PROJECTION OF HEALTH DEMAND IN TERMS OF HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS FOR SELECTED DIAGNOSES IN HEALTH SYSTEMS AGENCY SERVICE AREAS

The National Health Planning and Resources Development Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-641) requires that health systems agencies (HSAs) plan for their health service areas by the use of existing data to the maximum extent practicable. Health planning is based on the identificaton of health needs; however, HSAs are, at present, identifying health needs in their service areas in some approximate terms. This lack of specificity has greatly reduced the effectiveness of health planning. The intent of this study is, therefore, to explore the feasibility of predicting community levels of hospitalized morbidity by diagnosis by the use of existing data so as to allow health planners to plan for the services associated with specific diagnoses.^ The specific objectives of this study are (a) to obtain by means of multiple regression analysis a prediction equation for hospital admission by diagnosis, i.e., select the variables that are related to demand for hospital admissions; (b) to examine how pertinent the variables selected are; and (c) to see if each equation obtained predicts well for health service areas.^ The existing data on hospital admissions by diagnosis are those collected from the National Hospital Discharge Surveys, and are available in a form aggregated to the nine census divisions. When the equations established with such data are applied to local health service areas for prediction, the application is subject to the criticism of the theory of ecological fallacy. Since HSAs have to rely on the availability of existing data, it is imperative to examine whether or not the theory of ecological fallacy holds true in this case.^ The results of the study show that the equations established are highly significant and the independent variables in the equations explain the variation in the demand for hospital admission well. The predictability of these equations is good when they are applied to areas at the same ecological level but become poor, predominantly due to ecological fallacy, when they are applied to health service areas.^ It is concluded that HSAs can not predict hospital admissions by diagnosis without primary data collection as discouraged by Public Law 93-641. ^

ASSOCIATIONS AND INTERRELATIONSHIPS OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, BEHAVIORAL FACTORS AND BIOLOGICAL FACTORS WITH BIRTH WEIGHT

Although the influences of socioeconomic, behavioral and biological factors on birth weight have been extensively studied, most studies have been limited to clinical populations. This study examines such relationships in a national probability sample, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of 1971-1974. The study sample consisted of 2161 white children and 812 black children, aged 1 to 5 years. Analyses were performed on a subsample consisting of 753 white and 138 black children whose mothers were also selected into the survey. Detailed analyses examined interrelationships among socio-economic, behavioral and biological factors by means of multiple regression and partial correlation procedures in the white population. These analyses were not carried out among blacks because of an observed clustering bias introduced in the black subsample that hampered generalization to the US population.^ The results among the whites indicated that the biological factors of maternal height, maternal weight, maternal size (weight/height('2)), maternal age and sex of child were independently related to birth weight and were also interrelated with socioeconomic factors such as family income, education of the mother and education of the head of the household. The joint effect was significantly associated with birth weight.^ Mothers' dietary practices represented the behavioral factors. Selected nutrients from the mothers' 24-hour dietary recall were used to develop indices of dietary quality. Dietary quality was significantly interrelated with socioeconomic status, biological factors and birth weight.^ The findings of this study suggest that smaller, younger mothers of lower socioeconomic status and female children were significantly associated with lower birth weight. The findings also suggest that dietary quality is a mediating factor among socioeconomic status and biological factors in that mothers with more financial and educational resources have better dietary practices. Such mothers may also practice other health behaviors that would prevent having a low birthweight baby. This dissertation contributes primarily to the further conceptualization and empirical testing of the interrelationships among socioeconomic, behavioral and biological factors with respect to birth weight. ^

THE EVALUATION OF PUBLIC HEALTH COMPONENTS OF INTERNATIONAL DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONS: INDOCHINESE REFUGEES IN THAILAND, 1979-1982

