Advances in understanding energy consumption behavior and the governance of its change - Outline of an integrated framework

Transforming today’s energy systems in industrialized countries requires a substantial reduction of the total energy consumption at the individual level. Selected instruments have been found to be effective in changing people’s behavior in single domains. However, the so far weak success story on reducing overall energy consumption indicates that our understanding of the determining factors of individual energy consumption as well as of its change is far from being conclusive. Among others, the scientific state of the art is dominated by analyzing single domains of consumption and by neglecting embodied energy. It also displays strong disciplinary splits and the literature often fails to distinguish between explaining behavior and explaining change of behavior. Moreover, there are knowledge gaps regarding the legitimacy and effectiveness of the governance of individual consumption behavior and its change. Against this backdrop, the aim of this paper is to establish an integrated interdisciplinary framework that offers a systematic basis for linking the different aspects in research on energy related consumption behavior, thus paving the way for establishing a better evidence base to inform societal actions. The framework connects the three relevant analytical aspects of the topic in question: (1) It systematically and conceptually frames the objects, i.e. the energy consumption behavior and its change (explananda); (2) it structures the factors that potentially explain the energy consumption behavior and its change (explanantia); (3) it provides a differentiated understanding of change inducing interventions in terms of governance. Based on the existing states of the art approaches from different disciplines within the social sciences the proposed framework is supposed to guide interdisciplinary empirical research.

Protection of horses against Culicoides biting midges in different housing systems in Switzerland

Species belonging to the Culicoides complexes (Diptera, Ceratopogonidae), obsoletus and pulicaris, in Switzerland, are potential vectors of both bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV). The epidemic of BTV in 2006 and 2007 in Europe has highlighted the risk of introduction and spread of vector-borne diseases in previously non-endemic areas. As a measure of prevention, as part of an integrated control programme in the event of an outbreak of African horse sickness (AHS), it is of utmost importance to prevent, or substantially reduce, contact between horses and Culicoides. The aim of the present study was to compare the effect of three protection systems, net, fan, repellent, or combinations thereof, with regard to their potential to reduce contact between horses and Culicoides. Three different equine housing systems, including individual boxes (BX), group housing systems (GR), and individual boxes with permanently accessible paddock (BP) were used. The efficacy of the protection systems were evaluated by comparing the total number counts of collected female Culicoides, of non-blood-fed and blood-fed Culicoides, respectively, with UV black light traps. The study was conducted over 3 summer months during 2012 and 2013 each and focused on the efficacy and practicality of the protection systems. The repellent was tested in 2012 only and not further investigated in 2013, as it showed no significant effect in reducing Culicoides collected in the light traps. Net protection system provided the best overall protection for the total number of female Culicoides, non-blood-fed and blood-fed Culicoides in all tested housing systems. The net, with a pore size of 0.1825 mm(2), reduced the total number of Culicoides collected in the housing systems BP, GR and BX by 98%, 85% and 67%, respectively. However, in the GR housing system, no significant difference between the effectiveness of the fan and the net were determined for any of the three Culicoides categories. The results of the present study demonstrated that horse owners can substantially reduce their horses' exposure to Culicoides, by using net protection in the housing systems BX, BP and GR. In GR housing systems, protection against Culicoides using a fan is also recommended.

Binary recombinase systems for high-resolution conditional mutagenesis.

Conditional mutagenesis using Cre recombinase expressed from tissue specific promoters facilitates analyses of gene function and cell lineage tracing. Here, we describe two novel dual-promoter-driven conditional mutagenesis systems designed for greater accuracy and optimal efficiency of recombination. Co-Driver employs a recombinase cascade of Dre and Dre-respondent Cre, which processes loxP-flanked alleles only when both recombinases are expressed in a predetermined temporal sequence. This unique property makes Co-Driver ideal for sequential lineage tracing studies aimed at unraveling the relationships between cellular precursors and mature cell types. Co-InCre was designed for highly efficient intersectional conditional transgenesis. It relies on highly active trans-splicing inteins and promoters with simultaneous transcriptional activity to reconstitute Cre recombinase from two inactive precursor fragments. By generating native Cre, Co-InCre attains recombination rates that exceed all other binary SSR systems evaluated in this study. Both Co-Driver and Co-InCre significantly extend the utility of existing Cre-responsive alleles.

