Co-benefits, trade-offs, barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost-competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case-by-case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land-use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process.

Contrasting geochemical signatures on land from the Middle and Late Permian extinction events

The end of the Palaeozoic is marked by two mass-extinction events during the Middle Permian (Capitanian) and the Late Permian (Changhsingian). Given similarities between the two events in geochemical signatures, such as large magnitude negative C-13 anomalies, sedimentological signatures such as claystone breccias, and the approximate contemporaneous emplacement of large igneous provinces, many authors have sought a common causal mechanism. Here, a new high-resolution continental record of the Capitanian event from Portal Mountain, Antarctica, is compared with previously published Changhsingian records of geochemical signatures of weathering intensity and palaeoclimatic change. Geochemical means of discriminating sedimentary provenance (Ti/Al, U/Th and La/Ce ratios) all indicate a common provenance for the Portal Mountain sediments and associated palaeosols, so changes spanning the Capitanian extinction represent changes in weathering intensity rather than sediment source. Proxies for weathering intensity chemical index of alteration, W and rare earth element accumulation all decline across the Capitanian extinction event at Portal Mountain, which is in contrast to the increased weathering recorded globally at the Late Permian extinction. Furthermore, palaeoclimatic proxies are consistent with unchanging or cooler climatic conditions throughout the Capitanian event, which contrasts with Changhsingian records that all indicate a significant syn-extinction and post-extinction series of greenhouse warming events. Although both the Capitanian and Changhsingian event records indicate significant redox shifts, palaeosol geochemistry of the Changhsingian event indicates more reducing conditions, whereas the new Capitanian record of reduced trace metal abundances (Cr, Cu, Ni and Ce) indicates more oxidizing conditions. Taken together, the differences in weathering intensity, redox and the lack of evidence for significant climatic change in the new record suggest that the Capitanian mass extinction was not triggered by dyke injection of coal-beds, as in the Changhsingian extinction, and may instead have been triggered directly by the Emeishan large igneous province or by the interaction of Emeishan basalts with platform carbonates.

Discovering Math APIs by Mining Unit Tests

In today's API-rich world, programmer productivity depends heavily on the programmer's ability to discover the required APIs. In this paper, we present a technique and tool, called MATHFINDER, to discover APIs for mathematical computations by mining unit tests of API methods. Given a math expression, MATHFINDER synthesizes pseudo-code to compute the expression by mapping its subexpressions to API method calls. For each subexpression, MATHFINDER searches for a method such that there is a mapping between method inputs and variables of the subexpression. The subexpression, when evaluated on the test inputs of the method under this mapping, should produce results that match the method output on a large number of tests. We implemented MATHFINDER as an Eclipse plugin for discovery of third-party Java APIs and performed a user study to evaluate its effectiveness. In the study, the use of MATHFINDER resulted in a 2x improvement in programmer productivity. In 96% of the subexpressions queried for in the study, MATHFINDER retrieved the desired API methods as the top-most result. The top-most pseudo-code snippet to implement the entire expression was correct in 93% of the cases. Since the number of methods and unit tests to mine could be large in practice, we also implement MATHFINDER in a MapReduce framework and evaluate its scalability and response time.

Mining Unit Tests for Discovery and Migration of Math APIs

Today's programming languages are supported by powerful third-party APIs. For a given application domain, it is common to have many competing APIs that provide similar functionality. Programmer productivity therefore depends heavily on the programmer's ability to discover suitable APIs both during an initial coding phase, as well as during software maintenance. The aim of this work is to support the discovery and migration of math APIs. Math APIs are at the heart of many application domains ranging from machine learning to scientific computations. Our approach, called MATHFINDER, combines executable specifications of mathematical computations with unit tests (operational specifications) of API methods. Given a math expression, MATHFINDER synthesizes pseudo-code comprised of API methods to compute the expression by mining unit tests of the API methods. We present a sequential version of our unit test mining algorithm and also design a more scalable data-parallel version. We perform extensive evaluation of MATHFINDER (1) for API discovery, where math algorithms are to be implemented from scratch and (2) for API migration, where client programs utilizing a math API are to be migrated to another API. We evaluated the precision and recall of MATHFINDER on a diverse collection of math expressions, culled from algorithms used in a wide range of application areas such as control systems and structural dynamics. In a user study to evaluate the productivity gains obtained by using MATHFINDER for API discovery, the programmers who used MATHFINDER finished their programming tasks twice as fast as their counterparts who used the usual techniques like web and code search, IDE code completion, and manual inspection of library documentation. For the problem of API migration, as a case study, we used MATHFINDER to migrate Weka, a popular machine learning library. Overall, our evaluation shows that MATHFINDER is easy to use, provides highly precise results across several math APIs and application domains even with a small number of unit tests per method, and scales to large collections of unit tests.

