A multiple time scale survival model with a cure fraction

Many recent survival studies propose modeling data with a cure fraction, i.e., data in which part of the population is not susceptible to the event of interest. This event may occur more than once for the same individual (recurrent event). We then have a scenario of recurrent event data in the presence of a cure fraction, which may appear in various areas such as oncology, finance, industries, among others. This paper proposes a multiple time scale survival model to analyze recurrent events using a cure fraction. The objective is analyzing the efficiency of certain interventions so that the studied event will not happen again in terms of covariates and censoring. All estimates were obtained using a sampling-based approach, which allows information to be input beforehand with lower computational effort. Simulations were done based on a clinical scenario in order to observe some frequentist properties of the estimation procedure in the presence of small and moderate sample sizes. An application of a well-known set of real mammary tumor data is provided.

Steam explosion pretreatment reproduction and alkaline delignification reactions performed on a pilot scale with sugarcane bagasse for bioethanol production

This work was focused on the steam explosion pretreatment reproduction and alkaline delignification reactions on a pilot scale for the ethanol production, through different varieties of natural sugarcane bagasse, pretreated bagasse and delignified pretreated bagasse (cellulosic pulp). The possible chemical composition differences of the various types of bagasse, as well as the chemical composition variations of the materials in the 20 processes of pretreatment and delignification on the pilot scale were verified. The analytical results of the 20 samples of most diverse varieties and origins of natural sugarcane bagasse considering planting soils, planting periods and weather; show no significant chemical differences. It is evident that only with the chemical composition it is not possible to verify the differences between the varieties of sugarcane bagasses. The research results may offer some evidences of these varieties, but it is not a reliable parameter. The pilot process of steam explosion pretreatment and the alkaline delignification process of pretreated material showed through analytical results a good capacity of reproduction, as the standard differences were below 2.7. The average allowed in the pretreatment and alkaline delignification processes were 66.1 +/- 0.8 and 51.5 +/- 2.6 respectively, ensuring an excellent reproduction capacity of the processes obtained through chemical characterizations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of Si addition on Ca- and P-impregnated implant surfaces with nanometer-scale roughness: an experimental study in dogs

Objectives: To investigate the effect of Si addition on a nanometer-scale roughness Ca and P implant surfaces in a canine tibia model by biomechanical and histomorphometric evaluations. Material and methods: The implant surfaces comprised a resorbable media CaP microblasted (control) and a CaP resorbable media + silica-boost microblasted (experimental) surfaces. Surfaces were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and optical interferometry (IFM) down to the nanometric level. The animal model involved the bilateral placement of control (n = 24) and experimental surface (n = 24) implants along the proximal tibiae of six dogs, remaining in vivo for 2 or 4 weeks. After euthanization, half of the specimens were torquedto- interface failure, and the other half was subjected to histomorphologic and bone-to-implant contact (BIC) evaluation. Torque and BIC statistical evaluation was performed by the Friedman test at 95% level of significance, and comparisons between groups was performed by the Dunn test. Results: IFM and SEM observations depicted comparable roughness parameters for both implant surfaces on the micrometer and nanometer scales. XPS analysis revealed similar chemical composition, except for the addition of Si on the experimental group. Torque-to-interface failure and BIC mean values showed no significant differences (P = 0.25 and 0.51, respectively) at both 2- and 4-week evaluation points for experimental and control groups. Early bone healing histomorphologic events were similar between groups. Conclusions: The experimental surface resulted in not significantly different biomechanical fixation and BIC relative to control. Both surfaces were biocompatible and osseoconductive.

