Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Endoscopic resection of laryngeal and tracheal lesions using the microdebrider

CONCLUSION: Endoscopic resection of laryngeal and tracheal lesions using the microdebrider is a safe, accurate and reliable method. OBJECTIVE: The microdebrider is an important tool for endoscopic nasal and sinus surgery and over the last few years a powered blade with a long shaft has been developed for endoscopic laryngeal and tracheal surgery. The aim of this non-randomized prospective study was to determine the advantages and disadvantages of the microdebrider for treating patients with different laryngeal and tracheal pathologies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The laryngeal microdebrider was used under endoscopic control in 37 patients. In 29 cases a benign laryngeal lesion was removed endoscopically. In four patients debulking of a malignant obstructive endolaryngeal tumor was performed in order to avoid a tracheotomy. In four cases a bulky obstructing endotracheal lesion was removed. RESULTS: All laryngotracheal lesions could be removed, and this was facilitated by the use of angled rigid telescopes and the laryngeal blade. No traumatic lesions to normal laryngeal tissue occurred as a result of use of the microdebrider and no postoperative endolaryngeal bleeding was observed. The histological diagnosis of the biopsies taken with the microdebrider was accurate in every case. In three of the four cases with obstructive laryngeal malignancies, a tracheotomy was avoided until definitive therapy was undertaken. Normal breathing was restored in all patients with endotracheal lesions.

Rapid and reliable genotyping of polymorphic loci modifying correct splicing of CFTR pre-mRNA using mass spectrometry

We describe a fast and unambiguous method for haplotyping the (TG)mTn repeat in IVS8 and determining three other single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in exons 10, 14a and 24 in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene affecting correct splicing of the CFTR pre-mRNA using primer extension and mass spectrometry. The diagnostic products are generated by primer extension (PEX) reactions, which require a single detection primer complementary to a region downstream of a target strand's variable site. On addition of a polymerase and an appropriate mixture of dNTP's and 2', 3'-dideoxynucleotide triphosphates (ddNTP's), the primer is extended through the mutation region until the first ddNTP is incorporated and the mass of the extension products determines the composition of the variable site. Analysis of patient DNA assigned the correct and unambiguous haplotype for the (TG)mTn repeat in intron 8 of the CFTR gene. Additional crucial SNPs influencing correct splicing in exon 10, 14 and 24 can easily be detected by biplexing the assay to genotype allelic variants important for correct splicing of the CFTR pre-mRNA. Different PEX reactions with subsequent mass spectrometry generate sufficient data, to enable unambiguous and easy haplotyping of the (TG)mTn repeat in the CFTR gene. The method can be easily extended to the inclusion of additional SNPs of interest by biplexing some of the PEX reactions. All experimental steps required for PEX are amenable to the high degree of automation desirable for a high-throughput diagnostic setting, facilitating the work of clinicians involved in the diagnosis of non-classic cystic fibrosis.

Opportunistic and systematic screening for chlamydia: a study of consultations by young adults in general practice

BACKGROUND: Opportunistic screening for genital chlamydia infection is being introduced in England, but evidence for the effectiveness of this approach is lacking. There are insufficient data about young peoples' use of primary care services to determine the potential coverage of opportunistic screening in comparison with a systematic population-based approach. AIM: To estimate use of primary care services by young men and women; to compare potential coverage of opportunistic chlamydia screening with a systematic postal approach. DESIGN OF STUDY: Population based cross-sectional study. SETTING: Twenty-seven general practices around Bristol and Birmingham. METHOD: A random sample of patients aged 16-24 years were posted a chlamydia screening pack. We collected details of face-to-face consultations from general practice records. Survival and person-time methods were used to estimate the cumulative probability of attending general practice in 1 year and the coverage achieved by opportunistic and systematic postal chlamydia screening. RESULTS: Of 12 973 eligible patients, an estimated 60.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 58.3 to 62.5%) of men and 75.3% (73.7 to 76.9%) of women aged 16-24 years attended their practice at least once in a 1-year period. During this period, an estimated 21.3% of patients would not attend their general practice but would be reached by postal screening, 9.2% would not receive a postal invitation but would attend their practice, and 11.8% would be missed by both methods. CONCLUSIONS: Opportunistic and population-based approaches to chlamydia screening would both fail to contact a substantial minority of the target group, if used alone. A pragmatic approach combining both strategies might achieve higher coverage.

