The deep ocean density structure at the Last Glacial Maximum : What was it and why?

The search for reliable proxies of past deep ocean temperature and salinity has proved difficult, thereby limiting our ability to understand the coupling of ocean circulation and climate over glacial-interglacial timescales. Previous inferences of deep ocean temperature and salinity from sediment pore fluid oxygen isotopes and chlorinity indicate that the deep ocean density structure at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, approximately 20,000 years BP) was set by salinity, and that the density contrast between northern and southern sourced deep waters was markedly greater than in the modern ocean. High density stratification could help explain the marked contrast in carbon isotope distribution recorded in the LGM ocean relative to that we observe today, but what made the ocean's density structure so different at the LGM? How did it evolve from one state to another? Further, given the sparsity of the LGM temperature and salinity data set, what else can we learn by increasing the spatial density of proxy records?

We investigate the cause and feasibility of a highly and salinity stratified deep ocean at the LGM and we work to increase the amount of information we can glean about the past ocean from pore fluid profiles of oxygen isotopes and chloride. Using a coupled ocean--sea ice--ice shelf cavity model we test whether the deep ocean density structure at the LGM can be explained by ice--ocean interactions over the Antarctic continental shelves, and show that a large contribution of the LGM salinity stratification can be explained through lower ocean temperature. In order to extract the maximum information from pore fluid profiles of oxygen isotopes and chloride we evaluate several inverse methods for ill-posed problems and their ability to recover bottom water histories from sediment pore fluid profiles. We demonstrate that Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation techniques enable us to robustly recover the full solution space of bottom water histories, not only at the LGM, but through the most recent deglaciation and the Holocene up to the present. Finally, we evaluate a non-destructive pore fluid sampling technique, Rhizon samplers, in comparison to traditional squeezing methods and show that despite their promise, Rhizons are unlikely to be a good sampling tool for pore fluid measurements of oxygen isotopes and chloride.

The structure and petrology of the Johnny Lyon Hills area, Cochise County, Arizona

The Johnny Lyon Hills area is located in Cochise County in southeastern Arizona. The rocks of the area include a central core of Lower pre-Cambrian igneous and metamorphic rocks surrounded by a complexly faulted and tilted section of Upper pre-Cambrian and Paleozoic strata. Limited exposures of Mesozoic and Tertiary sedimentary and volcanic rocks are present at the north end of the map area. Late Tertiary and Quaternary alluvium almost completely surrounds and overlaps upon the older rocks.

The older pre-Cambrian rocks include a section of more than 9000 feet of generally moderately metamorphosed graywackes, slates and conglomerates of the Pinal schist injected in zones by somewhat younger rnyolite sheets. The original sediments were deposited in a geosyncline whose extent probably included large parts of Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas. During the Mazatzal Revolution the Pinal schist was deformed into northeast-trending, steeply dipping and plunging structures and the entire local section was overturned steeply toward the northwest. The pre-Cambrian Johnny Lyon granodiorite was emplaced as a large epi-tectonic pluton which modified the metamorphic character of part of the Pinal schist. Larsen method determinations indicate an age of about 715 million years for this rock, which is about the minimum age compatible with the geologic relations.

The Laramide orogeny produced numerous major thrust faults in the area involving all rocks older than and including the Lower Cretaceous Bisbee group. Major compression from the southwest and subsequent superimposed thrusting from the southeast and east are indicated. Minimum thrust displacements of more than a mile are clear and the probable displacements are of much greater magnitude. The crystalline core behaved as a single structural unit and probably caused important local divergences from the regional pattern of northeast-trending compressive forces. The massif was rotated as a unit 40 degrees or more about a northwest-trending axis overturning the pre-Cambrian fold axes in the Pinal schist.

Swarms of Late Cretaceous(?) or Early Tertiary(?) lamprophyric dikes cross the Laramide structures and are probably related to the large Texas Canyon stock several miles southeast of the map area. Intermittent high angle faulting, both older and younger than the dikes, has continued since the Laramide orogeny and has been superimposed on the older structures. This steep faulting combined with the fundamental northwesterly Laramide structural grain to produce the northwesterly trends characteristic of the mountain ridges and valleys of the area.

