Climate determinism revisited: multiple equilibria in a complex climate model

Multiple equilibria in a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice general circulation model (GCM) of an aquaplanet with many degrees of freedom are studied. Three different stable states are found for exactly the same set of parameters and external forcings: a cold state in which a polar sea ice cap extends into the midlatitudes; a warm state, which is ice free; and a completely sea ice–covered “snowball” state. Although low-order energy balance models of the climate are known to exhibit intransitivity (i.e., more than one climate state for a given set of governing equations), the results reported here are the first to demonstrate that this is a property of a complex coupled climate model with a consistent set of equations representing the 3D dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere. The coupled model notably includes atmospheric synoptic systems, large-scale circulation of the ocean, a fully active hydrological cycle, sea ice, and a seasonal cycle. There are no flux adjustments, with the system being solely forced by incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. It is demonstrated that the multiple equilibria owe their existence to the presence of meridional structure in ocean heat transport: namely, a large heat transport out of the tropics and a relatively weak high-latitude transport. The associated large midlatitude convergence of ocean heat transport leads to a preferred latitude at which the sea ice edge can rest. The mechanism operates in two very different ocean circulation regimes, suggesting that the stabilization of the large ice cap could be a robust feature of the climate system. Finally, the role of ocean heat convergence in permitting multiple equilibria is further explored in simpler models: an atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean and an energy balance model

The surface urban energy and water balance scheme (SUEWS): evaluation in Los Angeles and Vancouver

An urban energy and water balance model is presented which uses a small number of commonly measured meteorological variables and information about the surface cover. Rates of evaporation-interception for a single layer with multiple surface types (paved, buildings, coniferous trees and/or shrubs, deciduous trees and/or shrubs, irrigated grass, non-irrigated grass and water) are calculated. Below each surface type, except water, there is a single soil layer. At each time step the moisture state of each surface is calculated. Horizontal water movements at the surface and in the soil are incorporated. Particular attention is given to the surface conductance used to model evaporation and its parameters. The model is tested against direct flux measurements carried out over a number of years in Vancouver, Canada and Los Angeles, USA. At all measurement sites the model is able to simulate the net all-wave radiation and turbulent sensible and latent heat well (RMSE = 25–47 W m−2, 30–64 and 20–56 W m−2, respectively). The model reproduces the diurnal cycle of the turbulent fluxes but typically underestimates latent heat flux and overestimates sensible heat flux in the day time. The model tracks measured surface wetness and simulates the variations in soil moisture content. It is able to respond correctly to short-term events as well as annual changes. The largest uncertainty relates to the determination of surface conductance. The model has the potential be used for multiple applications; for example, to predict effects of regulation on urban water use, landscaping and planning scenarios, or to assess climate mitigation strategies.

Influence of mass diffusion in sea ice dynamical models

The mixing of floes of different thickness caused by repeated deformation of the ice cover is modeled as diffusion, and the mass balance equation for sea ice accounting for mass diffusion is developed. The effect of deformational diffusion on the ice thickness balance is shown to reach 1% of the divergence effect, which describes ridging and lead formation. This means that with the same accuracy the mass balance equation can be written in terms of mean velocity rather than mean mass-weighted velocity, which one should correctly use for a multicomponent fluid such as sea ice with components identified by floe thickness. Mixing (diffusion) of sea ice also occurs because of turbulent variations in wind and ocean drags that are unresolved in models. Estimates of the importance of turbulent mass diffusion on the dynamic redistribution of ice thickness are determined using empirical data for the turbulent diffusivity. For long-time-scale prediction (≫5 days), where unresolved atmospheric motion may have a length scale on the order of the Arctic basin and the time scale is larger than the synoptic time scale of atmospheric events, turbulent mass diffusion can exceed 10% of the divergence effect. However, for short-time-scale prediction, for example, 5 days, the unresolved scales are on the order of 100 km, and turbulent diffusion is about 0.1% of the divergence effect. Because inertial effects are small in the dynamics of the sea ice pack, diffusive momentum transfer can be disregarded.

