Equilibrium Exchange Rate Determination and Multiple Structural Changes

The large appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar in the 1980s stimulated an important debate on the usefulness of unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks. In this paper, we propose a simple model to describe the evolution of the real exchange rate. We then propose a more general smooth transition (STR) function than has hitherto been employed, which is able to capture structural changes along the (long-run) equilibrium path, and show that this is consistent with our economic model. Our framework allows for a gradual adjustment between regimes and allows for under- and/or over-valued exchange rate adjustments. Using monthly and quarterly data for up to twenty OECD countries, we apply our methodology to investigate the univariate time series properties of CPI-based real exchange rates with both the U.S. dollar and German mark as the numeraire currencies. The empirical results show that, for more than half of the quarterly series, the evidence in favour of the stationarity of the real exchange rate was clearer in the sub-sample period post-1980.

Simultaneous CD8+ T cell responses to multiple tumor antigen epitopes in a multipeptide melanoma vaccine.

The recent identification and molecular characterization of tumor-associated antigens recognized by tumor-reactive CD8+ T lymphocytes has led to the development of antigen-specific immunotherapy of cancer. Among other approaches, clinical studies have been initiated to assess the in vivo immunogenicity of tumor antigen-derived peptides in cancer patients. In this study, we have analyzed the CD8+ T cell response of an ocular melanoma patient to a vaccine composed of four different tumor antigen-derived peptides administered simultaneously in incomplete Freund's adjuvant (IFA). Peptide NY-ESO-1(157-165) was remarkably immunogenic and induced a CD8+ T cell response detectable ex vivo at an early time point of the vaccination protocol. A CD8+ T cell response to the peptide analog Melan-A(26-35 A27L) was also detectable ex vivo at a later time point, whereas CD8+ T cells specific for peptide tyrosinase(368-376) were detected only after in vitro peptide stimulation. No detectable CD8+ T cell response to peptide gp100(457-466) was observed. Vaccine-induced CD8+ T cell responses declined rapidly after the initial response but increased again after further peptide injections. In addition, tumor antigen-specific CD8+ T cells were isolated from a vaccine injection site biopsy sample. Importantly, vaccine-induced CD8+ T cells specifically lysed tumor cells expressing the corresponding antigen. Together, these data demonstrate that simultaneous immunization with multiple tumor antigen-derived peptides can result in the elicitation of multiepitope-directed CD8+ T cell responses that are reactive against antigen-expressing tumors and able to infiltrate antigen-containing peripheral sites.

Efficacy of vitamin D3 as add-on therapy in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis receiving subcutaneous interferon β-1a: a Phase II, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

Recent studies have demonstrated the immunomodulatory properties of vitamin D, and vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for the development of MS. The risk of developing MS has, in fact, been associated with rising latitudes, past exposure to sun and serum vitamin D status. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels have also been associated with relapses and disability progression. The identification of risk factors, such as vitamin D deficiency, in MS may provide an opportunity to improve current treatment strategies, through combination therapy with established MS treatments. Accordingly, vitamin D may play a role in MS therapy. Small clinical studies of vitamin D supplementation in patients with MS have reported positive immunomodulatory effects, reduced relapse rates and a reduction in the number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions. However, large randomized clinical trials of vitamin D supplementation in patients with MS are lacking. SOLAR (Supplementation of VigantOL(®) oil versus placebo as Add-on in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis receiving Rebif(®) treatment) is a 96-week, three-arm, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, Phase II trial (NCT01285401). SOLAR will evaluate the efficacy of vitamin D(3) as add-on therapy to subcutaneous interferon beta-1a in patients with RRMS. Recruitment began in February 2011 and is aimed to take place over 1 calendar year due to the potential influence of seasonal differences in 25(OH)D levels.

Income stratification and the measurement of interdistributional inequality between multiple groups

This paper proposes a new class of stratification indices that measure interdistributional inequality between multiple groups. The class is based on a conceptualisation of stratification as a process that results in a hierarchical ordering of groups and therefore seeks to capture not only the extent to which groups form well-defined strata in the income distribution but also the scale of the resultant differences in income standards between them, where these two factors play the same role as identification and alienation respectively in the measurement of polarisation. The properties of the class as a whole are investigated as well as those of selected members of it: zeroth and first power indices may be interpreted as measuring the overall incidence and depth of stratification respectively, while higher power indices members are directly sensitive to the severity of stratification between groups. An illustrative application provides an empirical analysis of global income stratification by regions in 1993.

Positive solutions of nonlinear problems involving the square root of the Laplacian

We consider nonlinear elliptic problems involving a nonlocal operator: the square root of the Laplacian in a bounded domain with zero Dirichlet boundary conditions. For positive solutions to problems with power nonlinearities, we establish existence and regularity results, as well as a priori estimates of Gidas-Spruck type. In addition, among other results, we prove a symmetry theorem of Gidas-Ni-Nirenberg type.

