The effects of international politics on oil-exporting developing countries

International politics affects oil trade. But does it affect the oil-exporting developing countries more? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to changes in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To the extent that developing countries have higher hold-up risks because of their weaker institutions, the political effect on oil trade should be more significant in the developing world. We find that oil import decisions are indeed more elastic when firms import from developing countries, although the reverse is true in the short run. Our results suggest that international politics can affect oil revenue and hence long-term development in the developing world.

Improved ore processing assessed by digital image análisis of the ores: a key to the sustainable development of the Iberian Pyrite Belt

Mining in the Iberian Pyrite Belt (IPB), the biggest VMS metallogenetic province known in the world to date, has to face a deep crisis in spite of the huge reserves still known after ≈5 000 years of production. This is due to several factors, as the difficult processing of complex Cu-Pb-Zn-Ag- Au ores, the exhaustion of the oxidation zone orebodies (the richest for gold, in gossan), the scarce demand for sulphuric acid in the world market, and harder environmental regulations. Of these factors, only the first and the last mentioned can be addressed by local ore geologists. A reactivation of mining can therefore only be achieved by an improved and more efficient ore processing, under the constraint of strict environmental controls. Digital image analysis of the ores, coupled to reflected light microscopy, provides a quantified and reliable mineralogical and textural characterization of the ores. The automation of the procedure for the first time furnishes the process engineers with real-time information, to improve the process and to preclude or control pollution; it can be applied to metallurgical tailings as well. This is shown by some examples of the IPB.

Parallelizing irregular and pointer-based computations automatically: perspectives from logic and constraint programming

Irregular computations pose sorne of the most interesting and challenging problems in automatic parallelization. Irregularity appears in certain kinds of numerical problems and is pervasive in symbolic applications. Such computations often use dynamic data structures, which make heavy use of pointers. This complicates all the steps of a parallelizing compiler, from independence detection to task partitioning and placement. Starting in the mid 80s there has been significant progress in the development of parallelizing compilers for logic pro­gramming (and more recently, constraint programming) resulting in quite capable paralle­lizers. The typical applications of these paradigms frequently involve irregular computations, and make heavy use of dynamic data structures with pointers, since logical variables represent in practice a well-behaved form of pointers. This arguably makes the techniques used in these compilers potentially interesting. In this paper, we introduce in a tutoríal way, sorne of the problems faced by parallelizing compilers for logic and constraint programs and provide pointers to sorne of the significant progress made in the area. In particular, this work has resulted in a series of achievements in the areas of inter-procedural pointer aliasing analysis for independence detection, cost models and cost analysis, cactus-stack memory management, techniques for managing speculative and irregular computations through task granularity control and dynamic task allocation such as work-stealing schedulers), etc.

Some challenges for constraint programming

We propose a number of challenges for future constraint programming systems, including improvements in implementation technology (using global analysis based optimization and parallelism), debugging facilities, and the extensión of the application domain to distributed, global programming. We also briefly discuss how we are exploring techniques to meet these challenges in the context of the development of the CIAO constraint logic programming system.

Abstract verification and debugging of constraint logic programs

The technique of Abstract Interpretation [13] has allowed the development of sophisticated program analyses which are provably correct and practical. The semantic approximations produced by such analyses have been traditionally applied to optimization during program compilation. However, recently, novel and promising applications of semantic approximations have been proposed in the more general context of program verification and debugging [3],[10],[7].

Automatic parallelization of irregular and pointer-based computations: perspectives from logic and constraint programming

Irregular computations pose some of the most interesting and challenging problems in automatic parallelization. Irregularity appears in certain kinds of numerical problems and is pervasive in symbolic applications. Such computations often use dynamic data structures which make heavy use of pointers. This complicates all the steps of a parallelizing compiler, from independence detection to task partitioning and placement. In the past decade there has been significant progress in the development of parallelizing compilers for logic programming and, more recently, constraint programming. The typical applications of these paradigms frequently involve irregular computations, which arguably makes the techniques used in these compilers potentially interesting. In this paper we introduce in a tutorial way some of the problems faced by parallelizing compilers for logic and constraint programs. These include the need for inter-procedural pointer aliasing analysis for independence detection and having to manage speculative and irregular computations through task granularity control and dynamic task allocation. We also provide pointers to some of the progress made in these áreas. In the associated talk we demónstrate representatives of several generations of these parallelizing compilers.

