The fitting of the German yield curve: A dynamic approach using latent, macroeconomic and stock market variables

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk factors associated with taeniasis-cysticercosis in Lagamar, Minas Gerais State, Brazil

An epidemiological survey was carried out in 3,344 people of an urban town in Lagamar, Minas Gerais, Brazil - during 1992-1993, to evaluate the main risk factors related to taeniasis and cysticercosis. A total number of 875 (78.9%) houses were visited and 1080 (32.3%) subjects were clinically examined. Poor sanitary conditions were positively associated with former history of taeniasis or seizures in households (p < 0.05). It was remarkable the positive relationship between taeniasis and seizures when households were questioned and subjects were clinically evaluated (p < 0.05). The relative risk of seizures was 2.3 between households and 1.7 for individuals clinically examined respectively. The breeding of swine nearby and the chronic carriers of taeniasis are determinant factors in the maintenance of the epidemiological link between taeniasis and cysticercosis in endemic areas.

Intestinal protozoa and helminths among Terena Indians in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul: high prevalence of Blastocystis hominis

A parasitological survey was carried out among Terena Indians living in the Tereré settlement in the municipality of Sidrolândia, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Single samples of feces from 313 Indians were processed by means of the spontaneous sedimentation method. In the population studied, 73.5% were infected with at least one intestinal parasite or commensal. Protozoa predominated. Blastocystis hominis (40.9%), Entamoeba coli (33.2%) and Entamoeba histolytica/Entamoeba dispar (31.6%) were the most common. Bivariate analysis showed that females were generally more infected and presented higher rates of infection by Entamoeba histolytica/Entamoeba dispar and Entamoeba coli. Males were more infected by hookworms and Strongyloides stercoralis than females. The precarious sanitary conditions of the Tereré settlement are probably a contributory factor towards the high prevalence of intestinal protozoa.

State detection in a financial portfolio: a self-organizing maps approach for financial time series

This study analyses financial data using the result characterization of a self-organized neural network model. The goal was prototyping a tool that may help an economist or a market analyst to analyse stock market series. To reach this goal, the tool shows economic dependencies and statistics measures over stock market series. The neural network SOM (self-organizing maps) model was used to ex-tract behavioural patterns of the data analysed. Based on this model, it was de-veloped an application to analyse financial data. This application uses a portfo-lio of correlated markets or inverse-correlated markets as input. After the anal-ysis with SOM, the result is represented by micro clusters that are organized by its behaviour tendency. During the study appeared the need of a better analysis for SOM algo-rithm results. This problem was solved with a cluster solution technique, which groups the micro clusters from SOM U-Matrix analyses. The study showed that the correlation and inverse-correlation markets projects multiple clusters of data. These clusters represent multiple trend states that may be useful for technical professionals.

Occurrence and risk factors associated with infection by Toxoplasma gondii in goats in the State of Alagoas, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Goats are considered very susceptible to infection by Toxoplasma gondii and when this occurs during pregnancy, it may cause fetal death with subsequent fetal resorption, abortion, mummification, stillborn or the birth of weak goats. The objective of this work was to determine the occurrence of and identify risk factors for T. gondii infection in goats in different mesoregions in the State of Alagoas. METHODS: The research was conducted on 24 goat breeding farms in 10 municipalities. A total of 454 blood samples were examined for anti-T. gondii antibodies by indirect immunofluorescence antibody test. To evaluate the risk factors of toxoplasmosis in goats, questionnaires were applied analyzing the farm's production system and nutritional, reproductive and sanitary management. RESULTS: Disease occurrence was 39% with 95.8% of farms presenting seropositive animals. Significant associations were observed for mesoregion (OR = 0.23; 95%CI = 0.09 - 0.57), age (OR = 0.36; 95%CI = 0.20 - 0.64), semi-intensive herd management (OR = 8.70; 95%CI = 1.87 - 40.43), access of cats to water provided for goats (OR = 3.38; 95%CI = 1.89-6.02) and cats feeding on placental remnants (OR = 2.73; 95%CI = 1.38 - 5.40). CONCLUSIONS: Toxoplasma gondii infection is disseminated in the State of Alagoas and the adoption of a program that monitors infection foci is required to reduce the risk factors identified in the present study.

