Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in Western Queelsland

Researchers developing climate-based forecasts, workshops, software tools and information to aid grazier decisions undertook an evaluation study to enhance planning and benchmark impact. One hundred graziers in Western Queensland were randomly selected from 7 shires and surveyed by mail and telephone (43 respondents) to explore levels of knowledge and use of climate information, practices and information needs. We found 36% of respondents apply the Southern Oscillation Index to property decisions but 92% were unaware El Niño Southern Oscillation’s predictive signal in the region is greater for pasture growth than rainfall, suggesting they may not recognise the potential of pasture growth forecasts. Almost 75% of graziers consider they are conservative or risk averse in their attitude to managing their enterprise. Mail respondents (n= 20) if given a 68%, on average, probability of exceeding median rainfall forecast may change a decision; almost two-thirds vary stocking rate based on forage available, last year’s pasture growth or the Southern Oscillation Index; the balance maintain a constant stocking rate strategy; 90% have access to a computer; 75% to the internet and 95% have a fax. This paper presents findings of the study and draws comparisons with a similar study of 174 irrigators in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (Aust. J. Exp. Ag. 44, 247-257). New insights and information gained are helping the team better understand client needs and plan, design and extend tools and information tailored to grazier knowledge, practice, information needs and preferences. Results have also provided a benchmark against which to measure project impact and have influenced the team to make important changes to their project planning, activities and methods for transferring technology tailored to grazier preferences.

Multidisciplinary review of teaching and assessing competency attainment by non-medical prescribers

Background Prescribing is a complex task, requiring specific knowledge and skills, and the execution of effective, context-specific clinical reasoning. Systematic reviews indicate medical prescribing errors have a median rate of 7% [IQR 2%-14%] of medication orders [1-3]. For podiatrists pursuing prescribing rights, a clear need exists to ensure practitioners develop a well-defined set of prescribing skills, which will contribute to competent, safe and appropriate practice. Aim To investigate the methods employed to teach and assess the principles of effective prescribing in the undergraduate podiatry program and compare and contrast these findings with four other non-medical professions who undertake prescribing after training at Queensland University of Technology. Method The NPS National Prescribing Competency Standards were employed as the prescribing standard. A curriculum mapping exercise was undertaken to determine whether the prescribing principles articulated in the competency standards were addressed by each profession. Results A range of methods are currently utilised to teach prescribing across disciplines. Application of prescribing competencies to the context of each profession appears to influence the teaching methods used. Most competencies were taught using a multimodal format, including interactive lectures, self-directed learning, tutorial sessions and clinical placement. In particular clinical training was identified as the most consistent form of educating safe prescribers across all five disciplines. Assessment of prescribing competency utilised multiple techniques including written and oral examinations and research tasks, case studies, objective structured clinical examination exercises and the assessment of clinical practice. Effective and reliable assessment of prescribing undertaken by students in diverse settings remains challenging e.g. that occurring in the clinical practice environment. Conclusion Recommendations were made to refine curricula and to promote efficient cross-discipline teaching by staff from the disciplines of podiatry, pharmacy, nurse practitioner, optometry and paramedic science. Students now experience a sophisticated level of multidisciplinary learning in the clinical setting which integrates the expertise and skills of experience prescribers combined with innovative information technology platforms (CCTV and live patient assessments). Further work is required to establish a practical, effective approach to the assessment of prescribing competence especially between the university and clinical settings.

Suomalaisten nuorten historiakulttuuri : Historian kohtaaminen ja käyttö 8.-luokkalaisten nuorten arkipäivän elämässä