An assertion language for constraint logic programs

In an advanced program development environment, such as that discussed in the introduction of this book, several tools may coexist which handle both the program and information on the program in different ways. Also, these tools may interact among themselves and with the user. Thus, the different tools and the user need some way to communicate. It is our design principie that such communication be performed in terms of assertions. Assertions are syntactic objects which allow expressing properties of programs. Several assertion languages have been used in the past in different contexts, mainly related to program debugging. In this chapter we propose a general language of assertions which is used in different tools for validation and debugging of constraint logic programs in the context of the DiSCiPl project. The assertion language proposed is parametric w.r.t. the particular constraint domain and properties of interest being used in each different tool. The language proposed is quite general in that it poses few restrictions on the kind of properties which may be expressed. We believe the assertion language we propose is of practical relevance and appropriate for the different uses required in the tools considered.

An Introductory Course on Constraint Logic Programming

The purpose of this document is to serve as the printed material for the seminar "An Introductory Course on Constraint Logic Programming". The intended audience of this seminar are industrial programmers with a degree in Computer Science but little previous experience with constraint programming. The seminar itself has been field tested, prior to the writing of this document, with a group of the application programmers of Esprit project P23182, "VOCAL", aimed at developing an application in scheduling of field maintenance tasks in the context of an electric utility company. The contents of this paper follow essentially the flow of the seminar slides. However, there are some differences. These differences stem from our perception from the experience of teaching the seminar, that the technical aspects are the ones which need more attention and clearer explanations in the written version. Thus, this document includes more examples than those in the slides, more exercises (and the solutions to them), as well as four additional programming projects, with which we hope the reader will obtain a clearer view of the process of development and tuning of programs using CLP. On the other hand, several parts of the seminar have been taken out: those related with the account of fields and applications in which C(L)P is useful, and the enumerations of C(L)P tools available. We feel that the slides are clear enough, and that for more information on available tools, the interested reader will find more up-to-date information by browsing the Web or asking the vendors directly. More details in this direction will actually boil down to summarizing a user manual, which is not the aim of this document.

News in engineering education in Spain effective from 2010 in presence of external changes and mixed crisis, looking mostly to agro and civil engineers.

The engineering careers models were diverse in Europe, and are adopting now in Spain the Bolonia process for European Universities. Separated from older Universities, that are in part technically active, Civil Engineering (Caminos, Canales y Puertos) started at end of 18th century in Spain adopting the French models of Upper Schools for state civil servants with exam at entry. After 1800 intense wars, to conserve forest regions Ingenieros de Montes appeared as Upper School, and in 1855 also the Ingenieros Agrónomos to push up related techniques and practices. Other Engineers appeared as Upper Schools but more towards private factories. These ES got all adapted Lower Schools of Ingeniero Tecnico. Recently both grew much in number and evolved, linked also to recognized Professions. Spanish society, into European Community, evolved across year 2000, in part highly well, but with severe discordances, that caused severe youth unemployment with 2008-2011 crisis. With Bolonia process high formal changes step in from 2010-11, accepted with intense adaptation. The Lower Schools are changing towards the Upper Schools, and both that have shifted since 2010-11 various 4-years careers (Grado), some included into the precedent Professions, and diverse Masters. Acceptation of them to get students has started relatively well, and will evolve, and acceptation of new grades for employment in Spain, Europe or outside will be essential. Each Grado has now quite rigid curricula and programs, MOODLE was introduced to connect pupils, some specific uses of Personal Computers are taught in each subject. Escuela de Agronomos centre, reorganized with its old name in its precedent buildings at entrance of Campus Moncloa, offers Grados of Agronomic Engineering and Science for various public and private activities for agriculture, Alimentary Engineering for alimentary activities and control, Agro-Environmental Engineering more related to environment activities, and in part Biotechnology also in laboratories in Campus Monte-Gancedo for Biotechnology of Plants and Computational Biotechnology. Curricula include Basics, Engineering, Practices, Visits, English, ?project of end of career?, Stays. Some masters will conduce to specific professional diploma, list includes now Agro-Engineering, Agro-Forestal Biotechnology, Agro and Natural Resources Economy, Complex Physical Systems, Gardening and Landscaping, Rural Genie, Phytogenetic Resources, Plant Genetic Resources, Environmental Technology for Sustainable Agriculture, Technology for Human Development and Cooperation.