The influence of large-scale circulation, transient and local processes on the seasonal circulation of the Eastern Brazilian Shelf, 13 degrees S

The circulation at the Eastern Brazilian Shelf (EBS), near 13 degrees S, is discussed in terms of the currents and hydrography, associating large-scale circulation, transient and local processes to establish a regional picture of the EBS circulation. The results show that the circulation within the continental shelf and slope region is strongly affected by the seasonal changes in the wind field and mesa/large-scale circulation. Transient processes associated to the passage of Cold Front systems or meso-scale activity and the presence of a local canyon add more complexity to the system. During the austral spring and summer seasons, the prevailing upwelling favorable winds blowing from E-NE were responsible for driving southwestward shelf currents. The interaction with the Western Boundary Current (the Brazil Current), especially during summer, was significant and a considerable vertical shear in the velocity field was observed at the outer shelf. The passage of a Cold Front system during the springtime caused a complete reversal of the mean flow and contributed to the deepening of the Mixed Layer Depth (MLD). In addition, the presence of Salvador Canyon, subject to an upwelling favorable boundary current, enhanced the upwelling system, when compared to the upwelling observed at the adjacent shelf. During the austral autumn and winter seasons the prevailing downwelling favorable winds blowing from the SE acted to total reverse the shelf circulation, resulting in a northeastward flow. The passage of a strong Cold Front, during the autumn season, contributed not only to the strengthening of the flow but also to the deepening of the MLD. The presence of the Salvador Canyon, when subject to a downwelling favorable boundary current, caused an intensification of the downwelling process. Interestingly, the alongshore velocity at the shelf region adjacent to the head of the canyon was less affected when compared to the upwelling situation.

Milk hygienic practices and occurrence of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in small-scale dairy farms in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between somatic cell counts (SCC), the use of different milking practices, and the occurrence of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli O157:H7 in 42 small-scale dairy farms located in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. S. aureus and E. coli O157:H7 were isolated in the milk from dairy cows with low (< 200,000 cells/ml) and high SCC (>200,000 cells/ml), although no effect of SCC (p > 0.05) was observed on the incidence of the bacteria in raw milk. The use of disposable gloves during milking reduced S. aureus counts in milk (p < 0.05), but did not affect the occurrence of E. coli O157:H7. The other milking practices evaluated (closed milking system, use of pre- and post-dipping, mastitis diagnosis by strip cup test, and disinfection of teat cups) did not affect (p < 0.05) the occurrence of S. aureus or E. coli O157:H7 in raw milk. Results indicate the need for effective educational programs addressed to prevent the contamination of milk with S. aureus and E. coli O157:H7 in Brazilian small-scale dairy farms.

Aerial Rivers and Lakes: Looking at Large-Scale Moisture Transport and Its Relation to Amazonia and to Subtropical Rainfall in South America

This is an observational study of the large-scale moisture transport over South America, with some analyses on its relation to subtropical rainfall. The concept of aerial rivers is proposed as a framework: it is an analogy between the main pathways of moisture flow in the atmosphere and surface rivers. Opposite to surface rivers, aerial rivers gain (lose) water through evaporation (precipitation). The magnitude of the vertically integrated moisture transport is discharge, and precipitable water is like the mass of the liquid column-multiplied by an equivalent speed it gives discharge. Trade wind flow into Amazonia, and the north/northwesterly flow to the subtropics, east of the Andes, are aerial rivers. Aerial lakes are the sections of a moisture pathway where the flow slows down and broadens, because of diffluence, and becomes deeper, with higher precipitable water. This is the case over Amazonia, downstream of the trade wind confluence. In the dry season, moisture from the aerial lake is transported northeastward, but weaker flow over southern Amazonia heads southward toward the subtropics. Southern Amazonia appears as a source of moisture to this flow. Aerial river discharge to the subtropics is comparable to that of the Amazon River. The variations of the amount of moisture coming from Amazonia have an important effect over the variability of discharge. Correlations between the flow from Amazonia and subtropical rainfall are not strong. However, some months within the set of dry seasons observed showed a strong increase (decrease) occurring together with an important increase (decrease) in subtropical rainfall.