Tutkimuskohteenani on vuonna 1988 syntyneiden suomenkielisten suomalaisten nuorten historiakulttuuri ja historiatietoisuus. Tutkimustehtävä kiteytyi kolmeen pääkysymykseen: mitkä historian välittäjäkanavat vaikuttavat eniten nuorten käsityksiin menneisyydestä, millä tavoin ja kuinka usein nuoret törmäävät historiaan arkielämässään ja millaiset historialliset tapahtumat ovat nuorille merkityksellisiä. Tutkimusjoukko muodostui 1093 kahdeksasluokkalaisesta, jotka vastasivat lomakekyselyyn kevätlukukaudella 2003. Menetelmänä käytettiin ryväsotantaa. Kyselylomake sisälsi pääosin suljettuja kysymyksiä. Tutkimuksen metodit ovat pääosin kvantitatiivisia. Analyysissa käytettiin frekvenssilaskentaa, keskiarvojen vertailua sekä havainnollistuksena taulukoita ja pylväsdiagrammeja. Kvantitatiivisilla menetelmillä kartoitettiin yleiskuvaa nuorten historiakulttuurista sekä eroja tyttöjen ja poikien välillä. Kvalitatiivista tutkimusotetta käytettiin avointen kysymysten kohdalla sekä analysoitaessa historian välittäjäkanavia julkisten ja kansanomaisten - oman, perheen ja suvun sisäisten sekä suvun ulkopuolisten - historian esityksinä. Nuorten historiatietoisuutta muokkaa eniten kouluopetus, jota vahvistaa median ylläpitämä julkinen historiakulttuuri. Viikoittaisissa historian kohtaamisissa poikien historiakulttuuria leimasivat tyttöjä enemmän julkiset historianesitykset - sanomalehdet ja visuaalinen eläytyminen television kautta - sekä historialliset roolipelit. Tyttöjen viikoittaisessa historian kohtaamisessa nousi voimakkaasti esille oman, henkilökohtaisen ja suvun historian käsittely päiväkirjan kirjoittamisen, muistoesineiden ja valokuvien kautta.Tytöt käyttävätkin historiaa oman elämänhistoriansa jäsentämisen sekä tradition siirtämisen tarkoituksessa. Nimenomaan heidän kauttaan näyttää elävän vahvana suvun muisteluperinne. Vaikka nuoret kohtaavat kansanomaisia historianesityksiä enemmän kuin julkista historiakulttuuria, heidän historiatietoisuutensa keskittyy jälkimmäiseen. He mieltävät tärkeäksi historiaksi lähinnä kansallisen menneisyyden ja historiakulttuurin julkiset muodot. Kouluopetuksen vaikutus näkyi nuorten vahvana uskona kansalliseen kertomukseen. Nuoret näkevät erityisen tärkeäksi Suomen itsenäisyyden ja Suomen sodat 1939-45 voitettuina itsenäisyyskamppailuina. Mannerheimia arvostettiin Suomen historian tärkeimpänä samaistumiskohteena ja Suomen sotien merkitys kulminoitui suvun jäsenten kohtaloiden ja kansallisen julkisen historian limittymiseen. Historian reseptiossa jatkotutkimuksen aiheita voisivat olla maaseudulla ja kaupungissa elävien nuorten historiakulttuurien erojen sekä erilaisten historiakulttuuristen alaryhmien hahmottaminen. Empiiristä kartoitusta ja vertailevaa tutkimusta voisi tehdä myös eri ikäryhmien historiakulttuurien välillä.

"Kirjailijoiden tapaus" Venäjällä vuonna 1997

In the autumn of 1997, Russian government was faced with media pressure when owners of the TV channels ORT and NTV joined forces against it. This study is based on media sources from October 1997 to December 1997. It shows clearly how the enormous power of the media was able to dictate what happened in Russia. In the mid-1990s Russians started to talk about political technology, which became a commonly used term by professionals, journalists, politicians and intelligence services. As a result of this action, two leading reformers in the government, Anatoliy Chubais and Boris Nemtsov, were dismissed from their highly influential posts as finance and energy ministers respectively, but retained their power as first deputy prime ministers. According to the correspondents, the real reason was to resolve a conflict within the parliament, which had demanded the dismissal of Mr. Chubais. This demand was presented after Chubais had accepted $90,000 as a reward for co-writing a book on privatization. Chubais was considered to be Russia’s “business card” towards the west – the"Authors’ case" (Delo avtorov) was only solved after President Boris Yeltsin took part in the public debate. According to the research, the media owned by powerful businessmen Boris Berezovsky and Vladimir Gusinski, was able to use its own security services to expose sensitive material (Russian term ‘kompromat’), if necessary, concerning any given person. The so-called Authors’ case can be considered as a part of the battle and the tip of the iceberg in arrangements designed to organize the funding of the Russian presidential election campaign in 2000. The reason why this particular incident was so widely covered on television was because several programs aimed to reveal to the public "hidden bribes" that, as they claimed, government officials had received. The political aspect, however, was quite mild, when the concrete issues of possible dismissals of Ministers were debated in the Parliament. Everything was dealt with as a “family matter” inside Kremlin. Yeltsin's "family" consisted of practically anybody from oligarch Berezovsky to Chubais, the father of Russia's privatization policy. Methods of critical history implementation analysis has been used in this research in determining the use of the source material. Literature and interviews have also provided a good base for the study. The study proves that any literature dealing with the subject has not paid enough attention to how the dismissal of Alexander Kazakov, deputy of President’s administration, was linked directly with Gazprom, the state gas monopoly. Kazakov had to leave Gazprom and lose his position as Chubais' ally when the influential ORT television company was deteriorated.

