Semiparametric Estimation in General Repeated Measures Problems

This paper considers a wide class of semiparametric problems with a parametric part for some covariate effects and repeated evaluations of a nonparametric function. Special cases in our approach include marginal models for longitudinal/clustered data, conditional logistic regression for matched case-control studies, multivariate measurement error models, generalized linear mixed models with a semiparametric component, and many others. We propose profile-kernel and backfitting estimation methods for these problems, derive their asymptotic distributions, and show that in likelihood problems the methods are semiparametric efficient. While generally not true, with our methods profiling and backfitting are asymptotically equivalent. We also consider pseudolikelihood methods where some nuisance parameters are estimated from a different algorithm. The proposed methods are evaluated using simulation studies and applied to the Kenya hemoglobin data.

MODELING DIFFERENTIATED TREATMENT EFFECTS FOR MULTIPLE OUTCOMES DATA

Multiple outcomes data are commonly used to characterize treatment effects in medical research, for instance, multiple symptoms to characterize potential remission of a psychiatric disorder. Often either a global, i.e. symptom-invariant, treatment effect is evaluated. Such a treatment effect may over generalize the effect across the outcomes. On the other hand individual treatment effects, varying across all outcomes, are complicated to interpret, and their estimation may lose precision relative to a global summary. An effective compromise to summarize the treatment effect may be through patterns of the treatment effects, i.e. "differentiated effects." In this paper we propose a two-category model to differentiate treatment effects into two groups. A model fitting algorithm and simulation study are presented, and several methods are developed to analyze heterogeneity presenting in the treatment effects. The method is illustrated using an analysis of schizophrenia symptom data.

Modeling multilevel sleep transitional data via Poisson log-linear multilevel models

This paper proposes Poisson log-linear multilevel models to investigate population variability in sleep state transition rates. We specifically propose a Bayesian Poisson regression model that is more flexible, scalable to larger studies, and easily fit than other attempts in the literature. We further use hierarchical random effects to account for pairings of individuals and repeated measures within those individuals, as comparing diseased to non-diseased subjects while minimizing bias is of epidemiologic importance. We estimate essentially non-parametric piecewise constant hazards and smooth them, and allow for time varying covariates and segment of the night comparisons. The Bayesian Poisson regression is justified through a re-derivation of a classical algebraic likelihood equivalence of Poisson regression with a log(time) offset and survival regression assuming piecewise constant hazards. This relationship allows us to synthesize two methods currently used to analyze sleep transition phenomena: stratified multi-state proportional hazards models and log-linear models with GEE for transition counts. An example data set from the Sleep Heart Health Study is analyzed.

Comparison of amplification methods for transcriptomic analyses of low abundance prokaryotic RNA sources

Microarrays have established as instrumental for bacterial detection, identification, and genotyping as well as for transcriptomic studies. For gene expression analyses using limited numbers of bacteria (derived from in vivo or ex vivo origin, for example), RNA amplification is often required prior to labeling and hybridization onto microarrays. Evaluation of the fidelity of the amplification methods is crucial for the robustness and reproducibility of microarray results. We report here the first utilization of random primers and the highly processive Phi29 phage polymerase to amplify material for transcription profiling analyses. We compared two commercial amplification methods (GenomiPhi and MessageAmp kits) with direct reverse-transcription as the reference method, focusing on the robustness of mRNA quantification using either microarrays or quantitative RT-PCR. Both amplification methods using either poly-A tailing followed by in vitro transcription, or direct strand displacement polymerase, showed appreciable linearity. Strand displacement technique was particularly affordable compared to in vitro transcription-based (IVT) amplification methods and consisted in a single tube reaction leading to high amplification yields. Real-time measurements using low-, medium-, and highly expressed genes revealed that this simple method provided linear amplification with equivalent results in terms of relative messenger abundance as those obtained by conventional direct reverse-transcription.