DTI voxelwise analysis did not differentiate older depressed patients from older subjects without depression

Introduction: Neuroimaging has been widely used in studies to investigate depression in the elderly because it is a noninvasive technique, and it allows the detection of structural and functional brain alterations. Fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) are neuroimaging indexes of the microstructural integrity of white matter, which are measured using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). The aim of this study was to investigate differences in FA or MD in the entire brain without a previously determined region of interest (ROI) between depressed and non-depressed elderly patients. Method: Brain magnetic resonance imaging scans were obtained from 47 depressed elderly patients, diagnosed according to DSM-IV criteria, and 36 healthy elderly patients as controls. Voxelwise statistical analysis of FA data was performed using tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS). Results: After controlling for age, no significant differences among FA and MD parameters were observed in the depressed elderly patients. No significant correlations were found between cognitive performance and FA or MD parameters. Conclusion: There were no significant differences among FA or MD values between mildly or moderately depressed and non-depressed elderly patients when the brain was analyzed without a previously determined ROI. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Millennial-scale climate cycles in Permian-Carboniferous rhythmites: Permanent feature throughout geologic time?

Two late Paleozoic glacial rhythmite successions from the Itarare Group (Parana Basin, Brazil) were examined for paleoclimate variations. Paleomagnetic (characteristic remanent magnetization, ChRM) and magnetic susceptibility (K(z)) measurements taken from the rhythmites are interpreted as paleoclimatic proxies. Ratios of low-frequency components in the K(z) variations suggest Milankovitch periodicities; this leads to recognition of other, millennial-scale variations reminiscent of abrupt climate changes during late Quaternary time, and are suggestive of Bond cycles and the 2.4 k.y. solar cycle. We infer from these patterns that millennial-scale climate change is not restricted to the Quaternary Period, and that millennial forcing mechanisms may have been prevalent throughout geologic time.

Auditory brainstem implant outcomes and MAP parameters: Report of experiences in adults and children

The auditory brainstem implant (ABI) was first developed to help neurofibromatosis type 2 patients. Recently, its use has been recently extended to adults with non-tumor etiologies and children with profound hearing loss who were not candidates for a cochlear implant (Cl). Although the results has been extensively reported, the stimulation parameters involved behind the outcomes have received less attention. Objective: The aim of this study is to describe the audiologic outcomes and the MAP parameters in ABI adults and children at our center. Methods: Retrospective chart review. Five adults and four children were implanted with the ABI24M from September 2005 to June 2009. In the adult patients, four had Neurofibromatosis type 2, and one had postmeningitic deafness with complete ossification of both cochleae. Three of the children had cochlear malformation or dysplasia, and one had complete ossified cochlea due to meningitis. Map parameters as well as the intraoperative electrical auditory brainstem responses were collected. Evaluation was performed with at least six months of device use and included free-field hearing thresholds, speech perception tests in the adult patients and for the children, the Infant-Toddler Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale (IT-MAIS) and (ESP) were used to evaluate the development of auditory skills, besides the MUSS to evaluate. Results: The number of active electrodes that did not cause any non-auditory sensation varied from three to nineteen. All of them were programmed with SPEAK strategy, and the pulse widths varied from 100 to 300 mu s. Free-field thresholds with warble tones varied from very soft auditory sensation of 70 dBHL at 250 Hz to a pure tone average of 45 dBHL. Speech perception varied from none to 60% open-set recognition of sentences in silence in the adult population and from no auditory sensation at all to a slight improvement in the IT-MAIS/MAIS scores. Conclusion: We observed that ABI may be a good option for offering some hearing attention to both adults and children. In children, the results might not be enough to ensure oral language development. Programming the speech processor in children demands higher care to the audiologist. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Usable work of macro-scale cavities in liquids

It is shown that the generation of cavities in a liquid can produce usable work, which is illustrated by the stretching of a string. This work is done during the expansion of the cavity, and not with its collapse. Basic equations are presented for the movement of a device moved by the so called cavity events. A theoretical solution is also proposed, which uses polynomial functions relating the so called "excess of pressure" in the cavity and time. Evaluations of the force generated during the expansion of the cavity showed a mean peak value of about 58 N for the moving container, while measurements with the container fixed to a support showed a peak value of 476 N, considered somewhat overestimated, because high frequency oscillations seem to superpose the mean behavior. Simultaneous phenomena occurring during the cavity events are also described. Series of pictures of the experiments are presented.

