The transformation of earth-system observations into information of socio-economic value in GEOSS

The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value.

The impact of finer-resolution air-sea coupling on the intraseasonal oscillation of the Indian monsoon

The new HadKPP atmosphere–ocean coupled model is described and then used to determine the effects of sub-daily air–sea coupling and fine near-surface ocean vertical resolution on the representation of the Northern Hemisphere summer intra-seasonal oscillation. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre atmospheric model coupled to the K Profile Parameterization ocean-boundary-layer model. Four 30-member ensembles were performed that varied in oceanic vertical resolution between 1 m and 10 m and in coupling frequency between 3 h and 24 h. The 10 m, 24 h ensemble exhibited roughly 60% of the observed 30–50 day variability in sea-surface temperatures and rainfall and very weak northward propagation. Enhancing either only the vertical resolution or only the coupling frequency produced modest improvements in variability and only a standing intra-seasonal oscillation. Only the 1 m, 3 h configuration generated organized, northward-propagating convection similar to observations. Sub-daily surface forcing produced stronger upper-ocean temperature anomalies in quadrature with anomalous convection, which likely affected lower-atmospheric stability ahead of the convection, causing propagation. Well-resolved air–sea coupling did not improve the eastward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation in this model. Upper-ocean vertical mixing and diurnal variability in coupled models must be improved to accurately resolve and simulate tropical sub-seasonal variability. In HadKPP, the mere presence of air–sea coupling was not sufficient to generate an intra-seasonal oscillation resembling observations.

Prolonged effects of modified sham feeding on energy substrate mobilization

Background: Vagal stimulation in response to nutrients is reported to elicit an array of digestive and endocrine responses, including an alteration in postprandial lipid metabolism. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess whether neural stimulation could alter hormone and substrate metabolism during the late postprandial phase, with implications for body fat mobilization. Design: Vagal stimulation was achieved by using the modified sham feeding (MSF) technique, in which nutrients are chewed and tasted but not swallowed. Ten healthy subjects were studied on 3 separate occasions, 4 wk apart. Five hours after a high-fat breakfast (56 g fat), the subjects were given 1 of 3 test meals allocated in random order: water, a lunch containing a modest amount of fat (38 g), or MSF (38 g fat). Blood was collected for 3 h poststimulus for hormone and metabolite analyses. Results: Plasma insulin and pancreatic polypeptide concentrations peaked at 250% and 209% of baseline concentrations within 15 min of MSF. The plasma glucose concentration increased significantly (P = 0.038) in parallel with the changes observed in the plasma insulin concentration. The nonesterified fatty acid concentration was significantly suppressed (P = 0.006); maximum suppression occurred at a mean time of 114 min after MSF. This fall in nonesterified fatty acid was accompanied by a fall in the plasma glucagon concentration from 122 to 85 pmol/L (P = 0.018) at a mean time of 113 min after MSF. Conclusions: Effects on substrate metabolism after MSF in the postprandial state differ from those usually reported in the postabsorptive state. The effects of MSF were prolonged beyond the period of the cephalic response and these may be relevant for longer-term metabolic regulation.

Inulin and oligofructose: effects on lipid metabolism from human studies

Although convincing lipid-lowering effects of the fructo-oligosaccharide, inulin, have been demonstrated in animals, attempts to reproduce similar effects in man have produced conflicting findings. This may be because of the much lower doses which can be used due to the adverse gastrointestinal symptoms exhibited by most subjects consuming in excess of 15 g/d. There are nine studies reported in the literature which have investigated the response of blood lipids (usually total and LDL-cholesterol and triacylglycerol) to inulin or oligofructose supplementation in human volunteers. Three have observed no effects of inulin or oligofructose on blood levels of cholesterol or triacylglycerol, three have shown significant reductions in triacylglycerol, whilst four have shown modest reductions in total and LDL-cholesterol. Studies have been conducted in both normo- and moderately hyperlipidaemic subjects. Differences in study outcomes do not appear to be due to differences in the type or dose of oligosaccharides used nor the duration of the studies. Because animal studies have identified inhibition of hepatic fatty acid synthesis as the major site of action for the triacylglycerol lowering effects of inulin and oligofructose, and because this pathway is relatively inactive in man unless a high carbohydrate diet is fed, variability in response may be a reflection of differences in background diet or the experimental foods used.

