The role of competition and state aid policy in financial and monetary law

During the financial crisis, companies and lenders found themselves in distressed situations. Competition authorities across the globe had to deal with controversial issues such as the application of the failing firm defence in merger transactions as well as assessment of emergency aid granted by states. This article considers competition policy in periods of crisis, in particular the failing firm defence in merger control and its state aid policy.

Asymmetric oligopoly and foreign direct investment: implications for host-country tax-setting

We present a duopoly model with heterogeneous firms that vary in cost-efficiency, each of which can choose to serve a foreign market by either exporting or local production. We do so to analyse the effects of a host-country corporate profit tax on both the scale and composition of FDI, and find that: strategic interaction between oligopolistic firms provides for a pattern of FDI that favours cost-inefficiency to the detriment of host-country welfare; and the host-country tax rate can be optimally used to avoid such patterns of FDI and instead promote direct investment by a relatively cost-efficient firm.

Terrorism and cabinet duration

Terrorism can strengthen or weaken electoral support for ruling governments. We show in a simple model of coalition formation that, regardless of the direction of a public opinion shock, the impact of terrorism on cabinet duration is ambiguous. However, in an analysis of a data set including 2,400 cabinets in over 150 countries in the period 1970–2002, we find that terrorism, on average, shortens cabinet duration. This result is robust for a range of alternative terror measures and is present in both democratic as well as autocratic political regimes.

Location choices of multinational firms in Europe: the role of EU cohesion policy

Using data on 5509 foreign subsidiaries established in 50 regions of 8 EU countries over the period 1991–1999, we estimate a mixed logit model of the location choice of multinational firms in Europe. In particular, we focus on the role of EU Cohesion Policy in attracting foreign investors from both within and outside Europe. We find that, after controlling for the role of agglomeration economies as well as a number of other regional and country characteristics and allowing for a very flexible correlation pattern among choices, Structural and Cohesion funds allocated by the EU to laggard regions have indeed contributed to attracting multinationals. These policies as well as other determinants play a different role in the case of European investors as opposed to non-European ones.

A construção de autoridade monetária e democracia: a experiência brasileira no contexto da integração econômica em escala global

Este relatório apresenta os primeiros resultados semestrais de pesquisa junto a um grupo de cientistas políticos focando a política monetária (A construção de autoridade monetária e democracia: A experiência brasileira no contexto da integração econômica em escala global, FAPESP Processo no 2001/05568-8). Durante este primeiro semestre o trabalho de pesquisa consistiu em uma revisão geral da bibliografia sobre a política monetária e instituições na ciência política e na economia, como também a criação de novos bancos de dados sobre credito, moeda, e instituições financeiras no Brasil de 1860 a 2002 e, finalmente, o desenvolvimento e aplicação de uma pesquisa de opinião à uma amostra de 75 Deputados Federais brasileiros.

Desafios que enfrenta a ANP para regular a indústria de petróleo no Brasil depois da quebra do monopólio em 1997 ate o ano de 2005

This work is analyzing the challenges which the National Petrol Agency is facing to regulate the Petrol industry in Brazil after the Monopoly crash in the period between 1997 until 2005. Due to the necessities of adaptation of its political strategies to the rules which determine the international economic flows, Brazil was forced to use the Economic Regulation in order to control the market. The regulation established in Brazil is not indifferent to imperfect markets. Thus can be find a conflict of interests among companies, the government and consumers within this process of regulation. The established agency does not have enough autonomy for administrating a regulation. The State with its paternalism power does not allow the agency to fulfill its function for which it was established, even though its function was established by law. A regulating policy which is clearly defined will establish a strong and independent agency with a clear limitation of its competences, avoiding divergent interpretation which prioritizes investments and promotes economic development. The agency will have the challenge to regulate the companies that enter the sector, allowing the opening of the market for new initiatives of investments which contribute to the welfare of the country and breaking at the same time the monopoly that is lead by Petrobras since 1953. Combining a stable set of rules with agility in order to adapt to changes will provide the regulator with a great decision-making power. The flexibility in the regulation will improve the correcting of the rules that were set in the beginning, being more efficient, which are based on acquired experience and achieved results. The structure of the agency and the flexibility of the regulation should be orientated on the promotion of competition in order to achieve economic and social development.