Malacological survey of Biomphalaria snails in municipalities along the Estrada Real in the southeast of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The increasing practice of ecotourism and rural tourism in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, highlights the importance of studies concerning the occurrence of potential intermediate hosts of Schistosoma mansoni. This study aimed to identify species of Biomphalaria snails in municipalities along the Estrada Real, an important Brazilian tourism project. METHODS: The specimens were collected in different water collections of 36 municipalities along the Estrada Real in the southeast of the State of Minas Gerais. Biomphalaria species were characterized using both morphological and molecular approaches. The research was conducted between August 2005 and September 2009 and all the sites visited were georeferenced using GPS. RESULTS: Six Biomphalaria species were found in 30 of the 36 municipalities studied: glabrata, tenagophila, straminea, peregrina, occidentalis and schrammi. The first three species of Biomphalaria, recognized as intermediate hosts of S. mansoni, were present in 33.3%, 47.2% and 8.3% of the municipalities studied, respectively. The mollusks were found in different types of water collections and no infection by S. mansoni was detected. The highest occurrence of Biomphalaria concentration was verified in the area covered by the Caminho Novo route (Diamantina/MG to Rio de Janeiro/RJ). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the occurrence of schistosomiasis in the State of Minas Gerais and the socioeconomic repercussions involved in the Estrada Real Project, this work focuses on the vulnerability of water collections due to the presence of Biomphalaria mollusks and emphasizes the need for epidemiological surveillance and sanitary and educational measures integrated with the local community and tourism sectors.

Seroepidemiological study of human cysticercosis with blood samples collected on filter paper, in Lages, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2004-2005

INTRODUCTION: Human serofrequency of antibodies against Taenia solium antigens was determined and risk factors for cysticercosis transmission were identified. METHODS: Individuals (n=878) from periurban and rural locations of Lages, SC, were interviewed to gather demographic, sanitary and health information. Interviews and blood sample collections by finger prick on Whatman filter paper were performed from August 2004 to May 2005. Observation determined that 850 samples were suitable for analysis and were tested by ELISA using vesicular fluid of Taenia crassiceps heterologous antigen. To ensure the reliability of the results, 77 samples of the dried blood were matched with sera. The reactive samples were submitted to a serum confirmatory immunoblot (IB) test using purified Taenia crassiceps glycoproteins. RESULTS: The ELISA results for the dried blood and serum samples were statistically consistent. ELISA was positive in 186 (21.9%) out of 850 individuals. A group of 213 individuals were asked to collect vein blood for IB (186 with positive result in ELISA and 27 with inappropriate whole blood samples) and 130 attended the request. The IB was positive in 29 (3.4%) out of 850 individuals. A significant correlation (p = 0.0364) was determined among individuals who tested positive in the IB assay who practiced both pig rearing and kitchen gardening. CONCLUSIONS: ELISA with dried blood eluted from filter paper was suitable for cysticercosis population surveys. In Lages, human infection was associated with pig rearing and kitchen gardening. The prevalence index was compatible with other Latin American endemic areas.

Epidemiological aspects of dengue in Aracaju, State of Sergipe, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The dengue fever remains to be a disease of serious public health concern, and its incidence has increased in the past decades. This study aimed to characterize the epidemiological incidence of dengue in the period 2001-2010. METHODS: This is an epidemiological study of dengue in the municipality of Aracaju, state of Sergipe, in the period between 2001 and 2010, whose data were obtained from the Information System of Diseases Notifications. A descriptive analysis of the number of confirmed cases of dengue, according to year, semester, sanitary district, age, and sex, was performed. RESULTS: There were 16,462 confirmed cases, especially in 2008, which obtained the highest incidence of the disease, with 10,485 confirmed cases. The first semester obtained the highest registration of cases during the years of research; this was predominated by females between 15 and 49 years old. With regard to the territorial distribution, the second district of the municipality obtained the highest number of cases. CONCLUSIONS: In 2008, in the City of Aracaju, SE, a significant increase in the proportion of dengue cases compared with other years was verified. However, a fast decline in the other years was observed, possibly because of the intensification of preventive actions to combat the mosquito that transmits the dengue virus.

Incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis in the city of Belém, state of Pará, northern Brazil, determined by a neonatal screening program: preliminary results

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to determinate the incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis among a group of newborns (NBs) from Belém using neonatal screening. METHODS: Among the 6,000 newborns referred for investigation of genetic and metabolic diseases, 1,000 were selected for screening for congenital toxoplasmosis by determining the amount of IgM in the eluates of blood collected on filter paper. Positive tests were confirmed using paired serology of the NB and his mother. RESULTS: Out of the 1,000 NBs assessed, one had a positive screening result that was confirmed by paired serology. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis in Belém was 10/10,000 live NBs.

Biological behavior of Trypanosoma cruzi stocks obtained from the state of Amazonas, Western Brazilian Amazon, in mice

INTRODUCTION: The biological diversity of circulating Trypanosoma cruzi stocks in the Amazon region most likely plays an important role in the peculiar clinic-epidemiological features of Chagas disease in this area. METHODS: Seven stocks of T. cruzi were recently isolated in the State of Amazonas, Brazil, from humans, wild mammals, and triatomines. They belonged to the TcI and Z3 genotypes and were biologically characterized in Swiss mice. Parasitological and histopathological parameters were determined. RESULTS: Four stocks did not promote patent parasitemia in mice. Three stocks produced low parasitemia, long pre-patent periods, and a patent period of 1 day or oscillating parasitemia. Maximum parasitemia ranged from 1,400 to 2,800 trypomastigotes/0.1mL blood. Mice inoculated with the T. cruzi stocks studied showed low positivity during fresh blood examinations, ranging from 0% to 28.6%. In hemoculture, positivity ranged from 0% to 100%. Heart tissue parasitism was observed in mice inoculated with stocks AM49 and AM61. Stock AM49 triggered a moderate inflammatory process in heart tissue. A mild inflammatory process was observed in heart tissue for stocks AM28, AM38, AM61, and AM69. An inflammatory process was frequently observed in skeletal muscle. Examinations of brain tissue revealed inflammatory foci and gliosis in mice inoculated with stock AM49. CONCLUSIONS: Biological and histopathological characterization allowed us to demonstrate the low infectivity and virulence of T. cruzi stocks isolated from the State of Amazonas.

Evaluation of preventative and control measures for congenital syphilis in State of Mato Grosso

Introduction Congenital syphilis is an important health problem in Brazil. This study assessed measures aimed at the prevention and control of syphilis in the State of Mato Grosso and its capital, Cuiabá. Methods A descriptive study cross-sectional and of time trends assessing the congenital syphilis was performed in Cuiabá and Mato Grosso between 2001 and 2011. We compared maternal sociodemographic characteristics and health care utilization related to cases of congenital syphilis during the periods from 2001 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2011. We assessed the temporal trends in this disease's incidence using a simple linear regression. Results Between 2001 and 2006 in Mato Grosso, 86.8% of the mothers who had live births with congenital syphilis received prenatal care, 90.6% presented with a nontreponemal test reagent at delivery, 96.2% had no information regarding a treponemal confirmatory test at delivery, and 77.6% received inadequate treatment for syphilis; additionally, 75.8% of their partners were not treated. There was a statistically significant reduction in prenatal visits (p = 0.004) and an increase in the proportion of mothers reactive to nontreponemal tests at delivery (p = 0.031) between the two periods. No other variables were found to differ significantly between the periods. In Cuiabá, we observed a similar distribution of variables. In the state and in the capital, the increasing trend of congenital syphilis was not statistically significant. Conclusions The high incidence of congenital syphilis in Mato Grosso and the low levels of health care indicators for pregnant women with syphilis suggest the need to improve the coverage and quality of prenatal care.