Refugee populations suffer poor health status and yet the activities of refugee relief agencies in the public health sector have not been subjected previously to comprehensive evaluation. The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness and cost of the major public health service inputs of the international relief operation for Indochinese refugees in Thailand coordinated by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The investigator collected data from surveillance reports and agency records pertaining to 11 old refugee camps administered by the Government of Thailand Ministry of Interior (MOI) since an earlier refugee influx, and five new Khmer holding centers administered directly by UNHCR, from November, 1979, to March, 1982.^ Generous international funding permitted UNHCR to maintain a higher level of public health service inputs than refugees usually enjoyed in their countries of origin or than Thais around them enjoyed. Annual per capita expenditure for public health inputs averaged approximately US$151. Indochinese refugees in Thailand, for the most part, had access to adequate general food rations, to supplementary feeding programs, and to preventive health measures, and enjoyed high-quality medical services. Old refugee camps administered by MOI consistently received public health inputs of lower quantity and quality compared with new UNHCR-administered holding centers, despite comparable per capita expenditure after both types of camps had stabilized (static phase).^ Mortality and morbidity rates among new Khmer refugees were catastrophic during the emergency and transition phases of camp development. Health status in the refugee population during the static phase, however, was similar to, or better than, health status in the refugees' countries of origin or the Thai communities surrounding the camps. During the static phase, mortality and morbidity generally remained stable at roughly the same low levels in both types of camps.^ Furthermore, the results of multiple regression analyses demonstrated that combined public health inputs accounted for from one to 23 per cent of the variation in refugee mortality and morbidity. The direction of associations between some public health inputs and specific health outcome variables demonstrated no clear pattern. ^

BLOOD PRESSURE CHANGES IN RELATION TO DEMOGRAPHIC, ANTHROPOMETRIC, AND SEXUAL MATURATION VARIABLES IN U.S. HEALTH EXAMINATION SURVEY OF CHILDREN AND YOUTHS (UNITED STATES)

The determinants of change in blood pressure during childhood and adolescence were studied in a cohort of U.S. national probability sample of 2146 children examined on two occasions during the Health Examination Survey. Significant negative correlations between the initial level and the subsequent changes in blood pressure were observed. The multiple regression analyses showed that the major determinants of systolic blood pressure (SBP) change were change in weight, baseline SBP, and baseline upper arm girth. Race, time interval between examinations, baseline age, and height change were also significant determinants in SBP change. For the change in diastolic blood pressure (DBP), baseline DBP, baseline weight, and weight change were the major determinants. Baseline SBP, time interval and race were also significant determinants. Sexual maturation variables were also considered in the subgroup analysis for girls. Weight change was the most important predictor of the change in SBP for the group of girls who were still in the pre-menarchal or pre-breast maturation status at the time of the follow-up examination, and who had started to menstruate or to develop breast maturation at sometime between the two examinations. Baseline triceps skinfold thickness or initial SBP were more important variables than weight change for the group of girls who had already experienced menarche or breast maturation at the time of the initial survey. For the total group, pubic hair maturation was found to be a significant predictor of SBP change at the 5% significance level. The importance of weight change and baseline weight for the changes in blood pressure warrants further study. ^

THE CHLOREX TREATABILITY STUDY: ENVIRONMENTAL FATE IN FACULTATIVE ANAEROBIC AND AEROBIC WASTE STABILIZATION PONDS (BIODEGRADATION, VOLATILIZATION, SORPTION, PRIORITY POLLUTANTS)

The efficacy of waste stabilization lagoons for the treatment of five priority pollutants and two widely used commercial compounds was evaluated in laboratory model ponds. Three ponds were designed to simulate a primary anaerobic lagoon, a secondary facultative lagoon, and a tertiary aerobic lagoon. Biodegradation, volatilization, and sorption losses were quantified for bis(2-chloroethyl) ether, benzene, toluene, naphthalene, phenanthrene, ethylene glycol, and ethylene glycol monoethyl ether. A statistical model using a log normal transformation indicated biodegradation of bis(2-chloroethyl) ether followed first-order kinetics. Additionally, multiple regression analysis indicated biochemical oxygen demand was the water quality variable most highly correlated with bis(2-chloroethyl) ether effluent concentration. ^

Slope estimation in a parametric measurement error model: A simulation study

In regression analysis, covariate measurement error occurs in many applications. The error-prone covariates are often referred to as latent variables. In this proposed study, we extended the study of Chan et al. (2008) on recovering latent slope in a simple regression model to that in a multiple regression model. We presented an approach that applied the Monte Carlo method in the Bayesian framework to the parametric regression model with the measurement error in an explanatory variable. The proposed estimator applied the conditional expectation of latent slope given the observed outcome and surrogate variables in the multiple regression models. A simulation study was presented showing that the method produces estimator that is efficient in the multiple regression model, especially when the measurement error variance of surrogate variable is large.^