Multiple Objectives in Monetary Policy: A de Facto Analysis for ‘Advanced’ Countries

A statistical methodology is developed by which realised outcomes can be used to identify, for calendar years between 1974 and 2012, when policy makers in ‘advanced’ economies have successfully pursued single objectives of different kinds, or multiple objectives. A simple criterion is then used to distinguish between multiple objectives pure and simple and multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint. The overall and individual country results which this methodology produces seem broadly plausible. Unconditional and conditional analyses of the inflation and growth associated with different types of objectives reveal that multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint are associated with roughly as good economic performance as the single objective of inflation. A proposal is then made as to how the remit of an inflation-targeting central bank could be adjusted to allow it to pursue other objectives in extremis without losing the credibility effects associated with inflation targeting.

A Multiple Break Panel Approach to Estimating United States Phillips Curves

Phillips curves are often estimated without due attention being paid to the underlying time series properties of the data. In particular, the consequences of inflation having discrete breaks in mean have not been studied adequately. We show by means of simulations and a detailed empirical example based on United States data that not taking account of breaks may lead to biased, and therefore spurious, estimates of Phillips curves. We suggest a method to account for the breaks in mean inflation and obtain meaningful and unbiased estimates of the short- and long-run Phillips curves in the United States.

99mTc-sestamibi imaging and bone marrow karyotyping in the assessment of multiple myeloma and MGUS

AIM: The first pathogenetic step in multiple myeloma is the emergence of a limited number of clonal plasma cells, clinically known as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Patients with MGUS do not have symptoms or end-organ damage but they do have a 1% annual risk of progression to multiple myeloma or related malignant disorders. With progression of MGUS to multiple myeloma, complex genetic events occur in the neoplastic plasma cell. Karyotyping and fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) were shown to be of prognostic value in patients with multiple myeloma. Tc-sestamibi imaging reflects myeloma disease activity in bone marrow with very high sensitivity and specificity predicting disease evolution. This study was undertaken to evaluate the role of Tc-sestamibi imaging and cytogenetic analysis in prognosis prediction of MGUS and multiple myeloma. METHODS: We enrolled 30 consecutive patients with a confirmed diagnosis of multiple myeloma or MGUS. Bone marrow biopsy and biochemical staging according to the International Staging System (ISS) were performed in all cases. Karyotype analysis and FISH were performed in 11 of 12 patients with MGUS and in 17 of 18 patients with multiple myeloma having adequate metaphases. RESULTS: The karyotype was abnormal in four of 11 MGUS and in six of 17 multiple myeloma. Abnormalities of chromosome 13 were present in one case of MGUS and in six cases of multiple myeloma whereas the involvement of immunoglobulin was observed in one case of multiple myeloma. An abnormal FISH panel was found in four MGUS and nine multiple myeloma patients. All patients with MGUS showed a normal MIBI scan (score 0). Among patients with multiple myeloma only three, all with ISS stage I, showed a normal scan while a positive scan was obtained in others (score range, 1-7). The MIBI uptake was strongly related to the bone marrow plasma cell infiltration and to cytogenetic abnormalities. Particularly, a MIBI uptake score above 5 identified patients with poor prognosis encompassing all stage III multiple myeloma and three of seven stage II multiple myeloma. On the other hand all stage I and II patients having a MIBI score less than 5 showed a good prognosis. CONCLUSION: Both cytogenetic analysis and a MIBI scan add no relevant prognostic information to the ISS in patients with stage I and III multiple myeloma. The MIBI scan was of prognostic value in stage II multiple myeloma patients. Additionally, MIBI imaging may be useful to guide bone marrow biopsy in order to obtain adequate samples for cytogenetic analysis.

Perinatal care at the limit of viability between 22 and 26 completed weeks of gestation in Switzerland.