The influence of ocean flow on newly forming sea ice

The heat and mass balance of the Arctic Ocean is very sensitive to the growth and decay of sea ice and the interaction between the heat and salt fields in the oceanic boundary layer. The hydraulic roughness of sea ice controls the detailed nature of turbulent fluxes in the boundary layer and hence is an important ingredient in model parameterizations. We describe a novel mechanism for the generation of corrugations of the sea ice–ocean interface, present a mathematical analysis elucidating the mechanism, and present numerical calculations for geophysically relevant conditions. The mechanism relies on brine flows developing in the sea ice due to Bernoulli suction by flow of ocean past the interface. For oceanic shears at the ice interface of 0.2 s−1, we expect the corrugations to form with a wavelength dependent upon the permeability structure of the sea ice which is described herein. The mechanism should be particularly important during sea ice formation in wind-maintained coastal polynyas and in leads. This paper applies our earlier analyses of the fundamental instability to field conditions and extends it to take account of the anisotropic and heterogeneous permeability of sea ice.

Energy-balance mechanisms underlying consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

Climate simulations show consistent large-scale temperature responses including amplified land–ocean contrast, high-latitude/low-latitude contrast, and changes in seasonality in response to year-round forcing, in both warm and cold climates, and these responses are proportional and nearly linear across multiple climate states. We examine the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms controls these large-scale responses using a simple energy-balance model to decompose the temperature changes shown in multiple lgm and abrupt4 × CO 2 simulations from the CMIP5 archive. Changes in the individual components of the energy balance are broadly consistent across the models. Although several components are involved in the overall temperature responses, surface downward clear-sky longwave radiation is the most important component driving land–ocean contrast and high-latitude amplification in both warm and cold climates. Surface albedo also plays a significant role in promoting high-latitude amplification in both climates and in intensifying the land–ocean contrast in the warm climate case. The change in seasonality is a consequence of the changes in land–ocean and high-latitude/low-latitude contrasts rather than an independent temperature response. This is borne out by the fact that no single component stands out as being the major cause of the change in seasonality, and the relative importance of individual components is different in cold and warm climates.

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr and their impact on ocean δ 13C

A new global synthesis and biomization of long (>40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented, and used with simulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Global modelled (BIOME4) biome distributions over time generally agree well with those inferred from pollen data. The two climate models show good agreement in global net primary productivity (NPP). NPP is strongly influenced by atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations through CO2 fertilization. The combined effects of modelled changes in vegetation and (via a simple model) soil carbon result in a global terrestrial carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum that is 210–470 Pg C less than in pre-industrial time. Without the contribution from exposed glacial continental shelves the reduction would be larger, 330–960 Pg C. Other intervals of low terrestrial carbon storage include stadial intervals at 108 and 85 ka BP, and between 60 and 65 ka BP during Marine Isotope Stage 4. Terrestrial carbon storage, determined by the balance of global NPP and decomposition, influences the stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of seawater because terrestrial organic carbon is depleted in 13C. Using a simple carbon-isotope mass balance equation we find agreement in trends between modelled ocean δ13C based on modelled land carbon storage, and palaeo-archives of ocean δ13C, confirming that terrestrial carbon storage variations may be important drivers of ocean δ13C changes.