Identification of micro-RNAs targeting genes of PI3K/AKT pathway in ovarian cancer

Ovarian cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death for females due to lack of specific early detection method. It is of great interest to find molecular-based biomarkers which are sensitive and specific to ovarian cancer for early diagnosis, prognosis and therapeutics. miRNAs have been proposed to be potential biomarkers that could be used in cancer prevention and therapeutics. The current study analyzed the miRNA and mRNA expression data extracted from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Using simple linear regression and multiple regression models, we found 71 miRNA-mRNA pairs which were negatively associated between 56 miRNAs and 24 genes of PI3K/AKT pathway. Among these miRNA and mRNA target pairs, 9 of them were in agreement with the predictions from the most commonly used target prediction programs including miRGen, miRDB, miRTarbase and miR2Disease. These shared miRNA-mRNA pairs were considered to be the most potential genes that were involved in ovarian cancer. Furthermore, 4 of the 9 target genes encode cell cycle or apoptosis related proteins including Cyclin D1, p21, FOXO1 and Bcl2, suggesting that their regulator miRNAs including miR-16, miR-96 and miR-21 most likely played important roles in promoting tumor growth through dysregulated cell cycle or apoptosis. miR-96 was also found to directly target IRS-1. In addition, the results showed that miR-17 and miR-9 may be involved in ovarian cancer through targeting JAK1. This study might provide evidence for using miRNA or miRNA profile as biomarker.^

The Relationship of Provincial Economic Level and Child Injury Mortality in Thailand: A Cross-Sectional Analysis in a Middle Income Country

The objective of this cross-sectional study was to examine the relationship of provincial economic development indices with incidences of child injury mortality in Thailand from 1999 - 2001. All injury deaths among children age 1-14 years were included. The independent variables included gross provincial product per capita (GPP/c), poverty and inequality indices, material and social deprivation indices, population in rural/ urban areas, and migration. Due to multicollinearity of such variables, the 76 provinces were categorized by GPP/c quartile, and means of overall injury, drowning, and transport-related mortality rates were compared among quartile groups. Spearman’s rho correlation between GPP/c and injury mortality rates was also performed. Finally, factor analysis was employed to create a set of factors to be treated as uncorrelated variables and stepwise multiple regression was carried out for the effects of the factors on injury mortality rates. A significant direct relationship was observed between GPP/c and overall injury mortality among children age 1-4 years, and 10-14 year-olds of both genders. Drowning was the main cause of this relationship among children age 1-4 years, and transport-related injury was the principle cause among children age 10-14 years. Conversely, provinces with lower GPP/c experienced higher injury mortality rates among school-age children 5-9 years old for both genders, mostly due to drowning. Factor analysis, and multiple regression results confirmed the relationships between economic development and injury mortality rates. These findings revealed that economic development had an adverse impact on injury-related mortality among children 1 to 4 and 10 to14 in Thailand.

Correlates of post-diagnosis weight management among female breast cancer survivors: An Internet survey

Objective. Weight gain after cancer treatment is associated with breast cancer recurrence. In order to prolong cancer-free survivorship, interventions to manage post-diagnosis weight are sometimes conducted. However, little is known about what factors are associated with weight management behaviors among cancer survivors. In this study, we examined associations of demographic, clinical, and psychosocial variables with weight management behaviors in female breast cancer survivors. We also examined whether knowledge about post-diagnosis weight gain and its risk is associated with weight management behaviors. ^ Methods. 251 female breast cancer survivors completed an internet survey. They reported current performance of three weight management behaviors (general weight management, physical activity, and healthy diet). We also measured attitude, elf-efficacy, knowledge and social support regarding these behaviors along with demographic and clinical characteristics. ^ Results. Multiple regression models for the weight management behaviors explained 17% of the variance in general weight management, 45% in physical activity and 34% in healthy dieting. The models had 9–14 predictor variables which differed in each model. The variables associated with all three behaviors were social support and self-efficacy. Self-efficacy showed the strongest contribution in all models. The knowledge about weight gain and its risks was not associated with any weight management behaviors. However, women who obtained the knowledge during cancer treatment were more likely to engage in physical activity and healthy dieting. ^ Conclusions. The findings suggest that an intervention designed to increase their self-efficacy to manage weight, to be physically active, to eat healthy will effectively promote survivors to engage in these behaviors. Knowledge may motivate women to manage post-diagnosis weight about risk if information is provided during cancer treatment.^