The utility of rapid participatory appraisal for community assessment, diagnosis, and policy development

The selection of a model to guide the understanding and resolution of community problems is an important issue relating to the foundation of public health practice: assessment, policy development, and assurance. Many assessment models produce a diagnosis of community weaknesses, but fail to promote planning and interventions. Rapid Participatory Appraisal (RPA) is a participatory action research model which regards assessment as the first step in the problem solving process, and claims to achieve assessment and policy development within limited resources of time and money. Literature documenting the fulfillment of these claims, and thereby supporting the utility of the model, is relatively sparse and difficult to obtain. Very few articles discuss the changes resulting from RPA assessments in urban areas, and those that do describe studies conducted outside the U.S.A. ^ This study examines the utility of the RPA model and its underlying theories: systems theory, grounded theory, and principles of participatory change, as illustrated by the case study of a community assessment conducted for the Texas Diabetes Institute (TDI), San Antonio, Texas, and subsequent outcomes. Diabetes has a high prevalence and is a major issue in San Antonio. Faculty and students conducted the assessment by informal collaboration between two nursing and public health assessment courses, providing practical student experiences. The study area was large, and the flexibility of the model tested by its use in contiguous sub-regions, reanalyzing aggregated results for the study area. Official TDI reports, and a mail survey of agency employees, described policy development resulting from community diagnoses revealed by the assessment. ^ The RPA model met the criteria for utility from the perspectives of merit, worth, efficiency, and effectiveness. The RPA model best met the agencies' criteria (merit), met the data needs of TDI in this particular situation (worth), provided valid results within budget, time, and personnel constraints (efficiency), and stimulated policy development by TDI (effectiveness). ^ The RPA model appears to have utility for community assessment, diagnosis, and policy development in circumstances similar to the TDI diabetes study. ^

High-resolution microarray analysis of chromosome 20q in human colon cancer metastasis model systems

Amplification of human chromosome 20q DNA is the most frequently occurring chromosomal abnormality detected in sporadic colorectal carcinomas and shows significant correlation with liver metastases. Through comprehensive high-resolution microarray comparative genomic hybridization and microarray gene expression profiling, we have characterized chromosome 20q amplicon genes associated with human colorectal cancer metastasis in two in vitro metastasis model systems. The results revealed increasing complexity of the 20q genomic profile from the primary tumor-derived cell lines to the lymph node and liver metastasis derived cell lines. Expression analysis of chromosome 20q revealed a subset of over expressed genes residing within the regions of genomic copy number gain in all the tumor cell lines, suggesting these are Chromosome 20q copy number responsive genes. Bases on their preferential expression levels in the model system cell lines and known biological function, four of the over expressed genes mapping to the common intervals of genomic copy gain were considered the most promising candidate colorectal metastasis-associated genes. Validation of genomic copy number and expression array data was carried out on these genes, with one gene, DNMT3B, standing out as expressed at a relatively higher levels in the metastasis-derived cell lines compared with their primary-derived counterparts in both the models systems analyzed. The data provide evidence for the role of chromosome 20q genes with low copy gain and elevated expression in the clonal evolution of metastatic cells and suggests that such genes may serve as early biomarkers of metastatic potential. The data also support the utility of the combined microarray comparative genomic hybridization and expression array analysis for identifying copy number responsive genes in areas of low DNA copy gain in cancer cells. ^

Using small area estimation and geographic information systems technology to target health services for the uninsured

