Emergency obstetrical complications in a rural African setting (Kayes, Mali) : the link between spatial access and maternal mortality

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

"Empirical Analysis of Jumps Contribution to Volatility Forecasting Using High Frequency Data".

Rapport de recherche présenté à la Faculté des arts et des sciences en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maîtrise en sciences économiques.

Neighbourhood Income and Neonatal, Postneonatal and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) Mortality in Canada, 1991-2005

CONTEXTE : La mortalité infantile a diminué au Canada depuis les années 1990 et 2000 mais nous ignorons si toutes les classes socioéconomiques ont bénéficié également de ce progrès. OBJECTIFS : La présente étude portait sur les différences entre les taux de mortalité néonatale et postnéonatale et de mort subite du nourrisson entre les différents quintiles de revenu des quartiers au Canada de 1991 à 2005. MÉTHODES : Le fichier couplé des naissances vivantes et des décès infantiles au Canada a été utilisé à l’exclusion des naissances survenues en Ontario, au Yukon, dans les Territoires du Nord-ouest et au Nunavut. Les taux de mortalité néonatale et postnéonatale et de mort subite du nourrisson ont été calculé par quintile de revenu des quartiers et par période (1991-1995, 1996-2000, 2001-2005). Les rapports de risque (RR) ont été calculés par quintile de revenu et période avec ajustement pour la province de résidence, l’âge de la mère, la parité, le sexe du nourrisson et les naissances multiples. RÉSULTATS : En zone urbaine, pour toute la période étudiée (1991- 2005), le quintile de revenu le plus pauvre avait un risque plus élevé de mortalité néonatale (RR ajusté 1,24; IC 95% 1,15-1,34), de mortalité postnéonatale (RR ajusté 1,58; IC 95% 1,41-1,76) et de mort subite du nourrisson (RR ajusté 1,83; IC 95% 1,49-2,26) par rapport au quintile le plus riche. Les taux de mortalité post néonatale et de mort subite du nourrisson ont décliné respectivement de 37 % et de 57 % de 1991- 1995 à 2001-2005 alors que le taux de mortalité néonatale n’a pas changé de façon significative. Cette diminution de la mortalité postnéonatale et de la mort subite du nourrisson a été observée dans tous les quintiles de revenu. CONCLUSION : Malgré une diminution de la mortalité postnéonatale et du syndrome de mort subite du nourrisson dans tous les quintiles de revenu, les inégalités subsistent au Canada. Ce résultat démontre le besoin de stratégies efficaces de promotion de la santé visant spécifiquement les populations vulnérables. MOTS CLÉS : mort subite du nourrisson; mortalité infantile; statut socioéconomique

Influence Of Forecasting, Planning And Controlling On The Performance Of Small And Medium Enterprises

Production Planning and Control (PPC) systems have grown and changed because of the developments in planning tools and models as well as the use of computers and information systems in this area. Though so much is available in research journals, practice of PPC is lagging behind and does not use much from published research. The practices of PPC in SMEs lag behind because of many reasons, which need to be explored This research work deals with the effect of identified variables such as forecasting, planning and control methods adopted, demographics of the key person, standardization practices followed, effect of training, learning and IT usage on firm performance. A model and framework has been developed based on literature. Empirical testing of the model has been done after collecting data using a questionnaire schedule administered among the selected respondents from Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in India. Final data included 382 responses. Hypotheses linking SME performance with the use of forecasting, planning and controlling were formed and tested. Exploratory factor analysis was used for data reduction and for identifying the factor structure. High and low performing firms were classified using a Logistic Regression model. A confirmatory factor analysis was used to study the structural relationship between firm performance and dependent variables.

Assessment of Energy Conservation in Indian Cement Industry and Forecasting of Co2 Emissions

