The Importance of Scale for Spatial-confounding Bias and Precision of Spatial Regression Estimators

Increasingly, regression models are used when residuals are spatially correlated. Prominent examples include studies in environmental epidemiology to understand the chronic health effects of pollutants. I consider the effects of residual spatial structure on the bias and precision of regression coefficients, developing a simple framework in which to understand the key issues and derive informative analytic results. When the spatial residual is induced by an unmeasured confounder, regression models with spatial random effects and closely-related models such as kriging and penalized splines are biased, even when the residual variance components are known. Analytic and simulation results show how the bias depends on the spatial scales of the covariate and the residual; bias is reduced only when there is variation in the covariate at a scale smaller than the scale of the unmeasured confounding. I also discuss how the scales of the residual and the covariate affect efficiency and uncertainty estimation when the residuals can be considered independent of the covariate. In an application on the association between black carbon particulate matter air pollution and birth weight, controlling for large-scale spatial variation appears to reduce bias from unmeasured confounders, while increasing uncertainty in the estimated pollution effect.

A distributed, semiotic-inductive and human-Oriented approach to web-scale knowledge retrieval

Web-scale knowledge retrieval can be enabled by distributed information retrieval, clustering Web clients to a large-scale computing infrastructure for knowledge discovery from Web documents. Based on this infrastructure, we propose to apply semiotic (i.e., sub-syntactical) and inductive (i.e., probabilistic) methods for inferring concept associations in human knowledge. These associations can be combined to form a fuzzy (i.e.,gradual) semantic net representing a map of the knowledge in the Web. Thus, we propose to provide interactive visualizations of these cognitive concept maps to end users, who can browse and search the Web in a human-oriented, visual, and associative interface.

Seismic anisotropy in the Morcles nappe shear zone: Implications for seismic imaging of crustal scale shear zones

Microstructures and textures of calcite mylonites from the Morcles nappe large-scale shear zone in southwestern Switzerland develop principally as a function of 1) extrinsic physical parameters including temperature, stress, strain, strain rate and 2) intrinsic parameters, such as mineral composition. We collected rock samples at a single location from this shear zone, on which laboratory ultrasonic velocities, texture and microstructures were investigated and quantified. The samples had different concentration of secondary mineral phases (< 5 up to 40 vol.%). Measured seismic P wave anisotropy ranges from 6.5% for polyphase mylonites (~ 40 vol.%) to 18.4% in mylonites with < 5 vol.% secondary phases. Texture strength of calcite is the main factor governing the seismic P wave anisotropy. Measured S wave splitting is generally highest in the foliation plane, but its origin is more difficult to explain solely by calcite texture. Additional texture measurements were made on calcite mylonites with low concentration of secondary phases (≤ 10 vol.%) along the metamorphic gradient of the shear zone (15 km distance). A systematic increase in texture strength is observed moving from the frontal part of the shear zone (anchimetamorphism; 280 °C) to the higher temperature, basal part (greenschist facies; 350–400 °C). Calculated P wave velocities become increasingly anisotropic towards the high-strain part of the nappe, from an average of 5.8% in the frontal part to 13.2% in the root of the basal part. Secondary phases raise an additional complexity, and may act either to increase or decrease seismic anisotropy of shear zone mylonites. In light of our findings we reinterpret the origin of some seismically reflective layers in the Grône–Zweisimmen line in southwestern Switzerland (PNR20 Swiss National Research Program). We hypothesize that reflections originate in part from the lateral variation in textural and microstructural arrangement of calcite mylonites in shear zones.

Neutrino physics with multi-ton scale liquid xenon detectors

We study the sensitivity of large-scale xenon detectors to low-energy solar neutrinos, to coherent neutrino-nucleus scattering and to neutrinoless double beta decay. As a concrete example, we consider the xenon part of the proposed DARWIN (Dark Matter WIMP Search with Noble Liquids) experiment. We perform detailed Monte Carlo simulations of the expected backgrounds, considering realistic energy resolutions and thresholds in the detector. In a low-energy window of 2–30 keV, where the sensitivity to solar pp and 7Be-neutrinos is highest, an integrated pp-neutrino rate of 5900 events can be reached in a fiducial mass of 14 tons of natural xenon, after 5 years of data. The pp-neutrino flux could thus be measured with a statistical uncertainty around 1%, reaching the precision of solar model predictions. These low-energy solar neutrinos will be the limiting background to the dark matter search channel for WIMP-nucleon cross sections below ~2X 10-48 cm2 and WIMP masses around 50 GeV c 2, for an assumed 99.5% rejection of electronic recoils due to elastic neutrino-electron scatters. Nuclear recoils from coherent scattering of solar neutrinos will limit the sensitivity to WIMP masses below ~6 GeV c-2 to cross sections above ~4X10-45cm2. DARWIN could reach a competitive half-life sensitivity of 5.6X1026 y to the neutrinoless double beta decay of 136Xe after 5 years of data, using 6 tons of natural xenon in the central detector region.