CO2 soil flux baseline at the technological development plant for CO2 injection at Hontomin (Burgos, Spain)

From the end of 2013 and during the following two years, 20 kt of CO2sc are planned to be injected in a saline reservoir (1500 m depth) at the Hontomín site (NE Spain). The target aquifers are Lower Jurassic limestone formations which are sealed by Lower Cretaceous clay units at the Hontomín site (NE Spain). The injection of CO2 is part of the activities committed in the Technology Development phase of the EC-funded OXYCFB300 project (European Energy Program for Recovery – EEPR, http://www.compostillaproject.eu), which include CO2 injection strategies, risk assessment, and testing and validating monitoring methodologies and techniques. Among the monitoring works, the project is intended to prove that present-day technology is able to monitor the evolution of injected CO2 in the reservoir and to detect potential leakage. One of the techniques is the measurement of CO2 flux at the soil���atmosphere interface, which includes campaigns before, during and after the injection operations. In this work soil CO2 flux measurements in the vicinity of oil borehole, drilled in the eighties and named H-1 to H-4, and injection and monitoring wells were performed using an accumulation chamber equipped with an IR sensor. Seven surveys were carried out from November 2009 to summer 2011. More than 4000 measurements were used to determine the baseline flux of CO2 and its seasonal variations. The measured values were low (from 5 to 13 g m−2 day−1) and few outliers were identified, mainly located close to the H-2 oil well. Nevertheless, these values cannot be associated to a deep source of CO2, being more likely related to biological processes, i.e. soil respiration. No anomalies were recognized close to the deep fault system (Ubierna Fault) detected by geophysical investigations. There, the CO2 flux is indeed as low as other measurement stations. CO2 fluxes appear to be controlled by the biological activity since the lowest values were recorded during autumn-winter seasons and they tend to increase in warm periods. Two reference CO2 flux values (UCL50 of 5 g m−2 d−1 for non-ploughed areas in autumn–winter seasons and 3.5 and 12 g m−2 d−1 for in ploughed and non-ploughed areas, respectively, in spring–summer time, and UCL99 of 26 g m−2 d−1 for autumn–winter in not-ploughed areas and 34 and 42 g m−2 d−1 for spring–summer in ploughed and not-ploughed areas, respectively) were calculated. Fluxes higher than these reference values could be indicative of possible leakage during the operational and post-closure stages of the storage project.

Development of a 3-Dimensional Mathematical Collision Risk Model Based on Recorded Aircraft Trajectories to Estimate the Safety Level in High Density En-Route Airspaces

Como en todos los medios de transporte, la seguridad en los viajes en avión es de primordial importancia. Con los aumentos de tráfico aéreo previstos en Europa para la próxima década, es evidente que el riesgo de accidentes necesita ser evaluado y monitorizado cuidadosamente de forma continúa. La Tesis presente tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un modelo de riesgo de colisión exhaustivo como método para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en ruta del espacio aéreo europeo, considerando todos los factores de influencia. La mayor limitación en el desarrollo de metodologías y herramientas de monitorización adecuadas para evaluar el nivel de seguridad en espacios de ruta europeos, donde los controladores aéreos monitorizan el tráfico aéreo mediante la vigilancia radar y proporcionan instrucciones tácticas a las aeronaves, reside en la estimación del riesgo operacional. Hoy en día, la estimación del riesgo operacional está basada normalmente en reportes de incidentes proporcionados por el proveedor de servicios de navegación aérea (ANSP). Esta Tesis propone un nuevo e innovador enfoque para evaluar el nivel de seguridad basado exclusivamente en el procesamiento y análisis trazas radar. La metodología propuesta ha sido diseñada para complementar la información recogida en las bases de datos de accidentes e incidentes, mediante la provisión de información robusta de los factores de tráfico aéreo y métricas de seguridad inferidas del análisis automático en profundidad de todos los eventos de proximidad. La metodología 3-D CRM se ha implementado en un prototipo desarrollado en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente las trazas radar y planes de vuelo registrados por los Sistemas de Procesamiento de Datos Radar (RDP) e identificar y analizar todos los eventos de proximidad (conflictos, conflictos potenciales y colisiones potenciales) en un periodo de tiempo y volumen del espacio aéreo. Actualmente, el prototipo 3-D CRM está siendo adaptado e integrado en la herramienta de monitorización de prestaciones de Aena (PERSEO) para complementar las bases de accidentes e incidentes ATM y mejorar la monitorización y proporcionar evidencias de los niveles de seguridad. ABSTRACT As with all forms of transport, the safety of air travel is of paramount importance. With the projected increases in European air traffic in the next decade and beyond, it is clear that the risk of accidents needs to be assessed and carefully monitored on a continuing basis. The present thesis is aimed at the development of a comprehensive collision risk model as a method of assessing the European en-route risk, due to all causes and across all dimensions within the airspace. The major constraint in developing appropriate monitoring methodologies and tools to assess the level of safety in en-route airspaces where controllers monitor air traffic by means of radar surveillance and provide aircraft with tactical instructions lies in the estimation of the operational risk. The operational risk estimate normally relies on incident reports provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSPs). This thesis proposes a new and innovative approach to assessing aircraft safety level based exclusively upon the process and analysis of radar tracks. The proposed methodology has been designed to complement the information collected in the accident and incident databases, thereby providing robust information on air traffic factors and safety metrics inferred from the in depth assessment of proximate events. The 3-D CRM methodology is implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyze recorded aircraft tracks and flight plan data from the Radar Data Processing systems (RDP) and identify and analyze all proximate events (conflicts, potential conflicts and potential collisions) within a time span and a given volume of airspace. Currently, the 3D-CRM prototype is been adapted and integrated in AENA’S Performance Monitoring Tool (PERSEO) to complement the information provided by the ATM accident and incident databases and to enhance monitoring and providing evidence of levels of safety.