Initial clinical experience with the 4-F self-expanding XPERT stent system for infrapopliteal treatment of patients with severe claudication and critical limb ischemia

PURPOSE: To evaluate the primary success and short-term patency associated with a new 4-F sheath-compatible self-expanding nitinol stent after failed conventional angioplasty of distal popliteal and infrapopliteal lesions in severe lifestyle-limiting claudication (LLC) and chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between May 2003 and July 2005, 35 patients with Rutherford category 3-5 disease (16 patients with CLI, 19 patients with LLC) underwent percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) and stent implantation. Indications for stent placement were residual stenosis, flow-limiting dissections, or elastic recoil after PTA. Before and after the intervention and during the 6-month follow-up, clinical investigation, color-flow and duplex Doppler ultrasonography, and digital subtraction angiography were performed. Technical success, primary patency at 6 months, clinical improvement as defined by Rutherford with clinical and hemodynamic measures, and complications were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 22 patients underwent distal popliteal artery stent placement and 13 underwent tibioperoneal artery stent placement. Stent implantation was successfully performed in all patients. After stent placement, the primary cumulative patency rate for the study group at 6 months was 82%. The mean resting ankle-brachial index at baseline was 0.50 +/- 0.16 and significantly increased to 0.90 +/- 0.17 at 12-24 hours after intervention and 0.82 +/- 0.24 at latest follow-up (P < .001 for both). The sustained clinical improvement rate was 80% at the 6-month follow-up. The 6-month limb salvage rate regarding major amputation was 100%. The rate of major complications was 17%. CONCLUSIONS: Infrapopliteal application of the new nitinol stent is a safe, feasible, and effective method with good short-term patency rate in the treatment of severe LLC and chronic CLI.

Application of headspace solid phase microextraction to qualitative and quantitative analysis of tobacco additives in cigarettes

Cigarettes may contain up to 10% by weight additives which are intended to make them more attractive. A fast and rugged method for a cigarette-screening for additives with medium volatility was developed using automatic headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) with a 65 microm carbowax-divinylbenzene fiber and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) with standard electron impact ionisation. In three runs, each cigarette sample was extracted in closed headspace vials using basic, acidic and neutral medium containing 0.5 g NaCl or Na2SO4. Furthermore, the method was optimized for quantitative determination of 17 frequently occurring additives. The practical applicability of the method was demonstrated for cigarettes from 32 brands.

Simultaneous determination of 3-hydroxyanthranilic and cinnabarinic acid by high-performance liquid chromatography with photometric or electrochemical detection

A convenient and rapid method for the simultaneous determination by HPLC of 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid and the dimer derived by its oxidation, cinnabarinic acid, is described. Buffers or biological samples containing these two Trp metabolites were acidified to pH 2.0 and extracted with ethyl acetate with recoveries of 96.5 +/- 0.5 and 93.4 +/- 3.7% for 3-hydroxyanthranilic and cinnabarinic acid, respectively. The two compounds were separated on a reversed-phase (C18) column combined with ion-pair chromatography and detected photometrically or electrochemically. The method was applied successfully to biological systems in which formation of either 3-hydroxyanthranilic or cinnabarinic acid had been described previously. Thus, interferon-gamma-treated human peripheral blood mononuclear cells formed and released significant amounts of 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid into the culture medium and mouse liver nuclear fraction possessed high "cinnabarinic acid synthase" activity. In contrast, addition of 3-hydroxyanthranilic acid to human erythrocytes resulted in only marginal formation of cinnabarinic acid. We conclude that the method described is specific, sensitive, and suitable for the detection of the two Trp metabolites in biological systems.

[Changes in partner relationship after organ transplantation: comparison between heart, liver, and kidney transplantation]

AIM: This study was conducted to delineate partnership-relation functioning over time and specifically matched to various organs such as heart, liver, and kidney. METHOD: Prospective, paralleled case-control-study including patients and their respective partners before and one year after organ transplantation in 23 heart-transplant recipients, 19 liver-transplant patients, and 16 kidney-transplant recipients. To assess partnership functioning, the FB-Z (family assessment measure) of Cierpka and Frevert was used. Statistics included descriptive methods, correlations, and analysis of variance including the items "organ" and "time". RESULTS: Heart-transplant recipients and their partners show significant better overall measures in their partnership ratings (sum-value) in comparison to liver or kidney patients and their partners. In all patient and partner groups, except in kidney-transplant recipients a significant deterioration over time is discernible in the subscales role performance and emotionality. In respect to the item "organ" significant differences were found in overall functioning and the subscale communication where heart-transplant recipients and their partners have significant better functioning compared to kidney or liver transplant patients. In kidney patients and their partners only communication changes to the better in the time course. CONCLUSION: In any organ transplantation the two sides of the coin are important to bear in mind, the one is the live-saving act of transplantation as such, the other is the important distress in the phase before but equally after the operation, mainly in the first year where patients and their respective partners have to be followed and treated even in respect to psychosocial and marital functioning.