Aplicação de modelos gráficos probabilísticos computacionais em economia

O objetivo deste trabalho é testar a aplicação de um modelo gráfico probabilístico, denominado genericamente de Redes Bayesianas, para desenvolver modelos computacionais que possam ser utilizados para auxiliar a compreensão de problemas e/ou na previsão de variáveis de natureza econômica. Com este propósito, escolheu-se um problema amplamente abordado na literatura e comparou-se os resultados teóricos e experimentais já consolidados com os obtidos utilizando a técnica proposta. Para tanto,foi construído um modelo para a classificação da tendência do "risco país" para o Brasil a partir de uma base de dados composta por variáveis macroeconômicas e financeiras. Como medida do risco adotou-se o EMBI+ (Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus), por ser um indicador amplamente utilizado pelo mercado.

Estímulos fiscais em um modelo estrutural para o Brasil

A atual crise econômica internacional mostrou que o combate a hiatos do produto utilizando apenas a política monetária pode não ser suficiente. Neste contexto, questões sobre a eficácia de estímulos fiscais temporários como política anticíclica foram levantadas, e adicionalmente quais estímulos fiscais seriam mais benéficos às economias. Este trabalho desenvolveu um modelo estrutural DSGE com características e calibrações para a economia brasileira. O objetivo era realizar um exercício com choques fiscais expansionistas, de modo a analisar seus multiplicadores fiscais. Os resultados sugerem que o impacto de gastos correntes do governo obteve melhor multiplicador fiscal, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo, porém teve efeitos acumulativos decrescentes. Por outro lado, o choque de diminuição da alíquota dos impostos sobre consumo obteve baixos multiplicadores fiscais a curto prazo, porém com efeitos crescentes a longo prazo, alcançando multiplicadores de longo prazo similares aos dos gastos do governo.

Desenvolvimento nacional, desenvolvimento regional e moeda: notas teóricas à luz da economia política do desenvolvimento

This work analyses the ability of National States and regions have to formulations development strategies. Redeeming the initial development concept as a conflictual process, the hypothesis is that it presents internal and external constraints, as the latter have a higher preponderance, revealed the role played by money. In this case, one can point to as sub-hypothesis that the growth models with external constraint, mainly through the balance of payments, may illustrate the fact that countries are subject to international economic interactions that limit the possibility of bringing acylating strategies well successful in overcoming backwardness. For the specific case of regions, indicates that the external constraint remains an element of embarrassment for regional development, but redeems itself the center-periphery relations in this context to discuss the role of monetary and financial system as an explanation for the disparities regional income. On the domestic front, we highlight the importance of social structures of accumulation as an element of internal cohesion necessary to achieve successful development trajectories. It points also to the importance of the State in the process rescuing some of the main theoretical contributions of the political economy of development, incorporating the concept of globalization on theoretical frameworks presented. This construction where development depends on the actions of external and internal conditions, where money plays a key role as a guideline for reflections on regional development. The attempt was to transplant our considerations on the general development to address the case of regions. Finally, we conclude by greater confidence in the hypothesis and sub-hypotheses of departure, which led to propositions of economic policies

A internacionalização das empresas espanholas

The internationalization of Spanish companies. The purpose of this article is to present the process of (late) internationalization of Spanish companies occurred between the years of 1990 and 2000, its determinants and the degree of involvement of the State in this process. We can point out some determinants in this process, such as: a fall in the profitability of the domestic market, a shrinking of the Spanish market, imminent danger of the acquisition of Spanish companies in the local market due to trade and financial openness. We conclude that this process was not fortuitous. There was a clear perception by the government that this process would not only be relevant but also necessary for the entrance of Spain in the international economic and geo-political set.