Sea surface temperature reconstruction based on planktonic foraminifera of surface sediments and sediment cores off Iberia

Quantitative and qualitative analyses of planktonic foraminiferal assemblages from 134 core-top sediment samples collected along the western Iberian margin were used to assess the latitudinal and longitudinal changes in surface water conditions and to calibrate a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) transfer function for this seasonal coastal upwelling region. Q-mode factor analysis performed on relative abundances yielded three factors that explain 96% of the total variance: factor 1 (50%) is exclusively defined by Globigerina bulloides, the most abundant and widespread species, and reflects the modern seasonal (May to September) coastal upwelling areas; factor 2 (32%) is dominated by Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (dextral) and Globorotalia inflata and seems to be associated with the Portugal Current, the descending branch of the North Atlantic Drift; factor 3 (14%) is defined by the tropical-sub-tropical species Globigerinoides ruber (white), Globigerinoides trilobus trilobus, and G. inflata and mirrors the influence of the winter-time eastern branch of the Azores Current. In conjunction with satellite-derived SST for summer and winter seasons integrated over an 18 year period the regional foraminiferal data set is used to calibrate a SST transfer function using Imbrie & Kipp, MAT and SIMMAX(ndw) techniques. Similar predicted errors (RMSEP), correlation coefficients, and residuals' deviation from SST estimated for both techniques were observed for both seasons. All techniques appear to underestimate SST off the southern Iberia margin, an area mainly occupied by warm waters where upwelling occurs only occasionally, and overestimate SST on the northern part of the west coast of the Iberia margin, where cold waters are present nearly all year round. The comparison of these regional calibrations with former Atlantic and North Atlantic calibrations for two cores, one of which is influenced by upwelling, reveals that the regional one attests more robust paleo-SSTs than for the other approaches.

Multivariate Appoximations to Portfolio Return Distribution

This article proposes a three-step procedure to estimate portfolio return distributions under the multivariate Gram-Charlier (MGC) distribution. The method combines quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation for conditional means and variances and the method of moments (MM) estimation for the rest of the density parameters, including the correlation coefficients. The procedure involves consistent estimates even under density misspecification and solves the so-called ‘curse of dimensionality’ of multivariate modelling. Furthermore, the use of a MGC distribution represents a flexible and general approximation to the true distribution of portfolio returns and accounts for all its empirical regularities. An application of such procedure is performed for a portfolio composed of three European indices as an illustration. The MM estimation of the MGC (MGC-MM) is compared with the traditional maximum likelihood of both the MGC and multivariate Student’s t (benchmark) densities. A simulation on Value-at-Risk (VaR) performance for an equally weighted portfolio at 1% and 5% confidence indicates that the MGC-MM method provides reasonable approximations to the true empirical VaR. Therefore, the procedure seems to be a useful tool for risk managers and practitioners.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Climate change-related regime shifts have altered spatial synchrony of plankton dynamics in the North Sea

During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.

Incomplete DJH rearrangements as a novel tumor target for minimal residual disease quantitation in multiple myeloma using real-time PCR.

The hypervariable regions of immunoglobulin heavy-chain (IgH) rearrangements provide a specific tumor marker in multiple myeloma (MM). Recently, real-time PCR assays have been developed in order to quantify the number of tumor cells after treatment. However, these strategies are hampered by the presence of somatic hypermutation (SH) in VDJH rearrangements from multiple myeloma (MM) patients, which causes mismatches between primers and/or probes and the target, leading to a nonaccurate quantification of tumor cells. Our group has recently described a 60% incidence of incomplete DJH rearrangements in MM patients, with no or very low rates of SH. In this study, we compare the efficiency of a real-time PCR approach for the analysis of both complete and incomplete IgH rearrangements in eight MM patients using only three JH consensus probes. We were able to design an allele-specific oligonucleotide for both the complete and incomplete rearrangement in all patients. DJH rearrangements fulfilled the criteria of effectiveness for real-time PCR in all samples (ie no unspecific amplification, detection of less than 10 tumor cells within 10(5) polyclonal background and correlation coefficients of standard curves higher than 0.98). By contrast, only three out of eight VDJH rearrangements fulfilled these criteria. Further analyses showed that the remaining five VDJH rearrangements carried three or more somatic mutations in the probe and primer sites, leading to a dramatic decrease in the melting temperature. These results support the use of incomplete DJH rearrangements instead of complete somatically mutated VDJH rearrangements for investigation of minimal residual disease in multiple myeloma.

