Executive Stock Options: Exercise Policy and Market Reaction

In this paper I investigate the exercise policy, and the market reaction to that, of the executive stock option holders in Finland. The empirical tests are conducted with aggregated firm level data from 34 firms and 41 stock option programs. I find some evidence of an inverse relation between the exercise intensity of the options holders and the future abnormal return of the company share price. This finding is supported by the view that information about future company prospect seems to be the only theoretical attribute that could delay the exercise of the options. Moreover, a high concentration of exercises in the beginning of the exercise window is predicted and the market is expected to react to deviations from this. The empirical findings however show that the market does not react homogenously to the information revealed by the late exercises.

Real Estate Investment and Uncertainty: Econometric Modelling using Finnish Data

The purpose of this paper is to test for the effect of uncertainty in a model of real estate investment in Finland during the hihhly cyclical period of 1975 to 1998. We use two alternative measures of uncertainty. The first measure is the volatility of stock market returns and the second measure is the heterogeneity in the answers of the quarterly business survey of the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers. The econometric analysis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model and the paper applies a 'general-to-specific' modelling approach. We find that the measure of heterogeneity is significant in the model, but the volatility of stock market returns is not. The empirical results give some evidence of an uncertainty-induced threshold slowing down real estate investment in Finland.

Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

Share Repurchases, Dividends, and Executive Options

This paper reports empirical results on the determinants of the authorization decision for share repurchases and dividends in Finland. We use a data set with precise data on share repurchases as well as characteristics for the option programs. Contrary to the U.S., we use a data set where 41% of the options are dividend protected, which allows us to separate between the "option funding" and "substitution / managerial wealth" hypothesis for the choice of the distribution method. We find that foreign ownership is the main determinant for share repurchases in Finland and attribute this relationship to tax factors. We also find evidence in support of both the signaling and agency cost hypotheses for cash distributions, especially in the case of share repurchases. Finally, we find a significant difference between companies with and without dividend protected options. When options are dividend protected, the relationship between dividend distributions and the scope of the options program turns to a significantly positive one instead of the negative one documented on U.S. data. This gives some support for the substitution / managerial wealth hypothesis as a determinant for the choice of the distribution method.

Evaluating the Predictability of the Volatility Smile Using Return Distributions

In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

The Pricing of American Put Options on Stock with Dividends

Pricing American put options on dividend-paying stocks has largely been ignored in the option pricing literature because the problem is mathematically complex and valuation usually resorts to computationally expensive and impractical pricing applications. This paper computed a simulation study, using two different approximation methods for the valuation of American put options on a stock with known discrete dividend payments. This to find out if there were pricing errors and to find out which could be the most usable method for practical users. The option pricing models used in the study was the dividend approximation by Blomeyer (1986) and the one by Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1988). The study showed that the approximation method by Blomeyer worked satisfactory for most situations, but some errors occur for longer times to the dividend payment, for smaller dividends and for in-the-money options. The approximation method by Barone-Adesi and Whaley worked well for in-the-money options and at-the-money options, but had serious pricing errors for out-of-the-money options. The conclusion of the study is that a combination of the both methods might be preferable to any single model.

Volatility Smile Dynamics in Scenario Analysis

The objective of this paper is to suggest a method that accounts for the impact of the volatility smile dynamics when performing scenario analysis for a portfolio consisting of vanilla options. As the volatility smile is documented to change at least with the level of implied at-the-money volatility, a suitable model is here included in the calculation process of the simulated market scenarios. By constructing simple portfolios of index options and comparing the ex ante risk exposure measured using different pricing methods to realized market values, ex post, the improvements of the incorporation of the model are monitored. The analyzed examples in the study generate results that statistically support that the most accurate scenarios are those calculated using the model accounting for the dynamics of the smile. Thus, we show that the differences emanating from the volatility smile are apparent and should be accounted for and that the methodology presented herein is one suitable alternative for doing so.

Effects of capillary waves on the thickness of wetting layers

The free energy contribution of capillary waves is calculated to show its significant dependence on the thickness of the liquid layer, when the thickness is very small. It is shown that these oscillations can play an important role in determining the thermodynamic stability of a wetting layer, close to the critical point of a binary liquid mixture in the case of both short range and long range forces. In particular, the thickness of the wetting layer goes to zero as the temperature T approaches Tc.

