Predicting diffusion of innovations with self-organisation and machine learning

The main subject of this master's thesis was predicting diffusion of innovations. The prediction was done in a special case: product has been available in some countries, and based on its diffusion in those countries the prediction is done for other countries. The prediction was based on finding similar countries with Self-Organizing Map~(SOM), using parameters of countries. Parameters included various economical and social key figures. SOM was optimised for different products using two different methods: (a) by adding diffusion information of products to the country parameters, and (b) by weighting the country parameters based on their importance for the diffusion of different products. A novel method using Differential Evolution (DE) was developed to solve the latter, highly non-linear optimisation problem. Results were fairly good. The prediction method seems to be on a solid theoretical foundation. The results based on country data were good. Instead, optimisation for different products did not generally offer clear benefit, but in some cases the improvement was clearly noticeable. The weights found for the parameters of the countries with the developed SOM optimisation method were interesting, and most of them could be explained by properties of the products.

Repeatability, correlation and path analysis of physical and chemical characteristics of peach fruits

This study aimed to determine the number of measurements necessary to evaluate physical and chemical characteristics of peach fruits, study the relationships between them and their direct and indirect effects on the content of ascorbic acid and total carotenoids. The characteristics skin and pulp color, fruit weight, suture, equatorial and polar diameters, firmness, soluble solids (SS), titratable acidity (TA), SS/TA ratio, ascorbic acid and total carotenoids were evaluated in 39 cultivars of peach and 3 cultivars of nectarine from the orchard of the Universidade Federal de Viçosa. The repeatability coefficient was estimated by ANOVA and CPCOR. Phenotypic correlation coefficients (rf) were estimated and, after the multicollinearity diagnostics, they were unfolded to direct and indirect effects of the explanatory variables on the response variable using path analysis. There was agreement on the magnitude of repeatability coefficients obtained by the two methods; however, they varied among the 14 characteristics. The highest correlations were found between FW, SD, ED and PD. Seven fruits are sufficient to evaluate the physical and chemical characteristics of peach with a correlation coefficient of 90%. The characteristics considered in the path diagrams (b* skin, hº skin, b* pulp, hº pulp, ED, PD, FIR, SS, SS/AT and TC) are not the main determinants of the ascorbic acid. The yellow hue of the pulp (hº pulp) has the potential to be used in indirect selection for total carotenoids.

Analysis of bulk and surface contributions in the neutron skin of nuclei

The neutron skin thickness of nuclei is a sensitive probe of the nuclear symmetry energy and has multiple implications for nuclear and astrophysical studies. However, precision measurements of this observable are difficult to obtain. The analysis of the experimental data may imply some assumptions about the bulk or surface nature of the formation of the neutron skin. Here we study the bulk or surface character of neutron skins of nuclei following from calculations with Gogny, Skyrme, and covariant nuclear mean-field interactions. These interactions are successful in describing nuclear charge radii and binding energies but predict different values for neutron skins. We perform the study by fitting two-parameter Fermi distributions to the calculated self-consistent neutron and proton densities. We note that the equivalent sharp radius is a more suitable reference quantity than the half-density radius parameter of the Fermi distributions to discern between the bulk and surface contributions in neutron skins. We present calculations for nuclei in the stability valley and for the isotopic chains of Sn and Pb.

Quantitative Analysis of Myelin and Axonal Remodeling in the Uninjured Motor Network After Stroke.

Contralesional brain connectivity plasticity was previously reported after stroke. This study aims at disentangling the biological mechanisms underlying connectivity plasticity in the uninjured motor network after an ischemic lesion. In particular, we measured generalized fractional anisotropy (GFA) and magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) to assess whether poststroke connectivity remodeling depends on axonal and/or myelin changes. Diffusion-spectrum imaging and magnetization transfer MRI at 3T were performed in 10 patients in acute phase, at 1 and 6 months after stroke, which was affecting motor cortical and/or subcortical areas. Ten age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers were scanned 1 month apart for longitudinal comparison. Clinical assessment was also performed in patients prior to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In the contralesional hemisphere, average measures and tract-based quantitative analysis of GFA and MTR were performed to assess axonal integrity and myelination along motor connections as well as their variations in time. Mean and tract-based measures of MTR and GFA showed significant changes in a number of contralesional motor connections, confirming both axonal and myelin plasticity in our cohort of patients. Moreover, density-derived features (peak height, standard deviation, and skewness) of GFA and MTR along the tracts showed additional correlation with clinical scores than mean values. These findings reveal the interplay between contralateral myelin and axonal remodeling after stroke.