[Knowledge, attitude and reservations of medical students about organ transplantation: results of a survey during the first year of study]

AIM: Establish a list of first year medical students' attitudes, doubts, and knowledge in the fields of organ transplantation and donation. METHOD: Anonymized questionnaire handed out to students during class lectures. RESULTS: 183 questionnaires were distributed and 117 returned (participation: 64%). The average age of the students was 21.6 +/- 2.7 years (range 18 to 38 years); the sample included 71 women (60.7%) and 48 men (39.3%). Only 2 students (2%) were not interested in the subject of organ donation. The students knew very little of the legal aspects of organ donation and 1/4 of them thought there was even a Federal law regarding organ transplantation. When asked if they knew whether a law existed in the Canton of Berne, 44% replied yes, but only 24 (20%) knew that this is contradictory. There was no gender difference in the answers to these question. From 57 students (48%) 246 individual comments on doubts and concerns were analyzed. In this respect, the students mainly questioned whether the donor was truly dead when donation took place (n = 48), if illegal transplantation could be eliminated (n = 44) and if transplantation was truly necessary (n = 43). Some also mentioned religious/ethical doubts (n = 42). In regard to organ donation by a living individual, 27 students were concerned about the health of this donor. 20 students had doubts regarding the pressure possibly applied by family members and friends and as many voiced doubts in regard to premature diagnosis of brain death of potential donors. Only 2 students were concerned about the post-mortem presentation. 45 students (48%) indicated discomfort with the donation of certain organs. They ranked the kidney as the first organ to donate, followed by the pancreas, heart, cornea, intestine, lung and liver. CONCLUSION: The interest in organ donation and transplantation is already strong in fist year medical students in the pre-clinical stage. However, differences from lay public are not readably detectable at this stage of medical training. Adequate information could influence future physicians in their mediatory role.

Radiographic analysis of femoroacetabular impingement with Hip2Norm-reliable and validated

The purpose of this study was to validate the accuracy, consistency, and reproducibility/reliability of a new method for correction of pelvic tilt and rotation of radiographic hip parameters for pincer type of femoroacetabular impingement on an anteroposterior pelvic radiograph. Thirty cadaver hips and 100 randomized, blinded AP pelvic radiographs were used for investigation. To detect the software accuracy, the calculated femoral head coverage and classic hip parameters determined with our software were compared to reference measurements based on CT scans or conventional radiographs in a neutral orientation as gold standard. To investigate software consistency, differences among the different parameters for each cadaver pelvis were calculated when reckoned back from a random to the neutral orientation. Intra- and interobserver comparisons were used to analyze the reliability and reproducibility of all parameters. All but two parameters showed a good-to-very good accuracy with the reference measurements. No relevant systematic errors were detected in the Bland-Altman analysis. Software consistency was good-to-very good for all parameters. A good-to-very good reliability and reproducibility was found for a substantial number of the evaluated radiographic acetabular parameters. The software appears to be an accurate, consistent, reliable, and reproducible method for analysis of acetabular pathomorphologies.

Multi-node TOA-DOA cooperative LOS-NLOS localization : enabling high accuracy and reliability