Development of twist in an emerging magnetic flux tube by poloidal field accretion

Aims. Following an earlier proposal for the origin of twist in the magnetic fields of solar active regions, we model the penetration of a wrapped up background poloidal field into a toroidal magnetic flux tube rising through the solar convective zone.Methods. The rise of the straight, cylindrical flux tube is followed by numerically solving the induction equation in a comoving Lagrangian frame, while an external poloidal magnetic field is assumed to be radially advected onto the tube with a speed corresponding to the rise velocity.Results. One prediction of our model is the existence of a ring of reverse current helicity on the periphery of active regions. On the other hand, the amplitude of the resulting twist depends sensitively on the assumed structure ( diffuse vs. concentrated/intermittent) of the active region magnetic field right before its emergence, and on the assumed vertical profile of the poloidal field. Nevertheless, in the model with the most plausible choice of assumptions a mean twist comparable to the observations results.Conclusions. Our results indicate that the contribution of this mechanism to the twist can be quite significant, and under favourable circumstances it can potentially account for most of the current helicity observed in active regions.

Excimer laser refractive surgery : corneal wound healing and clinical results

Although the first procedure in a seeing human eye using excimer laser was reported in 1988 (McDonald et al. 1989, O'Connor et al. 2006) just three studies (Kymionis et al. 2007, O'Connor et al. 2006, Rajan et al. 2004) with a follow-up over ten years had been published when this thesis was started. The present thesis aims to investigate 1) the long-term outcomes of excimer laser refractive surgery performed for myopia and/or astigmatism by photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and laser-in situ- keratomileusis (LASIK), 2) the possible differences in postoperative outcomes and complications when moderate-to-high astigmatism is treated with PRK or LASIK, 3) the presence of irregular astigmatism that depend exclusively on the corneal epithelium, and 4) the role of corneal nerve recovery in corneal wound healing in PRK enhancement. Our results revealed that in long-term the number of eyes that achieved uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA)≤0.0 and ≤0.5 (logMAR) was higher after PRK than after LASIK. Postoperative stability was slightly better after PRK than after LASIK. In LASIK treated eyes the incidence of myopic regression was more pronounced when the intended correction was over >6.0 D and in patients aged <30 years.Yet the intended corrections in our study were higher for LASIK than for PRK eyes. No differences were found in percentages of eyes with best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) or loss of two or more lines of visual acuity between PRK and LASIK in the long-term. The postoperative long-term outcomes of PRK with two different delivery systems broad beam and scanning laser were compared and revealed no differences. Postoperative outcomes of moderate-to-high astigmatism yielded better results in terms of UCVA and less compromise or loss of two more lines of BCVA after LASIK that after PRK.Similar stability for both procedures was revealed. Vector analysis showed that LASIK outcomes tended to be more accurate than PRK outcomes, yet no statistically differences were found. Irregular astigmatism secondary to recurrent corneal erosion due to map-dot-fingerprint was successfully treated with phototherapeutic keratectomy (PTK). Preoperative videokeratographies (VK) showed irregular astigmatism. However, postoperatively, all eyes showed a regular pattern. No correlation was found between pre- and postoperative VK patterns. Postoperative outcomes of late PRK in eyes originally subjected to LASIK showed that all (7/7) eyes achieved UCVA ≤0.5 at last follow-up (range 3 — 11 months), and no eye lost lines of BCVA. Postoperatively all eyes developed and initial mild haze (0.5 — 1) into the first month. Yet, at last follow-up 5/7 eyes showed a haze of 0.5 and this was no longer evident in 2/7 eyes. Based on these results, we demonstrated that the long-term outcomes after PRK and LASIK were safe and efficient, with similar stability for both procedures. The PRK outcomes were similar when treated by broad-beam or scanning slit laser. LASIK was better than PRK to correct moderate-to-high astigmatism, yet both procedures showed a tendency of undercorrection. Irregular astigmatism was proven to be able to depend exclusively from the corneal epithelium. If this kind of astigmatism is present in the cornea and a customized PRK/LASIK correction is done based on wavefront measurements an irregular astigmatism may be produced rather than treated. Corneal sensory nerve recovery should have an important role in the modulation of the corneal wound healing and post-operative anterior stromal scarring. PRK enhancement may be an option in eyes with previous LASIK after a sufficient time interval that in at least 2 years.