Credibilidade não linear para as metas de inflação no Brasil

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a credibilidade do regime de metas de inflação no Brasil e propor um novo método de mensurá-la. Para tanto revisamos alguns índices de credibilidade anteriormente propostos para o país. Uma limitação comum a esses índices é o pressuposto de uma relação linear da credibilidade com os desvios da meta central de inflação. Neste sentido, é proposto um novo índice no qual a credibilidade depende de forma não linear dos afastamentos da meta e calculado o índice para o período de 2001 a 2012. Em um estudo comparativo, utilizando variáveis relacionadas à credibilidade, encontramos coeficientes de correlação maiores para o novo índice. Também se identificou uma alta credibilidade da política monetá- ria para o Brasil nos últimos anos.

'Movie Recommendation Systems Using An Artificial Immune System'

We apply the Artificial Immune System (AIS)technology to the collaborative Filtering (CF)technology when we build the movie recommendation system. Two different affinity measure algorithms of AIS, Kendall tau and Weighted Kappa, are used to calculate the correlation coefficients for this movie recommendation system. From the testing we think that Weighted Kappa is more suitable than Kendall tau for movie problems.

'On Affinity Measures for Artificial Immune System Movie Recommenders'

Abstract. We combine Artificial Immune Systems (AIS) technology with Collaborative Filtering (CF) and use it to build a movie recommendation system. We already know that Artificial Immune Systems work well as movie recommenders from previous work by Cayzer and Aickelin ([3], [4], [5]). Here our aim is to investigate the effect of different affinity measure algorithms for the AIS. Two different affinity measures, Kendall's Tau and Weighted Kappa, are used to calculate the correlation coefficients for the movie recommender. We compare the results with those published previously and show that that Weighted Kappa is more suitable than others for movie problems. We also show that AIS are generally robust movie recommenders and that, as long as a suitable affinity measure is chosen, results are good.

Multi-residue analysis of 39 pesticides in surface waters of Ria de Aveiro

A multi-residue gas chromatography-mass spectrometry method was developed in order to evaluate the presence of 39 pesticides of different chemical families (organophosphorus, triazines, imidazole, organochlorine), as well as some of their transformation products, in surface water samples from Ria de Aveiro. Ria de Aveiro is an estuarine coastal lagoon, located in the northern west region of Portugal, which receives inputs from agriculture, urban and industrial activities. The analytical method was developed and validated according international guidelines and showed good linearity, with correlation coefficients higher than 0.9949 for all compounds, adequate precision and accuracy, and high sensitivity. Pesticides were chosen from the priority pollutants list of the Directive 2008/105/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council (on environmental quality standards in the field of water policy), or were selected due their common use in agricultural practices. Some of these 39 pesticides are, or are suspected to be, endocrine disruptor compounds (EDCs), being capable of altering the endocrine system of wildlife and humans, causing form malfunction and ultimately health problems. Even those pesticides which are not EDCs, are known to be awfully toxic and have a recognised impact in human health. The aquatic environment is particularly susceptible to pollution due to intentional and accidental release of chemicals to water [3]. Pesticide contamination of surface water is a national issue as it is often used as drinking water. This concern is especially important in rural agricultural areas where population uses small private water supplies, regularly without any laboratory surveillance. The study was performed in seven sampling points and the results showed a considerable concern pesticide contamination of all samples.

Interação genótipo-ambiente na densidade de gemas e comprimento de ramos de pessegueiro

The instability of environment between years in climates of subtropical regions difficult to obtain peach trees genotypes with wide adaptation and stable production, contributing to poor crop. The climate instability can affect development stages as flower bud and vegetative bud formation. The factors understanding that control the bud formation, presents elementary importance for effective solutions search to these problems. The objective this work is verify the temperature effect, relative humidity and rainfall on bud density and length shoot (Brindilas) and identify genotypes with more adaptability and stability for this character. Was used 12 peach trees genotypes growing in experimental orchard in the Technology Federal of Paraná State University, Campus Pato Branco with Cfa Köppen climate according to the classification. Data of rainfall, hourly temperature were collected by the weather station of Simepar. They were used three plants for genotype (rehearsal), identify five shoots per tree, in May of each year. Were carried analyzes of length shoot CR (cm), count number of flower bud (GF) and vegetative bud (GV). Also calculated the relationship between GF/GV and flower bud density and vegetative bud density. Evaluations were performer annual 2007-2014. With these data adaptability and stability analyzes were performed using Biplot methodology and correlations analyzes (Pearson) with climates variables. They used the weather data to calculate the sums of hours with temperatures below 20 °C, temperatures between 20-25 °C, temperature between 25-30 °C and temperature above 30 °C, considering the period of August 1fst of the previous period to February 28 of the following year. Pearson correlation coefficients were used for path analysis, GF and DGF as basic variables. For CR, GV and GF the highest average occurred in 2009/10 period. The genotypes ‘BRS Kampai’ and ‘BRS Libra’ highest CR. They are considered stable and adapted as the CR genotypes ‘Casc. 967’ and ‘BRS Kampai’. There was negative correlation between CR and GV for Σh <20 ° C, Σh> 30 °C and Σh with URA <50% and positive correlation between these variables and Σh 25-30 °C and Σh with URA> 70%. The evaluation of GV ‘Cons. 681’ and ‘Casc. 1055’ can be considered adapted and stable. The lowest average was presented by the genotype ‘Sta. Áurea’ though the genotype is also stable. In GF evaluation genotypes are considered adapted ‘BRS Bonão’, ‘Casc. 1055’, ‘Cons. 681’ with adaptability to all evaluated period. In path analysis was direct effect Σh 25-30 °C on flower bud density. In evaluating DGV and DGF and the variations are due to genetic effect. The most adapted and stable genotypes for DGV were ‘T. Beauty’, ‘T. Snow’, ‘Casc. 1055’ and ‘Cons. 681’. CR and GV variables are strongly affected by environment. GF is strongly affected by genetic conditions and moderately affected by environment. DGV and DGF are affected basically by genetic conditions.