An economic air pollution control model-application : photochemical smog in Los Angeles County in 1975

An economic air pollution control model, which determines the least cost of reaching various air quality levels, is formulated. The model takes the form of a general, nonlinear, mathematical programming problem. Primary contaminant emission levels are the independent variables. The objective function is the cost of attaining various emission levels and is to be minimized subject to constraints that given air quality levels be attained.

The model is applied to a simplified statement of the photochemical smog problem in Los Angeles County in 1975 with emissions specified by a two-dimensional vector, total reactive hydrocarbon, (RHC), and nitrogen oxide, (NO_x), emissions. Air quality, also two-dimensional, is measured by the expected number of days per year that nitrogen dioxide, (NO₂), and mid-day ozone, (O₃), exceed standards in Central Los Angeles.

The minimum cost of reaching various emission levels is found by a linear programming model. The base or "uncontrolled" emission levels are those that will exist in 1975 with the present new car control program and with the degree of stationary source control existing in 1971. Controls, basically "add-on devices", are considered here for used cars, aircraft, and existing stationary sources. It is found that with these added controls, Los Angeles County emission levels [(1300 tons/day RHC, 1000 tons /day NO_x) in 1969] and [(670 tons/day RHC, 790 tons/day NO_x) at the base 1975 level], can be reduced to 260 tons/day RHC (minimum RHC program) and 460 tons/day NO_x (minimum NO_x program).

"Phenomenological" or statistical air quality models provide the relationship between air quality and emissions. These models estimate the relationship by using atmospheric monitoring data taken at one (yearly) emission level and by using certain simple physical assumptions, (e. g., that emissions are reduced proportionately at all points in space and time). For NO₂, (concentrations assumed proportional to NO_x emissions), it is found that standard violations in Central Los Angeles, (55 in 1969), can be reduced to 25, 5, and 0 days per year by controlling emissions to 800, 550, and 300 tons /day, respectively. A probabilistic model reveals that RHC control is much more effective than NO_x control in reducing Central Los Angeles ozone. The 150 days per year ozone violations in 1969 can be reduced to 75, 30, 10, and 0 days per year by abating RHC emissions to 700, 450, 300, and 150 tons/day, respectively, (at the 1969 NO_x emission level).

The control cost-emission level and air quality-emission level relationships are combined in a graphical solution of the complete model to find the cost of various air quality levels. Best possible air quality levels with the controls considered here are 8 O₃ and 10 NO₂ violations per year (minimum ozone program) or 25 O₃ and 3 NO₂ violations per year (minimum NO₂ program) with an annualized cost of $230,000,000 (above the estimated $150,000,000 per year for the new car control program for Los Angeles County motor vehicles in 1975).

The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

Geology of the Pacoima Area, Los Angeles County, California

The Pacoima area is located on an isolated hill in the northeast section of the San Fernando, the northeast portion of the Pacoima Quadrangle, Los Angeles County, California. Within it are exposed more than 2300 feet of Tertiary rocks, which comprise three units of Middle Miocene (?) age, and approximately 950 feet of Jurassic (?) granite basement. The formations are characterized by their mode of occurrence, marine and terrestial origin, diverse lithology, and structural features.

The basement complex is composed of intrusive granite, small masses of granodiorite and a granodiorite gneiss with the development of schistosity in sections. During the long period of erosion of the metamorphics, the granitic rocks were exposed and may have provided clastic constituents for the overlying formations.

As a result of rapid sedimentation in a transitional environment, the Middle Miocene Twin Peaks formation was laid down unconformably on the granite. This formation is essentially a large thinning bed of gray to buff pebble and cobble conglomerate grading to coarse yellow sandstone. The contact of conglomerate and granite is characterized by its faulted and depositional nature.

