Factors predicting prognosis and recurrence in patients with esophago-gastric adenocarcinoma and histopathological response with less than 10 % residual tumor

PURPOSE: Neoadjuvant treatment is an accepted standard approach for treating locally advanced esophago-gastric adenocarcinomas. Despite a response of the primary tumor, a significant percentage dies from tumor recurrence. The aim of this retrospective exploratory study from two academic centers was to identify predictors of survival and recurrence in histopathologically responding patients. METHODS: Two hundred thirty one patients with adenocarcinomas (esophagus: n = 185, stomach: n = 46, cT3/4, cN0/+, cM0) treated with preoperative chemotherapy (n = 212) or chemoradiotherapy (n = 19) followed by resection achieved a histopathological response (regression 1a: no residual tumor (n = 58), and regression 1b < 10 % residual tumor (n = 173)). RESULTS: The estimated median overall survival was 92.4 months (5-year survival, 56.6 %) for all patients. For patients with regression 1a, median survival is not reached (5-year survival, 71.6 %) compared to patients with regression 1b with 75.3 months median (5-year survival, 52.2 %) (p = 0.031). Patients with a regression 1a had lymph node metastases in 19.0 versus 33.7 % in regression 1b. The ypT-category (p < 0.001), the M-category (p = 0.005), and the type of treatment (p = 0.04) were found to be independent prognostic factors in R0-resected patients. The recurrence rate was 31.7 % (n = 66) (local, 39.4 %; peritoneal carcinomatosis, 25.7 %; distant metastases, 50 %). Recurrence was predicted by female gender (p = 0.013), ypT-category (p = 0.007), and M-category (p = 0.003) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Response of the primary tumor does not guarantee recurrence-free long-term survival, but histopathological complete responders have better prognosis compared to partial responders. Established prognostic factors strongly influence the outcome, which could, in the future, be used for stratification of adjuvant treatment approaches. Increasing the rate of histopathological complete responders is a valid endpoint for future clinical trials investigating new drugs.

Serum glucose levels for predicting death in patients admitted to hospital for community acquired pneumonia: prospective cohort study

To examine whether acute dysglycaemia predicts death in people admitted to hospital with community acquired pneumonia.

Falls and fractures in the elderly with sinus node disease: the impact of pacemaker implantation

Background. Falls and fractures in the elderly are among the leading causes of disability. We investigated whether pacemaker implantation prevents falls in patients with SND in a large cohort of patients. Methods. Patient demographics and medical history were collected prospectively. Fall history was retrospectively reconstituted from available medical records. The 10-year probability for major osteoporotic fractures was calculated retrospectively from available medical records using the Swiss fracture risk assessment tool FRAX-Switzerland. Results. During a mean observation period of 2.3 years after implantation, the rates of fallers and injured fallers with fracture were reduced to 15% and 6%, respectively. This corresponds to a relative reduction in the number of fallers of 75% (P < 0.001) and of injured fallers of 63% (P = 0.014) after pacemaker implantation. Similarly, the number of falls was reduced from 60 (48%) before pacemaker implantation to 22 (18%) thereafter (relative reduction 63%, P = 0.035) and the number of falls with injury from 22 (18%) to 7 (6%), which corresponds to a relative reduction of 67%, P = 0.013. Conclusion. In patients with SND, pacemaker implantation significantly reduces the number of patients experiencing falls, the total number of falls, and the risk for osteoporotic fractures.

Can falls risk prediction tools correctly identify fall-prone elderly rehabilitation inpatients? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Falls of elderly people may cause permanent disability or death. Particularly susceptible are elderly patients in rehabilitation hospitals. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify falls prediction tools available for assessing elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Methods and Findings We searched six electronic databases using comprehensive search strategies developed for each database. Estimates of sensitivity and specificity were plotted in ROC space graphs and pooled across studies. Our search identified three studies which assessed the prediction properties of falls prediction tools in a total of 754 elderly inpatients in rehabilitation hospitals. Only the STRATIFY tool was assessed in all three studies; the other identified tools (PJC-FRAT and DOWNTON) were assessed by a single study. For a STRATIFY cut-score of two, pooled sensitivity was 73% (95%CI 63 to 81%) and pooled specificity was 42% (95%CI 34 to 51%). An indirect comparison of the tools across studies indicated that the DOWNTON tool has the highest sensitivity (92%), while the PJC-FRAT offers the best balance between sensitivity and specificity (73% and 75%, respectively). All studies presented major methodological limitations. Conclusions We did not identify any tool which had an optimal balance between sensitivity and specificity, or which were clearly better than a simple clinical judgment of risk of falling. The limited number of identified studies with major methodological limitations impairs sound conclusions on the usefulness of falls risk prediction tools in geriatric rehabilitation hospitals.

Risk of falls and major bleeds in patients on oral anticoagulation therapy

The risk of falls is the most commonly cited reason for not providing oral anticoagulation, although the risk of bleeding associated with falls on oral anticoagulants is still debated. We aimed to evaluate whether patients on oral anticoagulation with high falls risk have an increased risk of major bleeding.