Assessment of land surface temperature and heat fluxes over Delhi using remote sensing data

Surface energy processes has an essential role in urban weather, climate and hydrosphere cycles, as well in urban heat redistribution. The research was undertaken to analyze the potential of Landsat and MODIS data in retrieving biophysical parameters in estimating land surface temperature & heat fluxes diurnally in summer and winter seasons of years 2000 and 2010 and understanding its effect on anthropogenic heat disturbance over Delhi and surrounding region. Results show that during years 2000-2010, settlement and industrial area increased from 5.66 to 11.74% and 4.92 to 11.87% respectively which in turn has direct effect on land surface temperature (LST) and heat fluxes including anthropogenic heat flux. Based on the energy balance model for land surface, a method to estimate the increase in anthropogenic heat flux (Has) has been proposed. The settlement and industrial areas has higher amounts of energy consumed and has high values of Has in all seasons. The comparison of satellite derived LST with that of field measured values show that Landsat estimated values are in close agreement within error of 2 degrees C than MODIS with an error of 3 degrees C. It was observed that, during 2000 and 2010, the average change in surface temperature using Landsat over settlement & industrial areas of both seasons is 1.4 degrees C & for MODIS data is 3.7 degrees C. The seasonal average change in anthropogenic heat flux (Has) estimated using Landsat & MODIS is up by around 38 W/m(2) and 62 W/m(2) respectively while higher change is observed over settlement and concrete structures. The study reveals that the dynamic range of Has values has increased in the 10 year period due to the strong anthropogenic influence over the area. The study showed that anthropogenic heat flux is an indicator of the strength of urban heat island effect, and can be used to quantify the magnitude of the urban heat island effect. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association Rule Sharing Model for Privacy Preservation and Collaborative Data Mining Efficiency

The disclosure of information and its misuse in Privacy Preserving Data Mining (PPDM) systems is a concern to the parties involved. In PPDM systems data is available amongst multiple parties collaborating to achieve cumulative mining accuracy. The vertically partitioned data available with the parties involved cannot provide accurate mining results when compared to the collaborative mining results. To overcome the privacy issue in data disclosure this paper describes a Key Distribution-Less Privacy Preserving Data Mining (KDLPPDM) system in which the publication of local association rules generated by the parties is published. The association rules are securely combined to form the combined rule set using the Commutative RSA algorithm. The combined rule sets established are used to classify or mine the data. The results discussed in this paper compare the accuracy of the rules generated using the C4. 5 based KDLPPDM system and the CS. 0 based KDLPPDM system using receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC).

Prediction of Land Surface Temperature under Cloudy Conditions using Microwave Remote Sensing and ANN

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important variable in climate, hydrologic, ecological, biophysical and biochemical studies (Mildrexler et al., 2011). The most effective way to obtain LST measurements is through satellites. Presently, LST from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor is applied in various fields due to its high spatial and temporal availability over the globe, but quite difficult to provide observations in cloudy conditions. This study evolves of prediction of LST under clear and cloudy conditions using microwave vegetation indices (MVIs), elevation, latitude, longitude and Julian day as inputs employing an artificial neural network (ANN) model. MVIs can be obtained even under cloudy condition, since microwave radiation has an ability to penetrate through clouds. In this study LST and MVIs data of the year 2010 for the Cauvery basin on a daily basis were obtained from MODIS and advanced microwave scanning radiometer (AMSR-E) sensors of aqua satellite respectively. Separate ANN models were trained and tested for the grid cells for which both LST and MVI were available. The performance of the models was evaluated based on standard evaluation measures. The best performing model was used to predict LST where MVIs were available. Results revealed that predictions of LST using ANN are in good agreement with the observed values. The ANN approach presented in this study promises to be useful for predicting LST using satellite observations even in cloudy conditions. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. center dot Land-use changes affect global and regional climates through both biochemical and biophysical process. center dot Climate effect from biophysical process depends on the location of land-use change. center dot Climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation/reforestation should consider the net effect of biochemical and biophysical processes for effective mitigation. center dot Climate-smart agriculture could use bio-geoengineering techniques that consider plant biophysical characteristics such as reflectivity and water use efficiency.

Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

PIB: Profiling Influential Blogger in Online Social Networks, A Knowledge Driven Data Mining Approach

Online Social Networks (OSNs) facilitate to create and spread information easily and rapidly, influencing others to participate and propagandize. This work proposes a novel method of profiling Influential Blogger (IB) based on the activities performed on one's blog documents who influences various other bloggers in Social Blog Network (SBN). After constructing a social blogging site, a SBN is analyzed with appropriate parameters to get the Influential Blog Power (IBP) of each blogger in the network and demonstrate that profiling IB is adequate and accurate. The proposed Profiling Influential Blogger (PIB) Algorithm survival rate of IB is high and stable. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Imminent Geologic and Hydrologic Hazards on Fort Ord BLM Land

The Bureau of Land Management acquired 7,500 acres of land as part of the re-use of the decommissioned Fort Ord Army base. A variety of geologic hazards exist on the landscape including gully erosion, mass wasting, and decaying earthen dams. This short report highlights a few critical areas that deserve closer evaluation and remediation. Of particular concern are decaying earthen dams and mass wasting of tall stream banks that may impact BLM infrastructure or adjacent urban development. (Document contains 13 paGES)