Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Replenish the source within: Rescuing tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes by double checkpoint blockade.

We have recently reported that the PD-1 and CTLA4 signaling pathways are active in both effector and regulatory T cells, causing profound immune dysfunctions in the tumor microenvironment. In line with this notion, the dual blockade of PD-1- and CTLA4-conveyed signals may exert robust therapeutic effects. Here, we discuss the mechanisms possibly underlying such a synergic interaction.

Implementación de aplicaciones y herramientas de post-procesamiento de imágenes médicas vía web

Con la creciente generación de resonancias magnéticas, los servicios de radiología necesitan aplicaciones que les faciliten el trabajo de acceso remoto a los datos y a las herramientas que utilicen para la extracción de datos para realizar sus diagnósticos. El objetivo de este proyecto es el de estudiar e integrar en la plataforma web del grupo de Imagen Médica del PIC llamada PICNIC (PIC NeuroImaging Center) un conjunto de aplicaciones para el estudio y procesamiento de neuroimagen con la implementación de herramientas software en la plataforma grid del PIC.

Metabolic Post-feeding Changes in Fat Body and Hemolymph of Dipetalogaster maximus (Hemiptera:Reduviidae)

Lipids and glycogen in fat body as well as the modifications in the wet weight of this organ were evaluated in an unfed insect, Dipetalogaster maximus, on day 5 after adult ecdysis (time 0) and during a 30-day period after ingestion of blood meal. Total lipids, high density lipophorin (HDLp), carbohydrates, total proteins and uric acid were determined in the hemolymph during the same period. Fat body wet weight was maximum on day 10 post-feeding and represented on day 30 only 42% of the maximum weight. Lipids stored in the fat body increased up to day 15 reaching 24% of the total weight of tissue. Glycogen was maximum on day 20, representing approximately 3% of the fat body weight. HDLp represented at all times between 17-24% of the total proteins, whose levels ranged between 35 and 47 mg/ml. Uric acid showed at 20, 25 and 30 days similar levels and significantly higher than the ones shown at days 10 and 15. Hemolymphatic lipids fluctuated during starvation between 3-4.4 mg/ml and carbohydrates showed a maximum on day 15 after a blood meal, decreasing up to 0.26 mg/ml on day 25. The above results suggest that during physiological events such as starvation, the availability of nutrients is affected, involving principally the fat body reserves

Active mitral ring for post-surgical remote correction of residual mitral regurgitation on the beating heart.

OBJECTIVES: Residual mitral regurgitation after valve repair worsens patients' clinical outcome. Postimplant adjustable mitral rings potentially address this issue, allowing the reshaping of the annulus on the beating heart under echocardiography control. We developed an original mitral ring allowing valve geometry remodelling after the implantation and designed an animal study to assess device effectiveness in correcting residual mitral regurgitation. METHODS: The device consists of two concentric rings: one internal and flexible, sutured to the mitral annulus and a second external and rigid. A third conic element slides between the two rings, modifying the shape of the flexible ring. This sliding element is remotely activated with a rotating tool. Animal model: in adult swine, under cardio pulmonary bypass and cardiac arrest, we shortened the primary chordae of P2 segment to reproduce Type III regurgitation and implanted the active ring. We used intracardiac ultrasound to assess mitral regurgitation and the efficacy of the active ring to correct it. RESULTS: Severe mitral regurgitation (3+ and 4+) was induced in eight animals, 54 ± 6 kg in weight. Vena contracta width decreased from 0.8 ± 0.2 to 0.1 cm; proximal isovelocity surface area radius decreased from 0.8 ± 0.2 to 0.1 cm and effective regurgitant orifice area decreased from 0.50 ± 0.1 to 0.1 ± 0.1 cm(2). Six animals had a reversal of systolic pulmonary flow that normalized following the activation of the device. All corrections were reversible. CONCLUSIONS: Postimplant adjustable mitral ring corrects severe mitral regurgitation through the reversible modification of the annulus geometry on the beating heart. It addresses the frequent and morbid issue of recurrent mitral valve regurgitation.

Non-characteristic half-lives in radioactive decay

Half-lives of radionuclides span more than 50 orders of magnitude. We characterize the probability distribution of this broad-range data set at the same time that explore a method for fitting power-laws and testing goodness-of-fit. It is found that the procedure proposed recently by Clauset et al. [SIAM Rev. 51, 661 (2009)] does not perform well as it rejects the power-law hypothesis even for power-law synthetic data. In contrast, we establish the existence of a power-law exponent with a value around 1.1 for the half-life density, which can be explained by the sharp relationship between decay rate and released energy, for different disintegration types. For the case of alpha emission, this relationship constitutes an original mechanism of power-law generation.

Does history of falling predict length of stay in post-scute geriatric rehabilitation?

