed at baseline and 6 months later onalcohol and tobacco consumption and with three 1-10 VAS (readiness, importance,confidence) for each behavior. For each behavior, we used one regression model foreach constructs. Models controlled for receipt of a brief intervention and used thelowest level (1-4) in each construct as the reference group (vs medium (5-7) and high(8-10) levels).Results: Among the 475 risky drinkers, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking were 4.0 (3.1), 2.8 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0).Readiness was not associated with being alcohol-risk free 6 months later (OR 1.3[0.7; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.8; 2.6] for medium and high readiness). High importance andhigh confidence were associated with being risk free (OR 0.9 [0.5; 1.8] and 2.9 [1.2;7.5] for medium and high importance; 2.1 [1.0;4.8] and 2.8 [1.5;5.6] for medium andhigh confidence). Among the 320 smokers, mean readiness, importance andconfidence to change smoking were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.6). Neitherreadiness nor importance were associated with being smoking free (OR 2.1 [0.9; 4.7]and 2.1 [0.8; 5.8] for medium and high readiness; 1.4 [0.6; 3.4] and 2.1 [0.8; 5.4] formedium and high importance). High confidence was associated with being smokingfree (OR 2.2 [0.8;6.6] and 3.4 [1.2;9.8] for medium and high confidence).Conclusions: For drinking and smoking, high confidence in ability to change wasassociated -with similar magnitude- with a favorable outcome. This points to thevalue of confidence as an important predictor of successful change.