Millennial to orbital-scale variations of drought intensity in the Eastern Mediterranean

Millennial to orbital-scale rainfall changes in the Mediterranean region and corresponding variations in vegetation patterns were the result of large-scale atmospheric reorganizations. In spite of recent efforts to reconstruct this variability using a range of proxy archives, the underlying physical mechanisms have remained elusive. Through the analysis of a new high-resolution sedimentary section from Lake Van (Turkey) along with climate modeling experiments, we identify massive droughts in the Eastern Med- iterranean for the past four glacial cycles, which have a pervasive link with known intervals of enhanced North Atlantic glacial iceberg calving, weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Dansgaard-Oeschger cold conditions. On orbital timescales, the topographic effect of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and periods with minimum insolation seasonality further exacerbated drought intensities by suppressing both summer and winter precipitation.

Biotic homogenization can decrease landscape-scale forest multifunctionality

Many experiments have shown that local biodiversity loss impairs the ability of ecosystems to maintain multiple ecosystem functions at high levels (multifunctionality). In contrast, the role of biodiversity in driving ecosystem multifunctionality at landscape scales remains unresolved. We used a comprehensive pan-European dataset, including 16 ecosystem functions measured in 209 forest plots across six European countries, and performed simulations to investigate how local plot-scale richness of tree species (α-diversity) and their turnover between plots (β-diversity) are related to landscape-scale multifunctionality. After accounting for variation in environmental conditions, we found that relationships between α-diversity and landscape-scale multifunctionality varied from positive to negative depending on the multifunctionality metric used. In contrast, when significant, relationships between β-diversity and landscape-scale multifunctionality were always positive, because a high spatial turnover in species composition was closely related to a high spatial turnover in functions that were supported at high levels. Our findings have major implications for forest management and indicate that biotic homogenization can have previously unrecognized and negative consequences for large-scale ecosystem multifunctionality.

Flow separation and roughness lengths over large bedforms in a tidal environment

This study characterises the shape of the flow separation zone (FSZ) and wake region over large asymmetric bedforms under tidal flow conditions. High resolution bathymetry, flow velocity and turbulence data were measured along two parallel transects in a tidal channel covered with bedforms. The field data are used to verify the applicability of a numerical model for a systematic study using the Delft3D modelling system and test the model sensitivity to roughness length. Three experiments are then conducted to investigate how the FSZ size and wake extent vary depending on tidally-varying flow conditions, water levels and bathymetry. During the ebb, a large FSZ occurs over the steep lee side of each bedform. During the flood, no flow separation develops over the bedforms having a flat crest; however, a small FSZ is observed over the steepest part of the crest of some bedforms, where the slope is locally up to 15°. Over a given bedform morphology and constant water levels, no FSZ occurs for velocity magnitudes smaller than 0.1 m s**-1; as the flow accelerates, the FSZ reaches a stable size for velocity magnitudes greater than 0.4 m s**-1. The shape of the FSZ is not influenced by changes in water levels. On the other hand, variations in bed morphology, as recorded from the high-resolution bathymetry collected during the tidal cycle, influence the size and position of the FSZ: a FSZ develops only when the maximum lee side slope over a horizontal distance of 5 m is greater than 10°. The height and length of the wake region are related to the length of the FSZ. The total roughness along the transect lines is an order of magnitude larger during the ebb than during the flood due to flow direction in relation to bedform asymmetry: during the ebb, roughness is created by the large bedforms because a FSZ and wake develops over the steep lee side. The results add to the understanding of hydrodynamics of natural bedforms in a tidal environment and may be used to better parameterise small-scale processes in large-scale studies.

