Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Body size and flight distance in stingless bees (Hymenoptera: Meliponini): inference of flight range and possible ecological implications

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Bayesian binary regression model: an application to in-hospital death after AMI prediction

Um modelo bayesiano de regressão binária é desenvolvido para predizer óbito hospitalar em pacientes acometidos por infarto agudo do miocárdio. Métodos de Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC) são usados para fazer inferência e validação. Uma estratégia para construção de modelos, baseada no uso do fator de Bayes, é proposta e aspectos de validação são extensivamente discutidos neste artigo, incluindo a distribuição a posteriori para o índice de concordância e análise de resíduos. A determinação de fatores de risco, baseados em variáveis disponíveis na chegada do paciente ao hospital, é muito importante para a tomada de decisão sobre o curso do tratamento. O modelo identificado se revela fortemente confiável e acurado, com uma taxa de classificação correta de 88% e um índice de concordância de 83%.

Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model

O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.

Study of stayability in Nellore cows using a threshold model

The objectives of the current study were to assess the feasibility of using stayability traits to improve fertility of Nellore cows and to examine the genetic relationship among the stayabilities at different ages. Stayability was defined as whether a cow calved every year up to the age of 5 (Stay5), 6 (Stay6), or 7 (Stay7) yr of age or more, given that she was provided the opportunity to breed. Data were analyzed based on a maximum a posteriori probit threshold model to predict breeding values on the liability scale, whereas the Gibbs sampler was used to estimate variance components. The EBV were obtained using all animals included in the pedigree or bulls with at least 10 daughters with stayability observations, and average genetic trends were obtained in the liability and transformed to the probability scale. Additional analyses were performed to study the genetic relationship among stayability traits, which were compared by contrasting results in terms of EBV and the average genetic superiority as a function of the selected proportion of sires. Heritability estimates and SD were 0.25 +/- 0.02, 0.22 +/- 0.03, and 0.28 +/- 0.03 for Stay5, Stay6, and Stay7, respectively. Average genetic trends, by year, were 0.51 +/- 0.34, and 0.38% for Stay5, Stay6, and Stay7, respectively. Estimates of EBV SD, in the probability scale, for all animals included in the pedigree and for bulls with at least 10 daughters with stayability observations were 7.98 and 12.95, 6.93 and 11.38, and 8.24 and 14.30% for Stay5, Stay6, and Stay7, respectively. A reduction in the average genetic superiorities in Stay7 would be expected if the selection were based on Stay5 or Stay6. Nonetheless, the reduction in EPD, depending on selection intensity, is on average 0.74 and 1.55%, respectively. Regressions of the sires' EBV for Stay5 and Stay6 on the sires' EBV for Stay7 confirmed these results. The heritability and genetic trend estimates for all stayability traits indicate that it is possible to improve fertility with selection based on a threshold analysis of stayability. The SD of EBV for stayability traits show that there is adequate genetic variability among animals to justify inclusion of stayability as a selection criterion. The potential linear relationship among stayability traits indicates that selection for improved female traits would be more effective by having predictions on the Stay5 trait.

Mapping lightning processes using fuzzy inference system

This paper describes a novel approach for mapping lightning processes using fuzzy logic. The core regarding lightning process is to identify and to model those uncertain information on mathematical principles. In fact, the lightning process involves several nonlinear features that our current mathematical tools would not be able to model. The estimation process has been carried out using a fuzzy system based on Sugeno's architecture. Simulation results confirm that proposed approach can be efficiently used in these types of problem.

Bayesian approximations in randomized response model

Practical Bayesian inference depends upon detailed examination of posterior distribution. When the prior and likelihood are conjugate, this is easily carried out; however, in general, one must resort to numerical approximation. In this paper, our aim is to solve, using MAPLE, the Bayesian paradigm, for a very special data collecting procedure, known as the randomized-response technique. This allows researchers to obtain sensitive information while guaranteeing privacy to respondents. This approach intends to reduce false responses on sensitive questions. Exact methods and approximations will be compared from the accuracy point of view as well as for the computational effort.

The Geometric Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with cure rate

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Optimum design of experiments for statistical inference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Scalar resonances in leptophilic multi-Higgs-boson models

We show that the Higgs resonance can be amplified in a 3-3-1 model with a multi-Higgs-boson leptophilic scalar sector. This would allow the observation of the Higgs particle in muon colliders even for Higgs boson masses considerably higher than the ones expected to be seen in the electroweak standard model framework. ©1999 The American Physical Society.

Dielectric and viscoelastic properties of cross-linked polyethylene aged under multi stressing conditions

Different measurements were performed in cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) employed as insulating material in coaxial cables that were field-aged and laboratory-aged under multi-stressing conditions at room temperature. Samples were peeled from the XLPE cable insulation in three different positions: just below the external semiconductor layer (outer layer), in the middle (middle layer) and just above the internal semiconductor layer of the cable (inner layer). The imaginary part of the electric susceptibility showed three peaks that obey the Dissado-Hill model. For laboratory-aged XLPE samples peeled from the inner and from the middle positions the peak at very low frequency region increased while in samples from the outer position a quasi-DC conduction process was observed. In medium frequency range a broadening of the peak was observed for all samples. Viscoelastic properties determined through dynamic mechanical analysis suggested that the aging generates processes that promoted changes of the crystallinity and the cross-linking degrees of the polymer. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) measurements revealed an increase of oxidation products (esters), evidence of polar residues of the bow-tie tree and the presence of cross-linking by-products (acetophenone). Optical and scanning electronic microscope (SEM) measurements in aged samples revealed the existence of voids and bow-tie trees that were formed during aging in the middle region of the cable.

A branch-and-bound algorithm for the multi-stage transmission expansion planning

This work presents a branch-and-bound algorithm to solve the multi-stage transmission expansion planning problem. The well known transportation model is employed, nevertheless the algorithm can be extended to hybrid models or to more complex ones such as the DC model. Tests with a realistic power system were carried out in order to show the performance of the algorithm for the expansion plan executed for different time frames. © 2005 IEEE.

Search for neutral higgs bosons in Multi-b-Jet events in pp̄ collisions at s=1.96TeV

Data recorded by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider are analyzed to search for neutral Higgs bosons produced in association with b quarks. This production mode can be enhanced in the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM). The search is performed in the three b quark channel using multijet triggered events corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1fb-1. No statistically significant excess of events with respect to the predicted background is observed and limits are set in the MSSM parameter space. © 2008 The American Physical Society.

Multi-areas optimal reactive power flow

This paper describes a method for the decentralized solution of the optimal reactive power flow (ORPF) problem in interconnected power systems. The ORPF model is solved in a decentralized framework, consisting of regions, where the transmission system operator in each area operates its system independently of the other areas, obtaining an optimal coordinated but decentralized solution. The proposed scheme is based on an augmented Lagrangian approach using the auxiliary problem principle (APP). An implementation of an interior point method is described to solve the decoupled problem in each area. The described method is successfully implemented and tested using the IEEE two area RTS 96 test system. Numerical results comparing the solutions obtained by the traditional and the proposed decentralized methods are presented for validation. ©2008 IEEE.

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co)variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model. © South African Society for Animal Science.