Guidance for the development of accessibility evaluation tools following the Unified Software Development Process

Automated and semi-automated accessibility evaluation tools are key to streamline the process of accessibility assessment, and ultimately ensure that software products, contents, and services meet accessibility requirements. Different evaluation tools may better fit different needs and concerns, accounting for a variety of corporate and external policies, content types, invocation methods, deployment contexts, exploitation models, intended audiences and goals; and the specific overall process where they are introduced. This has led to the proliferation of many evaluation tools tailored to specific contexts. However, tool creators, who may be not familiar with the realm of accessibility and may be part of a larger project, lack any systematic guidance when facing the implementation of accessibility evaluation functionalities. Herein we present a systematic approach to the development of accessibility evaluation tools, leveraging the different artifacts and activities of a standardized development process model (the Unified Software Development Process), and providing templates of these artifacts tailored to accessibility evaluation tools. The work presented specially considers the work in progress in this area by the W3C/WAI Evaluation and Report Working Group (ERT WG)

Propuestas regulatorias para el diseño de un mercado ibérico a plazo eficiente de la energía = Regulatory proposals for the development of an efficient iberian energy forward market

El mercado ibérico de futuros de energía eléctrica gestionado por OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, con sede en Lisboa), también conocido como el mercado ibérico de derivados de energía, comenzó a funcionar el 3 de julio de 2006. Se analiza la eficiencia de este mercado organizado, por lo que se estudia la precisión con la que sus precios de futuros predicen el precio de contado. En dicho mercado coexisten dos modos de negociación: el mercado continuo (modo por defecto) y la contratación mediante subasta. En la negociación en continuo, las órdenes anónimas de compra y de venta interactúan de manera inmediata e individual con órdenes contrarias, dando lugar a operaciones con un número indeterminado de precios para cada contrato. En la negociación a través de subasta, un precio único de equilibrio maximiza el volumen negociado, liquidándose todas las operaciones a ese precio. Adicionalmente, los miembros negociadores de OMIP pueden liquidar operaciones “Over-The-Counter” (OTC) a través de la cámara de compensación de OMIP (OMIClear). Las cinco mayores empresas españolas de distribución de energía eléctrica tenían la obligación de comprar electricidad hasta julio de 2009 en subastas en OMIP, para cubrir parte de sus suministros regulados. De igual manera, el suministrador de último recurso portugués mantuvo tal obligación hasta julio de 2010. Los precios de equilibrio de esas subastas no han resultado óptimos a efectos retributivos de tales suministros regulados dado que dichos precios tienden a situarse ligeramente sesgados al alza. La prima de riesgo ex-post, definida como la diferencia entre los precios a plazo y de contado en el periodo de entrega, se emplea para medir su eficiencia de precio. El mercado de contado, gestionado por OMIE (“Operador de Mercado Ibérico de la Energía”, conocido tradicionalmente como “OMEL”), tiene su sede en Madrid. Durante los dos primeros años del mercado de futuros, la prima de riesgo media tiende a resultar positiva, al igual que en otros mercados europeos de energía eléctrica y gas natural. En ese periodo, la prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser negativa en los mercados de petróleo y carbón. Los mercados de energía tienden a mostrar niveles limitados de eficiencia de mercado. La eficiencia de precio del mercado de futuros aumenta con el desarrollo de otros mecanismos coexistentes dentro del mercado ibérico de electricidad (conocido como “MIBEL”) –es decir, el mercado dominante OTC, las subastas de centrales virtuales de generación conocidas en España como Emisiones Primarias de Energía, y las subastas para cubrir parte de los suministros de último recurso conocidas en España como subastas CESUR– y con una mayor integración de los mercados regionales europeos de energía eléctrica. Se construye un modelo de regresión para analizar la evolución de los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo durante sus cuatro primeros años como una función de doce indicadores potenciales de liquidez. Los únicos indicadores significativos son los volúmenes negociados en las subastas obligatorias gestionadas por OMIP, los volúmenes negociados en el mercado OTC y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear. El número de creadores de mercado, la incorporación de agentes financieros y compañías de generación pertenecientes a grupos integrados con suministradores de último recurso, y los volúmenes OTC compensados por OMIClear muestran una fuerte correlación con los