Simulação computacional do escoamento em bombas de cavidades progressivas

The use of Progressing Cavity Pumps (PCPs) in artificial lift applications in low deep wells is becoming more common in the oil industry, mainly, due to its ability to pump heavy oils, produce oil with large concentrations of sand, besides present high efficiency when compared to other artificial lift methods. Although this system has been widely used as an oil lift method, few investigations about its hydrodynamic behavior are presented, either experimental or numeric. Therefore, in order to increase the knowledge about the BCP operational behavior, this work presents a novel computational model for the 3-D transient flow in progressing cavity pumps, which includes the relative motion between rotor and stator, using an element based finite volume method. The model developed is able to accurately predict the volumetric efficiency and viscous looses as well as to provide detailed information of pressure and velocity fields inside the pump. In order to predict PCP performance for low viscosity fluids, advanced turbulence models were used to treat, accurately, the turbulent effects on the flow, which allowed for obtaining results consistent with experimental values encountered in literature. In addition to the 3D computational model, a simplified model was developed, based on mass balance within cavities and on simplification on the momentum equations for fully developed flow along the seal region between cavities. This simplified model, based on previous approaches encountered in literature, has the ability to predict flow rate for a given differential pressure, presenting exactness and low CPU requirements, becoming an engineering tool for quick calculations and providing adequate results, almost real-time time. The results presented in this work consider a rigid stator PCP and the models developed were validated against experimental results from open literature. The results for the 3-D model showed to be sensitive to the mesh size, such that a numerical mesh refinement study is also presented. Regarding to the simplified model, some improvements were introduced in the calculation of the friction factor, allowing the application fo the model for low viscosity fluids, which was unsuccessful in models using similar approaches, presented in previous works

Estudo numérico de escoamento turbulento em padrão anular gás-líquido em dutos verticais

Multiphase flows in ducts can adopt several morphologies depending on the mass fluxes and the fluids properties. Annular flow is one of the most frequently encountered flow patterns in industrial applications. For gas liquid systems, it consists of a liquid film flowing adjacent to the wall and a gas core flowing in the center of the duct. This work presents a numerical study of this flow pattern in gas liquid systems in vertical ducts. For this, a solution algorithm was developed and implemented in FORTRAN 90 to numerically solve the governing transport equations. The mass and momentum conservation equations are solved simultaneously from the wall to the center of the duct, using the Finite Volumes Technique. Momentum conservation in the gas liquid interface is enforced using an equivalent effective viscosity, which also allows for the solution of both velocity fields in a single system of equations. In this way, the velocity distributions across the gas core and the liquid film are obtained iteratively, together with the global pressure gradient and the liquid film thickness. Convergence criteria are based upon satisfaction of mass balance within the liquid film and the gas core. For system closure, two different approaches are presented for the calculation of the radial turbulent viscosity distribution within the liquid film and the gas core. The first one combines a k- Ɛ one-equation model and a low Reynolds k-Ɛ model. The second one uses a low Reynolds k- Ɛ model to compute the eddy viscosity profile from the center of the duct right to the wall. Appropriate interfacial values for k e Ɛ are proposed, based on concepts and ideas previously used, with success, in stratified gas liquid flow. The proposed approaches are compared with an algebraic model found in the literature, specifically devised for annular gas liquid flow, using available experimental results. This also serves as a validation of the solution algorithm

