A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival using a multistate model for the sojourn times

In clinical trials, it may be of interest taking into account physical and emotional well-being in addition to survival when comparing treatments. Quality-adjusted survival time has the advantage of incorporating information about both survival time and quality-of-life. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models for the sojourn times in health states. Semiparametric and parametric (with exponential distribution) approaches are considered. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to compute bias and variance of the estimator. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the apparent lack of preferential site occupancy and electrooxidation of CO adsorbed at low coverage onto stepped platinum surfaces

We report time evolution studies of low coverage CO adsorption (surface hydrogen site blocking < 40%) and oxidative stripping on stepped Pt(776) and Pt(554) surfaces. It was observed that there is no preferential site occupancy for CO adsorption on step or terrace. It is proposed that CO adsorption onto these surfaces is a random process, and after CO adsorption there is no appreciable shift from CO-(111) to CO-(110) sites. This implies that after adsorption, CO molecules either have a very long residence time, or that the diffusion coefficient is much lower than previously thought. After CO electrooxidation the sites released included both terrace (111) and step (110) orientations. For surface hydrogen site blocking > 40%, the lateral interactions might play a role in the preferential CO site occupancy. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Output convergence in Mercosur: multivariate time series evidence

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence on output convergence among the Mercosur countries and associates, using multivariate time-series tests. The methodology is based on a combination of tests and estimation procedures, both univariate and multivariate, applied to the differences in per capita real income. We use the definitions of time-series convergence proposed by Bernard & Durlauf and apply unit root and tests proposed by Abuaf & Jorion and Taylor & Sarno. In this same multivariate context, the Flôres, Preumont & Szafarz and Breuer, MbNown & Wallace tests, which allow for the existence of correlations across the series without imposing a common speed of mean reversion, identify the countries that convergence. Concerning the empirical results, there is evidence of long-run convergence or, at least, catching up, for the smaller countries, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay, towards Brazil and, to some extent, Argentina. In contrast, the evidence on convergence for the larger countries is weaker, as they have followed different (or rather opposing) macroeconomic policy strategies. Thus the future of the whole area will critically depend on the ability of Brazil, Argentina and Chile to find some scope for more cooperative policy actions.

Franchisor-franchisee relationship and performance: influence of personality traits, entrepreneurial drive, and time of relationship

A literatura em franchising tem virtualmente ignorado o papel de aspectos psicologicos nos resultados interorganizacionais das empresas, a despeito de sua influencia nos resultados das organizações e da qualidade de relacionamento. Este estudo, portanto, tem por objetivo analisar a influência da personalidade e do potencial empreendedor na qualidade de relacionamento e desempenho financeiro na relação franqueador-franqueado, ao longo do tempo, sob a perspectiva dos franqueados. Este estudo analisa também o papel do tempo de relacionamento sobre a qualidade de relacionamento e o desempenho financeiro. Foi utilizado neste estudo um questionário de auto-preenchimento, enviado por e-mail, com o objetivo de recolher dados de uma amostra de 342 franqueados de 3 redes de franquias. A personalidade foi mensurada por meio dos “Cinco Grandes” traços de personalidade (escalas IPIP-B5): extroversão, agradabilidade, consciencia, estabilidade emocional e imaginação. O potencial empreendedor foi mensurado por meio do índice CEI (Carland Entrepreneurship Index). A qualidade do relacionamento foi estruturada como um constructo de segunda ordem, composto por 23 itens (incorporando confiança, comprometimento e satisfação com o relacionamento), e o desempenho financeiro foi representado por meio de uma escala de mensuração de crescimento de vendas e de rentabilidade. O tempo de relacionamento foi medido por meio dos meses de relacionamento entre franqueado e franqueador. As hipoteses foram testadas por meio de modelagem por equações estruturais, com a utilização do método de mínimos quadrados parciais (PLS), análise de regressão e análise de médias. Três das cinco dimensões da personalidade apresentaram o efeito previsto sobre as variáveis qualidade do relacionamento – agradabilidade (positivamente), estabilidade emocional (positivamente), e imaginação (positivamente). O desempenho financeiro foi influenciado, como previsto por consciência (positivamente), estabilidade emocional (positivamente), e imaginação (positivamente). Como esperado, a qualidade do relacionamento apresentou efeito positivo e significativo em relação ao desempenho financeiro. O potencial empreendedor apresentou o efeito positivo previsto apenas sobre desempenho. O tempo de relacionamento teve o efeito positivo esperado sobre o relacionamento franqueador-franqueado, em relação à qualidade do relacionamento e o desempenho financeiro, mas as diferenças entre as fases de relacionamento propostas foram apenas parcialmente confirmadas, uma vez que em somente duas fases (rotina e estabilização) a análise de médias mostrou diferenças significativas. Os resultados indicam que a personalidade influencia a qualidade de relacionamento e o desempenho, mas a meneira pela qual isso ocorre é diferente no contexto brasileiro, onde esta pesquisa foi realizada, dos achados da pesquisa conduzida na Austrália, sugerindo que fatores como cultura e estabilidade de mercado podem ter influencia sobre a relação entre traços de personalidade e qualidade de relacionamento, e traços de personalidade e desempenho financeiro. O potencial empreendedor parece influenciar positivamente o desempenho do franqueado, mas a sua influência não foi significativa em relação à qualidade do relacionamento. Os resultados também indicam a importância do tempo no desenvolvimento da qualidade de relacionamento e desempenho. Além disso, os relacionamentos de longo prazo estão relacionados a melhores avaliações de qualidade de relacionamento e desempenho financeiros por parte dos franqueados. As limitações do trabalho e sugestões para estudos futuros também são discutidos.