volúmenes negociados en el mercado continuo. La liquidez de OMIP está aún lejos de los niveles alcanzados por los mercados europeos más maduros (localizados en los países nórdicos (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) y Alemania (EEX)). El operador de mercado y su cámara de compensación podrían desarrollar acciones eficientes de marketing para atraer nuevos agentes activos en el mercado de contado (p.ej. industrias consumidoras intensivas de energía, suministradores, pequeños productores, compañías energéticas internacionales y empresas de energías renovables) y agentes financieros, captar volúmenes del opaco OTC, y mejorar el funcionamiento de los productos existentes aún no líquidos. Resultaría de gran utilidad para tales acciones un diálogo activo con todos los agentes (participantes en el mercado, operador de mercado de contado, y autoridades supervisoras). Durante sus primeros cinco años y medio, el mercado continuo presenta un crecimento de liquidez estable. Se mide el desempeño de sus funciones de cobertura mediante la ratio de posición neta obtenida al dividir la posición abierta final de un contrato de derivados mensual entre su volumen acumulado en la cámara de compensación. Los futuros carga base muestran la ratio más baja debido a su buena liquidez. Los futuros carga punta muestran una mayor ratio al producirse su menor liquidez a través de contadas subastas fijadas por regulación portuguesa. Las permutas carga base liquidadas en la cámara de compensación ubicada en Madrid –MEFF Power, activa desde el 21 de marzo de 2011– muestran inicialmente valores altos debido a bajos volúmenes registrados, dado que esta cámara se emplea principalmente para vencimientos pequeños (diario y semanal). Dicha ratio puede ser una poderosa herramienta de supervisión para los reguladores energéticos cuando accedan a todas las transacciones de derivados en virtud del Reglamento Europeo sobre Integridad y Transparencia de los Mercados de Energía (“REMIT”), en vigor desde el 28 de diciembre de 2011. La prima de riesgo ex-post tiende a ser positiva en todos los mecanismos (futuros en OMIP, mercado OTC y subastas CESUR) y disminuye debido a la curvas de aprendizaje y al efecto, desde el año 2011, del precio fijo para la retribución de la generación con carbón autóctono. Se realiza una comparativa con los costes a plazo de generación con gas natural (diferencial “clean spark spread”) obtenido como la diferencia entre el precio del futuro eléctrico y el coste a plazo de generación con ciclo combinado internalizando los costes de emisión de CO2. Los futuros eléctricos tienen una elevada correlación con los precios de gas europeos. Los diferenciales de contratos con vencimiento inmediato tienden a ser positivos. Los mayores diferenciales se dan para los contratos mensuales, seguidos de los trimestrales y anuales. Los generadores eléctricos con gas pueden maximizar beneficios con contratos de menor vencimiento. Los informes de monitorización por el operador de mercado que proporcionan transparencia post-operacional, el acceso a datos OTC por el regulador energético, y la valoración del riesgo regulatorio pueden contribuir a ganancias de eficiencia. Estas recomendaciones son también válidas para un potencial mercado ibérico de futuros de gas, una vez que el hub ibérico de gas –actualmente en fase de diseño, con reuniones mensuales de los agentes desde enero de 2013 en el grupo de trabajo liderado por el regulador energético español– esté operativo. El hub ibérico de gas proporcionará transparencia al atraer más agentes y mejorar la competencia, incrementando su eficiencia, dado que en el mercado OTC actual no se revela precio alguno de gas. ABSTRACT The Iberian Power Futures Market, managed by OMIP (“Operador do Mercado Ibérico de Energia, Pólo Português”, located in Lisbon), also known as the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market, started operations on 3 July 2006. The market efficiency, regarding how well the future price predicts the spot price, is analysed for this energy derivatives exchange. There are two trading modes coexisting within OMIP: the continuous market (default mode) and the call auction. In the continuous trading, anonymous buy and sell orders interact immediately and individually with opposite side orders, generating trades with an undetermined number of prices for each contract. In the call auction trading, a single price auction maximizes the traded volume, being all trades settled at the same price (equilibrium price). Additionally, OMIP trading members may settle Over-the-Counter (OTC) trades through OMIP clearing house (OMIClear). The five largest Spanish distribution companies have been obliged to purchase in auctions managed by OMIP until July 2009, in order to partly cover their portfolios of end users’ regulated supplies. Likewise, the Portuguese last resort supplier kept that obligation until July 2010. The auction equilibrium prices are not optimal for remuneration purposes of regulated supplies as such prices seem to be slightly upward biased. The ex-post