Lipid profiles for antiretroviral-naive patients starting PI- and NNRTI-based therapy in the Swiss HIV cohort study

BACKGROUND: Blood lipid abnormalities in patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) have been associated with exposure to protease inhibitors (PIs), particularly ritonavir. First therapy with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) leads to relatively favourable lipid profiles. We report on medium-term lipid profiles (up to 5 years) for antiretroviral-naive patients starting NNRTI- and PI-based HAART in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Since April 2000, blood samples taken at visits scheduled every 6 months have been analysed for cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations. For 1065 antiretroviral-naive patients starting HAART after April 2000, we estimated changes in concentration over time using multivariate linear regression with adjustment for baseline covariates, use of lipid-lowering drugs and whether the sample was taken in a fasting state. RESULTS: Non-high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels increase with increasing exposure to either PI- or NNRTI-based therapy, HDL cholesterol levels increase and triglyceride levels decrease with increasing exposure to NNRTI-based therapy, whereas triglyceride levels increase with increasing exposure to PI-based therapy. Between NNRTI-based therapies, there is a slight difference in triglyceride levels, which tend to increase with increasing exposure to efavirenz and to decrease with increasing exposure to nevirapine. Of the three common PI-based therapies, nelfinavir appears to have a relatively favourable lipid profile, with little change with increasing exposure. Of the other two PI therapies, lopinavir with ritonavir has a more favourable profile than indinavir with ritonavir, with smaller increases in both non-HDL cholesterol and triglycerides and an increase in HDL cholesterol. Increasing exposure to abacavir is associated with a decrease in the level of triglycerides. CONCLUSION: In general, NNRTI-based therapy is associated with a more favourable lipid profile than PI-based therapy, but different PI-based therapies are associated with very different lipid profiles. Nelfinavir appears to have a relatively favourable lipid profile. Of the two boosted PI therapies, lopinavir appears to have a more favourable lipid profile than indinavir.

Similarities in the Subgingival Microbiota Assessed by a Curet Sampling Method at Sites With Chronic Periodontitis

Background: The goal of this study was to determine whether site-specific differences in the subgingival microbiota could be detected by the checkerboard method in subjects with periodontitis. Methods: Subjects with at least six periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PD) between 5 and 7 mm were enrolled in the study. Subgingival plaque samples were collected with sterile curets by a single-stroke procedure at six selected periodontal sites from 161 subjects (966 subgingival sites). Subgingival bacterial samples were assayed with the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method identifying 37 species. Results: Probing depths of 5, 6, and 7 mm were found at 50% (n = 483), 34% (n = 328), and 16% (n = 155) of sites, respectively. Statistical analysis failed to demonstrate differences in the sum of bacterial counts by tooth type (P = 0.18) or specific location of the sample (P = 0.78). With the exceptions of Campylobacter gracilis (P <0.001) and Actinomyces naeslundii (P <0.001), analysis by general linear model multivariate regression failed to identify subject or sample location factors as explanatory to microbiologic results. A trend of difference in bacterial load by tooth type was found for Prevotella nigrescens (P <0.01). At a cutoff level of >/=1.0 x 10(5), Porphyromonas gingivalis and Tannerella forsythia (previously T. forsythensis) were present at 48.0% to 56.3% and 46.0% to 51.2% of sampled sites, respectively. Conclusions: Given the similarities in the clinical evidence of periodontitis, the presence and levels of 37 species commonly studied in periodontitis are similar, with no differences between molar, premolar, and incisor/cuspid subgingival sites. This may facilitate microbiologic sampling strategies in subjects during periodontal therapy.

Exercise capacity and biventricular function in adult patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot

BACKGROUND: Adult patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (rTOF) often have diminished exercise capacity. The primary objective of this study was to examine whether abnormalities of biventricular function play a role in exercise limitation in patients with rTOF. METHODS: This was a retrospective review of 99 adult patients with rTOF. Right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular (LV) function were assessed echocardiographically using the myocardial performance index (MPI). Maximal oxygen consumption (VO(2) Max) was measured during a level 1 cardiopulmonary exercise test. RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 34 +/- 11 years (50% females). Although most of the patients reported good functional capacity, the peak Vo(2)max was decreased at 22 +/- 6 mL/kg per minute (66% +/- 13% predicted Vo(2)max for age and sex). The mean RV and LV MPI were 0.30 +/- 0.07 and 0.42 +/- 0.09, respectively. In the multivariate model, higher RV MPI (P = .04) and LV MPI (P = .005) values, representing impaired ventricular function, were associated with diminished Vo(2)max. There was a significant correlation between the RV and LV MPI (r = 0.54, P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Impairment of RV and LV function, as measured by MPI, is associated with diminished exercise capacity in patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot. Furthermore, there is a linear relationship between the RV and LV function suggesting that ventricular interactions are contributing to the limited exercise capacity in this group of patients. Strategies aimed at preserving biventricular function or improving adverse ventricular interactions could help to improve functional capacity in these patients.

Data-driven estimates of the number of clusters in multivariate time series

An important problem in unsupervised data clustering is how to determine the number of clusters. Here we investigate how this can be achieved in an automated way by using interrelation matrices of multivariate time series. Two nonparametric and purely data driven algorithms are expounded and compared. The first exploits the eigenvalue spectra of surrogate data, while the second employs the eigenvector components of the interrelation matrix. Compared to the first algorithm, the second approach is computationally faster and not limited to linear interrelation measures.

Low current and nadir CD4+ T-cell counts are associated with higher hepatitis C virus RNA levels in the Swiss HIV cohort study

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of CD4+ T-cell counts and other characteristics of HIV-infected individuals on hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA levels. METHODS: All HIV-HCV-coinfected Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants with available HCV RNA levels and concurrent CD4+ T-cell counts before starting HCV therapy were included. Potential predictors of HCV RNA levels were assessed by multivariate censored linear regression models that adjust for censored values. RESULTS: The study included 1,031 individuals. Low current and nadir CD4+ T-cell counts were significantly associated with higher HCV RNA levels (P = 0.004 and 0.001, respectively). In individuals with current CD4+ T-cell counts < 200/microl, median HCV RNA levels (6.22 log10 IU/ml) were +0.14 and +0.24 log10 IU/ml higher than those with CD4+ T-cell counts of 200-500/microl and > 500/microl. Based on nadir CD4+ T-cell counts, median HCV RNA levels (6.12 log10 IU/ml) in individuals with < 200/microl CD4+ T-cells were +0.06 and +0.44 log10 IU/ml higher than those with nadir T-cell counts of 200-500/microl and > 500/microl. Median HCV RNA levels were also significantly associated with HCV genotype: lower values were associated with genotype 4 and higher values with genotype 2, as compared with genotype 1. Additional significant predictors of lower HCV RNA levels were female gender and HIV transmission through male homosexual contacts. In multivariate analyses, only CD4+ T-cell counts and HCV genotype remained significant predictors of HCV RNA levels. Conclusions: Higher HCV RNA levels were associated with CD4+ T-cell depletion. This finding is in line with the crucial role of CD4+ T-cells in the control of HCV infection.

Diastolic dysfunction of the cardiac allograft and maximal exercise capacity

BACKGROUND: Peak oxygen uptake (peak Vo(2)) is an established integrative measurement of maximal exercise capacity in cardiovascular disease. After heart transplantation (HTx) peak Vo(2) remains reduced despite normal systolic left ventricular function, which highlights the relevance of diastolic function. In this study we aim to characterize the predictive significance of cardiac allograft diastolic function for peak Vo(2). METHODS: Peak Vo(2) was measured using a ramp protocol on a bicycle ergometer. Left ventricular (LV) diastolic function was assessed with tissue Doppler imaging sizing the velocity of the early (Ea) and late (Aa) apical movement of the mitral annulus, and conventional Doppler measuring early (E) and late (A) diastolic transmitral flow propagation. Correlation coefficients were calculated and linear regression models fitted. RESULTS: The post-transplant time interval of the 39 HTxs ranged from 0.4 to 20.1 years. The mean age of the recipients was 55 +/- 14 years and body mass index (BMI) was 25.4 +/- 3.9 kg/m(2). Mean LV ejection fraction was 62 +/- 4%, mean LV mass index 108 +/- 22 g/m(2) and mean peak Vo(2) 20.1 +/- 6.3 ml/kg/min. Peak Vo(2) was reduced in patients with more severe diastolic dysfunction (pseudonormal or restrictive transmitral inflow pattern), or when E/Ea was > or =10. Peak Vo(2) correlated with recipient age (r = -0.643, p < 0.001), peak heart rate (r = 0.616, p < 0.001) and BMI (r = -0.417, p = 0.008). Of all echocardiographic measurements, Ea (r = 0.561, p < 0.001) and Ea/Aa (r = 0.495, p = 0.002) correlated best. Multivariate analysis identified age, heart rate, BMI and Ea/Aa as independent predictors of peak Vo(2). CONCLUSIONS: Diastolic dysfunction is relevant for the limitation of maximal exercise capacity after HTx.