Spontaneous Interblink Time Distributions in Patients with Graves' Orbitopathy and Normal Subjects

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Real time B-mode ultrasound in pacas pregnancy (Agouti paca, Linnaeus, 1766)

O objetivo deste estudo foi estabelecer o tempo de prenhez da paca por meio de ultra-sonografia. Nove pacas prenhes foram periodicamente acompanhadas com um transdutor eletrônico setorial bi-frequencial de 5,0 e 7,5 MHz, em modo B, desde a detecção ultra-sonográfica da vesícula embrionária ou do feto até o nascimento dos filhotes. Os animais foram colocados em uma gaiola de ferro de prensagem lateral e permaneceram em posição quadrupedal durante as sessões. Um pano escuro foi usado para cobrir a gaiola e frutas foram oferecidas durante o exame ultra-sonográfico para evitar reações agressivas. Quanto mais precocemente ocorreu a detecção de prenhez, maior foi o período de acompanhamento ultra-sonográfico até o nascimento dos filhotes. Apenas um filhote nasceu por parto, com 796,5 ± 74,36 gramas (valor médio ± desvio padrão da amostra) e 33,46 ± 0,60 centímetros (valor médio ± desvio padrão da amostra) de comprimento (entre a borda rostral do focinho e a extremidade distal da cauda). O período de prenhez da paca abrange 135 a 139 dias.

Fertility Rates Following Fixed-Time Artificial Insemination in Dairy Heifers in a Practical Progesterone-Based Protocol

Background: In bovines, more efficient management practices are important for maximizing profitability. In order to increase the pregnancy rates in artificial insemination (AI) programs, several hormonal protocols were developed to synchronize the follicular wave and the moment of ovulation in beef and dairy cattle. In dairy cattle, detection of estrus can be difficult due to a number of factors including the incidence of silent estrus. Hormonal treatments designed to control both luteal and follicular function has permitting efficient synchronizations of time of ovulation. Thus, the AI can be performed in a large number of animals on a fixed schedule without the need for detection of estrus. Using these management techniques, the fixed-time artificial insemination (TAI) can overcome the problem of accurate estrus detection and help in reducing the incidence of repeat breeding. In addition, with TAI in cattle operations, it is possible to facilitate management practices and commercialization, and to reduce the time and semen wasting with animals inseminated at incorrect times. The investigation of practical and efficient TAI protocols is important for reducing the labor and animal handling of TAI in dairy cattle, as well as for increasing the profitability of the cattle management system. This study was carried out in order to investigate the effectiveness of TAI in dairy heifers treated with a practical progesterone-based protocol.Materials, Methods & Results: This experiment was conducted at the university farm located in southwestern Brazil, during May 2009. Thirty-nine cycling crossbred dairy heifers were employed in this study. All animals received a single intramuscular injection of estradiol benzoate and intravaginal progesterone releasing device in a random stage of the estrous cycle (Day 0). on day 7 the animals were treated with PGF2a analogue and on day 9 the device was removed. Forty-eight hours after the device removal (day 11) a synthetic analogue of GnRH was administered and the animals were fixed-time artificially inseminated at the time of GnRH injection. The inseminations were performed using four different batches from the same Holstein bull. Among the heifers that were synchronized (87.2%), 30.8% ovulated until 24 h after TAI and 56.4% ovulated between 24 and 32 h after TAI. The conception rate was 61.5%. No effects of ovulation time in conception rates were detected. The conception rate from heifers that ovulated until 24 h after TAI was 58.3% and from heifers that ovulated between 24 and 32 h after TAI was 77.3%. The mean of ovulatory follicle in heifers that ovulated until 24 h was 14.3 mm and in heifers that ovulated between 24 and 32 h was 11.9 mm.Discussion: Taking together, the findings of the present study, along with those of others, emphasize the concept that development of practical methods for TAI offers significant advantages to dairy producers if conception rates are close or greater to those obtained after breeding at detected estrus. Thus, the results of the present study reinforce the possibility of making dairy cattle production more cost-effective using TAI. In conclusion, with the progesterone-based TAI protocol of the present experiment all synchronized animals ovulated up to 32 h after GnRH+TAI and no effects of ovulation time related to conception rate was detected. The exogenous control of luteal and follicular development facilitated the reproductive management and animal handling. Also, inseminating the heifers at the moment of GnRH injection in a progesterone-based TAI protocol is a practical strategy and provided satisfactory results regarding ovulation and conception rates in dairy heifers.