A review of the evidence for the effects of total dietary fat, SFA, MUFA and n-6 PUFA on vascular function, endothelial progenitor cells and microparticles

Vascular dysfunction is recognised as an integrative marker of CVD. While dietary strategies aimed at reducing CVD risk include reductions in the intake of SFA, there are currently no clear guidelines on what should replace SFA. The purpose of this review was to assess the evidence for the effects of total dietary fat and individual fatty acids (SFA, MUFA and n-6 PUFA) on vascular function, cellular microparticles and endothelial progenitor cells. Medline was systematically searched from 1966 until November 2010. A total of fifty-nine peer-reviewed publications (covering fifty-six studies), which included five epidemiological, eighteen dietary intervention and thirty-three test meal studies, were identified. The findings from the epidemiological studies were inconclusive. The limited data available from dietary intervention studies suggested a beneficial effect of low-fat diets on vascular reactivity, which was strongest when the comparator diet was high in SFA, with a modest improvement in measures of vascular reactivity when high-fat, MUFA-rich diets were compared with SFA-rich diets. There was consistent evidence from the test meal studies that high-fat meals have a detrimental effect on postprandial vascular function. However, the evidence for the comparative effects of test meals rich in MUFA or n-6 PUFA with SFA on postprandial vascular function was limited and inconclusive. The lack of studies with comparable within-study dietary fatty acid targets, a variety of different study designs and different methods for determining vascular function all confound any clear conclusions on the impact of dietary fat and individual fatty acids on vascular function.

The evaluation of CloudSat and CALIPSO ice microphysical products using ground-based cloud radar and lidar observations

In this paper, the statistical properties of tropical ice clouds (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, and total number concentration) derived from 3 yr of ground-based radar–lidar retrievals from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility in Darwin, Australia, are compared with the same properties derived using the official CloudSat microphysical retrieval methods and from a simpler statistical method using radar reflectivity and air temperature. It is shown that the two official CloudSat microphysical products (2B-CWC-RO and 2B-CWC-RVOD) are statistically virtually identical. The comparison with the ground-based radar–lidar retrievals shows that all satellite methods produce ice water contents and extinctions in a much narrower range than the ground-based method and overestimate the mean vertical profiles of microphysical parameters below 10-km height by over a factor of 2. Better agreements are obtained above 10-km height. Ways to improve these estimates are suggested in this study. Effective radii retrievals from the standard CloudSat algorithms are characterized by a large positive bias of 8–12 μm. A sensitivity test shows that in response to such a bias the cloud longwave forcing is increased from 44.6 to 46.9 W m−2 (implying an error of about 5%), whereas the negative cloud shortwave forcing is increased from −81.6 to −82.8 W m−2. Further analysis reveals that these modest effects (although not insignificant) can be much larger for optically thick clouds. The statistical method using CloudSat reflectivities and air temperature was found to produce inaccurate mean vertical profiles and probability distribution functions of effective radius. This study also shows that the retrieval of the total number concentration needs to be improved in the official CloudSat microphysical methods prior to a quantitative use for the characterization of tropical ice clouds. Finally, the statistical relationship used to produce ice water content from extinction and air temperature obtained by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite is evaluated for tropical ice clouds. It is suggested that the CALIPSO ice water content retrieval is robust for tropical ice clouds, but that the temperature dependence of the statistical relationship used should be slightly refined to better reproduce the radar–lidar retrievals.

Why was urban overcrowding much more severe in Scotland than in the rest of the British Isles? Evidence from the first (1904) official household expenditure survey

This article presents an analysis of British urban working-class housing conditions in 1904, using a rediscovered survey. We investigate overcrowding and find major regional differences. Scottish households in the survey were more overcrowded despite being less poor. Investigating the causes of this overcrowding, we find little support for supply-side theories or for the idea that the Scottish households in our survey experienced particularly great variations in income, causing them to commit to overly modest accommodation. We present evidence that is consistent with idea that particularly tough Scottish tenancy and local tax laws caused excess overcrowding. We also provide evidence that Scottish workers had a relatively high preference for food, rather than housing, expenditure, which can be at least partly attributed to their inheritance of more communal patterns of urban living.

A single director switching mode for monodomain liquid crystal elastomer

We report rotation of a single director in a nematic monodomain, acrylate based side-chain elastomer which was subjected to mechanical fields applied at angles in the range to the director, , present at the time of network formation. Time and spatially resolving wide angle X-ray scattering, together with polarised light microscopy measurements revealed a pronounced, almost discontinuous switching mode at a critical extension as the strain was applied at angles approaching to , whereas a more continuous rotation was seen when the strain was applied at more acute angles. This director reorientation was more or less uniform across the complete sample and was accompanied by a modest decrease in orientation parameter . At strains sufficient to induce switching there was some continuous distribution of director orientations with fluctuations of 10 although there was no evidence for any localised director inhomogenities such as domain formation. The observed deformation behaviour of these acrylate-based nematic monodomains was in accord with the predictions of a theory developed by Bladon et al., in that the complete set of data could be accounted for through a single parameter describing the chain anisotropy. The experimentally deduced chain anisotropy parameter was in broad agreement with that obtained from small-angle neutron scattering procedures, but was somewhat greater than that obtained by spontaneous shape changes at the nematic-isotropic transition.