Conversão catalítica de clorometano em hidrocarbonetos

Amorphous silica-alumina and modified by incipient impregnation of iron, nickel, zinc and chromium were synthetized in oxide and metal state and evaluated as catalysts for the chloromethane conversion reaction. With known techniques their textural properties were determined and dynamics techniques in programmed temperature were used to find the acid properties of the materials. A thermodynamic model was used to determine the adsorption and desorption capacity of chloromethane. Two types of reactions were studied. Firstly the chloromethane was catalytically converted to hydrocarbons (T = 300 450 oC e m = 300 mg) in a fixed bed reactor with controlled pressure and flow. Secondly the deactivation of the unmodified support was studied (at 300 °C and m=250 g) in a micro-adsorver provided of gravimetric monitoring. The metal content (2,5%) and the chloromethane percent of the reagent mixture (10% chloromethane in nitrogen) were fixed for all the tests. From the results the chloromethane conversion and selectivity of the gaseous products (H2, CH4, C3 and C4) were determined as well as the energy of desorption (75,2 KJ/mol for Ni/Al2O3-SiO2 to 684 KJ/mol for the Zn/Al2O3-SiO2 catalyst) considering the desorption rate as a temperature function. The presence of a metal on the support showed to have an important significance in the chloromethane condensation. The oxide class catalyst presented a better performance toward the production of hydrocarbons. Especial mention to the ZnO/Al2O3-SiO2 that, in a gas phase basis, produced C3 83 % max. and C4 63% max., respectively, in the temperature of 450 oC and 20 hours on stream. Hydrogen was produced exclusively in the FeO/Al2O3-SiO2 catalysts (15 % max., T = 550 oC and 5,6 h on stream) and Ni/SiO2-Al2O3 (75 % max., T = 400 oC and 21,6 h on stream). All the catalysts produced methane (10 à 92 %), except for Ni/Al2O3-SiO2 and CrO/Al2O3-SiO2. In the deactivation study two models were proposed: The parallel model, where the product production competes with coke formation; and the sequential model, where the coke formation competes with the product desorption dessorption step. With the mass balance equations and the mechanism proposed six parameters were determined. Two kinetic parameters: the hydrocarbon formation constant, 8,46 10-4 min-1, the coke formation, 1,46 10-1 min-1; three thermodynamic constants (the global, 0,003, the chloromethane adsorption 0,417 bar-1, the hydrocarbon adsorption 2,266 bar-1), and the activity exponent of the coke formation (1,516). The model was reasonable well fitted and presented a satisfactory behavior in relation with the proposed mechanism

Gauged thirring model in the Heisenberg picture

We consider the (2+1)-dimensional gauged Thirring model in the Heisenberg picture. In this context we evaluate the vacuum polarization tensor as well as the corrected gauge boson propagator and address the issues of generation of mass and dynamics for the gauge boson (in the limits of QED 3 and Thirring model as a gauge theory, respectively) due to the radiative corrections.

A influência do Arco do Desmatamento sobre o ciclo hidrológico da Amazônia

Este trabalho buscou quantificar algumas alterações no ciclo hidrológico da Amazônia propiciadas pelo desmatamento da região, principalmente devido à faixa conhecida como "Arco do Desmatamento". Neste sentido, foram realizados experimentos numéricos utilizando o modelo BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) tendo o submodelo de vegetação dinâmica GEMTM (General Energy and Mass Transport Model) a ele acoplado. Foram investigados os impactos causados pelo Arco do Desmatamento atual em relação à floresta intacta, bem como as futuras modificações, causados pelo avanço do desmatamento até o ano de 2050. Como condições de contorno na superfície para o modelo BRAMS, foram usados cenários oriundos de modelos empíricos de desmatamento para os anos de 2002 e 2050. Os resultados mostraram que o avanço do Arco do Desmatamento até 2050 tem uma complexa relação com as variáveis analisadas. Por exemplo, a precipitação apresentou distribuição espacial heterogênea, com áreas de anomalias positivas e negativas que se mostraram coerentes com as anomalias de outras variáveis, como a evapotranspiração e a divergência de umidade. Também foram encontradas algumas áreas que evidenciaram as possíveis influências dos grandes rios e topografia da região sobre essa precipitação. Os balanços de radiação e energia também foram afetados pelo desmatamento, sendo que grande parte das alterações é devido à mudança do albedo da superfície, a qual ocorre com a substituição da floresta pela pastagem. Quanto às alterações propiciadas pelo Arco do Desmatamento atual em relação à floresta intacta, foi observado que todas as variáveis foram afetadas, entretanto a maioria dos impactos ainda é localizada sobre a área mais afetada pelo desmatamento, diferentemente dos resultados encontrados para o cenário de 2050, onde as modificações já se dão a nível regional.

