The evaluation of time series: their scientific value and contribution to policy needs. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 22

In 2000 a Review of Current Marine Observations in relation to present and future needs was undertaken by the Inter-Agency Committee for Marine Science and Technology (IACMST). The Marine Environmental Change Network (MECN) was initiated in 2002 as a direct response to the recommendations of the report. A key part of the current phase of the MECN is to ensure that information from the network is provided to policy makers and other end-users to enable them to produce more accurate assessments of ecosystem state and gain a clearer understanding of factors influencing change in marine ecosystems. The MECN holds workshops on an annual basis, bringing together partners maintaining time-series and long-term datasets as well as end-users interested in outputs from the network. It was decided that the first workshop of the MECN continuation phase should consist of an evaluation of the time series and data sets maintained by partners in the MECN with regard to their ‘fit for purpose’ for answering key science questions and informing policy development. This report is based on the outcomes of the workshop. Section one of the report contains a brief introduction to monitoring, time series and long-term datasets. The various terms are defined and the need for MECN type data to complement compliance monitoring programmes is discussed. Outlines are also given of initiatives such as the United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS) and Oceans 2025. Section two contains detailed information for each of the MECN time series / long-term datasets including information on scientific outputs and current objectives. This information is mainly based on the presentations given at the workshop and therefore follows a format whereby the following headings are addressed: Origin of time series including original objectives; current objectives; policy relevance; products (advice, publications, science and society). Section three consists of comments made by the review panel concerning all the time series and the network. Needs or issues highlighted by the panel with regard to the future of long-term datasets and time-series in the UK are shown along with advice and potential solutions where offered. The recommendations are divided into 4 categories; ‘The MECN and end-user requirements’; ‘Procedures & protocols’; ‘Securing data series’ and ‘Future developments’. Ever since marine environmental protection issues really came to the fore in the 1960s, it has been recognised that there is a requirement for a suitable evidence base on environmental change in order to support policy and management for UK waters. Section four gives a brief summary of the development of marine policy in the UK along with comments on the availability and necessity of long-term marine observations for the implementation of this policy. Policy relating to three main areas is discussed; Marine Conservation (protecting biodiversity and marine ecosystems); Marine Pollution and Fisheries. The conclusion of this section is that there has always been a specific requirement for information on long-term change in marine ecosystems around the UK in order to address concerns over pollution, fishing and general conservation. It is now imperative that this need is addressed in order for the UK to be able to fulfil its policy commitments and manage marine ecosystems in the light of climate change and other factors.

Comparing copepod time-series in the north of Spain: Spatial autocorrelation of community composition

Four time-series of copepod species biomass in the north of Spain were contrasted to demonstrate spatial autocorrelation of local communities and their responses to short-term local and regional variability in oceanographic conditions. The series represented coastal and oceanic environments along a marked gradient of influence of seasonal upwelling from Galicia to the Mar Cantábrico (S Bay of Biscay), and each one included at least 10 years of continuous data collected at monthly frequency. Community composition (i.e. species number and diversity) was very consistent through the region, but local variations in the presence of new species and the relative proportions of common species allowed for the characterisation of the response to the environment at each site. Small-sized species were more frequent near the coast. A few species, however, captured the main patterns of variability in all series. Calanus helgolandicus and Acartia (mainly Acartia clausi) were generally the main contributors to total biomass, while other species as Paracalanus parvus and Clausocalanus spp. were important only at some locations. Most copepod indices were positively correlated with upwelling, either considering the whole community (biomass, species richness and diversity) or individual species, but only in the coastal series analysed since 1991. Copepods in the nearby ocean, however, showed negative correlations with upwelling in the period 1960–1986. The effects of upwelling may have been modulated by local factors, as showed by the increases in biomass, number of species and diversity in associations with increases in sea surface temperature in Galicia, while in the Mar Cantábrico only the warming-tolerant species increased and those typical of upwelling decreased. Density stratification of the water column was associated with decreases in total copepod biomass in Galicia, while it favoured the increase in species richness in the Mar Cantábrico. Nearly all significant responses of copepods to environmental variability were delayed by up to 5 months, showing the importance of considering time-lags in the analysis of temporal responses of zooplankton.

Long-Term Retrospective Analysis of Mackerel Spawning in the North Sea: A New Time Series and Modeling Approach to CPR Data

We present a unique view of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the North Sea based on a new time series of larvae caught by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey from 1948-2005, covering the period both before and after the collapse of the North Sea stock. Hydrographic backtrack modelling suggested that the effect of advection is very limited between spawning and larvae capture in the CPR survey. Using a statistical technique not previously applied to CPR data, we then generated a larval index that accounts for both catchability as well as spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The resulting time series documents the significant decrease of spawning from before 1970 to recent depleted levels. Spatial distributions of the larvae, and thus the spawning area, showed a shift from early to recent decades, suggesting that the central North Sea is no longer as important as the areas further west and south. These results provide a consistent and unique perspective on the dynamics of mackerel in this region and can potentially resolve many of the unresolved questions about this stock

The first time: young people and sex in Northern Ireland.