Relationship of hospital volume to patient mortality, length of stay and total costs in patients receiving brain surgery for cancer: A nationwide analysis

Better morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with increased hospital procedural volume have been demonstrated across a number of different medical procedures. Existence of such a volume-outcome relationship is posited to lead to increased specialization of care, such that patients requiring specific procedures are funneled to physicians and hospitals that achieve a minimum volume of such procedures each year. In this study, the 2009 Nationwide Inpatient Sample is used to examine the relationship between hospital volume and patient outcome among patients undergoing procedures related to malignant brain cancer. Multiple regression models were used to examine the impact of hospital volume on length of inpatient stay and cost of inpatient stay; logistic regression was used to examine the impact of hospital volume on morbidity. Hospital volume was found to be a significant predictor of both length of stay and cost of stay. Hospital volume was associated with a lower length of stay, but was also associated with increased costs. Hospital volume was not found to be a statistically significant predictor of morbidity, though less than three percent of this sample died while in the hospital. Volume is indeed a significant predictor of outcome for procedures related to brain malignancies, though further research regarding the cost of such procedures is recommended.^

Sea ice cover, and bottom water and sediment characteristics at stations in the Amundsen Gulf, Canada

Seasonal dynamics in the activity of Arctic shelf benthos have been the subject of few local studies, and the pronounced among-site variability characterizing their results makes it difficult to upscale and generalize their conclusions. In a regional study encompassing five sites at 100-595 m water depth in the southeastern Beaufort Sea, we found that total pigment concentrations in surficial sediments, used as proxies of general food supply to the benthos, rose significantly after the transition from ice-covered conditions in spring (March-June 2008) to open-water conditions in summer (June-August 2008), whereas sediment Chl a concentrations, typical markers of fresh food input, did not. Macrobenthic biomass (including agglutinated foraminifera >500 µm) varied significantly among sites (1.2-6.4 g C/m**2 in spring, 1.1-12.6 g C/m**2 in summer), whereas a general spring-to-summer increase was not detected. Benthic carbon remineralisation also ranged significantly among sites (11.9-33.2 mg C/m**2/day in spring, 11.6-44.4 mg C/m**2/day in summer) and did in addition exhibit a general significant increase from spring-to-summer. Multiple regression analysis suggests that in both spring and summer, sediment Chl a concentration is the prime determinant of benthic carbon remineralisation, but other factors have a significant secondary influence, such as foraminiferan biomass (negative in both seasons), water depth (in spring) and infaunal biomass (in summer). Our findings indicate the importance of the combined and dynamic effects of food supply and benthic community patterns on the carbon remineralisation of the polar shelf benthos in seasonally ice-covered seas.

Relación precipitación-escorrentía y número de curva bajo diferentes condiciones de uso del suelo: : cuenca modal del sistema serrano de La Ventana, Argentina

La metodología del número de la curva (NC) es la más empleada para transformar la precipitación total en precipitación efectiva. De esta manera se constituye en una herramienta de gran valor para realizar estudios hidrológicos en cuencas hidrográficas, fundamentalmente cuando hay una deficiencia de registros extensos y confiables. Esta metodología requiere del conocimiento del tipo y uso de suelo de la cuenca en estudio y registros pluviográficos. En el presente trabajo se aplicó el procesamiento de imágenes LANDSAT para la zonificación de la vegetación y uso del suelo en la cuenca del Arroyo Pillahuinco Grande (38° LS y 61° 15' LW), ubicada sobre el sistema serrano de La Ventana, en el sudoeste de la provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina. El análisis de su interrelación generó los valores de NC y coeficiente de escorrentía (CE). El procesamiento digital de la base de datos raster georreferenciada se realizó con aplicación de herramientas de sistema de información geográfica (Idrisi Kilimanjaro). El análisis de regresión múltiple efectuado a las variables generó un R2 que explica el 89,77 % de la variabilidad de CE (a < 0,01). Los resultados se exponen a nivel diagnóstico y zonificación del NC, donde la mayor influencia de la escorrentía se relaciona con las variables cobertura vegetal y uso del suelo.