Holocene millenial-scale productivity record in the Mediterranean Sea

The calcareous nannofossil assemblages of Ocean Drilling Program Hole 963D from the central Mediterranean Sea have been investigated to document oceanographic changes in surface waters. The studied site is located in an area sensitive to large-scale atmospheric and climatic systems and to high- and low-latitude climate connection. It is characterized by a high sedimentation rate (the achieved mean sampling resolution is <70 years) that allowed the Sicily Channel environmental changes to be examined in great detail over the last 12 ka BP. We focused on the species Florisphaera profunda that lives in the lower photic zone. Its distribution pattern shows repeated abundance fluctuations of about 10-15%. Such variations could be related to different primary production levels, given that the study of the distribution of this species on the Sicily Channel seafloor demonstrates the significant correlation to productivity changes as provided by satellite imagery. Productivity variations were quantitatively estimated and were interpreted on the basis of the relocation of the nutricline within the photic zone, led by the dynamics of the summer thermocline. Productivity changes were compared with oceanographic, atmospheric, and cosmogenic nuclide proxies. The good match with Holocene master records, as with ice-rafted detritus in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the near-1500-year periodicity suggest that the Sicily Channel environment responded to worldwide climate anomalies. Enhanced Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, which has been reported as one of the most important forcing mechanisms for Holocene coolings in previous Mediterranean studies, had a remarkable impact on the water column dynamics of the Sicily Channel.

Gravity mapping in the southern Weddell Sea region, Antarctica (Scale 1:2 000 000)

New maps of free-air and the Bouguer gravity anomalies on the Weddell Sea sector (70-81° S, 6-75° W) of Antarctica are presented. These maps are based on the first computer compilation of available gravity data collected by ''Sevmorgeologia'' in 1976-89 in the southern Weddell Sea and adjacent coasts of western Dronning Maud Land (WDML) and Coats Land. The accomplished gravity studies comprise airborne observations with a line spacing of about 20 km and conventional measurements at over-the-ice points, which were spaced at 10-30 km and supplemented by seismic soundings. Hence, anomalies on the maps represent mainly large-scale and deep crustal features. The dominant feature in free-air gravity map is a large dipolar gravity anomaly stretching along the continental margin. Following the major grain of seabed morphology this shelf-edge/slope anomaly (SESA) is clearly divided into three segments characterized by diverse anomaly amplitudes, wavelengths and trends. They are associated with continental margins of different geotectonic provinces of Antarctica surrounding the Weddell Sea. Apparent distinctions in the SESA signatures are interpreted as the gravity expression of tectonic, deep crustal structure segmentation of the continental margin. The prominent gravity highs (100-140 mGal) of the shelf edge anomaly mapped along WDML are assumed to represent high-density mantle injections intruded into the middle/lower crust during initial rifting of continental breakup. Enlarged wavelengths and diminished amplitudes of the gravity anomaly westwards, along the Weddell Sea embayment (WSE) margin, reflect a widening of the continental slope and a significant increase in thickness of underlying sediment strata. Low amplitude, negative free-air anomalies in the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelves (FRIS) contrast sharply with the dominating positive anomalies offshore. This indicates a greater sedimentary thickness of the basin in this area. Crustal response to the enlarged sediment load is impressed in mostly positive features of the Bouguer gravity field observed here. Two pronounced positive Bouguer anomalies of 50-70 mGal and an average widths of 200 km dominate the Weddell Sea embayment margins towards the Antarctic Peninsula and the East Antarctic craton. They correlate well with very deep seabed troughs (> 1000 m below sea level). The gravity highs are most likely caused by a shallow upper mantle underneath graben-rift structures evolved at the margins of the WSE basin. A regional zone (> 100 km in width) of the prominent Bouguer and free-air negative anomalies (-40 to -60 mGal) adjacent Coats Land to the north of the ice shelf edge may indicate the presence of the thick old cratonic crust far offshore beneath the Weddell Sea Embayment.

How did the crisis affect small and medium-sized enterprises? -- from a field study of the metal-working industry in Java

This paper focuses on the impact of Indonesia's economic crisis on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It shows how the performance of SMEs during the crisis varied widely even in the same industrial subsector, and found that the factors most affecting performance have been market orientation and the linkages that the SMEs have formed with the buyers of their products. Well-performing SMEs were found to have utilized putting-out linkages with wholesalers which enabled them to switch to products having better markets. On the other hand, the SMEs which had subcontracting linkages with assemblers or contracting linkages with user-factories (with the exception of SMEs having export-oriented linkages) suffered badly in the crisis because of specificity of products with little room for switching. The paper also found that exposure to debt due to borrowing for investment has been another factor affecting performance, but that enterprise size has had no linear correlation with performance.