Gastro-intestinal transit time in South American deer

The study of diet and physiological peculiarities of the digestive system of neotropical deer is not well known and the literature shows inconsistencies. To better understand the digestive system of these mammals the difference in the gastro-intestinal transit time of four species of neotropical deer (Mazama americana, Mazama gouazoubira, Mazama nana, Blastocerus dichotomus), kept ill captivity, was evaluated. Four plants (Neonotonia wightii, Morus albans, Medicago sativa, Leucaena leucocephala) were utilized and two variables were measured, mean time of the beginning of the elimination (BE) and mean time of permanence (TP). The results obtained for BE indicated similarity among the deer species, with significant differences between M. gouazoubira (mean = 13.62 hr) and M. Americana (mean = 19.25 hr). For the plants, the BE was faster with N. wightii and L. leucocephala, and slower for M. sativa. The TP results for B. dichotomus showed longer time when compared to the other species, whereas M. gouazoubira had a lower permanence. Overall, N. wightii had the highest retention time in the digestive tract of all the deer species studied. Associated with this observation, N. wightii had the highest quantity of plant fiber of the plants tested. In a similar fashion M. sativa showed the lowest TP in the digestive tract of the deer and had the lowest quantity of acid detergent fiber. The data from this study showed that, within species, the shape of the excretion curve of the plants was similar when the animals consumed N. wightii or M. sativa. Blastocerus dichotomus and M. gouazoubira had the highest and the lowest gastro-intestinal transit time, respectively. This suggests that these species characterize different abilities to digest high fiber food, and consequently, represent the two extremities in the morphophysiological adaptation within the deer species evaluated. This information is vital because it is important to know the digestive physiology to define the diet of captive animals, particularly regarding the quantity and quality of fiber. Zoo Biol 25:47-57, 2006. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Indoor Air quality related to occupancy at an air-conditioned public building

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mean motion resonances and the stability of a circumbinary disk in a triple stellar system

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Hip fracture in the elderly: does counting time from fracture to surgery or from hospital admission to surgery matter when studying in-hospital mortality?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic and environmental parameters for racing time at different distances in Brazilian Thoroughbreds

The aim of the present study was to investigate genetic parameters for racing time in Thoroughbred horses racing at distances between 1000 and 1600 m subdivided into 100-m intervals. The data provided by TURFETOTAL Ltda comprised races that occurred in the Gavea and Cidade Jardim race tracks over a period of 11 years (1992-2002) and consisted of 32 145 races and 238 890 time records. The variance components necessary to obtain the heritability and repeatability estimates of the traits studied were estimated with the MTDFREML program, and animal age at race (3 years old or younger, 4, 5 and older than 5 years), sex (male and female), number of races (1-32 145), and postposition at start (1-11) as fixed effects, and animal and permanent environmental random effects were included in a one-trait animal model. Males were significantly superior to females at all distances. Excluding the 1100 m distance, animals 4 years of age were significantly faster than the mean of the other ages for all distances analysed. Horses older than 5 years showed a significantly lower performance than the mean of the other ages for all distances analysed, except for the 1100 m. Postpositions one and two did not differ significantly from one another for any of the distances analysed. These two inner positions both together varied from the other positions depending on race length. The components of additive genetic and permanent environmental variance varied in a similar way, tending to decrease with increasing racing distance, and the other temporary environmental variance almost doubled from 1000 to 1600 m. As was the case for the additive genetic and environmental variances, heritability and repeatability estimates tended to decrease with increasing distance, indicating that selection based on racing time will be less successful when the racing distance increases.

