940 resultados para Logistic Epidemic
Resumo:
Ross River (RR) virus is an alphavirus endemic to Australia and New Guinea and is the aetiological agent of epidemic polyarthritis or RR virus disease. Here we provide evidence that RR virus uses the collagen-binding α1β1 integrin as a cellular receptor. Infection could be inhibited by collagen IV and antibodies specific for the β1 and α1 integrin proteins, and fibroblasts from α1-integrin-/- mice were less efficiently infected than wild-type fibroblasts. Soluble α1β1 integrin bound immobilized RR virus, and peptides representing the α1β1 integrin binding-site on collagen IV inhibited virus binding to cells. We speculate that two highly conserved regions within the cell-receptor binding domain of E2 mimic collagen and provide access to cellular collagen-binding receptors.
Resumo:
Ross River virus (RRV) is the predominant cause of epidemic polyarthritis in Australia, yet the antigenic determinants are not well defined. We aimed to characterize epitope(s) on RRV-E2 for a panel of monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) that recognize overlapping conformational epitopes on the E2 envelope protein of RRV and that neutralize virus infection of cells in vitro. Phage-displayed random peptide libraries were probed with the MAbs T1E7, NB3C4, and T10C9 using solution-phase and solid-phase biopanning methods. The peptides VSIFPPA and KTAISPT were selected 15 and 6 times, respectively, by all three of the MAbs using solution-phase biopanning. The peptide LRLPPAP was selected 8 times by NB3C4 using solid-phase biopanning; this peptide shares a trio of amino acids with the peptide VSIFPPA. Phage that expressed the peptides VSIFPPA and LRLPPAP were reactive with T1E7 and/or NB3C4, and phage that expressed the peptides VSIFPPA, LRLPPAP, and KTAISPT partially inhibited the reactivity of T1E7 with RRV. The selected peptides resemble regions of RRV-E2 adjacent to sites mutated in neutralization escape variants of RRV derived by culture in the presence of these MAbs (E2 210-219 and 238-245) and an additional region of E2 172-182. Together these sites represent a conformational epitope of E2 that is informative of cellular contact sites on RRV.
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Background Resources to help the older aged (≥65 year olds) manage their medicines should probably target those in greatest need. The older-aged have many different types of living circumstances. There are different locations (urban, rural), different types of housing (in the community or in retirement villages), different living arrangements (living alone or with others), and different socioeconomic status (SES) circumstances. However, there has been limited attention to whether these living circumstances affect adherence to medicines in the ≥65 year olds. Aim of the review The aim was to determine whether comparative studies, including logistic regression studies, show that living circumstances affect adherence to medicines by the ≥65 year olds. Methods A literature search of Medline, CINAHL and the Internet (Google) was undertaken. Results Four comparative studies have not shown differences in adherence to medicines between the ≥65 year olds living in rural and urban locations, but one study shows lower adherence to medicines for osteoporosis in rural areas compared to metropolitan, and another study shows greater adherence to antihypertensive medicines in rural than urban areas. There are no comparative studies of adherence to medicines in the older-aged living in indigenous communities compared to other communities. There is conflicting evidence as to whether living alone, being unmarried, or having a low income/worth is associated with nonadherence. Preliminary studies have suggested that the older-aged living in rental, low SES retirement villages or leasehold, middle SES retirement villages have a lower adherence to medicines than those living in freehold, high SES retirement villages. Conclusions The ≥65 year olds living in rural communities may need extra help with adherence to medicines for osteoporosis. The ≥65 year olds living in rental or leasehold retirement villages may require extra assistance/resources to adhere to their medicines. Further research is needed to clarify whether living under certain living circumstances (e.g. living alone, being unmarried, low income) has an effect on adherence, and to determine whether the ≥65 year olds living in indigenous communities need assistance to be adherent to prescribed medicines.