Patterns of release of the secondary conidia of Claviceps africana, the sorghum ergot pathogen in Australia

Trials were conducted in southern Queensland, Australia between March and May 2003, 2004 and 2005 to study patterns of hourly and daily release of the secondary conidia of Claviceps africana and their relationships with weather parameters. Conidia were trapped for at least one hour on most (> 90%) days in 2003 and 2004, but only on 55% of days in 2005. Both the highest daily concentration of conidia, and the highest number of hours per day when conidia were trapped, were recorded 1-3 days after rainfall events. Although the pattern of conidial release was different every day, the highest hourly conidial concentrations occurred between 10.00 hours and 17.00 hours on 73% of all days in the three trials. Hours when conidia were trapped were characterized by higher median values of temperature, windspeed and vapour pressure deficit, lower relative humidity, and leaf wetness values of 0%, than hours when no conidia were recorded. The results indicate that fungicides need to be applied to the highly ergot-susceptible male sterile (A-) lines of sorghum in hybrid seed production blocks and breeders' nurseries as soon as possible after rainfall events to minimize ergot severity.

A high-density consensus map of barley linking DArT markers to SSR, RFLP and STS loci and agricultural traits

Background: Molecular marker technologies are undergoing a transition from largely serial assays measuring DNA fragment sizes to hybridization-based technologies with high multiplexing levels. Diversity Arrays Technology (DArT) is a hybridization-based technology that is increasingly being adopted by barley researchers. There is a need to integrate the information generated by DArT with previous data produced with gel-based marker technologies. The goal of this study was to build a high-density consensus linkage map from the combined datasets of ten populations, most of which were simultaneously typed with DArT and Simple Sequence Repeat (SSR), Restriction Enzyme Fragment Polymorphism (RFLP) and/or Sequence Tagged Site (STS) markers. Results: The consensus map, built using a combination of JoinMap 3.0 software and several purpose-built perl scripts, comprised 2,935 loci (2,085 DArT, 850 other loci) and spanned 1,161 cM. It contained a total of 1,629 'bins' (unique loci), with an average inter-bin distance of 0.7 ± 1.0 cM (median = 0.3 cM). More than 98% of the map could be covered with a single DArT assay. The arrangement of loci was very similar to, and almost as optimal as, the arrangement of loci in component maps built for individual populations. The locus order of a synthetic map derived from merging the component maps without considering the segregation data was only slightly inferior. The distribution of loci along chromosomes indicated centromeric suppression of recombination in all chromosomes except 5H. DArT markers appeared to have a moderate tendency toward hypomethylated, gene-rich regions in distal chromosome areas. On the average, 14 ± 9 DArT loci were identified within 5 cM on either side of SSR, RFLP or STS loci previously identified as linked to agricultural traits. Conclusion: Our barley consensus map provides a framework for transferring genetic information between different marker systems and for deploying DArT markers in molecular breeding schemes. The study also highlights the need for improved software for building consensus maps from high-density segregation data of multiple populations.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

Childhood and adolescent antecedents of work stress and early atherosclerosis

Work stress is after musculoskeletal disorders the second most common work-related health problem in the European Union, affecting 28% of EU employees. Furthermore, a 50% excessive cardiovascular disease risk among employees with work stress is reported. High job demands combined with low job control according to the Job Demands-Job Control model, or high effort combined with low rewards according to Effort-Reward Imbalance model, are likely to produce work stress in the majority of employees. Atherosclerotic wall thickening is a validated marker of an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. This study examined the role of childhood and adolescent factors as antecedents of work stress and early atherosclerosis, and in the relationship between them. The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study, (the CRYF project) started in 1980 when the participants were at the age of three to 18 years. Follow-ups have been conducted every three years until 1992, after that in 1997 and 2001, and the latest is ongoing in 2008. The participants parents reported their socioeconomic position in 1980 and 1983, and their life satisfaction in 1983. Biological risk factors were measured in 1980 and 2001. Type A behaviour was reported in 1986, 1989 and 2001. In the 2001 follow-up when the participants were aged 24 to 39, work stress was assessed from responses to questionnaires on job demands-job control and effort-reward imbalance, and education. Ultrasound measurement of the carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) was used to assess atherosclerosis. There were 755, 746, 1014 and 494 participants in studies I-IV, respectively. The results showed that low parental socioeconomic position and parental life dissatisfaction during childhood and adolescence predicted higher levels of job strain 18 years later, and that education mediated the relationship between parental socioeconomic position and job strain. Childhood and adolescent family factors were not related to the effort-reward imbalance. Parental life satisfaction was associated with high rewards at work among the men, and high parental socioeconomic position was associated with high reward among the women. Among the men, the eagerness-energy component of Type A behaviour across different developmental periods predicted increased CIMT. Among the women, hard-driving component of Type A behaviour predicted decreased CIMT. Low leadership characteristic in adolescence and early adulthood was associated with both high job strain and increased CIMT, and attenuated the relationship between job strain and CIMT to non-significance in men. The current findings add to the literature on the relationship between job strain and health literature in adopting a developmental perspective. The results imply that work stress does not completely originate from work. There are childhood and adolescent environmental and dispositional effects on work stress and CIMT several years later, and these partly seem to operate through educational attainment.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Assessment of permeable covers for odour reduction in piggery effluent ponds. 2. Field-scale trials

