Dynamic safety analysis of managed pressure drilling operations

The exploration and development of oil and gas reserves located in harsh offshore environments are characterized with high risk. Some of these reserves would be uneconomical if produced using conventional drilling technology due to increased drilling problems and prolonged non-productive time. Seeking new ways to reduce drilling cost and minimize risks has led to the development of Managed Pressure Drilling techniques. Managed pressure drilling methods address the drawbacks of conventional overbalanced and underbalanced drilling techniques. As managed pressure drilling techniques are evolving, there are many unanswered questions related to safety and operating pressure regimes. Quantitative risk assessment techniques are often used to answer these questions. Quantitative risk assessment is conducted for the various stages of drilling operations – drilling ahead, tripping operation, casing and cementing. A diagnostic model for analyzing the rotating control device, the main component of managed pressure drilling techniques, is also studied. The logic concept of Noisy-OR is explored to capture the unique relationship between casing and cementing operations in leading to well integrity failure as well as its usage to model the critical components of constant bottom-hole pressure drilling technique of managed pressure drilling during tripping operation. Relevant safety functions and inherent safety principles are utilized to improve well integrity operations. Loss function modelling approach to enable dynamic consequence analysis is adopted to study blowout risk for real-time decision making. The aggregation of the blowout loss categories, comprising: production, asset, human health, environmental response and reputation losses leads to risk estimation using dynamically determined probability of occurrence. Lastly, various sub-models developed for the stages/sub-operations of drilling operations and the consequence modelling approach are integrated for a holistic risk analysis of drilling operations.

Mapped distribution of intertidal habitats in Australia between 1999 and 2014, link to data in ArcGIS format (29 MB)

Shorebirds have declined severely across the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Many species rely on intertidal habitats for foraging, yet the distribution and conservation status of these habitats across Australia remain poorly understood. Here, we utilised freely available satellite imagery to produce the first map of intertidal habitats across Australia. We estimated a minimum intertidal area of 9856 km**2, with Queensland and Western Australia supporting the largest areas. Thirty-nine percent of intertidal habitats were protected in Australia, with some primarily within marine protected areas (e.g. Queensland) and others within terrestrial protected areas (e.g. Victoria). In fact, three percent of all intertidal habitats were protected both by both marine and terrestrial protected areas. To achieve conservation targets, protected area boundaries must align more accurately with intertidal habitats. Shorebirds use intertidal areas to forage and supratidal areas to roost, so a coordinated management approach is required to account for movement of birds between terrestrial and marine habitats. Ultimately, shorebird declines are occurring despite high levels of habitat protection in Australia. There is a need for a concerted effort both nationally and internationally to map and understand how intertidal habitats are changing, and how habitat conservation can be implemented more effectively.

Georeferenced standardized apparent wave power along the coastline of Cabrera National Park for analysis of essential habitats of littoral species

Wind- induced exposure is one of the major forces shaping the geomorphology and biota in coastal areas. The effect of wave exposure on littoral biota is well known in marine environments (Ekebon et al., 2003; Burrows et al., 2008). In the Cabrera Archipelago National Park wave exposure has demostrated to have an effect on the spatial distribution of different stages of E.marginatus (Alvarez et al., 2010). Standarized average wave exposures during 2008 along the Cabrera Archipelago National park coast line were calculated to be applied in studies of littoral species distribution within the archipelago. Average wave exposure (or apparent wave power) was calculated for points located 50 m equidistant on the coastline following the EXA methodology (EXposure estimates for fragmented Archipelagos) (Ekebon et al., 2003). The average wave exposures were standardized from 1 to 100 (minimum and maximum in the area), showing coastal areas with different levels of mea wave exposure during the year. Input wind data (direction and intensity) from 2008 was registered at the Cabrera mooring located north of Cabrera Archipelago. Data were provided by IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB, TMMOS http://www.imedea.uib-csic.es/tmoos/boyas/). This cartography has been developed under the framework of the project EPIMHAR, funded by the National Park's Network (Spanish Ministry of Environment, Maritime and Rural Affairs, reference: 012/2007 ). Part of this work has been developed under the research programs funded by "Fons de Garantia Agrària i Pesquera de les Illes Balears (FOGAIBA)".