The three articles that comprise this dissertation describe how small area estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) technologies can be integrated to provide useful information about the number of uninsured and where they are located. Comprehensive data about the numbers and characteristics of the uninsured are typically only available from surveys. Utilization and administrative data are poor proxies from which to develop this information. Those who cannot access services are unlikely to be fully captured, either by health care provider utilization data or by state and local administrative data. In the absence of direct measures, a well-developed estimation of the local uninsured count or rate can prove valuable when assessing the unmet health service needs of this population. However, the fact that these are “estimates” increases the chances that results will be rejected or, at best, treated with suspicion. The visual impact and spatial analysis capabilities afforded by geographic information systems (GIS) technology can strengthen the likelihood of acceptance of area estimates by those most likely to benefit from the information, including health planners and policy makers. ^ The first article describes how uninsured estimates are currently being performed in the Houston metropolitan region. It details the synthetic model used to calculate numbers and percentages of uninsured, and how the resulting estimates are integrated into a GIS. The second article compares the estimation method of the first article with one currently used by the Texas State Data Center to estimate numbers of uninsured for all Texas counties. Estimates are developed for census tracts in Harris County, using both models with the same data sets. The results are statistically compared. The third article describes a new, revised synthetic method that is being tested to provide uninsured estimates at sub-county levels for eight counties in the Houston metropolitan area. It is being designed to replicate the same categorical results provided by a current U.S. Census Bureau estimation method. The estimates calculated by this revised model are compared to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates, using the same areas and population categories. ^

Use of short term test systems for the prediction of the hazard represented by potential chemical carcinogens

It has been hypothesized that results from the short term bioassays will ultimately provide information that will be useful for human health hazard assessment. Although toxicologic test systems have become increasingly refined, to date, no investigator has been able to provide qualitative or quantitative methods which would support the use of short term tests in this capacity.^ Historically, the validity of the short term tests have been assessed using the framework of the epidemiologic/medical screens. In this context, the results of the carcinogen (long term) bioassay is generally used as the standard. However, this approach is widely recognized as being biased and, because it employs qualitative data, cannot be used in the setting of priorities. In contrast, the goal of this research was to address the problem of evaluating the utility of the short term tests for hazard assessment using an alternative method of investigation.^ Chemical carcinogens were selected from the list of carcinogens published by the International Agency for Research on Carcinogens (IARC). Tumorigenicity and mutagenicity data on fifty-two chemicals were obtained from the Registry of Toxic Effects of Chemical Substances (RTECS) and were analyzed using a relative potency approach. The relative potency framework allows for the standardization of data "relative" to a reference compound. To avoid any bias associated with the choice of the reference compound, fourteen different compounds were used.^ The data were evaluated in a format which allowed for a comparison of the ranking of the mutagenic relative potencies of the compounds (as estimated using short term data) vs. the ranking of the tumorigenic relative potencies (as estimated from the chronic bioassays). The results were statistically significant (p $<$.05) for data standardized to thirteen of the fourteen reference compounds. Although this was a preliminary investigation, it offers evidence that the short term test systems may be of utility in ranking the hazards represented by chemicals which may be human carcinogens. ^

Distribution of quality adjusted life expectancy: A systems approach

Statistical methods are developed which assess survival data for two attributes; (1) prolongation of life, (2) quality of life. Health state transition probabilities correspond to prolongation of life and are modeled as a discrete-time semi-Markov process. Imbedded within the sojourn time of a particular health state are the quality of life transitions. They reflect events which differentiate perceptions of pain and suffering over a fixed time period. Quality of life transition probabilities are derived from the assumptions of a simple Markov process. These probabilities depend on the health state currently occupied and the next health state to which a transition is made. Utilizing the two forms of attributes the model has the capability to estimate the distribution of expected quality adjusted life years (in addition to the distribution of expected survival times). The expected quality of life can also be estimated within the health state sojourn time making more flexible the assessment of utility preferences. The methods are demonstrated on a subset of follow-up data from the Beta Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This model contains the structure necessary to make inferences when assessing a general survival problem with a two dimensional outcome. ^

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM MUTAGENICITY AND CYTOTOXICITY BIOASSAYS FOR INTEGRATED HEALTH ASSESSMENT STUDIES OF COAL FLY ASH EMISSIONS