Modeling and manufacturability assessment of bistable quantum-dot cells

We have investigated the behavior of bistable cells made up of four quantum dots and occupied by two electrons, in the presence of realistic confinement potentials produced by depletion gates on top of a GaAs/AlGaAs heterostructure. Such a cell represents the basic building block for logic architectures based on the concept of quantum cellular automata (QCA) and of ground state computation, which have been proposed as an alternative to traditional transistor-based logic circuits. We have focused on the robustness of the operation of such cells with respect to asymmetries derived from fabrication tolerances. We have developed a two-dimensional model for the calculation of the electron density in a driven cell in response to the polarization state of a driver cell. Our method is based on the one-shot configuration-interaction technique, adapted from molecular chemistry. From the results of our simulations, we conclude that an implementation of QCA logic based on simple ¿hole arrays¿ is not feasible, because of the extreme sensitivity to fabrication tolerances. As an alternative, we propose cells defined by multiple gates, where geometrical asymmetries can be compensated for by adjusting the bias voltages. Even though not immediately applicable to the implementation of logic gates and not suitable for large scale integration, the proposed cell layout should allow an experimental demonstration of a chain of QCA cells.

Labour market innovations and policy learning : report on Switzerland

This paper analyses learning and implementation of labour market reforms in Switzerland.

An analysis of protocols and publications suggested that most discontinuations of clinical trials were not based on preplanned interim analyses or stopping rules.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the frequency of interim analyses, stopping rules, and data safety and monitoring boards (DSMBs) in protocols of randomized controlled trials (RCTs); to examine these features across different reasons for trial discontinuation; and to identify discrepancies in reporting between protocols and publications. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used data from a cohort of RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by six research ethics committees in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. RESULTS: Of 894 RCT protocols, 289 prespecified interim analyses (32.3%), 153 stopping rules (17.1%), and 257 DSMBs (28.7%). Overall, 249 of 894 RCTs (27.9%) were prematurely discontinued; mostly due to reasons such as poor recruitment, administrative reasons, or unexpected harm. Forty-six of 249 RCTs (18.4%) were discontinued due to early benefit or futility; of those, 37 (80.4%) were stopped outside a formal interim analysis or stopping rule. Of 515 published RCTs, there were discrepancies between protocols and publications for interim analyses (21.1%), stopping rules (14.4%), and DSMBs (19.6%). CONCLUSION: Two-thirds of RCT protocols did not consider interim analyses, stopping rules, or DSMBs. Most RCTs discontinued for early benefit or futility were stopped without a prespecified mechanism. When assessing trial manuscripts, journals should require access to the protocol.

Genome-wide enrichment analysis between endometriosis and obesity-related traits reveals novel susceptibility loci.

Endometriosis is a chronic inflammatory condition in women that results in pelvic pain and subfertility, and has been associated with decreased body mass index (BMI). Genetic variants contributing to the heritable component have started to emerge from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), although the majority remain unknown. Unexpectedly, we observed an intergenic locus on 7p15.2 that was genome-wide significantly associated with both endometriosis and fat distribution (waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI; WHRadjBMI) in an independent meta-GWAS of European ancestry individuals. This led us to investigate the potential overlap in genetic variants underlying the aetiology of endometriosis, WHRadjBMI and BMI using GWAS data. Our analyses demonstrated significant enrichment of common variants between fat distribution and endometriosis (P = 3.7 × 10(-3)), which was stronger when we restricted the investigation to more severe (Stage B) cases (P = 4.5 × 10(-4)). However, no genetic enrichment was observed between endometriosis and BMI (P = 0.79). In addition to 7p15.2, we identify four more variants with statistically significant evidence of involvement in both endometriosis and WHRadjBMI (in/near KIFAP3, CAB39L, WNT4, GRB14); two of these, KIFAP3 and CAB39L, are novel associations for both traits. KIFAP3, WNT4 and 7p15.2 are associated with the WNT signalling pathway; formal pathway analysis confirmed a statistically significant (P = 6.41 × 10(-4)) overrepresentation of shared associations in developmental processes/WNT signalling between the two traits. Our results demonstrate an example of potential biological pleiotropy that was hitherto unknown, and represent an opportunity for functional follow-up of loci and further cross-phenotype comparisons to assess how fat distribution and endometriosis pathogenesis research fields can inform each other.