Riluzole neuroprotection in a parkinson’s disease model involves suppression of reactive astrocytosis but not GLT-1 regulation

Background Riluzole is a neuroprotective drug used in the treatment of motor neurone disease. Recent evidence suggests that riluzole can up-regulate the expression and activity of the astrocyte glutamate transporter, GLT-1. Given that regulation of glutamate transport is predicted to be neuroprotective in Parkinson's disease, we tested the effect of riluzole in parkinsonian rats which had received a unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine injection into the median forebrain bundle. Results Rats were treated with intraperitoneal riluzole (4 mg/kg or 8 mg/kg), 1 hour before the lesion then once daily for seven days. Riluzole produced a modest but significant attenuation of dopamine neurone degeneration, assessed by suppression of amphetamine-induced rotations, preservation of tyrosine hydroxylase positive neuronal cell bodies in the substantia nigra pars compacta and attenuation of striatal tyrosine hydroxylase protein loss. Seven days after 6-hydroxydopamine lesion, reactive astrocytosis was observed in the striatum, as determined by increases in expression of glial fibrillary acidic protein, however the glutamate transporter, GLT-1, which is also expressed in astrocytes was not regulated by the lesion. Conclusions The results confirm that riluzole is a neuroprotective agent in a rodent model of parkinson’s disease. Riluzole administration did not regulate GLT-1 levels but significantly reduced GFAP levels, in the lesioned striatum. Riluzole suppression of reactive astrocytosis is an intriguing finding which might contribute to the neuroprotective effects of this drug.

Synthesis and incorporation into cyclic peptides of tolan amino acids and their hydrogenated congeners: construction of an array of A–B-loop mimetics of the Cε3 domain of human IgE

The disruption of the human immunolobulin E–high affinity receptor I (IgE–FcεRI) protein–protein interaction (PPI) is a validated strategy for the development of anti asthma therapeutics. Here, we describe the synthesis of an array of conformationally constrained cyclic peptides based on an epitope of the A–B loop within the Cε3 domain of IgE. The peptides contain various tolan (i.e., 1,2-biarylethyne) amino acids and their fully and partially hydrogenated congeners as conformational constraints. Modest antagonist activity (IC50 660 μM) is displayed by the peptide containing a 2,2′-tolan, which is the one predicted by molecular modeling to best mimic the conformation of the native A–B loop epitope in IgE.

The possibility of lowering oil content of potato chips by combining atmospheric frying with postfrying vacuum application

Four protocols involving the application of low pressures, either toward the end of frying or after frying, were investigated with the aim of lowering the oil content of potato chips. Protocol 1 involving frying at atmospheric pressure followed by a 3 min draining time constituted the control. Protocol 2 involved lowering of pressure to 13.33 kPa, 40 s before the end of frying, followed by draining for 3 min at the same pressure. Protocol 3 was the same as protocol 2, except that the pressure was lowered 3 s before the end of frying. Protocol 4 involved lowering the pressure to 13.33 kPa after the product was lifted from the oil and holding it at this value over the draining time of 3 min. Protocol 4 gave a product having the lowest oil content (37.12 g oil/100 g defatted dry matter), while protocol 2 gave the product with highest oil content (71.10 g oil/100 g defatted dry matter), followed by those obtained using protocols 1 and 3(68.48 g oil/100 g defatted dry matter and 52.50 g oil/100 g defatted dry matter, respectively). Protocol 4 was further evaluated to study the effects of draining times and vacuum applied, and compared with the control. It was noted that over the modest range of pressures investigated, there was no significant effect of the vacuum applied on the oil content of the product. This study demonstrates that the oil content of potato chips can be lowered significantly by combining atmospheric frying with draining under vacuum.