On The Ground State Properties Of The +/-J Ising Model

In the combinatorial method or Grassmann algebra formalism the ground state properties of the f J Ising model can be expressed in terms of the behaviour of the eigenvectors of a matrix. It is shown that a transition from localized to extended eigenvectors signals the breakdown of ferromagnetic rigidity.

Structure, stoichiometry and spectroscopy of oxide superconductors

In the new oxide superconductors, structure and oxygen stoichiometry play the most crucial role. Thus, all the high-temperature oxide superconductors are orthorhombic perovskites with low-dimensional features. Oxygen stoichiometry in YBa2Cu3O7-δ has an important bearing on the structure as well as superconductivity. This is equally true in the La3-xBa3+xCu 6O14+δ system of which only the 123 oxide (x = 1) with the orthorhombic structure shows high Tc. Orthorhombicity though not essential, is generally found ; it is necessary for the formation of twins. The nature of oxygen and copper in the cuprates has been examined by electron spectroscopy. Copper in these cuprates is only in 1 + and 2 + states. It seems likely that oxygen holes are responsible for superconductivity of the cuprates as well as Ba(Bi, Pb)O3. High Tc superconductivity is also found in oxides of the Bi-(Ca, Sr)-Cu-O and related oxides possessing Cu-O sheets.

Talouskäsitysten vaikutus hallituksen suosioon Puolassa 2006–2007

Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan äänestäjien talouskäsitysten vaikutusta hallituksen suosioon Puolassa vuosina 2006 ja 2007. Tutkimusasetelma juontaa juurensa poliittisten suhdannevaihteluiden teoriaan, jonka mukaan poliitikot pyrkivät manipuloimaan taloutta vaalien alla tullakseen uudelleen valituiksi. Vastuullisuushypoteesin mukaan äänestäjät palkitsevat poliitikot hyvästä taloustilanteesta. Näin ollen mikäli äänestäjät ovat tyytyväisiä talouteen he äänestävät hallitusta. Mikäli eivät, he äänestävät oppositiota. Miten äänestäjät sitten tekevät arvionsa taloudesta? Tutkielmassa selvitetään vaikuttiko äänestäjien mielipiteisiin käsitys nykyisestä vai tulevaisuuden taloustilanteesta. Käsitys nykyisestä taloustilanteesta perustuu havaintoihin jo toteutuneesta talouspolitiikasta. Tätä käsitystä kutsutaan retrospektiiviseksi näkemykseksi. Prospektiiviset talousnäkemykset koostuvat näkemyksestä ja odotuksista talouden tulevasta tilasta ja uskosta hallituksen kykyyn tarjota paras vaihtoehto suotuisalle talouskehitykselle. Aikaulottuvuuden lisäksi tutkielmassa testataan, vaikuttaako äänestäjiin enemmän heidän oma taloustilanteensa vai näkemys yleisestä talouden tilanteesta. Mikäli hallituksen suosio perustuu näkemyksiin henkilökohtaisen talouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät egotrooppisia. Mikäli kannatuspäätös perustuu näkemykseen kansantalouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät puolestaan sosiotrooppisia. Aineistona tutkielmassa käytetään uusinta saatavilla olevaa Puolan mielipidetiedustelun (Centrum Badania Opinii Publicznej) keräämää kyselyaineistoa vuosilta 2006 ja 2007. Tutkielmassa on yhdistetty kyselyaineistot 22:n kuukauden ajalta. Aineistoa on analysoitu logistisen regressioanalyysin menetelmin. Tutkielman perusteella talousnäkemyksistä suurin vaikutus hallituksen suosioon on äänestäjien näkemyksillä kansantalouden tulevaisuuden tilasta. Henkilökohtaisen talouden osalta positiiviset tulevaisuudennäkymät vaikuttavat positiivisesti myös hallituksen kannatukseen. Retrospektiivinen arvio henkilökohtaisesta taloudesta toimii kuitenkin teorian vastaisesti; oman taloudellisen tilanteen hyväksi arvioineiden todennäköisyys kannatta hallitusta oli pienempää kuin niillä, jotka arvioivat oman taloustilanteensa huonoksi. Kontrollimuuttujiksi valittiin joukko aiemmassa tutkimuksessa äänestyskäyttäytymiseen Puolassa vaikuttaneita tekijöitä. Näitä olivat ikä, sukupuoli, koulutus, asuinpaikka, näkemys työllisyystilanteesta, ideologinen sijoittuminen oikeisto–vasemmisto-akselilla sekä uskonnollisuus. Kontrollimuuttujista merkitseviksi osoittautuivat uskonnollisuus, oikeisto–vasemmisto-ideologia, koulutus, asuinpaikka sekä ikä. Kun edellä mainitut taustamuuttujat on kontrolloitu, taloustekijät selittävät noin viidesosan hallituksen kannatuksen todennäköisyyden vaihtelusta.