Headspace needle-trap analysis of priority volatile organic compounds from aqueous samples: application to the analysis of natural and waste waters

Combining headspace (HS) sampling with a needle-trap device (NTD) to determine priority volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in water samples results in improved sensitivity and efficiency when compared to conventional static HS sampling. A 22 gauge stainless steel, 51-mm needle packed with Tenax TA and Carboxen 1000 particles is used as the NTD. Three different HS-NTD sampling methodologies are evaluated and all give limits of detection for the target VOCs in the ng L−1 range. Active (purge-and-trap) HS-NTD sampling is found to give the best sensitivity but requires exhaustive control of the sampling conditions. The use of the NTD to collect the headspace gas sample results in a combined adsorption/desorption mechanism. The testing of different temperatures for the HS thermostating reveals a greater desorption effect when the sample is allowed to diffuse, whether passively or actively, through the sorbent particles. The limits of detection obtained in the simplest sampling methodology, static HS-NTD (5 mL aqueous sample in 20 mL HS vials, thermostating at 50 °C for 30 min with agitation), are sufficiently low as to permit its application to the analysis of 18 priority VOCs in natural and waste waters. In all cases compounds were detected below regulated levels

Analysis of resuspension and sedimentation processes of unaltered fish faeces using image analysis

Postprint (published version)

Precursor nanoscale modulations in ferromagnets: Modeling and thermodynamic characterization

Using a Ginzburg-Landau model for the magnetic degrees of freedom with coupling to disorder, we demonstrate through simulations the existence of stripelike magnetic precursors recently observed in Co-Ni-Al alloys above the Curie temperature. We characterize these magnetic modulations by means of the temperature dependence of local magnetization distribution, magnetized volume fraction, and magnetic susceptibility. We also obtain a temperature-disorder strength phase diagram in which a magnetic tweed phase exists in a small region between the paramagnetic and dipolar phases.

Quantitative analysis of phenol and alkylphenols in Brazilian coal tar

The main purpose of this work is the identification and quantification of phenolic compounds in coal tar samples from a ceramics factory in Cocal (SC), Brazil. The samples were subjected to preparative scale liquid chromatography, using Amberlyst A-27TM ion-exchange resin as stationary phase. The fractions obtained were classified as "acids" and "BN" (bases and neutrals). The identification and quantification of phenols, in the acid fraction, was made by gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Nearly twenty-five phenols were identified in the samples and nine of them were also quantified. The results showed that coal tar has large quantities of phenolic compounds of industrial interest.

GPRS/EDGE Session Tracing and Analysis in Abis and AGPRS Interfaces

Efficient problem solving in cellular networks is important when enhancing the network performance and liability. Analysis of calls and packet switched sessions in protocol level between the network elements is an important part of this process. They can provide very detailed information about error situations which otherwise would be difficult to recognise. In this thesis we seek solutions for monitoring GPRS/EDGE sessions in two specific interfaces simultaneously in such manner that all information important to the users will be provided in easily understandable form. This thesis focuses on Abis and AGPRS interfaces of GSM radio network and introduces a solution for managing the correlation between these interfaces by using signalling messages and common parameters as linking elements. ~: Finally this thesis presents an implementation of GPRS/EDGE session monitoring application for Abis and AGPRS interfaces and evaluates its benefits to the end users. Application is implemented as a part of Windows based 3G/GSM network analyser.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.