Methane and sulphate consumption in different habitats of the Håkon Mosby Mud Volcano (HMMV)

The Hakon Mosby Mud Volcano is a highly active methane seep hosting different chemosynthetic communities such as thiotrophic bacterial mats and siboglinid tubeworm assemblages. This study focuses on in situ measurements of methane fluxes to and from these different habitats, in comparison to benthic methane and oxygen consumption rates. By quantifying in situ oxygen, methane, and sulfide fluxes in different habitats, a spatial budget covering areas of 10-1000 -m diameter was established. The range of dissolved methane efflux (770-2 mmol m-2 d-1) from the center to the outer rim was associated with a decrease in temperature gradients from 46°C to < 1°C m-1, indicating that spatial variations in fluid flow control the distribution of benthic habitats and activities. Accordingly, total oxygen uptake (TOU) varied between the different habitats by one order of magnitude from 15 mmol m-2 d-1 to 161 mmol m-2 d-1. High fluid flow rates appeared to suppress benthic activities by limiting the availability of electron acceptors. Accordingly, the highest TOU was associated with the lowest fluid flow and methane efflux. This was most likely due to the aerobic oxidation of methane, which may be more relevant as a sink for methane as previously considered in submarine ecosystems.

Relative abundance of prokaryotes in sediments of the Håkon Mosby mud volcano (Z1-Z3, all habitats)

CARD-FISH was performed as previously described in Ruff et al., (2013; doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072627) with the following modifications. 4-6 µl of 25-fold diluted sediment were used for filtration. Archaeal cell walls were permeabilized with 0.1M HCl for 2 min to detect ANME-3 cells, or Proteinase K solution (15 µg ml-1 (Merck, Darmstadt, Germany) in 0.05 M EDTA (pH 8), 0.1 M Tris-HCl (pH 8), 0.5 M NaCl) for 2-4 min at room temperature for all other archaea. Bacterial cell walls were permeabilized with lysozyme solution (1000kU/ml) for 60 min at 37°. Cells were stained with DAPI (1µg/ml), embedded in mounting medium and counted in 40-60 independent microscopic fields using an Axiophot II epifluorescence microscope (Carl Zeiss, Jena, Germany).

Hide, survive and hitch a ride, the dispersal of Antarctic krill into the nursery habitats

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), a key species of Southern Ocean food webs plays a central role in ecosystem processes, community dynamics of apex predators and as a commercial fishery target. A decline in krill abundance during the late 20th century in the SW Atlantic sector has been linked to a concomitant decrease in sea ice, based on the hypothesis that sea ice acts as a feeding ground for overwintering larvae. However, evidence supporting this hypothesis has been scarce due to logistical challenges of collecting data in austral winter. Here we report on a winter study that involved diver observations of larval krill in their under-ice environment, ship-based studies of krill, sea ice physical characteristics, and biophysical model analyses of krill-ocean-ice interactions. We present evidence that complex under-ice topography is vital for larval krill in terms of dispersal and advection into high productive nursery habitats, rather than the provision by the ice environment of food. Further, ongoing changes in sea ice will lead to increases in sea-ice regimes favourable for overwintering larval krill but shifting southwards. This will result in ice-free conditions in the SW Atlantic, which will be conducive for enhancing food supplies due to sufficient light and iron availability, thus enhancing larvae development and growth. However, the associated impact on dispersal and advection may lead to a net shift in krill from the SW Atlantic to regions further east by the eastward flowing ACC and the northern branch of the Weddell Gyre, with profound consequences for the Southern Ocean pelagic ecosystem.

Psychosocial morbidity in women with abnormal cervical cytology managed by cytological surveillance or initial colposcopy : longitudinal analysis from the TOMBOLA randomised trial

We are grateful for the co-operation and assistance that we received from NHS staff in the co-ordinating centres and clinical sites. We thank the women who participated in TOMBOLA. The TOMBOLA trial was supported by the Medical Research Council (G9700808) and the NHS in England and Scotland. The TOMBOLA Group comprises the following: Grant-holders: University of Aberdeen and NHS Grampian, Aberdeen, Scotland: Maggie Cruickshank, Graeme Murray, David Parkin, Louise Smart, Eric Walker, Norman Waugh (Principal Investigator 2004–2008) University of Nottingham and Nottingham NHS, Nottingham, England: Mark Avis, Claire Chilvers, Katherine Fielding, Rob Hammond, David Jenkins, Jane Johnson, Keith Neal, Ian Russell, Rashmi Seth, Dave Whynes University of Dundee and NHS Tayside, Dundee, Tayside: Ian Duncan, Alistair Robertson (deceased) University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada: Julian Little (Principal Investigator 1999–2004) National Cancer Registry, Cork, Ireland: Linda Sharp Bangor University, Bangor, Wales: Ian Russell University of Hull, Hull, England: Leslie G Walker Staff in clinical sites and co-ordinating centres Grampian Breda Anthony, Sarah Bell, Adrienne Bowie, Katrina Brown (deceased), Joe Brown, Kheng Chew, Claire Cochran, Seonaidh Cotton, Jeannie Dean, Kate Dunn, Jane Edwards, David Evans, Julie Fenty, Al Finlayson, Marie Gallagher, Nicola Gray, Maureen Heddle, Alison Innes, Debbie Jobson, Mandy Keillor, Jayne MacGregor, Sheona Mackenzie, Amanda Mackie, Gladys McPherson, Ike Okorocha, Morag Reilly, Joan Rodgers, Alison Thornton, Rachel Yeats Tayside Lindyanne Alexander, Lindsey Buchanan, Susan Henderson, Tine Iterbeke, Susanneke Lucas, Gillian Manderson, Sheila Nicol, Gael Reid, Carol Robinson, Trish Sandilands Nottingham Marg Adrian, Ahmed Al-Sahab, Elaine Bentley, Hazel Brook, Claire Bushby, Rita Cannon, Brenda Cooper, Ruth Dowell, Mark Dunderdale, Dr Gabrawi, Li Guo, Lisa Heideman, Steve Jones, Salli Lawson, Zoë Philips, Christopher Platt, Shakuntala Prabhakaran, John Rippin, Rose Thompson, Elizabeth Williams, Claire Woolley Statistical analysis Seonaidh Cotton, Kirsten Harrild, John Norrie, Linda Sharp External Trial Steering Committee Nicholas Day (chair, 1999–2004), Theresa Marteau (chair 2004-), Mahesh Parmar, Julietta Patnick and Ciaran Woodman.