Modeling And Predicting The Performance Of Infiltrated Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Anodes

Fuel cells are a topic of high interest in the scientific community right now because of their ability to efficiently convert chemical energy into electrical energy. This thesis is focused on solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) because of their fuel flexibility, and is specifically concerned with the anode properties of SOFCs. The anodes are composed of a ceramic material (yttrium stabilized zirconia, or YSZ), and conducting material. Recent research has shown that an infiltrated anode may offer better performance at a lower cost. This thesis focuses on the creation of a model of an infiltrated anode that mimics the underlying physics of the production process. Using the model, several key parameters for anode performance are considered. These are the initial volume fraction of YSZ in the slurry before sintering, the final porosity of the composite anode after sintering, and the size of the YSZ and conducting particles in the composite. The performance measures of the anode, namely percolation threshold and effective conductivity, are analyzed as a function of these important input parameters. Simple two and three-dimensional percolation models are used to determine the conditions at which the full infiltrated anode would be investigated. These more simple models showed that the aspect ratio of the anode has no effect on the threshold or effective conductivity, and that cell sizes of 303 are needed to obtain accurate conductivity values. The full model of the infiltrated anode is able to predict the performance of the SOFC anodes and it can be seen that increasing the size of the YSZ decreases the percolation threshold and increases the effective conductivity at low conductor loadings. Similar trends are seen for a decrease in final porosity and a decrease in the initial volume fraction of YSZ.

IFPA Meeting 2011 workshop report I: Placenta: Predicting future health; roles of lipids in the growth and development of feto-placental unit; placental nutrient sensing; placental research to solve clinical problems--a translational approach

Workshops are an important part of the IFPA annual meeting as they allow for discussion of specialized topics. At IFPA meeting 2011 there were twelve themed workshops, four of which are summarized in this report. These workshops related to both basic science and clinical research into placental growth and nutrient sensing and were divided into 1) placenta: predicting future health; 2) roles of lipids in the growth and development of feto-placental unit; 3) placental nutrient sensing; 4) placental research to solve clinical problems: a translational approach.

Predicting spike timing of neocortical pyramidal neurons by simple threshold models

Neurons generate spikes reliably with millisecond precision if driven by a fluctuating current--is it then possible to predict the spike timing knowing the input? We determined parameters of an adapting threshold model using data recorded in vitro from 24 layer 5 pyramidal neurons from rat somatosensory cortex, stimulated intracellularly by a fluctuating current simulating synaptic bombardment in vivo. The model generates output spikes whenever the membrane voltage (a filtered version of the input current) reaches a dynamic threshold. We find that for input currents with large fluctuation amplitude, up to 75% of the spike times can be predicted with a precision of +/-2 ms. Some of the intrinsic neuronal unreliability can be accounted for by a noisy threshold mechanism. Our results suggest that, under random current injection into the soma, (i) neuronal behavior in the subthreshold regime can be well approximated by a simple linear filter; and (ii) most of the nonlinearities are captured by a simple threshold process.

Predicting and diagnosing abacavir and nevirapine drug hypersensitivity: from bedside to bench and back again

There is a growing discussion surrounding the issue of personalized approaches to drug prescription based on an individual's genetic makeup. This field of investigation has focused primarily on identifying genetic factors that influence drug metabolism and cellular disposition, thereby contributing to dose-dependent toxicities and/or variable drug efficacy. However, pharmacogenetic approaches have also proved valuable in predicting drug hypersensitivity reactions in selected patient populations, including HIV-infected patients receiving long-term antiretroviral therapy. In this instance, susceptibility has been strongly linked to genetic loci involved in antigen recognition and presentation to the immune system--most notably within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region--consistent with the notion that hypersensitivity reactions represent drug-specific immune responses that are largely dose independent. Here the authors describe their experiences with the development of pharmacogenetic approaches to hypersensitivity reactions associated with abacavir and nevirapine, two commonly prescribed antiretroviral drugs. It is demonstrated that prospective screening tests to identify and exclude individuals with a certain genetic makeup may be largely successful in decreasing or eliminating incidence of these adverse drug reactions in certain populations. This review also explores the broader implications of these findings.

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

Predicting perceived vulnerability for breast cancer among women with an average breast cancer risk

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the present study was to investigate predictors of perceived vulnerability for breast cancer in women with an average risk for breast cancer. On the basis of empirical findings that suggested which variables might be associated with perceived vulnerability for breast cancer, we investigated whether knowledge of breast cancer risk factors, cancer worry, intrusions about breast cancer, optimism about not getting cancer and perceived health status have a predictive value for perceived breast cancer vulnerability. DESIGN: In a 3-step approach, we recruited 292 women from the general public in Germany who had neither a family history of breast cancer nor breast cancer themselves. After receiving an initial informational letter about study objectives, the women were interviewed by telephone and then asked to fill in a self-administered questionnaire. METHODS: We used structural equation modelling and hypothesized that each of the included variables has a direct influence on perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. RESULTS: We found a valid model with acceptable fit indices. Optimism about not getting cancer, intrusions about breast cancer and women's perceived health status explained 32% of the variance of perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. Cancer worry and knowledge about breast cancer did not influence perceived vulnerability for breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Perceived vulnerability for breast cancer is associated with health-related variables more than with knowledge about breast cancer risk factors.