This dissertation investigates high performance cooperative localization in wireless environments based on multi-node time-of-arrival (TOA) and direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimations in line-of-sight (LOS) and non-LOS (NLOS) scenarios. Here, two categories of nodes are assumed: base nodes (BNs) and target nodes (TNs). BNs are equipped with antenna arrays and capable of estimating TOA (range) and DOA (angle). TNs are equipped with Omni-directional antennas and communicate with BNs to allow BNs to localize TNs; thus, the proposed localization is maintained by BNs and TNs cooperation. First, a LOS localization method is proposed, which is based on semi-distributed multi-node TOA-DOA fusion. The proposed technique is applicable to mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs). We assume LOS is available between BNs and TNs. One BN is selected as the reference BN, and other nodes are localized in the coordinates of the reference BN. Each BN can localize TNs located in its coverage area independently. In addition, a TN might be localized by multiple BNs. High performance localization is attainable via multi-node TOA-DOA fusion. The complexity of the semi-distributed multi-node TOA-DOA fusion is low because the total computational load is distributed across all BNs. To evaluate the localization accuracy of the proposed method, we compare the proposed method with global positioning system (GPS) aided TOA (DOA) fusion, which are applicable to MANETs. The comparison criterion is the localization circular error probability (CEP). The results confirm that the proposed method is suitable for moderate scale MANETs, while GPS-aided TOA fusion is suitable for large scale MANETs. Usually, TOA and DOA of TNs are periodically estimated by BNs. Thus, Kalman filter (KF) is integrated with multi-node TOA-DOA fusion to further improve its performance. The integration of KF and multi-node TOA-DOA fusion is compared with extended-KF (EKF) when it is applied to multiple TOA-DOA estimations made by multiple BNs. The comparison depicts that it is stable (no divergence takes place) and its accuracy is slightly lower than that of the EKF, if the EKF converges. However, the EKF may diverge while the integration of KF and multi-node TOA-DOA fusion does not; thus, the reliability of the proposed method is higher. In addition, the computational complexity of the integration of KF and multi-node TOA-DOA fusion is much lower than that of EKF. In wireless environments, LOS might be obstructed. This degrades the localization reliability. Antenna arrays installed at each BN is incorporated to allow each BN to identify NLOS scenarios independently. Here, a single BN measures the phase difference across two antenna elements using a synchronized bi-receiver system, and maps it into wireless channel’s K-factor. The larger K is, the more likely the channel would be a LOS one. Next, the K-factor is incorporated to identify NLOS scenarios. The performance of this system is characterized in terms of probability of LOS and NLOS identification. The latency of the method is small. Finally, a multi-node NLOS identification and localization method is proposed to improve localization reliability. In this case, multiple BNs engage in the process of NLOS identification, shared reflectors determination and localization, and NLOS TN localization. In NLOS scenarios, when there are three or more shared reflectors, those reflectors are localized via DOA fusion, and then a TN is localized via TOA fusion based on the localization of shared reflectors.

Processing and characterization of PbSnTe-based thermoelectric materials made by mechanical alloying

The research reported in this dissertation investigates the processes required to mechanically alloy Pb1-xSnxTe and AgSbTe2 and a method of combining these two end compounds to result in (y)(AgSbTe2)–(1 - y)(Pb1-xSnxTe) thermoelectric materials for power generation applications. In general, traditional melt processing of these alloys has employed high purity materials that are subjected to time and energy intensive processes that result in highly functional material that is not easily reproducible. This research reports the development of mechanical alloying processes using commercially available 99.9% pure elemental powders in order to provide a basis for the economical production of highly functional thermoelectric materials. Though there have been reports of high and low ZT materials fabricated by both melt alloying and mechanical alloying, the processing-structure-properties-performance relationship connecting how the material is made to its resulting functionality is poorly understood. This is particularly true for mechanically alloyed material, motivating an effort to investigate bulk material within the (y)(AgSbTe2)–(1 - y)(Pb1-xSnx- Te) system using the mechanical alloying method. This research adds to the body of knowledge concerning the way in which mechanical alloying can be used to efficiently produce high ZT thermoelectric materials. The processes required to mechanically alloy elemental powders to form Pb1-xSnxTe and AgSbTe2 and to subsequently consolidate the alloyed powder is described. The composition, phases present in the alloy, volume percent, size and spacing of the phases are reported. The room temperature electronic transport properties of electrical conductivity, carrier concentration and carrier mobility are reported for each alloy and the effect of the presence of any secondary phase on the electronic transport properties is described. An mechanical mixing approach for incorporating the end compounds to result in (y)(AgSbTe2)–(1-y)(Pb1-xSnxTe) is described and when 5 vol.% AgSbTe2 was incorporated was found to form a solid solution with the Pb1-xSnxTe phase. An initial attempt to change the carrier concentration of the Pb1-xSnxTe phase was made by adding excess Te and found that the carrier density of the alloys in this work are not sensitive to excess Te. It has been demonstrated using the processing techniques reported in this research that this material system, when appropriately doped, has the potential to perform as highly functional thermoelectric material.