Differences in the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis in primary and secondary care : only one-third of patients are managed in rheumatology

Funding: No specific funding was received from any bodies in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors to carry out the work described in this article. Disclosure statement: G.T.J. and G.J.M. have received research funding from Pfizer and AbbVie. L.E.D. conducted the analysis while funded by an Medical Research Council PhD studentship

Analytical method for designing dispersion-managed fiber systems

Peer reviewed

Prioritizing tropical habitats for long-distance migratory songbirds: an assessment of habitat quality at a stopover site in Colombia

Long-distance migratory birds are declining globally and migration has been identified as the primary source of mortality in this group. Despite this, our lack of knowledge of habitat use and quality at stopovers, i.e., sites where the energy for migration is accumulated, remains a barrier to designing appropriate conservation measures, especially in tropical regions. There is therefore an urgent need to assess stopover habitat quality and concurrently identify efficient and cost-effective methods for doing so. Given that fuel deposition rates directly influence stopover duration, departure fuel load, and subsequent speed of migration, they are expected to provide a direct measure of habitat quality and have the advantage of being measurable through body-mass changes. Here, we examined seven potential indicators of quality, including body-mass change, for two ecologically distinct Neotropical migratory landbirds on stopover in shade-coffee plantations and tropical humid premontane forest during spring migration in Colombia: (1) rate of body-mass change; (2) foraging rate; (3) recapture rate; (4) density; (5) flock size; (6) age and sex ratios; and (7) body-mass distribution. We found higher rates of mass change in premontane forest than in shade-coffee in Tennessee Warbler Oreothlypis peregrina, a difference that was mirrored in higher densities and body masses in forest. In Gray-cheeked Thrush Catharus minimus, a lack of recaptures in shade-coffee and higher densities in forest, also suggested that forest provided superior fueling conditions. For a reliable assessment of habitat quality, we therefore recommend using a suite of indicators, taking into account each species’ ecology and methodological considerations. Our results also imply that birds stopping over in lower quality habitats may spend a longer time migrating and require more stopovers, potentially leading to important carryover effects on reproductive fitness. Evaluating habitat quality is therefore imperative prior to defining the conservation value of newly identified stopover regions.

New contributions to the native and alien flora in riparian habitats of the Cantabrian watershed (Northern Spain)

As a result of a floristic survey carried out in riparian habitats of northern Spain, new chorological data are provided for 9 alien and 6 native plant species. Some species are reported for the first time at regional scale, such as Carex strigosa, Helianthus x laetiflorus and Persicaria pensylvanica in Cantabria. Also noteworthy is the finding of naturalised populations of the North American grass Muhlenbergia schreberi at the Urumea river basin, which represents the second reference for the Iberian Peninsula.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are widely used as tools to maintain biodiversity, protect habitats and ensure that development is sustainable. If MPAs are to maintain their role into the future it is important for managers to understand how conditions at these sites may change as a result of climate change and other drivers, and this understanding needs to extend beyond temperature to a range of key ecosystem indicators. This case study demonstrates how spatially-aggregated model results for multiple variables can provide useful projections for MPA planners and managers. Conditions in European MPAs have been projected for the 2040s using unmitigated and globally managed scenarios of climate change and river management, and hence high and low emissions of greenhouse gases and riverborne nutrients. The results highlight the vulnerability of potential refuge sites in the north-west Mediterranean and the need for careful monitoring at MPAs to the north and west of the British Isles, which may be affected by changes in Atlantic circulation patterns. The projections also support the need for more MPAs in the eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic Sea, and can inform the selection of sites.

Descriptions of Scottish Priority Marine Features (PMFs).