Strategies to improve fertility in postpartum multiparous Bos indicus cows submitted to a fixed-time insemination protocol with gonadotropin-releasing hormone and prostaglandin F-2 alpha

In Exp. 1, we evaluated the effects of 2 lengths of progesterone exposure [CIDR (controlled intravaginal drug release); 7 vs. 14 d] before a modified CO-Synch protocol [50.0-mu g injection of GnRH 6.5 d before a 25.0-mg injection of PGF(2 alpha) followed by another injection of GnRH and fixed-time AI (TAI) 2 d after PGF(2 alpha)], with or without temporary weaning (TW) before GnRH treatments, on fertility of suckled multiparous Bos indicus cows (n = 283) and on calf performance. Timed AI pregnancy rates for cows receiving 7 d CIDR + TW, 7 d CIDR, 14 d CIDR + TW, and 14 d CIDR were 53, 47, 46, and 41%, respectively (P > 0.10). Calves submitted to two 48-h TW 6 d apart had decreased mean BW at 240 d (187.9 +/- 2.7 vs. 195.5 +/- 2.7 kg; P < 0.05), but BW at 420 d was not affected by TW (240.1 +/- 5.1 kg). In Exp. 2, we evaluated the effect of no treatment and treatment with or without a CIDR insert between GnRH and PGF(2 alpha) treatments of a modified CO-Synch protocol on pregnancy rate to TAI, and throughout a 90-d breeding season in suckled multiparous Bos indicus cows (n = 453). The inclusion of a CIDR between first GnRH and PGF(2 alpha) treatments of a modified CO-Synch protocol did not improve pregnancy rate (29 and 33% for cows receiving CO-Synch + CIDR and CO-Synch protocol, respectively), and cycling cows had poorer TAI pregnancy rates than anestrous cows treated with either synchronization protocol (21.7 vs. 40.7%; P < 0.05). However, regardless of treatment with CIDR, cows submitted to TAI protocol had greater (P < 0.05) pregnancy rates at 30 (54.8 vs. 11.2%), 60 (72.1 vs. 38.8%), and 90 d (82.0 vs. 57.9%) of breeding season than untreated cows.

Protection of short-time enamel erosion by different tetrafluoride compounds

objective: This in vitro study aimed to analyse the protective effect of differently concentrated titanium (TiF4), zirconium (ZrF4) and hafnium (HfF4) tetrafluoride on enamel erosion. Methods: Polished enamel surfaces of 36 bovine crowns were covered with tape leaving 4 enamel windows each 3 mm in diameter exposed. The crowns were randomly assigned to six groups (each n = 6) and pretreated with 4% TiF4, 10% TiF4, 4% ZrF4, 10% ZrF4, 4% HfF4 or 10% HfF4 for 4 min (first window), 10 min (second window) or 15 min (third window). The fourth window of each crown was not pretreated and served as control. Erosion was performed stepwise with 1% HCl (pH 2) in five consecutive intervals of each 15 s (total 75 s). Enamel dissolution was quantified by colorimetric determination of phosphate release into the acid. For each tooth, cumulative phosphate loss of enamel pretreated with one of the tetrafluoride compounds was calculated as percentage of the respective control and statistically analysed using two-way ANOVA.Results: Enamel erosion was significantly reduced by TiF4, ZrF4 and HfF4 application. Cumulative phosphate loss (mean % of control, 75 s erosion) after 4-15 min application was significantly lower for 4% ZrF4 (7-11%), 10% ZrF4 (2-6%), 4% HfF4 (11-9%) and 10% HfF4 (12-16%) compared to 4% TiF4 (42-27%) and 10% TiF4 (54-33%). Only for 4% and 10% TiF4, phosphate loss decreased with increasing duration of application, but also increased with increasing acid intervals.Conclusion: TiF4, ZrF4 and HfF4 might protect enamel against short-time erosion, but protection was more enhanced by ZrF4 and HfF4 compared to TiF4 application overtime. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.