The efficacy of supported covers was investigated under field conditions using a series of prototypes deployed on an anaerobic pond treating typical piggery waste. Research focused on identifying effective cover support materials and deployment methods, quantifying odour reduction, and estimating the life expectancy of various permeable cover materials. Over a 10-month period, median odour emission rates were five to eight times lower from supported straw cover surfaces and a non-woven, spun fibre polypropylene weed control material than from the adjacent uncovered pond surface. While the straw covers visually appeared to degrade very rapidly, they continued to reduce odour emissions effectively. The polypropylene cover appeared to offer advantages from the perspectives of cost, reduced maintenance and ease of manufacture.

Atmospheric visibility and PM10 as indicators of new particle formation in an urban environment

It is well-known that new particle formation (NPF) in the atmosphere is inhibited by pre-existing particles in the air that act as condensation sinks to decrease the concentration and, thus, the supersaturation of precursor gases. In this study, we investigate the effects of two parameters - atmospheric visibility, expressed as the particle back-scatter coefficient (BSP), and PM10 particulate mass concentration, on the occurrences of NPF events in an urban environment where the majority of precursor gases originate from motor vehicle and industrial sources. This is the first attempt to derive direct relationships between each of these two parameters and the occurrence of NPF. NPF events were identified from data obtained with a neutral cluster and air ion spectrometer over 245 days within a calendar year. Bayesian logistic regression was used to determine the probability of observing NPF as functions of BSP and PM10. We show that the BSP at 08 h on a given day is a reliable indicator of an NPF event later that day. The posterior median probability of observing an NPF event was greater than 0.5 (95%) when the BSP at 08 h was less than 6.8 Mm-1.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. II. Influence of rainfall patterns

We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.

Sulfur-associated polioencephalomalacia in cattle grazing plants in the Family Brassicaceae

Polioencephalomalacia was diagnosed histologically in cattle from two herds on the Darling Downs, Queensland, during July-August 2007. In the first incident, 8 of 20 18-month-old Aberdeen Angus steers died while grazing pastures comprising 60% Sisymbrium irio (London rocket) and 40% Capsella bursapastoris (shepherd's purse). In the second incident, 2 of 150 mixed-breed adult cattle died, and another was successfully treated with thiamine, while grazing a pasture comprising almost 100% Raphanus raphanistrum (wild radish). Affected cattle were either found dead or comatose or were seen apparently blind and head-pressing in some cases. For both incidents, plant and water assays were used to calculate the total dietary sulfur content in dry matter as 0.62% and 1.01% respectively, both exceeding the recommended 0.5% for cattle eating more than 40% forage. Blood and tissue assays for lead were negative in both cases. No access to thiaminase, concentrated sodium ion or extrinsic hydrogen sulfide sources were identified in either incident. Below-median late summer and autumn rainfall followed by above-median unseasonal winter rainfall promoted weed growth at the expense of wholesome pasture species before these incidents.

Defining and predicting the 'break of the season' for north-east Queensland grazing areas

For pasture growth in the semi-arid tropics of north-east Australia, where up to 80% of annual rainfall occurs between December and March, the timing and distribution of rainfall events is often more important than the total amount. In particular, the timing of the 'green break of the season' (GBOS) at the end of the dry season, when new pasture growth becomes available as forage and a live-weight gain is measured in cattle, affects several important management decisions that prevent overgrazing and pasture degradation. Currently, beef producers in the region use a GBOS rule based on rainfall (e. g. 40mm of rain over three days by 1 December) to define the event and make their management decisions. A survey of 16 beef producers in north-east Queensland shows three quarters of respondents use a rainfall amount that occurs in only half or less than half of all years at their location. In addition, only half the producers expect the GBOS to occur within two weeks of the median date calculated by the CSIRO plant growth days model GRIM. This result suggests that in the producer rules, either the rainfall quantity or the period of time over which the rain is expected, is unrealistic. Despite only 37% of beef producers indicating that they use a southern oscillation index (SOI) forecast in their decisions, cross validated LEPS (linear error in probability space) analyses showed both the average 3 month July-September SOI and the 2 month August-September SOI have significant forecast skill in predicting the probability of both the amount of wet season rainfall and the timing of the GBOS. The communication and implementation of a rigorous and realistic definition of the GBOS, and the likely impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the region are discussed in the context of the sustainable management of northern Australian rangelands.