Projeto de um controlador Fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno para uma estação de tratamento de esgoto por lodos ativados

Este trabalho propõe o projeto de um controlador Fuzzy do tipo Takagi-Sugeno em uma estação de tratamento de esgoto por lodos ativados. Este tipo de tratamento ocorre na presença de oxigênio, pois microorganismos aeróbios presentes no licor misto irão proporcionar a remoção tanto da matéria carbonácea quanto nutrientes formados por compostos à base de nitrogênio. O controlador atua via mecanismo de aeração e foi projetado para interpolar os ganhos proporcionais e integrativos de três controladores fixos locais que, por sua vez, foram projetados a partir da linearização de um modelo contínuo de balanço de massa de oxigênio. O controlador auxiliará manter a concentração de oxigênio dissolvido desejável na faixa de operação do processo para que ocorra a nitrificação, reação química de oxiredução que transforma amônio em nitrito, que é fundamental para o sucesso do processo, e poderá também economizar energia elétrica utilizada pelo mecanismo de aeração. Os ensaios foram realizados via simulação computacional em quatro cenários idealizados comparando o desempenho do controlador fuzzy e o desempenho de um controlador fixo projetado em um ponto de operação diferente do qual se utilizou como valor de referência na planta. Ao aplicar um degrau no valor de referência estabelecido no cenário de análise, observou-se o tempo de subida, o tempo de acomodação e o erro em regime. Após os ensaios, observou-se que o desempenho do controlador fuzzy nos quesitos tempo de subida e tempo de acomodação em relação ao controlador fixo foi melhor, enquanto nos quesitos sobressinal e erro em regime foi semelhante. Após as análises, concluiu-se que a estratégia de controle escolhida neste trabalho é viável, pois de acordo com o valor auferido de oxigênio dissolvido na entrada da planta, o controlador fuzzy irá interpolar os ganhos proporcionais e integrativos de um controlador fixo projetado na vizinhança deste valor e assim, atuar de forma bastante satisfatória.

Simulação numérica da gaseificação de biomassa em leito fixo

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a potencialidade das sementes de açaí rejeitadas após beneficiamento em Belém – Pará, a fim de ser usada como fonte de biomassa para a produção de energia por gaseificação. Resultados da análise elementar obtidas no LABCAT – UNB em base seca foram obtidas com percentuais de Carbono, 46,06 %, Hidrogênio 6,01 % Oxigênio 43,37 %, Nitrogênio 4,33 % e Enxofre 0,08%. Tais valores entre outros parâmetros obtidos em estudo experimental realizados por Santos 2011 e Cruz, 2010, foram utilizados para realizar uma simulação numérica do processo de gaseificação por meio de um código FORTRAN zero dimensional desenvolvido especificamente para esta finalidade. Variações da influência da razão de equivalência e teor de umidade nas concentrações de CO, H2 e CH4 foram comparados a resultados experimentais. Um modelo transiente unidimensional também foi analisado. Utilizando a aplicação de um mecanismo de pirólise de dois passos onde o alcatrão primário (ou oxigenados) são inicialmente formados e então craqueados em alcatrão secundário (ou hidrocarbonetos) e outros gases combustíveis. Assim se revela a complexidade dos processos físicos e químicos que ocorrem no reator pelo uso do balanço de energia e massa e com informações das taxas de reação das reções químicas e os processos de transporte físicos. O modelo computacional é capaz de prever o perfil da composição de gases, temperatura, alcatrão primário e secundário ao longo do eixo longitudinal do gaseificador. Foram obtidos resultados para simulações realizadas nos dois modelos e posteriormente analisado tal comportamento em comparação ao resultado experimental obtidos por Santos (2011).

Reading model to estimate optimum economic intakes of amino acids for poultry

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Ensemble wind forecasting based on the HARMONIE model and adaptive finite elements in complex orography

[EN]Ensemble forecasting is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in. The wind field forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind profile using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie, a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model used experimentally at AEMET with promising results. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms. The mesh is generated using the meccano method and adapted to the geometry…