Beds of extrusive andesite, basalt porphyry, compact vesicular amygdaloidal basalts, andesite breccia, interbedded feldspathic sands and clays of terrestial origin, and mudflow breccia comprise the Pacoima formation which overlies the Twin Peaks formation unconformably. A transgressing shallow sea accompanied settling of the region and initiated deposition of fine clastic sediments.

The marine Topanga (?) formation is composed of brown to gray coarse sandstone grading into interbedded buff sandstones and gray shales. Intrusions of rhyolitedacite and ash beds mark continued but sporatic volcanism during this period.

The area mapped represents an arch in the Tertiary sediments. Forces that produced the uplift of the granite structural high created stresses that were relieved by jointing and faulting. Vertical and horizontal movement along these faults has displaced beds, offset contacts and complicated their structure. Uplift and erosion have exposed the present sequence of beds which dip gently to the northeast. The isolated hill is believed to be in an early stage of maturity.

Região Serrana do Estado do Rio de Janeiro e a expansão dos riscos ambientais, ações preventivas e catástrofes: o caso de Petrópolis

O município de Petrópolis, palco de recorrente de problemas ambientais envolvendo movimentos de massa concentrados historicamente na sua área mais urbanizada, os distritos Sede e Cascatinha, vive nas últimas décadas um crescimento populacional que se orienta basicamente para antigas áreas rurais de Itaipava, Pedro do Rio e Posse. O objetivo geral da pesquisa é investigar como este crescimento vem ocorrendo, analisando as características geológico-geomorfológicas dos novos espaços ocupados, os fatores predisponentes às novas condições de risco envolvendo os movimentos de massa e as inundações. Assim, foi elaborado um panorama sócio-evolutivo do processo de ocupação do solo em Petrópolis, considerando especialmente a dinâmica demográfica registrada nos distritos através dos censos demográficos a partir da década de 1940. Utilizando o geoprocessamento como ferramenta e a classificação visual de segmentação de OrtofotosCarta IBGE na escala 1: 25.000, foram produzidos mapas de uso do solo para o município e distritos detalhando a área ocupada. Com o fim de atender ao diagnóstico das situações de risco foi realizado o levantamento da situação atual da ocorrência dos movimentos de massa e inundações no município, comparando levantamentos anteriores e verificando a distribuição das ocorrências e a população atingida. Por fim, a avaliação da execução da política de desenvolvimento e expansão urbana definida no Plano Diretor de Petrópolis e na Lei de Uso, Parcelamento e Ocupação do Solo, analisando o zoneamento e seus usos (rural, rururbano, urbano e zona de proteção especial) resultando no entendimento de como os aspectos normativos vem sendo tratados, naquilo que são respeitados e naquilo que não são cumpridos na dinâmica da ocupação do espaço, levantando as ações de prevenção, ou não, dos problemas ambientais. Contudo, a definição dos objetivos do trabalho teve dois momentos. O primeiro com a análise da expansão urbana construindo novas condições de risco e o segundo momento, lamentavelmente, aquele no qual as evidências ganharam contorno de realidade com o ocorrido em dezembro de 2010 e em janeiro de 2011, principalmente quando inundações bruscas associadas aos deslizamentos de terra nas encostas atingiram áreas de Petrópolis e de outros municípios da região Serrana do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, certamente, a maior tragédia ambiental ocorrida no Centro-Sul do país até então. Com mais de 900 mortos, centenas de desaparecidos e milhares de desabrigados e desalojados, os eventos suplantaram os objetivos do trabalho, colocando novas questões, ao mesmo tempo em que a realidade demonstrou a coerência e pertinência daqueles objetivos com os problemas apresentados. Assim, dentre os objetivos passou a constar também a verificação in loco das conseqüências de movimentos de massa e inundações nas áreas apontadas anteriormente, como foi o caso do vale do Rio Santo Antônio em Itaipava. O trabalho, assim, se pautou por indicar a necessidade ter-se maior atenção às novas áreas de ocupação no município, considerando a natureza do território, contribuindo como um subsídio na prevenção ao risco.