Cement industry ranks 2nd in energy consumption among the industries in India. It is one of the major emitter of CO2, due to combustion of fossil fuel and calcination process. As the huge amount of CO2 emissions cause severe environment problems, the efficient and effective utilization of energy is a major concern in Indian cement industry. The main objective of the research work is to assess the energy cosumption and energy conservation of the Indian cement industry and to predict future trends in cement production and reduction of CO2 emissions. In order to achieve this objective, a detailed energy and exergy analysis of a typical cement plant in Kerala was carried out. The data on fuel usage, electricity consumption, amount of clinker and cement production were also collected from a few selected cement industries in India for the period 2001 - 2010 and the CO2 emissions were estimated. A complete decomposition method was used for the analysis of change in CO2 emissions during the period 2001 - 2010 by categorising the cement industries according to the specific thermal energy consumption. A basic forecasting model for the cement production trend was developed by using the system dynamic approach and the model was validated with the data collected from the selected cement industries. The cement production and CO2 emissions from the industries were also predicted with the base year as 2010. The sensitivity analysis of the forecasting model was conducted and found satisfactory. The model was then modified for the total cement production in India to predict the cement production and CO2 emissions for the next 21 years under three different scenarios. The parmeters that influence CO2 emissions like population and GDP growth rate, demand of cement and its production, clinker consumption and energy utilization are incorporated in these scenarios. The existing growth rate of the population and cement production in the year 2010 were used in the baseline scenario. In the scenario-1 (S1) the growth rate of population was assumed to be gradually decreasing and finally reach zero by the year 2030, while in scenario-2 (S2) a faster decline in the growth rate was assumed such that zero growth rate is achieved in the year 2020. The mitigation strategiesfor the reduction of CO2 emissions from the cement production were identified and analyzed in the energy management scenarioThe energy and exergy analysis of the raw mill of the cement plant revealed that the exergy utilization was worse than energy utilization. The energy analysis of the kiln system showed that around 38% of heat energy is wasted through exhaust gases of the preheater and cooler of the kiln sysetm. This could be recovered by the waste heat recovery system. A secondary insulation shell was also recommended for the kiln in the plant in order to prevent heat loss and enhance the efficiency of the plant. The decomposition analysis of the change in CO2 emissions during 2001- 2010 showed that the activity effect was the main factor for CO2 emissions for the cement industries since it is directly dependent on economic growth of the country. The forecasting model showed that 15.22% and 29.44% of CO2 emissions reduction can be achieved by the year 2030 in scenario- (S1) and scenario-2 (S2) respectively. In analysing the energy management scenario, it was assumed that 25% of electrical energy supply to the cement plants is replaced by renewable energy. The analysis revealed that the recovery of waste heat and the use of renewable energy could lead to decline in CO2 emissions 7.1% for baseline scenario, 10.9 % in scenario-1 (S1) and 11.16% in scenario-2 (S2) in 2030. The combined scenario considering population stabilization by the year 2020, 25% of contribution from renewable energy sources of the cement industry and 38% thermal energy from the waste heat streams shows that CO2 emissions from Indian cement industry could be reduced by nearly 37% in the year 2030. This would reduce a substantial level of greenhouse gas load to the environment. The cement industry will remain one of the critical sectors for India to meet its CO2 emissions reduction target. India’s cement production will continue to grow in the near future due to its GDP growth. The control of population, improvement in plant efficiency and use of renewable energy are the important options for the mitigation of CO2 emissions from Indian cement industries

Forecasting Global Temperature Variations by Neural Networks

Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984 are forecast usingsregularization networks, multilayer perceptrons and linearsautoregression. The regularization network, optimized by stochasticsgradient descent associated with colored noise, gives the bestsforecasts. For all the models, prediction errors noticeably increasesafter 1965. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that thesclimate dynamics is characterized by low-dimensional chaos and thatsthe it may have changed at some point after 1965, which is alsosconsistent with the recent idea of climate change.s

Maternal Mortality in Colombia: Some Thoughs on the Situation and Public Policy During Last Decade

In this article we make a critical analysis about the situation of maternal mortality in Colombia, considering some of the most current rates of this problem and the public policy rules adopted in the last years to decrease its prevalence. We think that the rate of maternal mortality in Colombia is too hight because the State does not guarantee the right health care to Colombian women. In this way, the structure and resources distribution established by the policies on sexual and reproductive health have not reflected the population necessities, specially in the case of young mothers left aside by the social security system.

The effect of the occupational mortality over the economy. Magdalena’s Fevers and tobacco farming in Colombia in XIX century

It is aimed at reviewing the effect reflected in the quality and quantity of tobacco exportation with the appearance of Magdalena Fevers in the Ambalema zone (Colombia), between 1856 and 1870. The research explores the effect of labor over health and the effect of health over labor in this stage of the Colombian export development. By formulating an econometric model it is possible to establish whether the epidemic outbreaks of fevers were a relevant factor in explaining the behavior of tobacco exports from Ambalema to the outside. The analysis of the empirical data shows that it is possible that a fall on the exports in about 72,000 tobacco sacks per year caused by the fevers in the studied region, as well as a negative effect of the disease on the tobacco prices.

Salud y crecimiento económico: un modelo de generaciones traslapadas, expectativa de vida endógena y capital humano

Este trabajo desarrolla un modelo de generaciones traslapadas con expectativa de vida endógena y capital humano. Recoge parte de la evidencia empírica acerca de la transición demográfica explicada por Notestein en 1945, donde variaciones en la longevidad de los individuos afectan positivamente el crecimiento económico de un país. El modelo establece que la falta de incentivos para invertir en salud estanca a una economía en una trampa de pobreza y muestra que incrementos en la productividad en el sector de producción de capital humano, al igual que cambios tecnológicos sesgados al uso intensivo del mismo, incrementan el producto de estado estacionario y pueden sacar a una economía de una trampa de pobreza.

Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

Este documento estima modelos lineales y no-lineales de corrección de errores para los precios spot de cuatro tipos de café. En concordancia con las leyes económicas, se encuentra evidencia que cuando los precios están por encima de su nivel de equilibrio, retornan a éste mas lentamente que cuando están por debajo. Esto puede reflejar el hecho que, en el corto plazo, para los países productores de café es mas fácil restringir la oferta para incrementar precios, que incrementarla para reducirlos. Además, se encuentra evidencia que el ajuste es más rápido cuando las desviaciones del equilibrio son mayores. Los pronósticos que se obtienen a partir de los modelos de corrección de errores no lineales y asimétricos considerados en el trabajo, ofrecen una leve mejoría cuando se comparan con los pronósticos que resultan de un modelo de paseo aleatorio.

Nova Talenta: 2014-2015

Contenido Introducción 1. Inteligencia emocional, liderazgo transformacional y género: factores que influencian el desempeño organizacional / Ana María Galindo Londoño, Sara Urrego Mayorga; Director: Juan Carlos Espinosa Méndez. 2. El rol de la mujer en el liderazgo / Andrea Patricia Cuestas Díaz; Directora: Francoise Venezia Contreras Torres. 3. Liderazgo transformacional, clima organizacional, satisfacción laboral y desempeño. Una revisión de la literatura / Juliana Restrepo Orozco, Ángela Marcela Ochoa Rodríguez; Directora: Françoise Venezia Contreras Torres. 4. “E-Leadership” una perspectiva al mundo de las compañías globalizadas / Ángela Beatriz Morales Morales, Mónica Natalia Aguilera Velandia; Director: Juan Carlos Espinosa. 5. Liderazgo y cultura. Una revisión / Daniel Alejandro Romero Galindo; Directora: Francoise Venezia Contreras Torres. 6. La investigación sobre la naturaleza del trabajo directivo: una revisión de la literatura / Julián Felipe Rodríguez Rivera, María Isabel Álvarez Rodríguez; Director: Juan Javier Saavedra Mayorga. 7. La mujer en la alta dirección en el contexto colombiano / Ana María Moreno, Juliana Moreno Jaramillo ; Directora: Françoise Venezia Contreras Torres. 8. Influencia de la personalidad en el discurso y liderazgo de George W. Bush después del 11 de septiembre de 2011 / Karen Eliana Mesa Torres; Director: Juan Carlos Espinosa. 9. La investigación sobre el campo del followership: una revisión de la literatura / Christian D. Báez Millán, Leidy J. Pinzón Porras; Director: Juan Javier Saavedra Mayorga. 10. El liderazgo desde la perspectiva del poder y la influencia. Una revisión de la literatura / Lina María García, Juan Sebastián Naranjo; Director: Juan Javier Saavedra Mayorga. 11. El trabajo directivo para líderes y gerentes: una visión integradora de los roles organizacionales / Lina Marcela Escobar Campos, Daniel Mora Barrero; Director: Rafael Piñeros. 12. Participación emocional en la toma de decisiones / Lina Rocío Poveda C., Gloria Johanna Rueda L.; Directora: Francoise Contreras T. 13. Estrés y su relación con el liderazgo / María Camila García Sierra, Diana Paola Rocha Cárdenas; Director: Juan Carlos Espinosa. 14. “Burnout y engagement” / María Paola Jaramillo Barrios, Natalia Rojas Mancipe; Director: Rafael Piñeros.

Estimating and Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates:US and Colombia Analysis

In this paper we use the most representative models that exist in the literature on term structure of interest rates. In particular, we explore affine one factor models and polynomial-type approximations such as Nelson and Siegel. Our empirical application considers monthly data of USA and Colombia for estimation and forecasting. We find that affine models do not provide adequate performance either in-sample or out-of-sample. On the contrary, parsimonious models such as Nelson and Siegel have adequate results in-sample, however out-of-sample they are not able to systematically improve upon random walk base forecast.

Mortality salience, political orientation and minimization of terrorists??? secondary emotions

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Cancer mortality inequalities in urban areas: a Bayesian small area analysis in Spanish cities

Intra-urban inequalities in mortality have been infrequently analysed in European contexts. The aim of the present study was to analyse patterns of cancer mortality and their relationship with socioeconomic deprivation in small areas in 11 Spanish cities

Relation between temperature and mortality in thirteen Spanish cities

In this study we examined the shape of the association between temperature and mortality in 13 Spanish cities representing a wide range of climatic and socio demographic conditions. The temperature value linked with minimum mortality (MMT) and the slopes before and after the turning point (MMT) were calculated. Most cities showed a V-shaped temperature-mortality relationship. MMTs were generally higher in cities with warmer climates. Cold and heat effects also depended on climate: effects were greater in hotter cities but lesser in cities with higher variability. The effect of heat was greater than the effect of cold. The effect of cold and MMT was, in general, greater for cardio-respiratory mortality than for total mortality, while the effect of heat was, in general, greater among the elderly