Espectroscopia no infravermelho e método quimiométrico para a pesquisa de antimicrobianos em leite da microrregião de Pato Branco - PR

Considering the social and economic importance that the milk has, the objective of this study was to evaluate the incidence and quantifying antimicrobial residues in the food. The samples were collected in dairy industry of southwestern Paraná state and thus they were able to cover all ten municipalities in the region of Pato Branco. The work focused on the development of appropriate models for the identification and quantification of analytes: tetracycline, sulfamethazine, sulfadimethoxine, chloramphenicol and ampicillin, all antimicrobials with health interest. For the calibration procedure and validation of the models was used the Infrared Spectroscopy Fourier Transform associated with chemometric method based on Partial Least Squares regression (PLS - Partial Least Squares). To prepare a work solution antimicrobials, the five analytes of interest were used in increasing doses, namely tetracycline from 0 to 0.60 ppm, sulfamethazine 0 to 0.12 ppm, sulfadimethoxine 0 to 2.40 ppm chloramphenicol 0 1.20 ppm and ampicillin 0 to 1.80 ppm to perform the work with the interest in multiresidues analysis. The performance of the models constructed was evaluated through the figures of merit: mean square error of calibration and cross-validation, correlation coefficients and offset performance ratio. For the purposes of applicability in this work, it is considered that the models generated for Tetracycline, Sulfadimethoxine and Chloramphenicol were considered viable, with the greatest predictive power and efficiency, then were employed to evaluate the quality of raw milk from the region of Pato Branco . Among the analyzed samples by NIR, 70% were in conformity with sanitary legislation, and 5% of these samples had concentrations below the Maximum Residue permitted, and is also satisfactory. However 30% of the sample set showed unsatisfactory results when evaluating the contamination with antimicrobials residues, which is non conformity related to the presence of antimicrobial unauthorized use or concentrations above the permitted limits. With the development of this work can be said that laboratory tests in the food area, using infrared spectroscopy with multivariate calibration was also good, fast in analysis, reduced costs and with minimum generation of laboratory waste. Thus, the alternative method proposed meets the quality concerns and desired efficiency by industrial sectors and society in general.

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis and determination of outcome of pulmonary hypertension

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a rare but serious condition that causes progressive right ventricular (RV) failure and death. PH may be idiopathic, associated with underlying connective-tissue disease or hypoxic lung disease, and is also increasingly being observed in the setting of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). The management of PH has been revolutionised by the recent development of new disease-targeted therapies which are beneficial in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), but can be potentially harmful in PH due to left heart disease, so accurate diagnosis and classification of patients is essential. These PAH therapies improve exercise capacity and pulmonary haemodynamics, but their overall effect on the right ventricle remains unclear. Current practice in the UK is to assess treatment response with 6-minute walk test and NYHA functional class, neither of which truly reflects RV function. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging has been established as the gold standard for the evaluation of right ventricular structure and function, but it also allows a non-invasive and accurate study of the left heart. The aims of this thesis were to investigate the use of CMR in the diagnosis of PH, in the assessment of treatment response, and in predicting survival in idiopathic and connective-tissue disease associated PAH. In Chapter 3, a left atrial volume (LAV) threshold of 43 ml/m2 measured with CMR was able to distinguish idiopathic PAH from PH due to HFpEF (sensitivity 97%, specificity 100%). In Chapter 4, disease-targeted PAH therapy resulted in significant improvements in RV and left ventricular ejection fraction (p<0.001 and p=0.0007, respectively), RV stroke volume index (p<0.0001), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume index (p=0.0015). These corresponded to observed improvements in functional class and exercise capacity, although correlation coefficients between Δ 6MWD and Δ RVEF or Δ LVEDV were low. Finally, in Chapter 5, one-year and three-year survival was worse in CTD-PAH (75% and 53%) than in IPAH (83% and 74%), despite similar baseline clinical characteristics, lung function, pulmonary haemodynamics and treatment. Baseline right ventricular stroke volume index was an independent predictor of survival in both conditions. The presence of LV systolic dysfunction was of prognostic significance in CTD-PAH but not IPAH, and a higher LAV was observed in CTD-PAH suggesting a potential contribution from LV diastolic dysfunction in this group.

