Complexity of Inferences in Polytree-shaped Semi-Qualitative Probabilistic Networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the Bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that inferences can be performed in linear time if there is a single observed node, which is a relevant practical case. Because our proof is constructive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynomial-time algorithm for SQPNs. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Evangelicalism and Conflict in Northern Ireland

This book explores the role of evangelicalism in the conflict in Northern Ireland and discusses how it may contribute to a peaceful transition. Ganiel analyses the 'traditional' evangelicals who are associated with the Rev. Ian Paisley, as well as a new breed of 'mediating' evangelicals who have broken with the traditions of the past. Comparing evangelical politics in Northern Ireland to the US and Canada, this book sheds light on future directions for Northern Irish evangelicalism. The conclusion has global reverberations as it reflects on the place of 'strong' religions -- such as evangelicalism and other forms of fundamentalism -- in contemporary world politics.

Religion and Transformation in South Africa? Institutional and Discursive Change in a Charismatic Congregation

A number of Christian churches in South Africa have proclaimed their commitment to reconciliation and the elimination of unjust inequalities. This study analyses how these commitments are being worked out at the micro-level of a congregation. Using an ethnographic approach, I explore how a charismatic congregation in Cape Town has changed from being nearly all-white to being more inclusive. I explore links between individual, cognitive identity change and institutional change; and consider the discourses which justify change, including their emphasis on 'unity in diversity' and 'restitution'. I outline the limitations of change, including the persistence of 'racialised' leadership structures and the discursive privileging of unity over restitution. This allows us to understand how micro-level changes take place, to explore their potentialities and limitations, and to apply these insights to other contexts.

Nonclassicality and criticality in symmetry protected magnetic phases

Quantum and global discord in a spin-1 Heisenberg chain subject to single-ion anisotropy (uniaxial field) are studied using exact diagonalisation and the density matrix renormalisation group (DMRG). We find that these measures of quantum non-classicality are able to detect the quantum phase transitions confining the symmetry protected Haldane phase and show critical scaling with universal exponents. Moreover, in the case of thermal states, we find that quantum discord can increase with increasing temperature.

History and Salvation in Lebor na hUidre

This chapter argues that the scribes of Lebor na hUidre show a persistent concern with eschatology, and in particular with the salvation of souls and the Last Judgement. In some cases the texts are overtly religious, but in a substantial number of cases they are explicitly or implicitly historical. The pivotal event is the mission of St Patrick, which is identified in several of the texts examined here as the origin of Christianity in Ireland. Pagans are repeatedly brought into contact with Christians/saints or other representatives of God, revealing the victory of Christianity and the subjugation of paganism. It is argued that the stories are to be placed within the medieval western theory of history according to which God’s plan for humanity was revealed through a study of the events of the past.

Diabetes in the young - a global view and worldwide estimates of numbers of children with type 1 diabetes

This paper describes the methodology, results and limitations of the 2013 International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Atlas (6th edition) estimates of the worldwide numbers of prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in children (<15 years). The majority of relevant information in the published literature is in the form of incidence rates derived from registers of newly diagnosed cases. Studies were graded on quality criteria and, if no information was available in the published literature, extrapolation was used to assign a country the rate from an adjacent country with similar characteristics. Prevalence rates were then derived from these incidence rates and applied to United Nations 2012 Revision population estimates for 2013 for each country to obtain estimates of the number of prevalent cases. Data availability was highest for the countries in Europe (76%) and lowest for the countries in sub-Saharan Africa (8%). The prevalence estimates indicate that there are almost 500,000 children aged under 15 years with type 1 diabetes worldwide, the largest numbers being in Europe (129,000) and North America (108,700). Countries with the highest estimated numbers of new cases annually were the United States (13,000), India (10,900) and Brazil (5000). Compared with the prevalence estimates made in previous editions of the IDF Diabetes Atlas, the numbers have increased in most of the IDF Regions, often reflecting the incidence rate increases that have been well-documented in many countries. Monogenic diabetes is increasingly being recognised among those with clinical features of type 1 or type 2 diabetes as genetic studies become available, but population-based data on incidence and prevalence show wide variation due to lack of standardisation in the studies. Similarly, studies on type 2 diabetes in childhood suggest increased incidence and prevalence in many countries, especially in Indigenous peoples and ethnic minorities, but detailed population-based studies remain limited.

Genetic provenance and best practice woodland management: a case study in native alder (Alnus glutinosa)

In recent years, the native woodlands of Europe, including those of Britain and Ireland, have increasingly come under threat from a range of biotic and abiotic factors, and are therefore a conservation priority demanding careful management in order to realise their inherent ecological and cultural benefits. Because the distribution of genetic variation across populations and regions is increasingly considered an important component of woodland management, we carried out a population genetic analysis on black alder (Alnus glutinosa) across Northern Ireland in order to inform “best practice” strategies. Our findings suggest that populations harbour high levels of genetic diversity, with very little differentiation between populations. Significant F IS values were observed in over half of the populations analysed, however, which could reflect inbreeding as a result of the patchy occurrence of alder in Northern Ireland, with scattered, favourable damp habitats being largely isolated from each other by extensive tracts of farmland. Although there is no genetic evidence to support the broad-scale implementation of tree seed zones along the lines of those proposed for native woodlands in Great Britain, we suggest that the localised occurrence of rare chloroplast haplotypes should be taken into account on a case-by-case basis. This, coupled with the identification of populations containing high genetic diversity and that are broadly representative of the region as a whole, will provide a sound genetic basis for woodland management, both in alder and more generally for species that exhibit low levels of genetic differentiation.