"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

On univoque points for self-similar sets

Let K⊆R be the unique attractor of an iterated function system. We consider the case where K is an interval and study those elements of K with a unique coding. We prove under mild conditions that the set of points with a unique coding can be identified with a subshift of finite type. As a consequence, we can show that the set of points with a unique coding is a graph-directed self-similar set in the sense of Mauldin and Williams (1988). The theory of Mauldin and Williams then provides a method by which we can explicitly calculate the Hausdorff dimension of this set. Our algorithm can be applied generically, and our result generalises the work of Daróczy, Kátai, Kallós, Komornik and de Vries.

Seasonal patterns of viral and bacterial infections among children hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia in a tropical region

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common cause of morbidity among children. Evidence on seasonality, especially on the frequency of viral and bacterial causative agents is scarce; such information may be useful in an era of changing climate conditions worldwide. To analyze the frequency of distinct infections, meteorological indicators and seasons in children hospitalized for CAP in Salvador, Brazil, nasopharyngeal aspirate and blood were collected from 184 patients aged < 5 y over a 21-month period. Fourteen microbes were investigated and 144 (78%) cases had the aetiology established. Significant differences were found in air temperature between spring and summer (p = 0.02) or winter (p < 0.001), summer and fall (p = 0.007) or winter (p < 0.001), fall and winter (p = 0.002), and on precipitation between spring and fall (p = 0.01). Correlations were found between: overall viral infections and relative humidity (p = 0.006; r = 0.6) or precipitation (p = 0.03; r = 0.5), parainfluenza and precipitation (p = 0.02; r = -0.5), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and air temperature (p = 0.048; r = -0.4) or precipitation (p = 0.045; r = 0.4), adenovirus and precipitation (p = 0.02; r = 0.5), pneumococcus and air temperature (p = 0.04; r = -0.4), and Chlamydia trachomatis and relative humidity (p = 0.02; r = -0.5). The frequency of parainfluenza infection was highest during spring (32.1%; p = 0.005) and that of RSV infection was highest in the fall (36.4%; p < 0.001). Correlations at regular strength were found between several microbes and meteorological indicators. Parainfluenza and RSV presented marked seasonal patterns.

Procalcitonin is useful in identifying bacteraemia among children with pneumonia

Empirical antibiotic use is prescribed in managing children with pneumonia worldwide. We assessed the usefulness of procalcitonin (PCT) and interferon-alpha (IFN-alpha) in differentiating viral from bacterial pneumonia. Among 159 hospitalized children, pneumonia was diagnosed based on clinical complaints plus pulmonary infiltrate. Aetiology was investigated for 9 viruses and 4 atypical and 3 typical bacteria. PCT and IFN-alpha were measured in the serum sample collected on admission. Eight patients had bacteraemic infections, 38 had non-bacteraemic typical infections, and 19 patients had atypical bacterial infections. Viral and unknown aetiology was established in 57 (36%) and 34 (21%) cases, respectively. Three patients with bacterial infection without collected blood culture were excluded. IFN-alpha (IU/ml) was detectable in 20 (13%) cases. The difference among median PCT values of the bacteraemic (4.22; 1.56-7.56), non-bacteraemic typical bacterial (1.47; 0.24-4.07), atypical bacterial (0.18; 0.06-1.03) and only viral (0.65; 0.11-2.22) subgroups was significant (p = 0.02). PCT was >= 2 ng/ml in 52 (33%) cases. The presence of IFN-alpha was associated with PCT <2 ng/ml (90% vs. 64%, p = 0.02). The negative predictive value (95% confidence interval) of PCT >= 2 ng/ml was 95% (89-100%), 89% (78-100%), 93% (85-100%) for differentiation of bacteraemic from viral, atypical bacterial and non-bacteraemic typical bacterial infection, respectively, and 58% (49-68%) for differentiation between bacterial and viral infection. PCT may be useful in identifying bacteraemia among children hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. IFN-alpha was uncommonly detected.

Sole infection by human metapneumovirus among children with radiographically diagnosed community-acquired pneumonia in a tropical region

Background Limited information is available on the role of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) as the unique pathogen among children hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in a tropical region. Objective We aimed to describe HMPV infection among children with CAP investigating bacterial and viral co-infections. Patients and methods A prospective study was carried out in Salvador, North-East Brazil. Overall, 268 children aged <5 years hospitalized for CAP were enrolled. Human metapneumovirus RNA was detected in nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Sixteen other bacterial and viral pathogens were investigated by an expanded panel of laboratory methods. Chest X-ray taken on admission was read by an independent paediatric radiologist unaware of clinical information or the established aetiology. Results Human metapneumovirus RNA was detected in NPAs of 11 (4.1%) children, of which 4 (36%) had sole HMPV infection. The disease was significantly shorter among patients with sole HMPV infection in comparison with patients with mixed infection (4 +/- 1 versus 7 +/- 2 days, P = 0.03). Three of those four patients had alveolar infiltrates. Conclusion Sole HMPV infection was detected in children with CAP in Salvador, North-East Brazil. HMPV may play a role in the childhood CAP burden.

The role of respiratory viral infections among children hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia in a developing country

We report an investigation for 16 bacteria and viruses among 184 children hospitalized with pneumonia in Salvador, Brazil. Etiology was established in 144 (78%) cases. Viral, bacterial, and mixed infections were found in 110 (60%), 77 (42%), and 52 (28%) patients, respectively. Rhinovirus (21%) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (21%) were the most common pathogens. Our results demonstrate the importance of viral and pneumococcal infections among those patients.