Objectives: To investigate the associations between falls before¦hospital admission, falls during hospitalization, and length of stay in¦elderly people admitted to post-acute geriatric rehabilitation.¦Method: History of falling in the previous 12 months before admission¦was recorded among 249 older persons (mean age 82.3 ± 7.4 years,¦69.1% women) consecutively admitted to post-acute rehabilitation. Data¦on medical, functional and cognitive status were collected upon¦admission. Falls during hospitalization and length of stay were recorded¦at discharge.¦Results: Overall, 92 (40.4%) patients reported no fall in the 12 months¦before admission; 63(27.6%) reported 1 fall, and 73 (32.0%) reported¦multiple falls. Previous falls occurrence (one or more falls) was¦significantly associated with in-stay falls (19.9% of previous fallers fell¦during the stay vs 7.6% in patients without history of falling, P = .01),¦and with a longer length of stay (22.4 ± 10.1 days vs 27.1 ± 14.3 days,¦P = .01). In multivariate robust regression controlling for gender, age,¦functional and cognitive status, history of falling remained significantly¦associated with longer rehabilitation stay (2.8 days more than non¦fallers in single fallers, p = .05, and 3.3 days in multiple fallers, p = .0.1).¦Conclusion: History of falling in the 12 months prior to post acute¦geriatric rehabilitation is independently associated with a longer¦rehabilitation length of stay. Previous fallers also have an increased risk¦of falling during rehabilitation stay. This suggests that hospital fall¦prevention measures should particularly target these high risk patients.

Health services utilization associated with cognitive impairment and dementia in older patients undergoing post-acute rehabilitation.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between levels of cognitive impairment and health services utilization in older patients undergoing post-acute rehabilitation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Post-acute rehabilitation facility. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N = 1764) aged 70 years and older admitted over 3 years. MEASUREMENTS: Sociodemographic, medical, and functional data were collected upon admission. Based on discharge diagnoses, patients were classified as cognitively intact, cognitively impaired with no dementia (CIND), and demented. RESULTS: Dementia and CIND were diagnosed in 425 (24.1%) and 301 (17.1%) patients, respectively. Gradients from cognitively intact to cognitively impaired to demented patients were observed in median length of stay (19, 22, and 25 days, P < .001), and institutionalization rates at discharge (4.2%, 7.6%, and 28.8%, P < .001). Among patients discharged home, similar gradients were observed in utilization of home care (68.2%, 79.7%, and 83.3%, P < .001) and day care (3.1%, 7.1%, and 14.3%, P < .001). After adjustment, compared with cognitively intact patients, only those with dementia still had longer stays (+2.7 days) and increased odds of institutionalization (adjOR 6.1, 95% CI 4.0-9.3, P < .001). Among patients discharged home, use of home and day care remained higher in those with dementia (adjOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7, P = .005, and adjOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7, P = .005, respectively), while CIND patients had higher odds of using home care (adjOR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.4, P = .028). CONCLUSION: Among patients undergoing post-acute rehabilitation, those with dementia had increased use of both institutional and community care, whereas those with CIND had increased use of home care services only. Future studies should investigate specific strategies susceptible to reduce the related burden on health care systems.

Extent of Hypoattenuation On CT Angiography Source Images In Basilar Artery Occlusion: Prognostic Accuracy Of Posterior Circulation ASPECTS And The Pons-midbrain Score In The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study

Background: The posterior circulation Acute Stroke Prognosis Early CT Score (pc-ASPECTS) and the combined Pons-midbrain score quantify the extent of early ischemic changes in the posterior circulation. We compared the prognostic accuracy of both scores if applied to CT angiography (CTA) source images (CTA-SI) of patients in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS).Methods: BASICS was a prospective, observational, multi-centre, registry of consecutive patients who presented with acute symptomatic basilar artery occlusion (BAO). Functional outcome was assessed at 1 month. We applied pc-ASPECTS and the combined Pons-midbrain score to CTA-SI by 3-reader-consensus. Readers were blinded to clinical data. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis, adjusting for thrombolysis, baseline NIHSS score and age, and used the output to derive ROC curves to compare the ability of both scores to discriminate patients with favourable (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] scores 0-3) from patients with unfavourable (mRS scores 4-6) functional outcome.Results: We reviewed CTAs of 158 patients (64% men, mean age 65 _ 15 years, median NIHSS score 25 [0-38], median GCS score 7 [3-15], median onset-to-CTA time 234 minutes [11-7380]). At 1 month, 40 (25%) patients had a favourable outcome, 49 (31%) had an unfavourable outcome (mRS score 4-5) and 69 (44%) were deceased. Both techniques of assessing CTA-SI hypoattenuation in the posterior circulation showed equally good discriminative value in predicting final outcome (C-statistics; area under ROC curve 0.74 versus 0.75, respectively; p_0.37). Pc-ASPECTS dichotomized at _6 versus _6 was an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome (RR _ 2.2; CI95 1.1-4.7; p _ 0.034).Conclusion: Compared to the combined Pons-midbrain score, the pc-ASPECTS score has similar prognostic accuracy to identify patients with a favourable functional outcome in BASICS. Dichotomized pc-ASPECTS (_6 versus _6) is an independent predictor of favourable functional outcome in this population. Author Disclosures: V. Puetz: None. A. Khomenko: None. M.D. Hill: None. I. Dzialowski: None. P. Michel: None. C. Weimar: None. C.A.C. Wijman: None. H. Mattle: None. K. Muir: None. T. Pfefferkorn: None. D. Tanne: None. S. Engelter: None. K. Szabo: None. A. Algra: None. A.M. Demchuk: None. W.J. Schonewille: None.

Prise en charge de l'hémorragie du post-partum [Management of postpartum haemorrhage].

Today, postpartum hemorrhage remains a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality. Medical treatment, various surgical procedures and/or uterine artery embolisation have considerably reduced the risk of hysterectomy. It is important to identify the different risk factors of hemorrhage after delivery and to take the precautions to avoid it. A clear strategy defined by the obstetrical team is essential to decrease the delay in the management of this complication in order to increase the chances of a successful treatment.