The sexual health of people, particularly young people, in Northern Ireland is currently poor. Yet there has been little research conducted on sexual attitudes and lifestyles. This paper is based on data from the first ever major research project in this field in Northern Ireland. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, it targeted young people aged 14-25. A combination of a self-administered survey questionnaire, focus group discussions and one-to-one interviews was found to be most suitable for the collection of sensitive data on sexuality in a country where the social and moral climate had previously prevented studies of this nature. Information was collected on sexual attitudes and behaviour generally. This paper focuses on one crucial issue: the age of first sexual encounter. It explores the attitudes of young people to that experience and the use of contraception. Many of the findings match those of similar large-scale surveys in England and Wales, including the modal age of first sexual encounter and the influence of peer pressure on decision-making about first sex. There were significant gender differences in both behaviour and attitudes. It is hoped that the research results will influence future education and health policy, which has all too often been based on ignorance.

Discrete-time modelling of woodwind instrument bores using wave variables

A method for simulation of acoustical bores, useful in the context of sound synthesis by physical modeling of woodwind instruments, is presented. As with previously developed methods, such as digital waveguide modeling (DWM) [Smith, Comput. Music J. 16, pp 74-91 (1992)] and the multi convolution algorithm (MCA) [Martinez et al., J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 84, pp 1620-1627 (1988)], the approach is based on a one-dimensional model of wave propagation in the bore. Both the DWM method and the MCA explicitly compute the transmission and reflection of wave variables that represent actual traveling pressure waves. The method presented in this report, the wave digital modeling (WDM) method, avoids the typical limitations associated with these methods by using a more general definition of the wave variables. An efficient and spatially modular discrete-time model is constructed from the digital representations of elemental bore units such as cylindrical sections, conical sections, and toneholes. Frequency-dependent phenomena, such as boundary losses, are approximated with digital filters. The stability of a simulation of a complete acoustic bore is investigated empirically. Results of the simulation of a full clarinet show that a very good concordance with classic transmission-line theory is obtained.

What is a reasonable time from decision to delivery by Caesarean section? Evidence from 533 deliveries.

Objective To determine how long it takes from the decision to achieve delivery by non-elective caesarean section (DDI), the influence on this interval, and the impact on neonatal condition at birth. Design Twelve months prospective data collection on all non-elective caesarean sections. Methods Prospective collection of data relating to all caesarean sections in 1996 in a major teaching hospital obstetric unit was conducted, without the knowledge of the other clinicians providing clinical care. Details of the indication for section, the day and time of the decision and the interval till delivery were recorded as well as the seniority of the surgeon, and condition of the baby at birth. Results The mean time from decision-to-delivery for 100 emergency intrapartum caesarean sections was 42.9 minutes for fetal distress and 71.1 minutes for 230 without fetal distress (P<0.0001). For 22 'crash' sections the mean time from decision-to-delivery was 27.4 minutes; for 13 urgent antepartum deliveries for fetal reasons it was 124.7 minutes and for 21 with maternal reasons it was 97.4 minutes. The seniority of the surgeon managing the patient did not appear to influence the interval, nor did the time of day or day of the week when the delivery occurred. Intrapartum sections were quicker the more advanced the labour, and general anaesthesia was associated with shorter intervals than regional anaesthesia for emergency caesarean section for fetal distress (P<0.001). Babies born within one hour of the decision tended to be more acidaemic than those born later, irrespective of the indication for delivery. Babies tended to be in better condition when a time from decision-to-delivery was not recorded than those for whom the information had been recorded. Conclusion Fewer than 40% intrapartum deliveries by caesarean section for fetal distress were achieved within 30 minutes of the decision, despite that being the unit standard. There was, however, no evidence to indicate that overall an interval up to 120 minutes was detrimental to the neonate unless the delivery was a 'crash' caesarean section. These data thus do not provide evidence to sustain the recommendation of a standard of 30 minutes for intrapartum delivery by caesarean section.

Identification of an unknown b-agonist in feed by liquid chromatography/bioassay/quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry with accurate mass measurement.