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Background Nurses are at high risk of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). Although the prevalence of MSDs of the lower back, upper limbs, neck and shoulders have been reported previously in nursing, few studies have evaluated MSDs of the foot and ankle. This study evaluated the prevalence of foot and ankle MSDs in nurses and their relation to individual and workplace risk factors. Methods A self-administered survey incorporating the Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire (NMQ) was distributed, over a nine-week period, to all eligible nurses (n = 416) working in a paediatric hospital in Brisbane, Australia. The prevalence of MSDs for each of the NMQ body regions was determined. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the relationships between activity-limiting foot/ankle MSDs and risk factors related to the individual (age, body mass index, number of existing foot conditions, smoking history, general physical health [SF36 Physical Component Scale], footwear features) or the workplace (level of nursing position, work location, average hours worked, hours worked in previous week, time since last break from work). Results A 73% response rate was achieved with 304 nurses completing surveys, of whom 276 were females (91%). Mean age of the nurses was 37 years (±10), younger than the state average of 43 years. Foot/ankle MSDs were the most prevalent conditions experienced by nurses during the preceding seven days (43.8%, 95% CI 38.2-49.4%), the second most prevalent MSDs to impair physical activity (16.7%, 95% CI 13.0-21.3%), and the third most prevalent MSD, after lower-back and neck problems, during the preceding 12 months (55.3%, 95% CI 49.6-60.7%). Of the nurse and work characteristics investigated, obesity, poor general physical health, existing foot conditions and working in the intensive care unit emerged as statistically significant (p < 0.05) independent risk factors for activity-limiting foot/ankle MSDs. Conclusions Foot/ankle MSDs are common in paediatric hospital nurses and resulted in physical activity limitations in one out of every six nurses. We recommend targeted education programs regarding the prevention, self-management and treatment strategies for foot/ankle MSDs. Further research is needed into the impact of work location and extended shift durations on foot/ankle MSDs.
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Background In 2011, a variant of West Nile virus Kunjin strain (WNVKUN) caused an unprecedented epidemic of neurological disease in horses in southeast Australia, resulting in almost 1,000 cases and a 9% fatality rate. We investigated whether increased fitness of the virus in the primary vector, Culex annulirostris, and another potential vector, Culex australicus, contributed to the widespread nature of the outbreak. Methods Mosquitoes were exposed to infectious blood meals containing either the virus strain responsible for the outbreak, designated WNVKUN2011, or WNVKUN2009, a strain of low virulence that is typical of historical strains of this virus. WNVKUN infection in mosquito samples was detected using a fixed cell culture enzyme immunoassay and a WNVKUN- specific monoclonal antibody. Probit analysis was used to determine mosquito susceptibility to infection. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates for selected days post-exposure were compared using Fisher’s exact test. Virus titers in bodies and saliva expectorates were compared using t-tests. Results There were few significant differences between the two virus strains in the susceptibility of Cx. annulirostris to infection, the kinetics of virus replication and the ability of this mosquito species to transmit either strain. Both strains were transmitted by Cx. annulirostris for the first time on day 5 post-exposure. The highest transmission rates (proportion of mosquitoes with virus detected in saliva) observed were 68% for WNVKUN2011 on day 12 and 72% for WNVKUN2009 on day 14. On days 12 and 14 post-exposure, significantly more WNVKUN2011 than WNVKUN2009 was expectorated by infected mosquitoes. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates of the two strains were not significantly different in Culex australicus. However, transmission rates and the amount of virus expectorated were significantly lower in Cx. australicus than Cx. annulirostris. Conclusions The higher amount of WNVKUN2011 expectorated by infected mosquitoes may be an indication that this virus strain is transmitted more efficiently by Cx. annulirostris compared to other WNVKUN strains. Combined with other factors, such as a convergence of abundant mosquito and wading bird populations, and mammalian and avian feeding behaviour by Cx. annulirostris, this may have contributed to the scale of the 2011 equine epidemic.