Air charged and microtip catheters cannot be used interchangeably for urethral pressure measurement: a prospective, single-blind, randomized trial

PURPOSE: We determined and compared urethral pressure measurements using air charged and microtip catheters in a prospective, single-blind, randomized trial. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A consecutive series of 64 women referred for urodynamic investigation underwent sequential urethral pressure measurements using an air charged and a microtip catheter in randomized order. Patients were blinded to the type and sequence of catheter used. Agreement between the 2 catheter systems was assessed using the Bland and Altman 95% limits of agreement method. RESULTS: Intraclass correlation coefficients of air charged and microtip catheters for maximum urethral closure pressure at rest were 0.97 and 0.93, and for functional profile length they were 0.9 and 0.78, respectively. Pearson's correlation coefficients and Lin's concordance coefficients of air charged and microtip catheters were r = 0.82 and rho = 0.79 for maximum urethral closure pressure at rest, and r = 0.73 and rho = 0.7 for functional profile length, respectively. When applying the Bland and Altman method, air charged catheters gave higher readings than microtip catheters for maximum urethral closure pressure at rest (mean difference 7.5 cm H(2)O) and functional profile length (mean difference 1.8 mm). There were wide 95% limits of agreement for differences in maximum urethral closure pressure at rest (-24.1 to 39 cm H(2)O) and functional profile length (-7.7 to 11.3 mm). CONCLUSIONS: For urethral pressure measurement the air charged catheter is at least as reliable as the microtip catheter and it generally gives higher readings. However, air charged and microtip catheters cannot be used interchangeably for clinical purposes because of insufficient agreement. Hence, clinicians should be aware that air charged and microtip catheters may yield completely different results, and these differences should be acknowledged during clinical decision making.

Skin Lesion Extraction And Its Application

In this thesis, I study skin lesion detection and its applications to skin cancer diagnosis. A skin lesion detection algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm is based color information and threshold. For the proposed algorithm, several color spaces are studied and the detection results are compared. Experimental results show that YUV color space can achieve the best performance. Besides, I develop a distance histogram based threshold selection method and the method is proven to be better than other adaptive threshold selection methods for color detection. Besides the detection algorithms, I also investigate GPU speed-up techniques for skin lesion extraction and the results show that GPU has potential applications in speeding-up skin lesion extraction. Based on the skin lesion detection algorithms proposed, I developed a mobile-based skin cancer diagnosis application. In this application, the user with an iPhone installed with the proposed application can use the iPhone as a diagnosis tool to find the potential skin lesions in a persons' skin and compare the skin lesions detected by the iPhone with the skin lesions stored in a database in a remote server.

Combined ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide-enhanced and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging reliably detect pelvic lymph node metastases in normal-sized nodes of bladder and prostate cancer patients

BACKGROUND: Lymph node staging of bladder or prostate cancer using conventional imaging is limited. Newer approaches such as ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) have inconsistent diagnostic accuracy and are difficult to interpret. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether combined USPIO and DW-MRI (USPIO-DW-MRI) improves staging of normal-sized lymph nodes in bladder and/or prostate cancer patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-one consecutive patients with bladder and/or prostate cancer were enrolled between May and October 2008. One patient was excluded secondary to bone metastases detected on DW-MRI with subsequent abstention from surgery. INTERVENTION: Patients preoperatively underwent 3-T MRI before and after administration of lymphotropic USPIO using conventional MRI sequences combined with DW-MRI. Surgery consisted of extended pelvic lymphadenectomy and resection of primary tumors. MEASUREMENTS: Diagnostic accuracies of the new combined USPIO-DW-MRI approach compared with the "classic" reading method evaluating USPIO images without and with DW-MRI versus histopathology were evaluated. Duration of the two reading methods was noted for each patient. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Diagnostic accuracy (90% per patient or per pelvic side) was comparable for the classic and the USPIO-DW-MRI reading method, while time of analysis with 80 min (range 45-180 min) for the classic and 13 min (range 5-90 min) for the USPIO-DW-MRI method was significantly shorter (p<0.0001). Interobserver agreement (three blinded readers) was high with a kappa value of 0.75 and 0.84, respectively. Histopathological analysis showed metastases in 26 of 802 analyzed lymph nodes (3.2%). Of these, 24 nodes (92%) were correctly diagnosed as positive on USPIO-DW-MRI. In two patients, one micrometastasis each (1.0x0.2 mm; 0.7x0.4 mm) was missed in all imaging studies. CONCLUSIONS: USPIO-DW-MRI is a fast and accurate method for detecting pelvic lymph node metastases, even in normal-sized nodes of bladder or prostate cancer patients.