Trigger activity more than three years after left atrial linear ablation without pulmonary vein isolation in patients with atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to analyze trigger activity in the long-term follow-up after left atrial (LA) linear ablation. BACKGROUND Interventional strategies for curative treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF) are targeted at the triggers and/or the maintaining substrate. After substrate modification using nonisolating linear lesions, the activity of triggers is unknown. METHODS With the LA linear lesion concept, 129 patients were treated using intraoperative ablation with minimal invasive surgical techniques. Contiguous radiofrequency energy-induced lesion lines involving the mitral annulus and the orifices of the pulmonary veins without isolation were placed under direct vision. RESULTS After a mean follow-up of 3.6 +/- 0.4 years, atrial ectopy, atrial runs, and reoccurrence of AF episodes were analyzed by digital 7-day electrocardiograms in 30 patients. Atrial ectopy was present in all patients. Atrial runs were present in 25 of 30 patients (83%), with a median number of 9 runs per patient/week (range 1 to 321) and a median duration of 1.2 s/run (range 0.7 to 25), without a significant difference in atrial ectopy and atrial runs between patients with former paroxysmal (n = 17) or persistent AF (n = 13). Overall, 87% of all patients were completely free from AF without antiarrhythmic drugs. CONCLUSIONS A detailed rhythm analysis late after specific LA linear lesion ablation shows that trigger activity remains relatively frequent but short and does not induce AF episodes in most patients. The long-term success rate of this concept is high in patients with paroxysmal or persistent AF.

Time courses and quantitative analysis of atrial fibrillation episode number and duration after circular plus linear left atrial lesions: trigger elimination or substrate modification: early or delayed cure?

OBJECTIVES We sought to analyze the time course of atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes before and after circular plus linear left atrial ablation and the percentage of patients with complete freedom from AF after ablation by using serial seven-day electrocardiograms (ECGs). BACKGROUND The curative treatment of AF targets the pathophysiological corner stones of AF (i.e., the initiating triggers and/or the perpetuation of AF). The pathophysiological complexity of both may not result in an "all-or-nothing" response but may modify number and duration of AF episodes. METHODS In patients with highly symptomatic AF, circular plus linear ablation lesions were placed around the left and right pulmonary veins, between the two circles, and from the left circle to the mitral annulus using the electroanatomic mapping system. Repetitive continuous 7-day ECGs administered before and after catheter ablation were used for rhythm follow-up. RESULTS In 100 patients with paroxysmal (n = 80) and persistent (n = 20) AF, relative duration of time spent in AF significantly decreased over time (35 +/- 37% before ablation, 26 +/- 41% directly after ablation, and 10 +/- 22% after 12 months). Freedom from AF stepwise increased in patients with paroxysmal AF and after 12 months measured at 88% or 74% depending on whether 24-h ECG or 7-day ECG was used. Complete pulmonary vein isolation was demonstrated in <20% of the circular lesions. CONCLUSIONS The results obtained in patients with AF treated with circular plus linear left atrial lesions strongly indicate that substrate modification is the main underlying pathophysiologic mechanism and that it results in a delayed cure instead of an immediate cure.