Dielectric Properties of Epoxy-Al2O3 Nanocomposite System for Packaging Applications

In recent times, there has been an ever-growing need for polymer-based multifunctional materials for electronic packaging applications. In this direction, epoxy-Al2O3 nanocomposites at low filler loadings can provide an excellent material option, especially from the point of view of their dielectric properties. This paper reports the dielectric characteristics for such a system, results of which are observed to be interesting, unique, and advantageous as compared to traditionally used microcomposite systems. Nanocomposites are found to display lower values of permittivity/tan delta over a wide frequency range as compared to that of unfilled epoxy. This surprising observation has been attributed to the interaction between the epoxy chains and the nanoparticles, and in this paper this phenomenon is analyzed using a dual layer interface model reported for polymer nanocomposites. As for the other dielectric properties associated with the nanocomposites, the nano-filler loading seems to have a significant effect. The dc resistivity and ac dielectric strength of the nanocomposites were observed to be lower than that of the unfilled epoxy system at the investigated filler loadings, whereas the electrical discharge resistant properties showed a significant enhancement. Further analysis of the results obtained in this paper shows that the morphology of the interface region and its characteristics decide the observed interesting dielectric behaviors.

Polymeereillä stabiloitu amorfinen formulaatio

Nowadays growing number of new active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) have large molecular weight and are hydrophobic. The energy of their crystal lattice is bigger and polarity has decreased. This leads to weakened solubility and dissolution rate of the drug. These properties can be enhanced for example by amorphization. Amorphous form has the best dissolution rate in the solid state. In the amorphous form drug molecules are randomly arranged, so the energy required to dissolve molecules is lower compared to the crystalline counterpart. The disadvantage of amorphous form is that it is unstable. Amorphous form tends to crystallize. Stability of amorphous form can be enhanced by adding an adjuvant to drug product. Adjuvant is usually a polymer. Polymers prevent crystallization both by forming bonds with API molecules and by steric hindrance. The key thing in stabilizing amorphous form is good miscibility between API and polymer. They have to be mixed in a molecular level so that the polymer is able to prevent crystallization. The aim of this work was to study miscibility of drug and polymer and stability of their dispersion with different analytical methods. Amorphous dispersions were made by rotary evaporator and freeze dryer. Amorphicity was confirmed with X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) right after preparation. Itraconazole and theophylline were the chosen molecules to be stabilized. Itraconazole was expected to be easier and theophylline more difficult to stabilize. Itraconazole was stabilized with HPMC and theophylline was stabilized with PVP. Miscibility was studied with XRPD and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). In addition it was studied with polarized light microscope if miscibility was possible to see visually. Dispersions were kept in stressed conditions and the crystallization was analyzed with XRPD. Stability was also examined with isothermal microcalorimetry (IMC). The dispersion of itraconazole and theophylline 40/60 (w/w) was completely miscible. It was proved by linear combination of XRPD results and single glass transition temperature in DSC. Homogenic well mixed film was observed with light microscope. Phase separation was observed with other compositions. Dispersions of theophylline and PVP mixed only partly. Stability of itraconazole dispersions were better than theophylline dispersions which were mixed poorer. So miscibility was important thing considering stability. The results from isothermal microcalorimetry were similar to results from conventional stability studies. Complementary analytical methods should be used when studying miscibility so that the results are more reliable. Light microscope is one method in addition to mostly used XRPD and DSC. Analyzing light microscope photos is quite subjective but it gives an idea of miscibility. Isothermal microcalorimetry can be one option for conventional stability studies. If right conditions can be made where the crystallization is not too fast, it may be possible to predict stability with isothermal microcalorimetry.