The epidemiological scenario of feline sporotrichosis in Rio de Janeiro, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Introduction Sporotrichosis is a mycosis affecting both humans and animals. Within the context of the ongoing sporotrichosis epidemic in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, sick cats plays an important role in the zoonotic transmission. The aim of this study was to update the number of feline cases diagnosed at the Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (2005-2011). Methods The medical records of the cats followed were reviewed; the inclusion criterion was the isolation of Sporothrix spp. in culture. Results In total, 2,301 feline cases were identified. Conclusions These results should alert sanitary authorities to the difficulties associated with sporotrichosis control.

Epidemiological factors associated with seropositivity for toxoplasmosis in pregnant women from Gurupi, State of Tocantins, Brazil

Introduction Knowledge of the prevalence and risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii dissemination among pregnant women is relevant because the parasite can be spread from mother to infant. The objective of this study was to assess the epidemiology and risk factors of toxoplasmosis in pregnant women from Gurupi, State of Tocantins, Brazil, from February 2012 to June 2013. Methods The study population included 487 pregnant women. Sociodemographic, dietary and cultural data were collected using a standardized and validated form. Peripheral blood was collected for serologic testing using the ELISA test (IgM/IgG antibodies). The data were analyzed by comparing seropositivity with risk factors using crude and adjusted odds ratios. Results The prevalence rate for IgG and IgM antibodies was 68.7% and 5.7%, respectively. Sociodemographic characteristics associated with toxoplasmosis risk included the following: education level ≤ 8 years (OR: 6.612; CI: 1.450-30.144), age ≥ 30 years (OR: 5.273; CI: 1.166-23.844), working outside the home (OR: 1.604; CI: 1.015-2.536), and family income of two minimum wages or lower (OR: 2.700; CI: 1.891-8.182). Regarding dietary habits, there was a significant association of seropositivity with meat intake (OR: 1.78; CI: 1.149-4.080), cutting vegetables without washing the cutting board beforehand (OR: 2.051; CI: 1.165-3.614), frequent intake of vegetables (OR: 2.051; CI: 1.368-3.006) and in natura milk intake (OR: 2.422; CI: 1.014-5.785). Conclusions The high prevalence rates of toxoplasmosis in Gurupi are related to age, raw meat and in natura milk intake, as well as education level, working outside the home, and poor hygienic habits during meal preparation.

The exotic palm Roystonea oleracea(Jacq.) O.F. Cook as a rural biotype for Rhodnius neglectus Lent, 1954, in Caçu, State of Goiás

IntroductionRhodnius neglectus is a triatomine that colonizes different palm species. In this study, we aimed to describe the presence of this triatomine bug in the royal palms (Roystonea oleracea) in a rural region of the State of Goiás.MethodsPalm infestation was investigated by dissecting the palms or by using live-bait traps.ResultsTwo palm trees were infested by R. neglectusnegative for Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent for Chagas disease. In the study area, R. neglectus is frequently found in households.ConclusionsThe adaptation of this species to palm trees introduced in Brazil for landscaping purposes poses another challenge for controlling the vectors of Chagas disease.

Presence of anti-Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis antibodies in blood donors in the West-Central region of the State of Paraná, Brazil

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:Serological screening in blood banks does not include all transmittable diseases. American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) has a high detection rate in the municipalities of the State of Paraná.METHODS:This study analyzed the presence of anti- Leishmania braziliensisantibodies in 176 blood donors who live in these endemic areas. The variables were analyzed with the χ2 test and Stata 9.1 software. RESULTS: Twenty (11.4%) samples were positive for the presence of anti- L. braziliensisantibodies. CONCLUSIONS: The high percentage of donors with anti- Leishmania spp. antibodies indicates the need to study the risk of ACL transmission through blood donors.