forward risk premium, defined as the difference between the forward and spot prices in the delivery period, is used to measure its price efficiency. The spot market, managed by OMIE (Market Operator of the Iberian Energy Market, Spanish Pool, known traditionally as “OMEL”), is located in Madrid. During the first two years of the futures market, the average forward risk premium tends to be positive, as it occurs with other European power and natural gas markets. In that period, the ex-post forward risk premium tends to be negative in oil and coal markets. Energy markets tend to show limited levels of market efficiency. The price efficiency of the Iberian Power Futures Market improves with the market development of all the coexistent forward contracting mechanisms within the Iberian Electricity Market (known as “MIBEL”) – namely, the dominant OTC market, the Virtual Power Plant Auctions known in Spain as Energy Primary Emissions, and the auctions catering for part of the last resort supplies known in Spain as CESUR auctions – and with further integration of European Regional Electricity Markets. A regression model tracking the evolution of the traded volumes in the continuous market during its first four years is built as a function of twelve potential liquidity drivers. The only significant drivers are the traded volumes in OMIP compulsory auctions, the traded volumes in the OTC market, and the OTC cleared volumes by OMIClear. The amount of market makers, the enrolment of financial members and generation companies belonging to the integrated group of last resort suppliers, and the OTC cleared volume by OMIClear show strong correlation with the traded volumes in the continuous market. OMIP liquidity is still far from the levels reached by the most mature European markets (located in the Nordic countries (Nasdaq OMX Commodities) and Germany (EEX)). The market operator and its clearing house could develop efficient marketing actions to attract new entrants active in the spot market (e.g. energy intensive industries, suppliers, small producers, international energy companies and renewable generation companies) and financial agents as well as volumes from the opaque OTC market, and to improve the performance of existing illiquid products. An active dialogue with all the stakeholders (market participants, spot market operator, and supervisory authorities) will help to implement such actions. During its firs five and a half years, the continuous market shows steady liquidity growth. The hedging performance is measured through a net position ratio obtained from the final open interest of a month derivatives contract divided by its accumulated cleared volume. The base load futures in the Iberian energy derivatives exchange show the lowest ratios due to good liquidity. The peak futures show bigger ratios as their reduced liquidity is produced by auctions fixed by Portuguese regulation. The base load swaps settled in the clearing house located in Spain – MEFF Power, operating since 21 March 2011, with a new denomination (BME Clearing) since 9 September 2013 – show initially large values due to low registered volumes, as this clearing house is mainly used for short maturity (daily and weekly swaps). The net position ratio can be a powerful oversight tool for energy regulators when accessing to all the derivatives transactions as envisaged by European regulation on Energy Market Integrity and Transparency (“REMIT”), in force since 28 December 2011. The ex-post forward risk premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (OMIP futures, OTC market and CESUR auctions) and diminishes due to the learning curve and the effect – since year 2011 – of the fixed price retributing the indigenous coal fired generation. Comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”) – obtained as the difference between the power futures price and the forward generation cost with a gas fired combined cycle plant taking into account the CO2 emission rates – is also performed. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The clean spark spreads built with prompt contracts tend to be positive. The biggest clean spark spreads are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity. Market monitoring reports by the market operator providing post-trade transparency, OTC data access by the energy regulator, and assessment of the regulatory risk can contribute to efficiency gains. The same recommendations are also valid for a potential Iberian gas futures market, once an Iberian gas hub – currently in a design phase, with monthly meetings amongst the stakeholders in a Working Group led by the Spanish energy regulatory authority since January 2013 – is operating. The Iberian gas hub would bring transparency attracting more shippers and improving competition and thus its efficiency, as no gas price is currently disclosed in the existing OTC market.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Research on wide-bandgap intermediate band solar cells and development of experimental techniques for their characterization