Explaining the Persistence of State-ownership in China

In the recent decade China witnessed an upsurge of privatization of small and medium state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In contrast to the consequent sharp reduction in the number of firms, however, the estimated share of broadly-defined SOEs that includes limited liabilities companies controlled by the State has shown virtually no sign of decline. We explain the backgrounds of this seemingly paradoxical persistence of state-ownership by looking into two distinctive types of large SOEs: traditional SOEs that remain dominant in oligopolistic industries and manager-controlled SOEs surviving in competitive industries. The two types exemplify several factors constraining further progress of SOE reform such as, financing the costs of restructuring, redefining the role of the State as the single dominant shareholder, and balancing the interests of the State and managers as entrepreneurs. Sorting these issues out will take time, which means that instabilities associated with state corporate ownership will remain in place in the foreseeable future in China.

Executive Managers in Peru's Family Businesses

As in many other developing countries, family businesses are major players in the Peruvian economy. Despite their growth into large-scale groups spanning a wide range of businesses, the owner families still have strong control over their ownership and management. However, Peru's liberal economic reforms in the 1990s brought intense competition into the national market. Not only have these family businesses been forced to compete against large-scale foreign capital that entered the national market through the privatization of state enterprises, but also against cheap goods imported from foreign countries. In order to compete, family businesses have had to move beyond the limited human resources available within the family. The advancement within owner families of new generations with better education and training together with the promotion to top managerial positions of professional salaried managers from outside the family are some of the measures owner families are taking to overcome their human resource limitations.

Unlocking the Potential of Zambian Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises "Learning from the international best practices - the Southeast Asian Experience"

This paper examines the SMEs performance in Zambia and attempts to identify some practical lessons that Zambia can learn from Southeast Asian countries (with reference to Malaysia) in order to facilitate industrial development through unlocking the potential of its SMEs sector. Malaysia and Zambia were at the same level of economic development as evidenced by similar per capita incomes but Zambia has remained behind economically and its manufacturing sector has stagnated as if both countries did not have similar initial endowments. It therefore, becomes imperative that Zambia learns from such countries on how they managed to take-off economically with a focus on SME development. Training (education), research & development, market availability and technological advancement through establishment of industrial linkages coupled with cluster formation were some of the outstanding strategies identified that Zambia could use as a “key” to unlock its SMEs’ potential as it strives to meet the UN MDGs in particular halving its poverty levels by 2015 and also realizing its vision of becoming a middle income earner by 2030.

Financing Small and Medium Enterprises in Myanmar

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) share the biggest part in Myanmar economy in terms of number, contribution to employment, output, and investment. Myanmar economic growth is thus totally dependent on the development of SMEs in the private sector. Today, the role of SMEs has become more vital in strengthening national competitive advantage and the speedy economic integration into the ASEAN region. However, studies show that SMEs have to deal with a number of constraints that hinder their development potential, such as the shortage in power supply, unavailability of long-term credit from external sources and many others. Among them, the financing problem of SMEs is one of the biggest constraints. Such is deeply rooted in demand and supply issues, macroeconomic fundamentals, and lending infrastructure of the country. The government’s policy towards SMEs could also lead to insufficient support for the SMEs. Thus, focusing on SMEs and private sector development as a viable strategy for industrialization and economic development of the country is a fundamental requirement for SME development. This paper recommends policies for stabilizing macro economic fundamentals, improving lending infrastructures of the country and improving demand- and supply-side conditions from the SMEs financing perspective in order to provide a more accessible financing for SMEs and to contribute in the overall development of SMEs in Myanmar thereby to sharpen national competitive advantage in the age of speedy economic integration.

The size distribution of all Cambodian establishments

This paper presents empirical evidence on the size distribution of all Cambodian establishments in the nonfarm sector for 2009. Small- and large-scale establishments account for the largest share of employment, pointing to a “missing middle” that is commonly observed in developing countries. The analysis provides little evidence for Zipf’s law because Cambodian industry is characterized by a more dense mass of small establishments than the Zipf distribution would predict.