Analyse des données de la mission Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) sur des bassins versants choisis au Canada pour la caractérisation des eaux souterraines.

Résumé : Les eaux souterraines ont un impact majeur sur la vie terrestre, les besoins domestiques et le climat. Elles sont aussi un maillon essentiel du cycle hydrologique. Au Canada par exemple, plus de 30 % de la population est tributaire des eaux souterraines pour leur alimentation en eau potable. Ces ressources subissent de nombreuses pressions sous l’influence de certains facteurs comme la salinisation, la contamination et l’épuisement. La variabilité du climat et la demande croissante sur ces ressources imposent l'amélioration de nos connaissances sur les eaux souterraines. L’objectif principal du projet de recherche est d’exploiter les données d’anomalies (TWS) de la mission Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) pour localiser, quantifier et analyser les variations des eaux souterraines à travers les bassins versants du Bas-Mackenzie, du Saint-Laurent, du Nord-Québec et du Labrador. Il s’agit aussi d’analyser l’influence des cycles d’accumulation et de fonte de neige sur les variations du niveau des eaux souterraines. Pour estimer les variations des eaux souterraines, la connaissance des autres paramètres du bilan hydrologique est nécessaire. Ces paramètres sont estimés à l’aide des sorties du modèles de surface CLM du Système Global d’Assimilation des Données de la Terre (GLDAS). Les données GRACE qui ont été utilisées sont celles acquises durant la période allant de mars 2002 à août 2012. Les résultats ont été évalués à partir d’enregistrements de niveaux piézométriques provenant de 1841 puits localisés dans les aquifères libres du bassin des réseaux de suivi des eaux souterraines au Canada. Les valeurs de rendements spécifiques des différents types d’aquifères de chaque puits et celles des variations mensuelles du niveau d’eau dans ces puits ont été utilisées pour estimer les variations des anomalies des eaux souterraines in-situ. L’étude de corrélation entre les variations des anomalies des eaux souterraines estimées à partir de la combinaison GRACE-GLDAS et celles issues de données in-situ révèle des concordances significatives avec des valeurs de

DEVELOPMENT AND REPRODUCIBILITY OF THE INSTRUMENTO DE AVALIAÇÃO DA PROMOÇÃO DA SAÚDE NA UNIVERSIDADE - IAPSU (ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR HEALTH PROMOTION AT THE UNIVERSITY)

Objective: To present the Instrumento de Avaliação da Promoção da Saúde na Universidade – IAPSU (Assessment Tool for Health Promotion at the University) and its reproducibility assessment process. Methods: Cross-sectional study conducted between May and July 2014 with 50 students from a university of Fortaleza, Ceará, which developed the IAPSU through the analysis of government documents and a systematic review of the literature on a potentially healthy university. The tool has 41 questions divided into five domains: physical activity, diet, environmental factors, psychosocial factors and alcohol and drug use, integrative and complementary practices. To assess the inter-examiner reproducibility, the students answered the IAPSU twice, applied by two different examiners; to assess the intraexaminer reproducibility, another application of the instrument was performed after seven days. Results: The study comprised 40 Nursing students and 10 Physical Therapy students, with a mean age of 25 ± 5.4 years; 88% were women and white individuals were predominant. In the reproducibility assessment, strong intraclass, intra- and inter-examiner correlation coefficients - above 0.8 - were observed in all the domains. Conclusion: The IAPSU is a reproducible and reliable instrument for assessing health promotion at the university.

'On Affinity Measures for Artificial Immune System Movie Recommenders'

Abstract. We combine Artificial Immune Systems (AIS) technology with Collaborative Filtering (CF) and use it to build a movie recommendation system. We already know that Artificial Immune Systems work well as movie recommenders from previous work by Cayzer and Aickelin ([3], [4], [5]). Here our aim is to investigate the effect of different affinity measure algorithms for the AIS. Two different affinity measures, Kendall's Tau and Weighted Kappa, are used to calculate the correlation coefficients for the movie recommender. We compare the results with those published previously and show that that Weighted Kappa is more suitable than others for movie problems. We also show that AIS are generally robust movie recommenders and that, as long as a suitable affinity measure is chosen, results are good.