Bird species diversity in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil is not explained by the Mid-domain Effect

The Atlantic Forest is an excellent case study for the elevational diversity of birds, and some inventories along elevational gradients have been carried out in Brazil. Since none of these studies explain the patterns of species richness with elevation, we herein review all Brazilian studies on bird elevational diversity, and test a geometric constraint null model that predicts a unimodal species-altitude curve, the Mid-domain Effect (MDE). We searched for bird inventories in the literature and also analysed our own survey data using limited-radius point counts along an 800 m elevational gradient in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. We found 10 investigations of elevational diversity of Atlantic Forest birds and identified five different elevational patterns: monotonic decreasing diversity, constant at low elevations, constant at low elevations but increasing towards the middle, and two undescribed patterns for Atlantic Forest birds, trough-shaped and increasing diversity. The average MDE fit was low (r² = 0.31) and none of the MDE predictions were robust across all gradients. Those studies with good MDE model fits had obvious sampling bias. Although it has been proposed that the MDE may be positively associated with the elevational diversity of birds, it does not fit the Brazilian Atlantic Forest bird elevational diversity.

Aerosols in Amazonia: Natural Biogenic Particles and Large Scale Biomass Burning Impacts.

The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a long term (20 years) research effort aimed at the understanding of the functioning of the Amazonian ecosystem. In particular, the strong biosphere-atmosphere interaction is a key component looking at the exchange processes between vegetation and the atmosphere, focusing on aerosol particles. Two aerosol components are the most visible: The natural biogenic emissions of aerosols and VOCs, and the biomass burning emissions. A large effort was done to characterize natural biogenic aerosols that showed detailed organic characterization and optical properties. The biomass burning component in Amazonia is important in term of aerosol and trace gases emissions, with deforestation rates decreasing, from 27,000 Km2 in 2004 to about 5,000 Km2 in 2011. Biomass burning emissions in Amazonia increases concentrations of aerosol particles, CO, ozone and other species, and also change the surface radiation balance in a significant way. Long term monitoring of aerosols and trace gases were performed in two sites: a background site in Central Amazonia, 55 Km North of Manaus (called ZF2 ecological reservation) and a monitoring station in Porto Velho, Rondonia state, a site heavily impacted by biomass burning smoke. Several instruments were operated to measured aerosol size distribution, optical properties (absorption and scattering at several wavelengths), composition of organic (OC/EC) and inorganic components among other measurements. AERONET and MODIS measurements from 5 long term sites show a large year-to year variability due to climatic and socio-economic issues. Aerosol optical depths of more than 4 at 550nm was observed frequently over biomass burning areas. In the pristine Amazonian atmosphere, aerosol scattering coefficients ranged between 1 and 200 Mm-1 at 450 nm, while absorption ranged between 1 and 20 Mm-1 at 637 nm. A strong seasonal behavior was observed, with greater aerosol loadings during the dry season (Jul-Nov) as compared to the wet season (Dec-Jun). During the wet season in Manaus, aerosol scattering (450 nm) and absorption (637 nm) coefficients averaged, respectively, 14 and 0.9 Mm-1. Angstrom exponents for scattering were lower during the wet season (1.6) in comparison to the dry season (1.9), which is consistent with the shift from biomass burning aerosols, predominant in the fine mode, to biogenic aerosols, predominant in the coarse mode. Single scattering albedo, calculated at 637 nm, did not show a significant seasonal variation, averaging 0.86. In Porto Velho, even in the wet season it was possible to observe an impact from anthropogenic aerosol. Black Carbon was measured at a high 20 ug/m³ in the dry season, showing strong aerosol absorption. This work presents a general description of the aerosol optical properties in Amazonia, both during the Amazonian wet and dry seasons.

