Foliar photochemical processes and carbon metabolism under favourable and adverse winter conditions in a Mediterranean mixed forest, Catalonia (Spain)

Evergreen trees in the Mediterranean region must cope with a wide range of environmental stresses from summer drought to winter cold. The mildness of Mediterranean winters can periodically lead to favourable environmental conditions above the threshold for a positive carbon balance, benefitting evergreen woody species more than deciduous ones. The comparatively lower solar energy input in winter decreases the foliar light saturation point. This leads to a higher susceptibility to photoinhibitory stress especially when chilly (< 12 C) or freezing temperatures (< 0 C) coincide with clear skies and relatively high solar irradiances. Nonetheless, the advantage of evergreen species that are able to photosynthesize all year round where a significant fraction can be attributed to winter months, compensates for the lower carbon uptake during spring and summer in comparison to deciduous species. We investigated the ecophysiological behaviour of three co-occurring mature evergreen tree species (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., and Arbutus unedo L.). Therefore, we collected twigs from the field during a period of mild winter conditions and after a sudden cold period. After both periods, the state of the photosynthetic machinery was tested in the laboratory by estimating the foliar photosynthetic potential with CO2 response curves in parallel with chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. The studied evergreen tree species benefited strongly from mild winter conditions by exhibiting extraordinarily high photosynthetic potentials. A sudden period of frost, however, negatively affected the photosynthetic apparatus, leading to significant decreases in key physiological parameters such as the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vc,max), the maximum photosynthetic electron transport rate (Jmax), and the optimal fluorometric quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm). The responses of Vc,max and Jmax were highly species specific, with Q. ilex exhibiting the highest and P. halepensis the lowest reductions. In contrast, the optimal fluorometric quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) was significantly lower in A. unedo after the cold period. The leaf position played an important role in Q. ilex showing a stronger winter effect on sunlit leaves in comparison to shaded leaves. Our results generally agreed with the previous classifications of photoinhibition-tolerant (P. halepensis) and photoinhibitionavoiding (Q. ilex) species on the basis of their susceptibility to dynamic photoinhibition, whereas A. unedo was the least tolerant to photoinhibition, which was chronic in this species. Q. ilex and P. halepensis seem to follow contrasting photoprotective strategies. However, they seemed equally successful under the prevailing conditions exhibiting an adaptive advantage over A. unedo. These results show that our understanding of the dynamics of interspecific competition in Mediterranean ecosystems requires consideration of the physiological behaviour during winter which may have important implications for long-term carbon budgets and growth trends.

Comparison of a deterministic and a data driven model to describe MBR fouling

Membrane bioreactors (MBRs) are a combination of activated sludge bioreactors and membrane filtration, enabling high quality effluent with a small footprint. However, they can be beset by fouling, which causes an increase in transmembrane pressure (TMP). Modelling and simulation of changes in TMP could be useful to describe fouling through the identification of the most relevant operating conditions. Using experimental data from a MBR pilot plant operated for 462days, two different models were developed: a deterministic model using activated sludge model n°2d (ASM2d) for the biological component and a resistance in-series model for the filtration component as well as a data-driven model based on multivariable regressions. Once validated, these models were used to describe membrane fouling (as changes in TMP over time) under different operating conditions. The deterministic model performed better at higher temperatures (>20°C), constant operating conditions (DO set-point, membrane air-flow, pH and ORP), and high mixed liquor suspended solids (>6.9gL-1) and flux changes. At low pH (<7) or periods with higher pH changes, the data-driven model was more accurate. Changes in the DO set-point of the aerobic reactor that affected the TMP were also better described by the data-driven model. By combining the use of both models, a better description of fouling can be achieved under different operating conditions

An Interface Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination Under Variable-Mode Ratio in Composite Materials

A thermodynamically consistent damage model for the simulation of progressive delamination under variable mode ratio is presented. The model is formulated in the context of the Damage Mechanics. The constitutive equation that results from the definition of the free energy as a function of a damage variable is used to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A new delamination initiation criterion is developed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation proposed accounts for crack closure effets avoiding interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers aftercomplete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation. The numerical predictions given by the model are compared with experimental results