Mid-term evaluation of African Technology Policy Studies Network Phase VI Strategic Plan: for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010

The African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS) is a multidisciplinary network of researchers, private sector actors, policymakers and civil society. ATPS has the vision to become the leading international centre of excellence and reference in science, technology and innovation (STI) systems research, training and capacity building, communication and sensitization, knowledge brokerage, policy advocacy and outreach in Africa. It has a Regional Secretariat in Nairobi Kenya, and operates through national chapters in 29 countries (including 27 in Africa and two Chapters in the United Kingdom and USA for Africans in the Diaspora) with an expansion plan to cover the entire continent by 2015. The ATPS Phase VI Strategic Plan aims to improve the understanding and functioning of STI processes and systems to strengthen the learning capacity, social responses, and governance of STI for addressing Africa's development challenges, with a specific focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). A team of external evaluators carried out a midterm review to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of the Strategic Plan for the period January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010. The evaluation methodology involved multiple quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the qualitative and quantitative inputs (human resources, financial resources, time, etc.) into ATPS activities (both thematic and facilitative) and their tangible and intangible outputs, outcomes and impacts. Methods included a questionnaire survey of ATPS members and stakeholders, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions (FGDs) with members in six countries. Effectiveness of Programmes Under all six strategic goals, very good progress has been made towards planned outputs and outcomes. This is evidenced by key performance indicators (KPIs) generated from desk review, ratings from the survey respondents, and the themes that run through the FGDs. Institutional and Programme Cost Effectiveness Institutional Effectiveness: assessment of institutional effectiveness suggests that adequate management frameworks are in place and are being used effectively and transparently. Also technical and financial accounting mechanisms are being followed in accordance with grant agreements and with global good practice. This is evidenced by KPIs generated from desk review. Programme Cost Effectiveness: assessment of cost-effectiveness of execution of programmes shows that organisational structure is efficient, delivering high quality, relevant research at relatively low cost by international standards. The evidence includes KPIs from desk review: administrative costs to programme cost ratio has fallen steadily, to around 10%; average size of research grants is modest, without compromising quality. There is high level of pro bono input by ATPS members. ATPS Programmes Strategic Evaluation ATPS research and STI related activities are indeed unique and well aligned with STI issues and needs facing Africa and globally. The multi-disciplinary and trans-boundary nature of the research activities are creating a unique group of research scientists. The ATPS approach to research and STI issues is paving the way for the so called Third Generation University (3GU). Understanding this unique positioning, an increasing number of international multilateral agencies are seeking partnership with ATPS. ATPS is seeing an increasing level of funding commitments by Donor Partners. Recommendations for ATPS Continued Growth and Effectiveness On-going reform of ATPS administrative structure to continue The on-going reforms that have taken place within the Board, Regional Secretariat, and at the National Chapter coordination levels are welcomed. Such reform should continue until fully functional corporate governance policy and practices are fully established and implemented across the ATPS governance structures. This will further strengthen ATPS to achieve the vision of being the leading STI policy brokerage organization in Africa. Although training in corporate governance has been carried out for all sectors of ATPS leadership structure in recent time, there is some evidence that these systems have not yet been fully implemented effectively within all the governance structures of the organization, especially at the Board and National chapter levels. Future training should emphasize practical application with exercises relevant to ATPS leadership structure from the Board to the National Chapter levels. Training on Transformational Leadership - Leading a Change Though a subject of intense debate amongst economists and social scientists, it is generally agreed that cultural mindsets and attitudes could enhance and/or hinder organizational progress. ATPS’s vision demands transformational leadership skills amongst its leaders from the Board members to the National Chapter Coordinators. To lead such a change, ATPS leaders must understand and avoid personal and cultural mindsets and value systems that hinder change, while embracing those that enhance it. It requires deliberate assessment of cultural, behavioural patterns that could hinder progress and the willingness to be recast into cultural and personal habits that make for progress. Improvement of relationship amongst the Board, Secretariat, and National Chapters A large number of ATPS members and stakeholders feel they do not have effective communications and/or access to Board, National Chapter Coordinators and Regional Secretariat activities. Effort should be made to improve the implementation of ATPS communication strategy to improve on information flows amongst the ATPS management and the members. The results of the survey and the FGDs suggest that progress has been made during the past two years in this direction, but more could be done to ensure effective flow of pertinent information to members following ATPS communications channels. Strategies for Increased Funding for National Chapters There is a big gap between the fundraising skills of the Regional Secretariat and those of the National Coordinators. In some cases, funds successfully raised by the Secretariat and disbursed to national chapters were not followed up with timely progress and financial reports by some national chapters. Adequate training in relevant skills required for effective interactions with STI key policy players should be conducted regularly for National Chapter coordinators and ATPS members. The ongoing training in grant writing should continue and be made continent-wide if funding permits. Funding of National Chapters should be strategic such that capacity in a specific area of research is built which, with time, will not only lead to a strong research capacity in that area, but also strengthen academic programmes. For example, a strong climate change programme is emerging at University of Nigeria Nsukka (UNN), with strong collaborations with Universities from neighbouring States. Strategies to Increase National Government buy-in and support for STI Translating STI research outcomes into policies requires a great deal of emotional intelligence, skills which are often lacking in the first and second generation universities. In the epoch of the science-based or 2GUs, governments were content with universities carrying out scientific research and providing scientific education. Now they desire to see universities as incubators of new science- or technology-based commercial activities, whether by existing firms or start-ups. Hence, governments demand that universities take an active and leading role in the exploitation of their knowledge and they are willing to make funds available to support such activities. Thus, for universities to gain the attention of national leadership they must become centres of excellence and explicit instruments of economic development in the knowledge-based economy. The universities must do this while working collaboratively with government departments, parastatals, and institutions and dedicated research establishments. ATPS should anticipate these shifting changes and devise programmes to assist both government and universities to relate effectively. New administrative structures in member organizations to sustain and manage the emerging STI multidisciplinary teams Second Generation universities (2GUs) tend to focus on pure science and often do not regard the application of their know-how as their task. In contrast, Third Generation Universities (3GUs) objectively stimulate techno-starters – students or academics – to pursue the exploitation or commercialisation of the knowledge they generate. They view this as being equal in importance to the objectives of scientific research and education. Administratively, research in the 2GU era was mainly monodisciplinary and departments were structured along disciplines. The emerging interdisciplinary scientific teams with focus on specific research areas functionally work against the current mono-disciplinary faculty-based, administrative structure of 2GUs. For interdisciplinary teams, the current faculty system is an obstacle. There is a need for new organisational forms for university management that can create responsibilities for the task of know-how exploitation. ATPS must anticipate this and begin to strategize solutions for their member institutions to transition to 3Gus administrative structure, otherwise ATPS growth will plateau, and progress achieved so far may be stunted.