El trabajo que ha dado lugar a esta Tesis Doctoral se enmarca en la invesitagación en células solares de banda intermedia (IBSCs, por sus siglas en inglés). Se trata de un nuevo concepto de célula solar que ofrece la posibilidad de alcanzar altas eficiencias de conversión fotovoltaica. Hasta ahora, se han demostrado de manera experimental los fundamentos de operación de las IBSCs; sin embargo, esto tan sólo has sido posible en condicines de baja temperatura. El concepto de banda intermedia (IB, por sus siglas en inglés) exige que haya desacoplamiento térmico entre la IB y las bandas de valencia y conducción (VB and CB, respectivamente, por sus siglas en inglés). Los materiales de IB actuales presentan un acoplamiento térmico demasiado fuerte entre la IB y una de las otras dos bandas, lo cual impide el correcto funcionamiento de las IBSCs a temperatura ambiente. En el caso particular de las IBSCs fabricadas con puntos cuánticos (QDs, por sus siglas en inglés) de InAs/GaAs - a día de hoy, la tecnología de IBSC más estudiada - , se produce un rápido intercambio de portadores entre la IB y la CB, por dos motivos: (1) una banda prohibida estrecha (< 0.2 eV) entre la IB y la CB, E^, y (2) la existencia de niveles electrónicos entre ellas. El motivo (1) implica, a su vez, que la máxima eficiencia alcanzable en estos dispositivos es inferior al límite teórico de la IBSC ideal, en la cual E^ = 0.71 eV. En este contexto, nuestro trabajo se centra en el estudio de IBSCs de alto gap (o banda prohibida) fabricadsas con QDs, o lo que es lo mismo, QD-IBSCs de alto gap. Hemos fabricado e investigado experimentalmente los primeros prototipos de QD-IBSC en los que se utiliza AlGaAs o InGaP para albergar QDs de InAs. En ellos demostramos une distribución de gaps mejorada con respecto al caso de InAs/GaAs. En concreto, hemos medido valores de E^ mayores que 0.4 eV. En los prototipos de InAs/AlGaAs, este incremento de E^ viene acompaado de un incremento, en más de 100 meV, de la energía de activación del escape térmico. Además, nuestros dispositivos de InAs/AlGaAs demuestran conversión a la alza de tensión; es decir, la producción de una tensión de circuito abierto mayor que la energía de los fotones (dividida por la carga del electrón) de un haz monocromático incidente, así como la preservación del voltaje a temperaura ambiente bajo iluminación de luz blanca concentrada. Asimismo, analizamos el potencial para detección infrarroja de los materiales de IB. Presentamos un nuevo concepto de fotodetector de infrarrojos, basado en la IB, que hemos llamado: fotodetector de infrarrojos activado ópticamente (OTIP, por sus siglas en inglés). Nuestro novedoso dispositivo se basa en un nuevo pricipio físico que permite que la detección de luz infrarroja sea conmutable (ON y OFF) mediante iluminación externa. Hemos fabricado un OTIP basado en QDs de InAs/AlGaAs con el que demostramos fotodetección, bajo incidencia normal, en el rango 2-6/xm, activada ópticamente por un diodoe emisor de luz de 590 nm. El estudio teórico del mecanismo de detección asistido por la IB en el OTIP nos lleva a poner en cuestión la asunción de quasi-niveles de Fermi planos en la zona de carga del espacio de una célula solar. Apoyados por simuaciones a nivel de dispositivo, demostramos y explicamos por qué esta asunción no es válida en condiciones de corto-circuito e iluminación. También llevamos a cabo estudios experimentales en QD-IBSCs de InAs/AlGaAs con la finalidad de ampliar el conocimiento sobre algunos aspectos de estos dispositivos que no han sido tratados aun. En particular, analizamos el impacto que tiene el uso de capas de disminución de campo (FDLs, por sus siglas en inglés), demostrando su eficiencia para evitar el escape por túnel de portadores desde el QD al material anfitrión. Analizamos la relación existente entre el escape por túnel y la preservación del voltaje, y proponemos las medidas de eficiencia cuántica en función de la tensión como una herramienta útil para evaluar la limitación del voltaje relacionada con el túnel en QD-IBSCs. Además, realizamos medidas de luminiscencia en función de la temperatura en muestras de InAs/GaAs y verificamos que los resltados obtenidos están en coherencia con la separación de los quasi-niveles de Fermi de la IB y la CB a baja temperatura. Con objeto de contribuir a la capacidad de fabricación y caracterización del Instituto de Energía Solar de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (IES-UPM), hemos participado en