Horizontal Grid Size Selection and its Influence on Mesoscale Model Simulations

The use of two-dimensional spectral analysis applied to terrain heights in order to determine characteristic terrain spatial scales and its subsequent use for the objective definition of an adequate grid size required to resolve terrain forcing are presented in this paper. In order to illustrate the influence of grid size, atmospheric flow in a complex terrain area of the Spanish east coast is simulated by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical model using different horizontal grid resolutions. In this area, a grid size of 2 km is required to account for 95% of terrain variance. Comparison among results of the different simulations shows that, although the main wind behavior does not change dramatically, some small-scale features appear when using a resolution of 2 km or finer. Horizontal flow pattern differences are significant both in the nighttime, when terrain forcing is more relevant, and in the daytime, when thermal forcing is dominant. Vertical structures also are investigated, and results show that vertical advection is influenced highly by the horizontal grid size during the daytime period. The turbulent kinetic energy and potential temperature vertical cross sections show substantial differences in the structure of the planetary boundary layer for each model configuration

Response of fine root respiration to variations in biotic and abiotic factors in a mixed Mediterranean forest affected by drought-induced secondary succession

Understanding the factors controlling fine root respiration (FRR) at different temporal scales will help to improve our knowledge about the spatial and temporal variability of soil respiration (SR) and to improve future predictions of CO2 effluxes to the atmosphere. Here we present a comparative study of how FRR respond to variability in soil temperature and moisture in two widely spread species, Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Holm-oaks (HO; Quercus ilex L.). Those two species show contrasting water use strategies during the extreme summer-drought conditions that characterize the Mediterranean climate. The study was carried out on a mixed Mediterranean forest where Scots pines affected by drought induced die-back are slowly being replaced by the more drought resistant HO. FRR was measured in spring and early fall 2013 in excised roots freshly removed from the soil and collected under HO and under Scots pines at three different health stages: dead (D), defoliated (DP) and non-defoliated (NDP). Variations in soil temperature, soil water content and daily mean assimilation per tree were also recorded to evaluate FRR sensibility to abiotic and biotic environmental variations. Our results show that values of FRR were substantially lower under HO (1.26 ± 0.16 microgram CO2 /groot·min) than under living pines (1.89 ± 0.19 microgram CO2 /groot·min) which disagrees with the similar rates of soil respiration previously observed under both canopies and suggest that FRR contribution to total SR varies under different tree species. The similarity of FRR rates under HO and DP furthermore confirms other previous studies suggesting a recent Holm-oak root colonization of the gaps under dead trees. A linear mixed effect model approach indicated that seasonal variations in FRR were best explained by soil temperature (p<0.05) while soil moisture was not exerting any direct control over FRR, despite the low soil moisture values during the summer sampling. Plant assimilation rates were positively related to FRR explaining part of the observed variability (p<0.01). However the positive relations of FRR with plant assimilation occurred mainly during spring, when both soil moisture and plant assimilation rates were higher. Our results finally suggest that plants might be able to maintain relatively high rates of FRR during the sub-optimal abiotic and biotic summer conditions probably thanks to their capacity to re-mobilize carbon reserves and their capacity to passively move water from moister layers to upper layers with lower water potentials (where the FR were collected) by hydraulic lift.

A simple model for the estimation of congenital malformation frequency in racially mixed populations

A simple model is proposed, using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate malformation frequencies in racial groups based on data obtained from hospital services. This model uses the proportions of racial admixture, and the observed malformation frequency. It was applied to two defects: postaxial polydactyly and cleft lip, the frequencies of which are recognizedly heterogeneous among racial groups. The frequencies estimated in each racial group were those expected for these malformations, which proves the applicability of the method.