Modelling economic returns to plant variety protection in the UK

This paper attempts an empirical assessment of the incentive effects of plant variety protection regimes in the generation of crop variety innovations. A duration model of plant variety protection certificates is used to infer the private appropriability of returns from agricultural crop variety innovations in the UK over the period 1965-2000. The results suggest that plant variety protection provides only modest appropriability of returns to innovators of agricultural crop varieties. The value distribution of plant variety protection certificates is highly skewed with a large proportion of innovations providing virtually no returns to innovators. Increasing competition from newer varieties appears to have accelerated the turnover of varieties reducing appropriability further. Plant variety protection emerges as a relatively weak instrument of protection.

Changing climate and the Irish landscape

The impacts of current and future changes in climate have been investigated for Irish vegetation. Warming has been observed over the last two decades, with impacts that are also strongly influenced by natural oscillations of the surrounding ocean, seen as fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Satellite observations show that vegetation greenness increases in warmer years, a feature mirrored by increases in net ecosystem production observed for a grassland and a plantation forest. An ensemble of general circulation model simulations of future climates indicate temperature rises over the twenty-first century ranging from 1°C to 7°C, depending on future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Net primary production is simulated to increase under all scenarios, due to the positive impacts of rising temperature, a modest rise of precipitation and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. In an optimistic scenario of reducing future emissions, CO2 concentration is simulated to flatten from about 2070, although temperatures continue to increase. Under this scenario Ireland could become a source of carbon, whereas under all other emission scenarios Ireland is a sink for carbon that may increase by up to three-fold over the twenty-first century. A likely and unavoidable impact of changing climate is the arrival of alien plant species, which may disrupt ecosystems and exert negative impacts on native biodiversity. Alien species arrive continually, with about 250 dated arrivals in the twentieth century. A simulation model indicates that this rate of alien arrival may increase by anything between two and ten times, dependent on the future climatic scenario, by 2050. Which alien species may become severely disruptive is, however, not known.

Subjective well-being and relative poverty in rural Bangladesh

This paper revisits the debate over the importance of absolute vs. relative income as a correlate of subjective well-being using data from Bangladesh, one of the poorest countries in the world with high levels of corruption and poor governance. We do so by combining household data with population census and village survey records. Our results show that conditional on own household income, respondents report higher satisfaction levels when they experience an increase in their income over the past years. More importantly, individuals who report their income to be lower than their neighbours in the village also report less satisfaction with life. At the same time, our evidence suggests that relative wealth effect is stronger for the rich. Similarly, in villages with higher inequality, individuals report less satisfaction with life. However, when compared to the effect of absolute income, these effects (i.e. relative income and local inequality) are modest. Amongst other factors, we study the influence of institutional quality. Institutional quality, measured in terms of confidence in police, matters for well-being: it enters with a positive and significant coefficient in the well-being function.