A Bayesian destructive weighted Poisson cure rate model and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this article, we propose a new Bayesian flexible cure rate survival model, which generalises the stochastic model of Klebanov et al. [Klebanov LB, Rachev ST and Yakovlev AY. A stochastic-model of radiation carcinogenesis - latent time distributions and their properties. Math Biosci 1993; 113: 51-75], and has much in common with the destructive model formulated by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)]. In our approach, the accumulated number of lesions or altered cells follows a compound weighted Poisson distribution. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model in terms of dispersion. Moreover, it possesses an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of the event of interest as it includes a destructive process of tumour cells after an initial treatment or the capacity of an individual exposed to irradiation to repair altered cells that results in cancer induction. In other words, what is recorded is only the damaged portion of the original number of altered cells not eliminated by the treatment or repaired by the repair system of an individual. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are then used to develop Bayesian inference for the proposed model. Also, some discussions on the model selection and an illustration with a cutaneous melanoma data set analysed by Rodrigues et al. [Rodrigues J, de Castro M, Balakrishnan N and Cancho VG. Destructive weighted Poisson cure rate models. Technical Report, Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos-SP. Brazil, 2009 (accepted in Lifetime Data Analysis)] are presented.

Wavelet analysis of heart rate variability related to nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy seizures

Introduction: Nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy (NFLE) is a distinct syndrome of partial epilepsy whose clinical features comprise a spectrum of paroxysmal motor manifestations of variable duration and complexity, arising from sleep. Cardiovascular changes during NFLE seizures have previously been observed, however the extent of these modifications and their relationship with seizure onset has not been analyzed in detail. Objective: Aim of present study is to evaluate NFLE seizure related changes in heart rate (HR) and in sympathetic/parasympathetic balance through wavelet analysis of HR variability (HRV). Methods: We evaluated the whole night digitally recorded video-polysomnography (VPSG) of 9 patients diagnosed with NFLE with no history of cardiac disorders and normal cardiac examinations. Events with features of NFLE seizures were selected independently by three examiners and included in the study only if a consensus was reached. Heart rate was evaluated by measuring the interval between two consecutive R-waves of QRS complexes (RRi). RRi series were digitally calculated for a period of 20 minutes, including the seizures and resampled at 10 Hz using cubic spline interpolation. A multiresolution analysis was performed (Daubechies-16 form), and the squared level specific amplitude coefficients were summed across appropriate decomposition levels in order to compute total band powers in bands of interest (LF: 0.039062 - 0.156248, HF: 0.156248 - 0.624992). A general linear model was then applied to estimate changes in RRi, LF and HF powers during three different period (Basal) (30 sec, at least 30 sec before seizure onset, during which no movements occurred and autonomic conditions resulted stationary); pre-seizure period (preSP) (10 sec preceding seizure onset) and seizure period (SP) corresponding to the clinical manifestations. For one of the patients (patient 9) three seizures associated with ictal asystole were recorded, hence he was treated separately. Results: Group analysis performed on 8 patients (41 seizures) showed that RRi remained unchanged during the preSP, while a significant tachycardia was observed in the SP. A significant increase in the LF component was instead observed during both the preSP and the SP (p<0.001) while HF component decreased only in the SP (p<0.001). For patient 9 during the preSP and in the first part of SP a significant tachycardia was observed associated with an increased sympathetic activity (increased LF absolute values and LF%). In the second part of the SP a progressive decrease in HR that gradually exceeded basal values occurred before IA. Bradycardia was associated with an increase in parasympathetic activity (increased HF absolute values and HF%) contrasted by a further increase in LF until the occurrence of IA. Conclusions: These data suggest that changes in autonomic balance toward a sympathetic prevalence always preceded clinical seizure onset in NFLE, even when HR changes were not yet evident, confirming that wavelet analysis is a sensitive technique to detect sudden variations of autonomic balance occurring during transient phenomena. Finally we demonstrated that epileptic asystole is associated with a parasympathetic hypertonus counteracted by a marked sympathetic activation.

Intrauterine instillation of diluted seminal plasma at oocyte pick-up does not increase the IVF pregnancy rate: a double-blind, placebo controlled, randomized study.