A new approach to the search for residues of unknown growth promoting agents such as anabolic steroids and -agonists in feed is presented. Following primary extraction and clean-up, samples are separated using gradient liquid chromatography (LC). The effluent is split towards two identical 96-well fraction collectors and an optional electrospray quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (QTOFMS) system for accurate mass measurement. One 96-well plate is used for a bioassay (enzyme-immuno assay, receptor assay) and will detect the bioactivity and position of the relevant peak in the chromatogram. The positive well in the second 96-well plate is used for identification by LC/QTOFMS/MS. The value of this LC/bioassay/QTOFMS/MS methodology is highlighted by the finding and structure elucidation of a new -agonist in a feed extract.

Escape times for rigid Brownian rotators in a bistable potential from the time evolution of the Green function and the characteristic time of the probability evolution

The greatest relaxation time for an assembly of three- dimensional rigid rotators in an axially symmetric bistable potential is obtained exactly in terms of continued fractions as a sum of the zero frequency decay functions (averages of the Legendre polynomials) of the system. This is accomplished by studying the entire time evolution of the Green function (transition probability) by expanding the time dependent distribution as a Fourier series and proceeding to the zero frequency limit of the Laplace transform of that distribution. The procedure is entirely analogous to the calculation of the characteristic time of the probability evolution (the integral of the configuration space probability density function with respect to the position co-ordinate) for a particle undergoing translational diffusion in a potential; a concept originally used by Malakhov and Pankratov (Physica A 229 (1996) 109). This procedure allowed them to obtain exact solutions of the Kramers one-dimensional translational escape rate problem for piecewise parabolic potentials. The solution was accomplished by posing the problem in terms of the appropriate Sturm-Liouville equation which could be solved in terms of the parabolic cylinder functions. The method (as applied to rotational problems and posed in terms of recurrence relations for the decay functions, i.e., the Brinkman approach c.f. Blomberg, Physica A 86 (1977) 49, as opposed to the Sturm-Liouville one) demonstrates clearly that the greatest relaxation time unlike the integral relaxation time which is governed by a single decay function (albeit coupled to all the others in non-linear fashion via the underlying recurrence relation) is governed by a sum of decay functions. The method is easily generalized to multidimensional state spaces by matrix continued fraction methods allowing one to treat non-axially symmetric potentials, where the distribution function is governed by two state variables. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconfiguring Older Bodies in the Prison Time Machine

It is by mapping an area that the geographer comes to understand the contours and formations of a place. The “place” in this case is the prison world. This article serves to map moments in prison demonstrating how “old” female bodies are performed under the prison gaze. In this article I will illustrate how older women subvert, negotiate, or invoke discourse as a means of reinscribing the normalizing discourses that serve to confine and define older women's experiences in prison. Female elders in prison become defined and confined by regimes of femininity and ageism. They have to endure symbolic and actual intrusions of physical privacy, which serve to remind them of what they were, where they are, and what they have become. This article will critically explore the complexity and contradictions of time use in prison and how they impact on embodied identities. By incorporating the voices of elders, I hope to draw out the contradictions and dilemmas which they experience, thereby illustrating the relationship between time, their involvement in doing time, and the performance of time in a total institution (see Goffman, 1961), and the relationship between temporality and existence. The stories of the women show how their identities are caught within the movement and motion of time and space, both in terms of the time of “the real” on the outside and within prison time. This is the in-between space of carceral time within which women live and which they negotiate. It is by being caught in this network of carceral time that they are constantly being “remade” as their body/performance of identities alters within it. While only a small percentage of the female prison population in the United Kingdom are in later life, one has to question why criminological and gerontological literature fail to address the needs of a growing significant minority.

Peer-mentoring for first-time mothers from areas of socio-economic disadvantage: a qualitative study within a randomised controlled trial

Objective: To explore the difficulties experienced by lay-workers, women and health professionals involved in a peer-mentoring programme for first-time mothers living in socially disadvantaged areas. Design: Qualitative study; semi-structured interviews with lay-worker peer-mentoring programme participants at two separate stages of the programme (antenatal and postnatal). Setting: Community based. Participants: 11 women receiving peer-mentoring support (from first hospital antenatal visit to one year postnatal); 11 lay-workers; 2 research midwives. Results: Lay-workers had difficulty initiating contact with women and failure to establish contact affected their morale adversely. They felt that women understood their intended role poorly and attempted to develop relationships with them by sharing personal experiences and offering friendship; women who participated in the programme appreciated this. Developing a peer-mentor relationship was difficult if women lacked interest in the programme or in continuing contact. External influences on peer-mentoring uptake and delivery included family and friends who could prevent or encourage women’s participation and cause difficulties for the lay-worker both in delivering support and arranging follow-up. Lay-workers providing support to women from a different ethnic background experienced difficulties relating to both language and culture: these were perceived to affect peer-mentor relationships adversely. Major personal difficulties for lay-workers related to time constraints in reconciling mentoring requirements with demands of family and other work. Informing midwives of these difficulties helped identify solutions through training and ongoing professional support for the lay-workers. Conclusions: Lay-worker peer support is appreciated by first time mothers but difficulties in initiating contact, developing peer-mentor relationships and external influences such as family, ethnicity and time constraints are relevant to poor uptake and high staff turnover. In developing peer support programmes, awareness of potential difficulties and of how professional support can help resolve these should improve uptake and thus optimise the evaluations of their effectiveness.