Fluxos do espiritismo kardecista no Brasil: dentro e fora do continuum mediúnico

Pós-graduação em Ciências Sociais - FFC

The influence of B4C and MgB2 additions on the behavior of MgO-C bricks

Carbon-containing refractory materials have received great attention over the last years due to their importance in the steelmaking process. The oxidation of carbon present in refractory materials at temperatures above 500 degrees C is usually accompanied by the decrease of their mechanical strength and chemical resistance. Aiming to improve the oxidation resistance of carbon-oxide refractories, the use of materials known as antioxidants has been extensively studied. In this work we evaluated the performance of MgB2 and B4C antioxidants when incorporated into MgO-C bricks. We observed that the co-addition of metallic antioxidants and B4C or MgB2 leads to refractory bricks with enhanced hot modulus of rupture and resistance against oxidation and slag corrosion. However, the excessive addition of these antioxidants could impair the performance of the obtained bricks. Thus, when determining the optimum concentration of MgB2 and B4C to be added into MgO-C refractories, one must take into consideration this behavior. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd and Techna Group S.r.l. All rights reserved.

Long-term follow-up of lung and heart transplant recipients with pre-transplant malignancies

Concern regarding recurrence of pre-transplant (Tx) malignancy has disqualified patients from Tx. Because this has been poorly studied in lung and heart Tx recipients our aim was to investigate the influence of pre-Tx malignancy on post-Tx recurrence and long-term survival, focusing on pre-operative cancer-free intervals.

Dexmedetomidine versus propofol/midazolam for long-term sedation during mechanical ventilation

PURPOSE: To compare dexmedetomidine (DEX) with standard care (SC, either propofol or midazolam) for long-term sedation in terms of maintaining target sedation and length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay. METHODS: A pilot, phase III, double-blind multicenter study in randomized medical and surgical patients (n = 85) within the first 72 h of ICU stay with an expected ICU stay of >or=48 h and sedation need for >or=24 h after randomization. Patients were assigned to either DEX (

Variability in the prevalence of adult ADHD in treatment seeking substance use disorder patients: results from an international multi-center study exploring DSM-IV and DSM-5 criteria

Background: Available studies vary in their estimated prevalence of attention deficit/hyperactivity disor-der (ADHD) in substance use disorder (SUD) patients, ranging from 2 to 83%. A better understanding ofthe possible reasons for this variability and the effect of the change from DSM-IV to DSM-5 is needed.Methods: A two stage international multi-center, cross-sectional study in 10 countries, among patientsform inpatient and outpatient addiction treatment centers for alcohol and/or drug use disorder patients. Atotal of 3558 treatment seeking SUD patients were screened for adult ADHD. A subsample of 1276 subjects,both screen positive and screen negative patients, participated in a structured diagnostic interview. 5AdultsResults: Prevalence of DSM-IV and DSM-5 adult ADHD varied for DSM-IV from 5.4% (CI 95%: 2.4–8.3) forHungary to 31.3% (CI 95%:25.2–37.5) for Norway and for DSM-5 from 7.6% (CI 95%: 4.1–11.1) for Hungary to32.6% (CI 95%: 26.4–38.8) for Norway. Using the same assessment procedures in all countries and centersresulted in substantial reduction of the variability in the prevalence of adult ADHD reported in previousstudies among SUD patients (2–83% → 5.4–31.3%). The remaining variability was partly explained byprimary substance of abuse and by country (Nordic versus non-Nordic countries). Prevalence estimatesfor DSM-5 were slightly higher than for DSM-IV.Conclusions: Given the generally high prevalence of adult ADHD, all treatment seeking SUD patientsshould be screened and, after a confirmed diagnosis, treated for ADHD since the literature indicates poorprognoses of SUD in treatment seeking SUD patients with ADHD.

Psychiatric comorbidity in treatment-seeking substance use disorder patients with and without attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: results of the IASP study

Aims To determine comorbidity patterns in treatment-seeking substance use disorder (SUD) patients with and without adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), with an emphasis on subgroups defined by ADHD subtype, taking into account differences related to gender and primary substance of abuse. Design Data were obtained from the cross-sectional International ADHD in Substance use disorder Prevalence (IASP) study. Setting Forty-seven centres of SUD treatment in 10 countries. Participants A total of 1205 treatment-seeking SUD patients. Measurements Structured diagnostic assessments were used for all disorders: presence of ADHD was assessed with the Conners' Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV (CAADID), the presence of antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), major depression (MD) and (hypo)manic episode (HME) was assessed with the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview-Plus (MINI Plus), and the presence of borderline personality disorder (BPD) was assessed with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis II (SCID II). Findings The prevalence of DSM-IV adult ADHD in this SUD sample was 13.9%. ASPD [odds ratio (OR) = 2.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.8–4.2], BPD (OR = 7.0, 95% CI = 3.1–15.6 for alcohol; OR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.8–6.4 for drugs), MD in patients with alcohol as primary substance of abuse (OR = 4.1, 95% CI = 2.1–7.8) and HME (OR = 4.3, 95% CI = 2.1–8.7) were all more prevalent in ADHD+ compared with ADHD− patients (P < 0.001). These results also indicate increased levels of BPD and MD for alcohol compared with drugs as primary substance of abuse. Comorbidity patterns differed between ADHD subtypes with increased MD in the inattentive and combined subtype (P < 0.01), increased HME and ASPD in the hyperactive/impulsive (P < 0.01) and combined subtypes (P < 0.001) and increased BPD in all subtypes (P < 0.001) compared with SUD patients without ADHD. Seventy-five per cent of ADHD patients had at least one additional comorbid disorder compared with 37% of SUD patients without ADHD. Conclusions Treatment-seeking substance use disorder patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder are at a very high risk for additional externalizing disorders.