An experimental model of mycobacterial infection under corneal flaps

In order to develop a new experimental animal model of infection with Mycobacterium chelonae in keratomileusis, we conducted a double-blind prospective study on 24 adult male New Zealand rabbits. One eye of each rabbit was submitted to automatic lamellar keratotomy with the automatic corneal shaper under general anesthesia. Eyes were immunosuppressed by a single local injection of methyl prednisolone. Twelve animals were inoculated into the keratomileusis interface with 1 µl of 10(6) heat-inactivated bacteria (heat-inactivated inoculum controls) and 12 with 1 µl of 10(6) live bacteria. Trimethoprim drops (0.1%, w/v) were used as prophylaxis for the surgical procedure every 4 h (50 µl, qid). Animals were examined by 2 observers under a slit lamp on the 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 11th, 16th, and 23rd postoperative days. Slit lamp photographs were taken to document clinical signs. Animals were sacrificed when corneal disease was detected and corneal samples were taken for microbiological analysis. Eleven of 12 experimental rabbits developed corneal disease, and M. chelonae could be isolated from nine rabbits. Eleven of the 12 controls receiving a heat-inactivated inoculum did not develop corneal disease. M. chelonae was not isolated from any of the control rabbits receiving a heat-inactivated inoculum, or from the healthy cornea of control rabbits. Corneal infection by M. chelonae was successfully induced in rabbits submitted to keratomileusis. To our knowledge, this is the first animal model of M. chelonae infection following corneal flaps for refractive surgery to be described in the literature and can be used for the analysis of therapeutic responses.

A new model for the population pharmacokinetics of didanosine in healthy subjects

Didanosine (ddI) is a component of highly active antiretroviral therapy drug combinations, used especially in resource-limited settings and in zidovudine-resistant patients. The population pharmacokinetics of ddI was evaluated in 48 healthy volunteers enrolled in two bioequivalence studies. These data, along with a set of co-variates, were the subject of a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling analysis using the NONMEM program. A two-compartment model with first order absorption (ADVAN3 TRANS3) was fitted to the serum ddI concentration data. Final pharmacokinetic parameters, expressed as functions of the co-variates gender and creatinine clearance (CL CR), were: oral clearance (CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR + 16.6 L/h for males and CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR for females), central volume (V2 = 9.8 L), intercompartmental clearance (Q = 40.9 L/h), peripheral volume (V3 = 62.7 + 22.9 L for males and V3 = 62.7 L for females), absorption rate constant (Ka = 1.51/h), and dissolution time of the tablet (D = 0.43 h). The intraindividual (residual) variability expressed as coefficient of variation was 13.0%, whereas the interindividual variability of CL, Q, V3, Ka, and D was 20.1, 75.8, 20.6, 18.9, and 38.2%, respectively. The relatively high (>30%) interindividual variability for some of these parameters, observed under the controlled experimental settings of bioequivalence trials in healthy volunteers, may result from genetic variability of the processes involved in ddI absorption and disposition.

Ball Bearing Model Performance on Various Sized Rotors with and without Centrifugal and Gyroscopic Forces

Bearing performance signi cantly a ects the dynamic behaviors and estimated working life of a rotating system. A common bearing type is the ball bearing, which has been under investigation in numerous published studies. The complexity of the ball bearing models described in the literature varies. Naturally, model complexity is related to computational burden. In particular, the inclusion of centrifugal forces and gyroscopic moments signi cantly increases the system degrees of freedom and lengthens solution time. On the other hand, for low or moderate rotating speeds, these e ects can be neglected without signi cant loss of accuracy. The objective of this paper is to present guidelines for the appropriate selection of a suitable bearing model for three case studies. To this end, two ball bearing models were implemented. One considers high-speed forces, and the other neglects them. Both models were used to study a three structures, and the simulation results were.

Healthcare Information System Selection Model for Medical Clinics

The issue of selecting an appropriate healthcare information system is a very essential one. If implemented healthcare information system doesn’t fit particular healthcare institution, for example there are unnecessary functions; healthcare institution wastes its resources and its efficiency decreases. The purpose of this research is to develop a healthcare information system selection model to assist the decision-making process of choosing healthcare information system. Appropriate healthcare information system helps healthcare institutions to become more effective and efficient and keep up with the times. The research is based on comparison analysis of 50 healthcare information systems and 6 interviews with experts from St-Petersburg healthcare institutions that already have experience in healthcare information system utilization. 13 characteristics of healthcare information systems: 5 key and 7 additional features are identified and considered in the selection model development. Variables are used in the selection model in order to narrow the decision algorithm and to avoid duplication of brunches. The questions in the healthcare information systems selection model are designed to be easy-to-understand for common a decision-maker in healthcare institution without permanent establishment.

Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.