Resumo:
Aim: To determine whether a child with chronic wet cough and poor response to at least 4 weeks of oral antibiotics is more likely to have bronchiectasis. Methods: All chest multi-detector computerised tomography (MDCT) scans at a single paediatric tertiary hospital from April 2010 to August 2012 were reviewed retrospectively so as to identify those ordered by respiratory physicians for assessment of children with a chronic wet cough. Information regarding age, sex, ethnicity, indication for imaging and the response to at least 4 weeks of antibiotics before having the scan were recorded from their charts. The data were analysed using simple and multiple logistic regression. Results: Of the 144 (87 males) eligible children, 106 (65 males, 30 Indigenous) aged 10–199 months had MDCT scan evidence of bronchiectasis. Antibiotic data were available for 129 children. Among the 105 children with persistent cough despite at least 4 weeks of antibiotics, 88 (83.8%) had bronchiectasis, while of the 24 children whose cough resolved after antibiotics, only six (25.0%) received this diagnosis (adjusted OR 20.9; 95% CI 5.36 to 81.8). Being Indigenous was also independently associated with radiographic evidence of bronchiectasis (adjusted OR 5.86; 95% CI 1.20 to 28.5). Conclusions: Further investigations including a MDCT scan should be considered in a child with a chronic wet cough that persists following 4 weeks of oral antibiotics. However, while reducing the likelihood of underlying bronchiectasis, responding well to a single prolonged course of antibiotics does not exclude this diagnosis completely.
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Background: At present there are no large scale nationally-representative studies from Sri Lanka on the prevalence and associations of Diabetic Retinopathy (DR). The present study aims to evaluate the prevalence and risk factors for DR in a community-based nationally-representative sample of adults with self-reported diabetes mellitus from Sri Lanka. Methods: A cross-sectional community-based national study among 5,000 adults (≥18 years) was conducted in Sri Lanka, using a multi-stage stratified cluster sampling technique. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. Ophthalmological evaluation of patients with ‘known’ diabetes (previously diagnosed at a government hospital or by a registered medical practitioner) was done using indirect ophthalmoscopy. A binary-logistic regression analysis was performed with ‘presence of DR’ as the dichotomous dependent variable and other independent covariates. Results: Crude prevalence of diabetes was 12.0%(n=536),of which 344 were patients with ‘known’ diabetes.Mean age was 56.4 ± 10.9 years and 37.3% were males. Prevalence of any degree of DR was 27.4% (Males-30.5%, Females-25.6%; p = 0.41). In patients with DR, majority had NPDR (93.4%), while 5.3% had maculopathy. Patients with DR had a significantly longer duration of diabetes than those without. In the binary-logistic regression analysis in all adults duration of diabetes (OR:1.07), current smoking (OR:1.67) and peripheral neuropathy (OR:1.72)all were significantly associated with DR. Conclusions: Nearly 1/3rd of Sri Lankan adults with self-reported diabetes are having retinopathy. DR was associated with diabetes duration, cigarette smoking and peripheral neuropathy. However, further prospective follow up studies are required to establish causality for identified risk factors
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Background Few studies have been undertaken to understand the employment impact in patients with colorectal cancer and none in middle-aged individuals with cancer. This study described transitions in, and key factors influencing, work participation during the 12 months following a diagnosis of colorectal cancer. Methods We enrolled 239 adults during 2010 and 2011who were employed at the time of their colorectal cancer diagnosis and were prospectively followed over 12 months. They were compared to an age- and gender-matched general population group of 717 adults from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. Data were collected using telephone and postal surveys. Primary outcomes included work participation at 12 months, changes in hours worked and time to work re-entry. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards models were undertaken. Results A significantly higher proportion of participants with colorectal cancer (27%) had stopped working at 12 months than participants from the comparison group (8%) (p < 0.001). Participants with cancer who returned to work took a median of 91 days off work (25–75 percentiles: 14–183 days). For participants with cancer, predictors of not working at 12 months included: being older, lower BMI and lower physical well-being. Factors related to delayed work re-entry included not being university-educated, working for an employer with more than 20 employees in a non-professional or managerial role, longer hospital stay, poorer perceived financial status and having or had chemotherapy. Conclusions In middle-adulthood, those working and diagnosed with colorectal cancer can expect to take around three months off work. Individuals treated with chemotherapy, without a university degree and from large employers could be targeted for specific assistance for a more timely work entry.