Knowledge of medical abortion among Brazilian medical students

OBJECTIVE: To assess the knowledge of Brazilian medical students regarding medical abortion (MA) and the use of misoprostol for MA, and to investigate factors influencing their knowledge. METHODS: All students from 3 medical schools in São Paulo State were invited to complete a pretested structured questionnaire with precoded response categories. A set of 12 statements on the use and effects of misoprostol for MA assessed their level of knowledge. Of about 1260 students invited to participate in the study, 874 completed the questionnaire, yielding a response rate of 69%. The Ï (2) test was used for the bivariate analysis, which was followed by multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: Although all students in their final year of medical school had heard of misoprostol for termination of pregnancy, and 88% reported having heard how to use it, only 8% showed satisfactory knowledge of its use and effects. Academic level was the only factor associated with the indicators of knowledge investigated. CONCLUSION: The very poor knowledge of misoprostol use for MA demonstrated by the medical students surveyed at 3 medical schools makes the review and updating of the curriculum urgently necessary.

Secchi depth maps for the Baltic Sea, 2003-2012, with links to GeoTIFs

Secchi depth is a measure of water transparency. In the Baltic Sea region, Secchi depth maps are used to assess eutrophication and as input for habitat models. Due to their spatial and temporal coverage, satellite data would be the most suitable data source for such maps. But the Baltic Sea's optical properties are so different from the open ocean that globally calibrated standard models suffer from large errors. Regional predictive models that take the Baltic Sea's special optical properties into account are thus needed. This paper tests how accurately generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) with MODIS/Aqua and auxiliary data as inputs can predict Secchi depth at a regional scale. It uses cross-validation to test the prediction accuracy of hundreds of GAMs and GLMs with up to 5 input variables. A GAM with 3 input variables (chlorophyll a, remote sensing reflectance at 678 nm, and long-term mean salinity) made the most accurate predictions. Tested against field observations not used for model selection and calibration, the best model's mean absolute error (MAE) for daily predictions was 1.07 m (22%), more than 50% lower than for other publicly available Baltic Sea Secchi depth maps. The MAE for predicting monthly averages was 0.86 m (15%). Thus, the proposed model selection process was able to find a regional model with good prediction accuracy. It could be useful to find predictive models for environmental variables other than Secchi depth, using data from other satellite sensors, and for other regions where non-standard remote sensing models are needed for prediction and mapping. Annual and monthly mean Secchi depth maps for 2003-2012 come with this paper as Supplementary materials.

Zoobenthos and oceanographical parameters in the Kemskaya Guba (Bay) - estuary of the Kem' River entering the Onega Bay, White Sea

Data on distribution of zoobenthos in the Kemskaya Guba (or Kemskaya Bay - the estuary of the Kem' River entering the Onega Bay of the White Sea), which is strongly influenced by river runoff, are presented. The number of species at sampling stations varied from 4 to 65. Density of communities and zoobenthos biomass varied from 342±68 to 4293±96 #/m**2 and from 0.418±0.081 to 1975.22±494.36 g/m**2, respectively. Shannon index values varied between 1.19 to 4.7 bit/ind. At the upper part of the estuary, detritivores dominated, while in the central part and at outlets sestonophages prevailed. Changes in quantitative parameters of the zoobenthos along gradient of water salinity were traced, and relations of these parameters with seven other environmental factors were revealed. It was found that species composition, biodiversity, and trophic structure of the zoobenthos significantly correlated with some of parameters mentioned above. Multiple regression analysis was used to assess combined effect of factors, and it revealed which of them played a determining role in Kemskaya Guba: for species composition - depth, water color, and total concentration of suspended matter; for number of species - contents of <0.01 mm grain size (pelite) fraction and organic carbon in bottom sediments. Biomass depended on water salinity, water chromaticity, and organic carbon contents in bottom sediments and suspended matter. Values of the Shannon index of diversity are determined by water color, and contents of organic carbon and pelite fraction in bottom sediments. Calculations of ecological stress values revealed two zones with unstable state of the zoobenthos.