Estudos de metais pesados e isótopos de Pb nos sedimentos da Baía de Sepetiba baseados em geoquímica e na distribuição pelas possíveis áreas fontes

A Baia de Sepetiba é uma laguna costeira separada do oceano por uma ilha barreira. Localiza-se a 60 km da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, em uma importante região geoeconômica do Brasil. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a distribuição espacial da contaminação dos metais Cu, Pb, V, Cr, Cd, Co, Ni e Zn nos sedimentos da Baia. O mapa das concentrações elaborado pelo método de lixiviação permitiu caracterizar anomalias ao entorno da foz do Rio Guandu, na área da Coroa Grande, do Porto de Itaguaí, da Ilha do Martins, e anomalias ao longo de faixa com direção NW-SE. Os resultados das concentrações totais indicam contaminação por Zn, Cd, próximo a Ilha da Madeira com Pb e Cr associados e Cu e Zn na Restinga de Marambaia, com Ni, Pb e Cr associados. Os resultados dos isótopos de Pb para as razões de 206Pb/207Pb entre 1,23 e 1,27 representam os resíduos industriais e ocorrem em duas áreas: na parte leste da Restinga e entre as Ilhas de Jaguanum e Itacuruçá. A leste/sudeste destas ilhas foi reportada uma razão ainda mais alta (1.30), ainda não identificável na literatura. As correntes marinhas desempenham a redistribuição dos sedimentos e metais associados na Baia, com transporte de oeste para leste da pluma sedimentar descarregada pelos rios. Os principais causadores da poluição da Baia de Sepetiba são uma pilha de rejeito de Zn abandonada, resíduos industriais e domésticos não tratados de forma eficaz, poluentes atmosféricos de siderúrgicas e veículos, e por ventura resíduos de atividades navais e militares.

Traçadores isotópicos (Pb) e concentrações de metais em sedimentos superficiais: ferramentas na caracterização da poluição no setor oeste da baía de Sepetiba-RJ (SE do Brasil)

Este estudo teve como objetivo principal utilizar os teores de elementos-traço e análise isotópica de Pb (204Pb,206Pb,207Pb,208Pb) como ferramentas na caracterização da poluição da Baía de Sepetiba-RJ. As coletas de sedimento superficiais de fundo foram realizadas em três campanhas, em novembro de 2010, no setor oeste da Baía de Sepetiba RJ. A malha amostral é composta por 66 amostras (BSEP 001 a BSEP 066) coletadas com busca-fundo Van Veen. O pré-processamento das amostras ocorreu no Laboratório Geológico de Preparação de Amostras do Departamento de Geologia da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. A digestão parcial das amostras de sedimento (< 0.072 mm) para obtenção do teor parcial dos elementos-traço (Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Li, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sr, U, Zn) e de isótopo de Pb (lixiviação) foi executada no Laboratório de Geoquímica Analítica do Instituto de Geociências da UNICAMP e a leitura foi executada através do ICP-MS. Já as análises das concentrações totais dos elementos-traço (inclusive, Hg) e de isótopos de Pb (dissolução total) foram realizadas no laboratório ACTLABS (Ontário-Canadá) através do ICP Varian Vista. As leituras isotópicas foram feitas somente nas amostras que apresentaram concentrações parciais de Pb, acima de 0,5 g/g, totalizando 21 estações. Pôde-se constatar a existência de um enriquecimento de elementos-traço no setor oeste da Baía de Sepetiba. As médias dos teores totais de Ag (0,4 g/g), Cd (0,76 g/g), Cu (62,59 g/g), Li (43,29 g/g), Ni (16,65 g/g), Pb (20,08 g/g), Sr (389,64 g/g) e Zn (184,82 g/g) excederam os limites recomendados ou valores naturais. Isto pode ser reflexo da influência antrópica na região, principalmente relacionada à atividade de dragagem e à permanência dos resíduos de minério da desativada companhia de minério Ingá, na Ilha da Madeira. Os mapas de distribuição da concentração dos metais-traço destacaram a presença de vários sítios de deposição ao longo do setor oeste da baía de Sepetiba, com destaque para a região entre a porção centro oeste da Ilha de Itacuruça e o continente; Saco da Marambaia e Ponta da Pombeba; e porção oeste da Ponta da Marambaia. As razões isotópicas 206Pb/207Pb da área estudada variaram entre 1,163 a 1,259 para dissolução total e 1,1749-1,1877 para técnica de lixiviação, valores considerados como assinaturas de sedimentos pós-industriais ou comparados à assinatura de gasolina. Ainda sobre a técnica de lixiviação, destaca-se que os sedimentos superficiais do setor oeste (206Pb/207Pb: 1,1789) da baía de Sepetiba apresentaram uma assinatura uniforme e menos radiogênica do que setor leste (206Pb/207Pb: 1,2373 e 1,2110) desta baía. Através da assinatura isotópica de Pb encontrada nesta região é possível destacar a pouca contribuição das águas oceânicas para esse sistema, entretanto, a circulação interna intensa das águas da baía permite a homogeneização destas. O emprego destes tipos de ferramentas no monitoramento ambiental da área mostrou-se bastante eficiente, sendo importante a continuidade desta abordagem de pesquisa a fim de auxiliar na implementação de um plano de manejo local.