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Large sized power transformers are important parts of the power supply chain. These very critical networks of engineering assets are an essential base of a nation’s energy resource infrastructure. This research identifies the key factors influencing transformer normal operating conditions and predicts the asset management lifespan. Engineering asset research has developed few lifespan forecasting methods combining real-time monitoring solutions for transformer maintenance and replacement. Utilizing the rich data source from a remote terminal unit (RTU) system for sensor-data driven analysis, this research develops an innovative real-time lifespan forecasting approach applying logistic regression based on the Weibull distribution. The methodology and the implementation prototype are verified using a data series from 161 kV transformers to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy for energy sector applications. The asset stakeholders and suppliers significantly benefit from the real-time power transformer lifespan evaluation for maintenance and replacement decision support.
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OBJECTIVE: To compare sun protection by Australian-born and migrant mothers of three-year-old children. METHODS: Australian-born and migrant mothers taking part in the Environments for Healthy Living prospective birth-cohort study were asked standard questions about their child's sun protection. Children were given a skin cancer susceptibility score based on grandparents' ethnic origin. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) to measure the association of sun protection of children according to mothers' migrant status adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 613 Australian-born and 224 migrant mothers of three-year-old children were studied. Mothers who had migrated less than four years ago were more likely to allow their three-year-old to spend more than two hours outdoors between 10 am and 3 pm compared to Australian-born mothers (OR=2.80, 95%CI 1.20-6.57). Mothers from high latitude countries (>45 degrees) were more likely to apply sunscreen to their child than those from lower latitude countries (OR=3.15, 95%CI 1.03-9.61). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Strategies should aim to increase general awareness about the need for sun protection of young children, and recent migrants should be alerted to the harms of excessive sun exposure.
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Introduction The epidemic of nutrition related non-communicable diseases such as type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity has reached to epidemic portion in the Sri Lanka. However, to date, detailed data on food consumption in the Sri Lankan population is limited. The aim of this study is to identify energy and major nutrient intake among Sri Lankan adults. Methods A nationally-representative sample of adults was selected using a multi-stage random cluster sampling technique. Results Data from 463 participants (166 Males, 297 Females) were analyzed. Total energy intake was significantly higher in males (1913 ± 567 kcal/d) than females (1514 ± 458 kcal/d). However, there was no significant gender differences in the percentage of energy from carbohydrate (Male: 72.8 ± 6.4%, Female: 73.9 ± 6.7%), fat (Male: 19.9 ± 6.1%, Female: 18.5 ± 5.7%) and proteins (Male: 10.6 ± 2.1%, Female: 10.9 ± 5.6%). Conclusion The present study provides the first national estimates of energy and nutrient intake of the Sri Lankan adult population.
Resumo:
Background The objective of this study was to compare the triage category assigned to older trauma patients with younger trauma patients upon arrival to the emergency department. The focus was to examine whether older major trauma patients were less likely to be assigned an emergency triage category on arrival to the emergency department after controlling for relevant demographics, injury characteristics and injury severity. Methods This was an observational study using data from the Queensland Trauma Registry. All trauma patients aged 15 years and older who presented to contributing hospitals between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2009 with an Injury Severity Score (ISS)>15 were included. Logistic regression analysis examined the odds of assignment to emergency (Australasian Triage Scale (ATS) 1 or 2) versus urgent (ATS 3–5) treatment for patients across various age categories after adjustment for relevant demographics, injury characteristics and injury severity. Results The study used data on 6923 patients with a median (IQR) age of 43 (26–62) years and a mortality of 11.4% (95% CI 10.7% to 12.2%). Compared with individuals aged 15–34, the adjusted odds of being assigned an ATS category 1 or 2 were 30% lower (OR=0.68, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.81) for individuals aged 55–75 years and were 50% lower (OR=0.46, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.56) for individuals aged 75 years or older. Conclusions Among patients with an ISS>15, older major trauma patients were less likely to be assigned an emergency triage category compared with younger patients. This suggests that the elderly may be undertriaged and provides a potential area of study for reducing mortality and morbidity in older
Resumo:
We studied the community prevalence, patterns and predictors of hypertension in a large sub-population of South Asian adults with a view of identifying differential risk factors. Data were collected between years 2005-2006 and 5000 adults were invited for the study. The sample size was 4485, and about 39.5% were males. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were 127.1 ± 19.8 mmHg and 75.4 ± 11.3 mmHg, respectively. Age-adjusted prevalence in all adults, males and females was 23.7%, 23.4% and 23.8%, respectively. Urban adults had a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension than rural adults. In the binary logistic-regression analysis, male gender (OR: 1.2), increasing age, Sri Lankan Moor ethnicity (OR: 1.6), physical inactivity (OR: 1.7), presence of diabetes (OR: 2.2) and central obesity (OR: 2.3) all were significantly associated with hypertension. In conclusion, nearly one-third of the Sri Lankan adult population is hypertensive. Hence, public health initiatives should encourage healthier lifestyles with emphasis on preventing obesity and increasing physical activity.
