Aspects of Markov Chains and Particle Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Ethics and health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations

Although considerable attention has been given to ethical issues related to clinical research in developing countries, in particular related to HIV therapy, there has been limited focus on health systems research, despite its increasing importance in the light of current trends in development assistance. This paper examines ethical issues related to health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations, addressing both generic issues for developing countries and those issues specific to 'post'-conflict societies, citing examples from the author's Cambodian experience. It argues that the destruction of health infrastructure results in a loss of structures and processes that would otherwise protect prospective research subjects who are part of vulnerable populations. It identifies the growth of health systems research as part of a trend towards sectoral and programmatic development assistance, the emergence of 'knowledge generation' as a form of research linked to development, and the potential for conflict where multilateral and bilateral donors are both primary funders and users of health systems research. It also examines the position of the health system researcher in relation to the sponsors of this research, and the health system being analysed.

Evidence for dissociation between the perceptual and visuomotor systems in humans

When a visual stimulus is continuously moved behind a small stationary window, the window appears displaced in the direction of motion of the stimulus. In this study we showed that the magnitude of this illusion is dependent on (i) whether a perceptual or visuomotor task is used for judging the location of the window, (ii) the directional signature of the stimulus, and (iii) whether or not there is a significant delay between the end of the visual presentation and the initiation of the localization measure. Our stimulus was a drifting sinusoidal grating windowed in space by a stationary, two-dimensional, Gaussian envelope (σ=1 cycle of sinusoid). Localization measures were made following either a short (200 ms) or long (4.2 s) post-stimulus delay. The visuomotor localization error was up to three times greater than the perceptual error for a short delay. However, the visuomotor and perceptual localization measures were similar for a long delay. Our results provide evidence in support of the hypothesis that separate cortical pathways exist for visual perception and visually guided action and that delayed actions rely on stored perceptual information.

Integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for marketing strategy development:the hybridisation and its effectiveness

A hybrid approach for integrating group Delphi, fuzzy logic and expert systems for developing marketing strategies is proposed in this paper. Within this approach, the group Delphi method is employed to help groups of managers undertake SWOT analysis. Fuzzy logic is applied to fuzzify the results of SWOT analysis. Expert systems are utilised to formulate marketing strategies based upon the fuzzified strategic inputs. In addition, guidelines are also provided to help users link the hybrid approach with managerial judgement and intuition. The effectiveness of the hybrid approach has been validated with MBA and MA marketing students. It is concluded that the hybrid approach is more effective in terms of decision confidence, group consensus, helping to understand strategic factors, helping strategic thinking, and coupling analysis with judgement, etc.