Technical workshop on calculating Nmin for the dolphin stocks of the eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: This report based on the minutes of a technical workshop carried out under the auspices of the Agreement on the International Dolphin Conservation Program, which took place in La Jolla, California, USA, on August 2-5, 2005. It is reproduced as an IATTC Special Report to make it more widely available to the general public. Some minor changes in formatting have been made, but nothing of scientific importance has been deleted from or added to the report. SPANISH: El presente informe se basa en el acta de una reunión técnica que se celebró en La Jolla, California (EE.UU.) del 2 al 5 de agosto de 2005, bajo los auspicios del Acuerdo sobre el Programa Internacional para la Conservación de los Delfines. Se reproduce como Informe Especial de la CIAT para difundirlo más ampliamente al público general. Se han cambiado unos detalles del formato, pero no se ha añadido ni sustraido nada de importancia científica.

An Evaluation of the area stratification used for sampling tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean and implications for estimating total annual catches

The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) staff has been sampling the size distributions of tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) since 1954, and the species composition of the catches since 2000. The IATTC staff use the data from the species composition samples, in conjunction with observer and/or logbook data, and unloading data from the canneries to estimate the total annual catches of yellowfin (Thunnus albacares), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and bigeye (Thunnus obesus) tunas. These sample data are collected based on a stratified sampling design. I propose an update of the stratification of the EPO into more homogenous areas in order to reduce the variance in the estimates of the total annual catches and incorporate the geographical shifts resulting from the expansion of the floating-object fishery during the 1990s. The sampling model used by the IATTC is a stratified two-stage (cluster) random sampling design with first stage units varying (unequal) in size. The strata are month, area, and set type. Wells, the first cluster stage, are selected to be sampled only if all of the fish were caught in the same month, same area, and same set type. Fish, the second cluster stage, are sampled for lengths, and independently, for species composition of the catch. The EPO is divided into 13 sampling areas, which were defined in 1968, based on the catch distributions of yellowfin and skipjack tunas. This area stratification does not reflect the multi-species, multi-set-type fishery of today. In order to define more homogenous areas, I used agglomerative cluster analysis to look for groupings of the size data and the catch and effort data for 2000–2006. I plotted the results from both datasets against the IATTC Sampling Areas, and then created new areas. I also used the results of the cluster analysis to update the substitution scheme for strata with catch, but no sample. I then calculated the total annual catch (and variance) by species by stratifying the data into new Proposed Sampling Areas and compared the results to those reported by the IATTC. Results showed that re-stratifying the areas produced smaller variances of the catch estimates for some species in some years, but the results were not significant.