STUDY QUESTION Does intrauterine application of diluted seminal plasma (SP) at the time of ovum pick-up improve the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF treatment? SUMMARY ANSWER Intrauterine instillation of diluted SP at the time of ovum pick-up is unlikely to increase the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY SP modulates endometrial function, and sexual intercourse around the time of embryo transfer has been suggested to increase the likelihood of pregnancy. A previous randomized double-blind pilot study demonstrated a strong trend towards increased pregnancy rates following the intracervical application of undiluted SP. As this study was not conclusive and as the finding could have been confounded by sexual intercourse, the intrauterine application of diluted SP was investigated in the present trial. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A single-centre, prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, superiority trial on women undergoing IVF was conducted from April 2007 until February 2012 at the University Department of Gynaecological Endocrinology and Reproductive Medicine, Heidelberg, Germany. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The study was powered to detect an 14% increase in the clinical pregnancy rate and two sequential tests were planned using the Pocock spending function. At the first interim analysis, 279 women had been randomly assigned to intrauterine diluted SP (20% SP in saline from the patients' partner) (n = 138) or placebo (n = 141) at the time of ovum pick-up. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The clinical pregnancy rate per randomized patient was 37/138 (26.8%) in the SP group and 41/141 (29.1%) in the placebo group (difference: -2.3%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +8.2%; P = 0.69). The live birth rate per randomized patient was 28/138 (20.3%) in the SP group and 33/141 (23.4%) in the placebo group (difference: -3.1%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +6.6%; P = 0.56). It was decided to terminate the trial due to futility at the first interim analysis, at a conditional power of 62%. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The confidence interval of the difference remains wide, thus clinically relevant differences cannot reliably be excluded based on this single study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The results of this study cast doubt on the validity of the concept that SP increases endometrial receptivity and thus implantation in humans. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) Funding was provided by the department's own research facilities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER DRKS00004615.

Automatic Stabilizer Feature of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

This paper shows that countries characterized by a financial accelerator mechanism may reverse the usual finding of the literature -- flexible exchange rate regimes do a worse job of insulating open economies from external shocks. I obtain this result with a calibrated small open economy model that endogenizes foreign interest rates by linking them to the banking sector's foreign currency leverage. This relationship renders exchange rate policy more important compared to the usual exogeneity assumption. I find empirical support for this prediction using the Local Projections method. Finally, 2nd order approximation to the model finds larger welfare losses under flexible regimes.

Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure

Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market participation. Our results show that foreign exchange exposure is negatively related to derivatives market participation, and support the hedging explanation of the exchange rate exposure puzzle. This decline is especially salient in the financial sector, for bigger firms, and over longer time periods. Results are robust to using different exchange rates, a GARCH-SVAR approach to measure exchange rate exposure, and different return horizons.

Physician coding for mental illness reimbursement and the need for mental health parity

Many patients with anxiety and depression initially seek treatment from their primary care physicians. Changes in insurance coverage and current mental parity laws, make reimbursement for services a problem. This has led to a coding dilemma for physicians seeking payment for their services. This study seeks to determine first the frequency at which primary care physicians use alternative coding, and secondly, if physicians would change their coding practices, provided reimbursement was assured through changes in mental parity laws. A mail survey was sent to 260 randomly selected primary care physicians, who are family practice, internal medicine, and general practice physicians, and members of the Harris County Medical Society. The survey evaluated the physicians' demographics, the number of patients with psychiatric disorders seen by primary care physicians, the frequency with which physicians used alternative coding, and if mental parity laws changed, the rate at which physicians would use a psychiatric illness diagnosis as the primary diagnostic code. The overall response rate was 23%. Only 47 of the 59 physicians, who responded, qualified for the study and of those 45% used a psychiatric disorder to diagnose patients with a primary psychiatric disorder, 47% used a somatic/symptom disorder, and 8% used a medical diagnosis. From the physicians who would not use a psychiatric diagnosis as a primary ICD-9 code, 88% were afraid of not being reimbursed and 12% were worried about stigma or jeopardizing insurability. If payment were assured using a psychiatric diagnostic code, 81% physicians would use a psychiatric diagnosis as the primary diagnostic code. However, 19% would use an alternative diagnostic code in fear of stigmatizing and/or jeopardizing patients' insurability. Although the sample size of the study design was adequate, our survey did not have an ideal response rate, and no significant correlation was observed. However, it is evident that reimbursement for mental illness continues to be a problem for primary care physicians. The reformation of mental parity laws is necessary to ensure that patients receive mental health services and that primary care physicians are reimbursed. Despite the possibility of improved mental parity legislation, some physicians are still hesitant to assign patients with a mental illness diagnosis, due to the associated stigma, which still plays a role in today's society. ^

Grain-size distribution, sedimentation rate and x-ray fluorescence data of four sediment cores off the Senegal River estuary