Background The seas around Scotland are rich and diverse – Scotland’s position at the edge of the continental shelf, the long coastline, large area of sea and the mixing of warm and coldwater currents combine to make its waters a special place for marine wildlife and habitats. Scotland has over 18,000 km of coastline and its inshore and offshore areas are among the largest of any EU country, representing 13% of all European seas. Scotland’s seas are of outstanding scenic, historical and cultural value and are part of the national identity at home and abroad. The Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 and the UK Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009 include new powers and duties to ensure that our seas are managed sustainably for future generations, integrating the economic growth of marine industries with the need to protect these assets. Measures to conserve Scotland’s marine natural heritage are based on a three pillar approach, with action at the wider seas level (e.g. marine planning or sectoral controls); specific species conservation measures (e.g. improved protection for seals); and through site protection measures - the identification of new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). To help target action under each of the three pillars, Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) have generated a focused list of habitats and species of priority conservation importance - the Priority Marine Features (PMFs). The aim of the current study was to produce a descriptive catalogue of the Scottish PMFs (including component habitats and species where appropriate) to serve as a reference for future nature conservation action. Whilst derived from available existing accounts, the succinct 1-page descriptions are written from a Scottish perspective, refining, but clearly linking to more generic UK, EC or OSPAR (Oslo and Paris Commission) commentary. Available information on the geographic distribution of the features was collated as part of the project and a summary map is provided in each description. Main findings  This project has generated a descriptive catalogue of the 81 PMFs that have been identified in the seas around Scotland (out to the limit of the UK continental shelf). The list comprises 26 broad habitats (e.g. burrowed mud), seven low or limited mobility species (e.g. ocean quahog) and 48 mobile species, including fish (e.g. blue ling) and marine mammals (e.g. minke whale).  Information on the distribution of the PMFs was collated within a Geographic Information System (GIS). This is the first time that data about such a diverse range of Scottish marine nature conservation interests have been compiled within a single repository. These data have and will be used in conjunction with other contextual base-mapping to inform the development of nature conservation advice and commentary (e.g. in the production of the Scotland’s Marine Atlas - Baxter et al., 2011).  The feature distribution mapping used in the production of this report is being made available to view online via the National Marine Plan Interactive web portal (NMPi - http://www.gov.scot/Topics/marine/seamanagement/nmpihome). As new or refined data on Scottish PMFs become available, these will be fed into updates to the project geodatabase and NMPi.

Descriptions of Scottish Priority Marine Features (PMFs).

Background The seas around Scotland are rich and diverse – Scotland’s position at the edge of the continental shelf, the long coastline, large area of sea and the mixing of warm and coldwater currents combine to make its waters a special place for marine wildlife and habitats. Scotland has over 18,000 km of coastline and its inshore and offshore areas are among the largest of any EU country, representing 13% of all European seas. Scotland’s seas are of outstanding scenic, historical and cultural value and are part of the national identity at home and abroad. The Marine (Scotland) Act 2010 and the UK Marine and Coastal Access Act 2009 include new powers and duties to ensure that our seas are managed sustainably for future generations, integrating the economic growth of marine industries with the need to protect these assets. Measures to conserve Scotland’s marine natural heritage are based on a three pillar approach, with action at the wider seas level (e.g. marine planning or sectoral controls); specific species conservation measures (e.g. improved protection for seals); and through site protection measures - the identification of new Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). To help target action under each of the three pillars, Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) have generated a focused list of habitats and species of priority conservation importance - the Priority Marine Features (PMFs). The aim of the current study was to produce a descriptive catalogue of the Scottish PMFs (including component habitats and species where appropriate) to serve as a reference for future nature conservation action. Whilst derived from available existing accounts, the succinct 1-page descriptions are written from a Scottish perspective, refining, but clearly linking to more generic UK, EC or OSPAR (Oslo and Paris Commission) commentary. Available information on the geographic distribution of the features was collated as part of the project and a summary map is provided in each description. Main findings  This project has generated a descriptive catalogue of the 81 PMFs that have been identified in the seas around Scotland (out to the limit of the UK continental shelf). The list comprises 26 broad habitats (e.g. burrowed mud), seven low or limited mobility species (e.g. ocean quahog) and 48 mobile species, including fish (e.g. blue ling) and marine mammals (e.g. minke whale).  Information on the distribution of the PMFs was collated within a Geographic Information System (GIS). This is the first time that data about such a diverse range of Scottish marine nature conservation interests have been compiled within a single repository. These data have and will be used in conjunction with other contextual base-mapping to inform the development of nature conservation advice and commentary (e.g. in the production of the Scotland’s Marine Atlas - Baxter et al., 2011).  The feature distribution mapping used in the production of this report is being made available to view online via the National Marine Plan Interactive web portal (NMPi - http://www.gov.scot/Topics/marine/seamanagement/nmpihome). As new or refined data on Scottish PMFs become available, these will be fed into updates to the project geodatabase and NMPi.