Resumo:
Objective Risk scores and accelerated diagnostic protocols can identify chest pain patients with low risk of major adverse cardiac event who could be discharged early from the ED, saving time and costs. We aimed to derive and validate a chest pain score and accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) that could safely increase the proportion of patients suitable for early discharge. Methods Logistic regression identified statistical predictors for major adverse cardiac events in a derivation cohort. Statistical coefficients were converted to whole numbers to create a score. Clinician feedback was used to improve the clinical plausibility and the usability of the final score (Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score [EDACS]). EDACS was combined with electrocardiogram results and troponin results at 0 and 2 h to develop an ADP (EDACS-ADP). The score and EDACS-ADP were validated and tested for reproducibility in separate cohorts of patients. Results In the derivation (n = 1974) and validation (n = 608) cohorts, the EDACS-ADP classified 42.2% (sensitivity 99.0%, specificity 49.9%) and 51.3% (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 59.0%) as low risk of major adverse cardiac events, respectively. The intra-class correlation coefficient for categorisation of patients as low risk was 0.87. Conclusion The EDACS-ADP identified approximately half of the patients presenting to the ED with possible cardiac chest pain as having low risk of short-term major adverse cardiac events, with high sensitivity. This is a significant improvement on similar, previously reported protocols. The EDACS-ADP is reproducible and has the potential to make considerable cost reductions to health systems.
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Background This paper examines changing patterns in the utilisation and geographic access to health services in Great Britain using National Travel Survey data (1985-2012). The National Travel Survey (NTS) is a series of household surveys designed to provide data on personal travel and monitor changes in travel behaviour over time. The utilisation rate was derived using the proportion of journeys made to access health services. Geographic access was analysed by separating the concept into its accessibility and mobility dimensions. Methods Variables from the PSU, households, and individuals datasets were used as explanatory variables. Whereas, variables extracted from the journeys dataset were used as dependent variables to identify patterns of utilisation i.e. the proportion of journeys made by different groups to access health facilities in a particular journey distance or time band or by mode of transport; and geographic access to health services. A binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the utilisation rate over the different time periods between different groups. This analysis shows the Odds Ratios (ORs) for different groups making a trip to utilise health services compared to their respective counterparts. Linear multiple regression analyses were conducted to then identify patterns of change in the accessibility and mobility level. Results Analysis of the data has shown that that journey distances to health facilities were signi fi cantly shorter and also gradually reduced over the period in question for Londoners, females, those without a car or on low incomes, and older people. Although rates of utilisation of health services we re Oral Abstracts / Journal of Transport & Health 2 (2015) S5 – S63 S43 signi fi cantly lower because of longer journey times. These fi ndings indicate that the rate of utilisation of health services largely depends on mobility level although previous research studies have traditionally overlooked the mobility dimension. Conclusions This fi nding, therefore, suggests the need to improve geographic access to services together with an enhanced mobility option for disadvantaged groups in order for them to have improved levels of access to health facilities. This research has also found that the volume of car trips to health services also increased steadily over the period 1985-2012 while all other modes accounted for a smaller number of trips. However, it is dif fi cult to conclude from this research whether this increase in the volume of car trips was due to a lack of alternative transport or due to an increase in the level of car-ownership.