Fine-grained sediment depocenters on continental shelves are of increased scientific interest since they record environmental changes sensitively. A north-south elongated mud depocenter extends along the Senegalese coast in mid-shelf position. Shallow-acoustic profiling was carried out to determine extent, geometry and internal structures of this sedimentary body. In addition, four sediment cores were retrieved with the main aim to identify how paleoclimatic signals and coastal changes have controlled the formation of this mud depocenter. A general paleoclimatic pattern in terms of fluvial input appears to be recorded in this depositional archive. Intervals characterized by high terrigenous input, high sedimentation rates and fine grain sizes occur roughly contemporaneously in all cores and are interpreted as corresponding to intensified river discharge related to more humid conditions in the hinterland. From 2750 to 1900 and from 1000 to 700 cal a BP, wetter conditions are recorded off Senegal, an observation which is in accordance with other records from NW-Africa. Nevertheless, the three employed proxies (sedimentation rate, grain size and elemental distribution) do not always display consistent inter-core patterns. Major differences between the individual core records are attributed to sediment remobilization which was linked to local hydrographic variations as well as reorganizations of the coastal system. The Senegal mud belt is a layered inhomogeneous sedimentary body deposited on an irregular erosive surface. Early Holocene deceleration in the rate of the sea-level rise could have enabled initial mud deposition on the shelf. These favorable conditions for mud deposition occur coevally with a humid period over NW-Africa, thus, high river discharge. Sedimentation started preferentially in the northern areas of the mud belt. During mid-Holocene, a marine incursion led to the formation of an embayment. Afterwards, sedimentation in the north was interrupted in association with a remarkable southward shift in the location of the active depocenter as it is reflected by the sedimentary architecture and confirmed by radiocarbon dates. These sub-recent shifts in depocenters location are caused by migrations of the Senegal River mouth. During late Holocene times, the weakening of river discharge allowed the longshore currents to build up a chain of beach barriers which have forced the river mouth to shift southwards.

Measurement of the electron neutrino charged-current interaction rate on water with the T2K ND280 π0 detector

This paper presents a measurement of the charged current interaction rate of the electron neutrino beam component of the beam above 1.5 GeV using the large fiducial mass of the T2K π0 detector. The predominant portion of the νe flux (∼85%) at these energies comes from kaon decays. The measured ratio of the observed beam interaction rate to the predicted rate in the detector with water targets filled is 0.89 ± 0.08 (stat.) ± 0.11 (sys.), and with the water targets emptied is 0.90 ± 0.09 (stat.) ± 0.13 (sys.). The ratio obtained for the interactions on water only from an event subtraction method is 0.87 ± 0.33 (stat.) ± 0.21 (sys.). This is the first measurement of the interaction rate of electron neutrinos on water, which is particularly of interest to experiments with water Cherenkov detectors.

Blind reconiliation

Information reconciliation is a crucial procedure in the classical post-processing of quantum key distribution (QKD). Poor reconciliation e?ciency, revealing more information than strictly needed, may compromise the maximum attainable distance, while poor performance of the algorithm limits the practical throughput in a QKD device. Historically, reconciliation has been mainly done using close to minimal information disclosure but heavily interactive procedures, like Cascade, or using less e?cient but also less interactive ?just one message is exchanged? procedures, like the ones based in low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes. The price to pay in the LDPC case is that good e?ciency is only attained for very long codes and in a very narrow range centered around the quantum bit error rate (QBER) that the code was designed to reconcile, thus forcing to have several codes if a broad range of QBER needs to be catered for. Real world implementations of these methods are thus very demanding, either on computational or communication resources or both, to the extent that the last generation of GHz clocked QKD systems are ?nding a bottleneck in the classical part. In order to produce compact, high performance and reliable QKD systems it would be highly desirable to remove these problems. Here we analyse the use of short-length LDPC codes in the information reconciliation context using a low interactivity, blind, protocol that avoids an a priori error rate estimation. We demonstrate that 2×103 bits length LDPC codes are suitable for blind reconciliation. Such codes are of high interest in practice, since they can be used for hardware implementations with very high throughput.

Untainted puncturing for irregular low-density parity-check codes

Puncturing is a well-known coding technique widely used for constructing rate-compatible codes. In this paper, we consider the problem of puncturing low-density parity-check codes and propose a new algorithm for intentional puncturing. The algorithm is based on the puncturing of untainted symbols, i.e. nodes with no punctured symbols within their neighboring set. It is shown that the algorithm proposed here performs better than previous proposals for a range of coding rates and short proportions of punctured symbols.

Rate-Adaptive LDPC-based key reconciliation for high performance quantum key distribution

The postprocessing or secret-key distillation process in quantum key distribution (QKD) mainly involves two well-known procedures: information reconciliation and privacy amplification. Information or key reconciliation has been customarily studied in terms of efficiency. During this, some information needs to be disclosed for reconciling discrepancies in the exchanged keys. The leakage of information is lower bounded by a theoretical limit, and is usually parameterized by the reconciliation efficiency (or inefficiency), i.e. the ratio of additional information disclosed over the Shannon limit. Most techniques for reconciling errors in QKD try to optimize this parameter. For instance, the well-known Cascade (probably the most widely used procedure for reconciling errors in QKD) was recently shown to have an average efficiency of 1.05 at the cost of a high interactivity (number of exchanged messages). Modern coding techniques, such as rate-adaptive low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes were also shown to achieve similar efficiency values exchanging only one message, or even better values with few interactivity and shorter block-length codes.