la instalación y puesta en marcha de un reactor de epitaxia de haz molecular (MBE, por sus siglas en inglés) y el desarrollo de un equipo de caracterización de foto y electroluminiscencia. Utilizando dicho reactor MBE, hemos crecido, y posteriormente caracterizado, la primera QD-IBSC enteramente fabricada en el IES-UPM. ABSTRACT The constituent work of this Thesis is framed in the research on intermediate band solar cells (IBSCs). This concept offers the possibility of achieving devices with high photovoltaic-conversion efficiency. Up to now, the fundamentals of operation of IBSCs have been demonstrated experimentally; however, this has only been possible at low temperatures. The intermediate band (IB) concept demands thermal decoupling between the IB and the valence and conduction bands. Stateof- the-art IB materials exhibit a too strong thermal coupling between the IB and one of the other two bands, which prevents the proper operation of IBSCs at room temperature. In the particular case of InAs/GaAs quantum-dot (QD) IBSCs - as of today, the most widely studied IBSC technology - , there exist fast thermal carrier exchange between the IB and the conduction band (CB), for two reasons: (1) a narrow (< 0.2 eV) energy gap between the IB and the CB, EL, and (2) the existence of multiple electronic levels between them. Reason (1) also implies that maximum achievable efficiency is below the theoretical limit for the ideal IBSC, in which EL = 0.71 eV. In this context, our work focuses on the study of wide-bandgap QD-IBSCs. We have fabricated and experimentally investigated the first QD-IBSC prototypes in which AlGaAs or InGaP is the host material for the InAs QDs. We demonstrate an improved bandgap distribution, compared to the InAs/GaAs case, in our wide-bandgap devices. In particular, we have measured values of EL higher than 0.4 eV. In the case of the AlGaAs prototypes, the increase in EL comes with an increase of more than 100 meV of the activation energy of the thermal carrier escape. In addition, in our InAs/AlGaAs devices, we demonstrate voltage up-conversion; i. e., the production of an open-circuit voltage larger than the photon energy (divided by the electron charge) of the incident monochromatic beam, and the achievement of voltage preservation at room temperature under concentrated white-light illumination. We also analyze the potential of an IB material for infrared detection. We present a IB-based new concept of infrared photodetector that we have called the optically triggered infrared photodetector (OTIP). Our novel device is based on a new physical principle that allows the detection of infrared light to be switched ON and OFF by means of an external light. We have fabricated an OTIP based on InAs/AlGaAs QDs with which we demonstrate normal incidence photodetection in the 2-6 /xm range optically triggered by a 590 nm light-emitting diode. The theoretical study of the IB-assisted detection mechanism in the OTIP leads us to questioning the assumption of flat quasi-Fermi levels in the space-charge region of a solar cell. Based on device simulations, we prove and explain why this assumption is not valid under short-circuit and illumination conditions. We perform new experimental studies on InAs/GaAs QD-IBSC prototypes in order to gain knowledge on yet unexplored aspects of the performance of these devices. Specifically, we analyze the impact of the use of field-damping layers, and demonstrate this technique to be efficient for avoiding tunnel carrier escape from the QDs to the host material. We analyze the relationship between tunnel escape and voltage preservation, and propose voltage-dependent quantum efficiency measurements as an useful technique for assessing the tunneling-related limitation to the voltage preservation of QD-IBSC prototypes. Moreover, we perform temperature-dependent luminescence studies on InAs/GaAs samples and verify that the results are consistent with a split of the quasi-Fermi levels for the CB and the IB at low temperature. In order to contribute to the fabrication and characterization capabilities of the Solar Energy Institute of the Universidad Polite´cnica de Madrid (IES-UPM), we have participated in the installation and start-up of an molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) reactor and the development of a photo and electroluminescence characterization set-up. Using the MBE reactor, we have manufactured and characterized the first QD-IBSC fully fabricated at the IES-UPM.