Perinatal care of pregnant women at high risk for preterm delivery and of preterm infants born at the limit of viability (22-26 completed weeks of gestation) requires a multidisciplinary approach by an experienced perinatal team. Limited precision in the determination of both gestational age and foetal weight, as well as biological variability may significantly affect the course of action chosen in individual cases. The decisions that must be taken with the pregnant women and on behalf of the preterm infant in this context are complex and have far-reaching consequences. When counselling pregnant women and their partners, neonatologists and obstetricians should provide them with comprehensive information in a sensitive and supportive way to build a basis of trust. The decisions are developed in a continuing dialogue between all parties involved (physicians, midwives, nursing staff and parents) with the principal aim to find solutions that are in the infant's and pregnant woman's best interest. Knowledge of current gestational age-specific mortality and morbidity rates and how they are modified by prenatally known prognostic factors (estimated foetal weight, sex, exposure or nonexposure to antenatal corticosteroids, single or multiple births) as well as the application of accepted ethical principles form the basis for responsible decision-making. Communication between all parties involved plays a central role. The members of the interdisciplinary working group suggest that the care of preterm infants with a gestational age between 22 0/7 and 23 6/7 weeks should generally be limited to palliative care. Obstetric interventions for foetal indications such as Caesarean section delivery are usually not indicated. In selected cases, for example, after 23 weeks of pregnancy have been completed and several of the above mentioned prenatally known prognostic factors are favourable or well informed parents insist on the initiation of life-sustaining therapies, active obstetric interventions for foetal indications and provisional intensive care of the neonate may be reasonable. In preterm infants with a gestational age between 24 0/7 and 24 6/7 weeks, it can be difficult to determine whether the burden of obstetric interventions and neonatal intensive care is justified given the limited chances of success of such a therapy. In such cases, the individual constellation of prenatally known factors which impact on prognosis can be helpful in the decision making process with the parents. In preterm infants with a gestational age between 25 0/7 and 25 6/7 weeks, foetal surveillance, obstetric interventions for foetal indications and neonatal intensive care measures are generally indicated. However, if several prenatally known prognostic factors are unfavourable and the parents agree, primary non-intervention and neonatal palliative care can be considered. All pregnant women with threatening preterm delivery or premature rupture of membranes at the limit of viability must be transferred to a perinatal centre with a level III neonatal intensive care unit no later than 23 0/7 weeks of gestation, unless emergency delivery is indicated. An experienced neonatology team should be involved in all deliveries that take place after 23 0/7 weeks of gestation to help to decide together with the parents if the initiation of intensive care measures appears to be appropriate or if preference should be given to palliative care (i.e., primary non-intervention). In doubtful situations, it can be reasonable to initiate intensive care and to admit the preterm infant to a neonatal intensive care unit (i.e., provisional intensive care). The infant's clinical evolution and additional discussions with the parents will help to clarify whether the life-sustaining therapies should be continued or withdrawn. Life support is continued as long as there is reasonable hope for survival and the infant's burden of intensive care is acceptable. If, on the other hand, the health care team and the parents have to recognise that in the light of a very poor prognosis the burden of the currently used therapies has become disproportionate, intensive care measures are no longer justified and other aspects of care (e.g., relief of pain and suffering) are the new priorities (i.e., redirection of care). If a decision is made to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining therapies, the health care team should focus on comfort care for the dying infant and support for the parents.

CYP3A activity measured by the midazolam test is not related to 3435 C >T polymorphism in the multiple drug resistance transporter gene.

A recent study with 69 Japanese liver transplants treated with tacrolimus found that the MDR13435 C >T polymorphism, but not the MDR12677 G >T polymorphism, was associated with differences in the intestinal expression level of CYP3A4 mRNA. In the present study, over 6 h, we measured the kinetics of a 75 microg oral dose of midazolam, a CYP3A substrate, in 21 healthy subjects genotyped for the MDR13435 C >T and 2677 G >T polymorphism. No statistically significant differences were found in the calculated pharmacokinetic parameters between the three 3435 C >T genotypes (TT, CT and CC group, respectively: Cmax (mean +/- SD: 0.30 +/- 0.08 ng/ml, 0.31 +/- 0.09 ng/ml and 0.31 +/- 0.11 ng/ml; Apparent clearance: 122 +/- 29 l/h, 156 +/- 92 l/h and 111 +/- 35 l/h; t1/2: 1.9 +/- 1.1 h, 1.6 +/- 0.90 h and 1.7 +/- 0.7 h). In addition, the 30-min 1'OH midazolam to midazolam ratio, a marker of CYP3A activity, determined in 74 HIV-positive patients before the introduction of antiretroviral treatment, was not significantly different between the three 3435 C >T genotypes (mean ratio +/- SD: 3.65 +/- 2.24, 4.22 +/- 3.49 and 4.24 +/- 2.03, in the TT, CT and CC groups, respectively). Similarly, no association was found between the MDR12677 G >T polymorphism and CYP3A activity in the healthy subjects or in the HIV-positive patients. The existence of a strong association between the activity of CYP3A and MDR13435 C >T and 2677 G >T polymorphisms appears unlikely, at least in Caucasian populations and/or in the absence of specific environmental factors.

International Institutions as Solutions to Underlying Games of Cooperation

This Working Paper was presented at the international workshop "Game Theory in International Relations at 50", organized and coordinated by Professor Jacint Jordana and Dr. Yannis Karagiannis at the Institut Barcelona d'Estudis Internacionals on May 22, 2009. The day-long Workshop was inspired by the desire to honour the ground-breaking work of Professor Thomas Schelling in 1959-1960, and to understand where the discipline International Relations lies today vis-à-vis game theory.

Vitamin D has a direct immunomodulatory effect on CD8+ T cells of patients with early multiple sclerosis and healthy control subjects.

Little is known on a putative effect of vitamin D on CD8+ T cells. Yet, these cells are involved in the immmunopathogenesis of MS. We assessed the cytokine profile of EBV-specific CD8+ T cells of 10 early MS patients and 10 healthy control subjects with or without 1,25(OH)(2)D(3) and found that, with 1,25(OH)(2)D(3), these cells secreted less IFN-γ and TNF-α and more IL-5 and TGF-β. CD4+ T cell depletion or even culture with CD8+ T cells only did not abolish the immunomodulatory effect of 1,25(OH)(2)D(3) on CD8+ T cells, suggesting that 1,25(OH)(2)D(3) can act directly on CD8+ T cells.