Two respirable coal fly ash samples ((LESSTHEQ) 3(mu)m), one from a pressurized fluidized-bed combustion miniplant and one from a conventional combustion power plant, were investigated for physical properties, chemical composition and biological activity. Electron microscopy illustrated irregularity in fluidized-bed combustion fly ash and sphericity in conventional combustion fly ash. Elemental analysis of these samples showed differences in trace elements. Both fly ash samples were toxic in rabbit alveolar macrophage and Chinese hamster ovary cell systems in vitro. The macrophages were more sensitive to toxicity of fly ash than the ovary cells. For measuring the cytotoxicity of fly ash, the most sensitive parameters were adenosine triphosphate in the alveolar macrophage system and viability index in the hamster ovary system. Intact fluidized-bed combustion fly-ash particles showed mutagenicity only in strains TA98 and TA1538 without metabolic activation in the Ames Salmonella assay. No mutagenicity was detected in bioassay of conventional combustion fly ash particles. Solvent extraction yielded more mass from fluidized-bed combustion fly ash than from conventional combustion fly ash. The extracts of fluidized-bed combustion fly ash showed higher mutagenic activity than conventional combustion fly ash. These samples contained direct-acting, frameshift mutagens.^ Fly ash samples collected from the same fluidized-bed source by cyclones, a fabric filter, and a electrostatic precipitator at various temperatures were compared for particle size, toxicity, and mutagenicity. Results demonstrated that the biological activity of coal fly ash were affected by the collection site, device, and temperature.^ Coal fly ash vapor-coated with 1-nitropyrene was developed as a model system to study the bioavailability and recovery of nitroaromatic compounds in fly ash. The effects of vapor deposition on toxicity and mutagenicity of fly ash were examined. The nitropyrene coating did not significantly alter the ash's cytotoxicity. Nitropyrene was bioavailable in the biological media, and a significant percentage was not recovered after the coated fly ash was cultured with alveolar macrophages. 1-Nitropyrene loss increased as the number of macrophages was increased, suggesting that the macrophages are capable of metabolizing or binding 1-nitropyrene present in coal fly ash. ^

Modeled integrated responses of ppERK1 and ppERK2 of normal and elevated ERK1 and ERK2 levels (Figure 5b)

The present dataset contain source data for Figure 5b from Schilling et al., 2009. Cell fate decisions are regulated by the coordinated activation of signalling pathways such as the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) cascade, but contributions of individual kinase isoforms are mostly unknown. The authors combined quantitative data from erythropoietin-induced pathway activation in primary erythroid progenitor (colony-forming unit erythroid stage, CFU-E) cells with mathematical modelling, in order to predict and experimentally confirmed a distributive ERK phosphorylation mechanism in CFU-E cells. The authors found evidences that double-phosphorylated ERK1 attenuates proliferation beyond a certain activation level, whereas activated ERK2 enhances proliferation with saturation kinetics. They show integrated responses of double-phosphorylated ERK1 and ERK2 that were calculated for different Epo concentrations for the original model as well as for models with elevated ERK1 or ERK2 levels.

Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Integrated values of heterotrophic picoplankton and primary production (euphotic zone) in the Antarctic polar frontal region during POLARSTERN cruises ANT-XIII/2 and ANT-XVI/3

We assessed relationships between phytoplankton standing stock, measured as chlorophyll a (Chl a), primary production (PP), and heterotrophic picoplankton production (HPP), in the epipelagic zone (0-100 m) as well as in the mesopelagic zone (100-1,000 m) in the polar frontal zone of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean in austral summer (late December to January) and fall (March to early May). Integrated epipelagic HPP was positively correlated to integrated PP in summer (data for fall are not available) but not to integrated Chl a. However, integrated mesopelagic HPP was positively correlated to Chl a in summer as well as fall. The mesopelagic fraction of HPP as a percentage of total HPP was also positively correlated to Chl a, whereas the epipelagic fraction of HPP was negatively correlated to it. These results indicate that with increasing phytoplankton standing stock, constituted mainly of highly silicified diatoms, the focus of its consumption by heterotrophic picoplankton shifts from epipelagic to mesopelagic waters. With a growth efficiency of 30%, our HPP data indicate that in both the epipelagic and mesopelagic zone heterotrophic picoplankton consume 20% of PP. Mesopelagic heterotrophic picoplankton consumed around 80% of the sinking flux, measured from depletion of 234Th, which is a lower fraction than that reported from the central and subarctic Pacific. Our analysis indicates that it is important to include mesopelagic HPP in comprehensive assessments of the microbial consumption of PP, phytoplankton biomass, and particulate organic matter in cold oceanic systems with high rates of export production.