Bimanual aiming and overt attention: one law for two hands

Reaching to interact with an object requires a compromise between the speed of the limb movement and the required end-point accuracy. The time it takes one hand to move to a target in a simple aiming task can be predicted reliably from Fitts' law, which states that movement time is a function of a combined measure of amplitude and accuracy constraints (the index of difficulty, ID). It has been assumed previously that Fitts' law is violated in bimanual aiming movements to targets of unequal ID. We present data from two experiments to show that this assumption is incorrect: if the attention demands of a bimanual aiming task are constant then the movements are well described by a Fitts' law relationship. Movement time therefore depends not only on ID but on other task conditions, which is a basic feature of Fitts' law. In a third experiment we show that eye movements are an important determinant of the attention demands in a bimanual aiming task. The results from the third experiment extend the findings of the first two experiments and show that bimanual aiming often relies on the strategic co-ordination of separate actions into a seamless behaviour. A number of the task specific strategies employed by the adult human nervous system were elucidated in the third experiment. The general strategic pattern observed in the hand trajectories was reflected by the pattern of eye movements recorded during the experiment. The results from all three experiments demonstrate that eye movements must be considered as an important constraint in bimanual aiming tasks.

One-dimensional particle simulation of the filamentation instability: Electrostatic field driven by the magnetic pressure gradient force

Two counterpropagating cool and equally dense electron beams are modeled with particle-in-cell simulations. The electron beam filamentation instability is examined in one spatial dimension, which is an approximation for a quasiplanar filament boundary. It is confirmed that the force on the electrons imposed by the electrostatic field, which develops during the nonlinear stage of the instability, oscillates around a mean value that equals the magnetic pressure gradient force. The forces acting on the electrons due to the electrostatic and the magnetic field have a similar strength. The electrostatic field reduces the confining force close to the stable equilibrium of each filament and increases it farther away, limiting the peak density. The confining time-averaged total potential permits an overlap of current filaments with an opposite flow direction.

The relationship between counterfactual thinking and emotional reactions to event outcomes: Does one account fit all?

By enabling a comparison between what is and what might have been, counterfactual thoughts amplify our emotional responses to bad outcomes. Well-known demonstrations such as the action effect (the tendency to attribute most regret to a character whose actions brought about a bad outcome) and the temporal order effect (the tendency to undo the last in a series of events leading up to a bad outcome) are often explained in this way. An important difference between these effects is that outcomes are due to decisions in the action effect, whereas in the temporal order effect outcomes are achieved by chance. In Experiment 1, we showed that imposing time pressure leads to a significant reduction in the action but not in the temporal order effect. In Experiment 2, we found that asking participants to evaluate the protagonists (

40 years is an awful long time

ABSTRACT: Older people who are caring for their adult sons and daughters with disabilities are under tremendous stress because they may suffer health problems themselves; have financial problems due a lifetime of caring; may have to care on their own due to the death of their spouse; worry about the future care of their child; and may feel uncomfortable approaching professionals for help. Professionals working with these families need to take contextual pressures into consideration when planning intervention. Twenty-nine parents of 27 adults with intellectual and/or developmental disabilities (including autism) were asked about present care and service arrangements, health issues, family support, and “futures planning.” The research reported here identifies complex networks of relationships. Virtual absence of structured futures planning was one of the key issues. Recommendations are made for professionals working in this field.

Best of the old alongside the new: training for part-time youth workers

Set against the dearth of published research into the effectiveness of youth leadership training programmes, the present study describes how a comprehensive evaluation model was utilised to evaluate one such programme in Northern Ireland over a 3-year period. The training welds together a traditional curriculum approach and a competence-based methodology to provide an integrated experience for the part-time youth worker participants (n = 128). Self-completion questionnaires and follow-up interviews with a random sample of these youth workers and their supervisors were used to collect data. Outcomes suggest that the synthesis of these two training strategies is not only effective in meeting the learning needs of youth workers, but also leads to identifiable improvements in the range and quality of youth work programmes available to young people