Small-scale landfills: impacts on groundwater and soil

In Brazil, the large quantities of solid waste produced are out of step with public policies, technological developments, and government budgets for the division. In small municipalities, the common lack of technological knowledge and financial conditions for suitable waste disposal has resulted in a large number of illegal dumps. Therefore, small sanitary landfill facilities are working with simplified operations focusing on cost reduction and meeting the economic and technological standards of the city without endangering the environment or public health. Currently, this activity is regulated at a federal level although there is some uncertainty regarding the risk of soil and aquifer contamination as theses facilities do not employ liners. Thus, this work evaluates a small landfill to identify changes in soil and groundwater using geotechnical parameters, monitoring wells, and geophysical tests performed by electrical profiling. It is verified that based on current conditions, no contaminants have migrated via underground water aquifers, and overall no significant changes have occurred in the soil. It is concluded that, despite its simplicity, the method investigated is a viable alternative for the final disposal of municipal solid waste from small cities, especially in developing countries.

Bovine Teeth in Age Assessment, from Medieval Cattle to Belgian Blue : Methodology, Possibilities and Limitations

The overall aim of the present thesis was to develop and characterise an age assessment method based on incremental lines in dental cementum using contemporary bovine teeth and teeth from archaeological faunal assemblages. The investigations also included two other age assessment methods: tooth wear pattern and macroscopic dental measurements. The first permanent mandibular molar and lower jaws from 70 contemporary cattle of known age and 170 archaeological molar sets from ten different Swedish archaeological sites were used. The following conclusions were drawn: • The number of incremental lines in the dental cementum varied between different parts of the tooth root as well as within one and the same individual. The results from contemporary cattle of known age showed a strong relationship between age and incremental lines in the cementum of the distal part of the mesial root (R2=65.5%) and the known ages of the animals. • With the “best” model variation in age could be explained to 65.5% (R2) by the number of incremental lines. Thus, the remaining age variation (approximately 35%) could not be explained by these lines. Other factors than must thus be responsible. However, with the exception of calves born the present material did not reveal any such significant relationship. • The results from cattle of known age indicate that the method of assessing age on the basis of cemental incremental lines is more reliable than other methods such as tooth wear or tooth measurements. However, by combining counting incremental lines and one variable assessing tooth dimension (tooth height) a slightly stronger relationship could be obtained (R2=74.5%). The results from age assessment of the medieval and post-Reformation cattle emphasize the importance of supplementing any age estimation of archaeological assemblages based on dental indicators with characteristics for the particular assessment model. Furthermore, conclusions based on age assessment with such models can not be drawn with any more detailed time scale than about 2 years leaving at best only 25% (R2) of factors influencing the dental indicator(s) utilized in the model unexplained. The accuracy of the age assessment required by the particular historical context in which the archaeological remains are found should thus decide what level of accuracy should be chosen.

Horn-schunck optical flow with a multi-scale strategy

[EN] The seminal work of Horn and Schunck [8] is the first variational method for optical flow estimation. It introduced a novel framework where the optical flow is computed as the solution of a minimization problem. From the assumption that pixel intensities do not change over time, the optical flow constraint equation is derived. This equation relates the optical flow with the derivatives of the image. There are infinitely many vector fields that satisfy the optical flow constraint, thus the problem is ill-posed. To overcome this problem, Horn and Schunck introduced an additional regularity condition that restricts the possible solutions. Their method minimizes both the optical flow constraint and the magnitude of the variations of the flow field, producing smooth vector fields. One of the limitations of this method is that, typically, it can only estimate small motions. In the presence of large displacements, this method fails when the gradient of the image is not smooth enough. In this work, we describe an implementation of the original Horn and Schunck method and also introduce a multi-scale strategy in order to deal with larger displacements. For this multi-scale strategy, we create a pyramidal structure of downsampled images and change the optical flow constraint equation with a nonlinear formulation. In order to tackle this nonlinear formula, we linearize it and solve the method iteratively in each scale. In this sense, there are two common approaches: one that computes the motion increment in the iterations, like in ; or the one we follow, that computes the full flow during the iterations, like in. The solutions are incrementally refined ower the scales. This pyramidal structure is a standard tool in many optical flow methods.