A multi-level analysis of innovation diffusion: The case of solar photovoltaic systems in Germany and the disillusion of grid parity

¿Suministrarán las fuentes de energía renovables toda la energía que el mundo necesita algún día? Algunos argumentan que sí, mientras que otros dicen que no. Sin embargo, en algunas regiones del mundo, la producción de electricidad a través de fuentes de energía renovables ya está en una etapa prometedora de desarrollo en la que su costo de generación de electricidad compite con fuentes de electricidad convencionales, como por ejemplo la paridad de red. Este logro ha sido respaldado por el aumento de la eficiencia de la tecnología, la reducción de los costos de producción y, sobre todo, los años de intervenciones políticas de apoyo financiero. La difusión de los sistemas solares fotovoltaicos (PV) en Alemania es un ejemplo relevante. Alemania no sólo es el país líder en términos de capacidad instalada de sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV) en todo el mundo, sino también uno de los países pioneros donde la paridad de red se ha logrado recientemente. No obstante, podría haber una nube en el horizonte. La tasa de difusión ha comenzado a declinar en muchas regiones. Además, las empresas solares locales – que se sabe son importantes impulsores de la difusión – han comenzado a enfrentar dificultades para manejar sus negocios. Estos acontecimientos plantean algunas preguntas importantes: ¿Es ésta una disminución temporal en la difusión? ¿Los adoptantes continuarán instalando sistemas fotovoltaicos? ¿Qué pasa con los modelos de negocio de las empresas solares locales? Con base en el caso de los sistemas fotovoltaicos en Alemania a través de un análisis multinivel y dos revisiones literarias complementarias, esta tesis doctoral extiende el debate proporcionando riqueza múltiple de datos empíricos en un conocimiento de contexto limitado. El primer análisis se basa en la perspectiva del adoptante, que explora el nivel "micro" y el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El segundo análisis es una perspectiva a nivel de empresa, que explora los modelos de negocio de las empresas y sus roles impulsores en la difusión de los sistemas fotovoltaicos. El tercero análisis es una perspectiva regional, la cual explora el nivel "meso", el proceso social que subyace a la adopción de sistemas fotovoltaicos y sus técnicas de modelado. Los resultados incluyen implicaciones tanto para académicos como políticos, no sólo sobre las innovaciones en energía renovable relativas a la paridad de red, sino también, de manera inductiva, sobre las innovaciones ambientales impulsadas por las políticas que logren la competitividad de costes. ABSTRACT Will renewable energy sources supply all of the world energy needs one day? Some argue yes, while others say no. However, in some regions of the world, the electricity production through renewable energy sources is already at a promising stage of development at which their electricity generation costs compete with conventional electricity sources’, i.e., grid parity. This achievement has been underpinned by the increase of technology efficiency, reduction of production costs and, above all, years of policy interventions of providing financial support. The diffusion of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Germany is an important frontrunner case in point. Germany is not only the top country in terms of installed PV systems’ capacity worldwide but also one of the pioneer countries where the grid parity has recently been achieved. However, there might be a cloud on the horizon. The diffusion rate has started to decline in many regions. In addition, local solar firms – which are known to be important drivers of diffusion – have started to face difficulties to run their businesses. These developments raise some important questions: Is this a temporary decline on diffusion? Will adopters continue to install PV systems? What about the business models of the local solar firms? Based on the case of PV systems in Germany through a multi-level analysis and two complementary literature reviews, this PhD Dissertation extends the debate by providing multiple wealth of empirical details in a context-limited knowledge. The first analysis is based on the adopter perspective, which explores the “micro” level and the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems. The second one is a firm-level perspective, which explores the business models of firms and their driving roles in diffusion of PV systems. The third one is a regional perspective, which explores the “meso” level, i.e., the social process underlying the adoption of PV systems and its modeling techniques. The results include implications for both scholars and policymakers, not only about renewable energy innovations at grid parity, but also in an inductive manner, about policy-driven environmental innovations that achieve the cost competiveness.

Motivators for adoption of photovoltaic systems at grid parity: A case study from Southern Germany

In some countries, photovoltaic (PV) technology is at a stage of development at which it can compete with conventional electricity sources in terms of electricity generation costs, i.e., grid parity. A case in point is Germany, where the PV market has reached a mature stage, the policy support has scaled down and the diffusion rate of PV systems has declined. This development raises a fundamental question: what are the motives to adopt PV systems at grid parity? The point of departure for the relevant literature has been on the impact of policy support, adopters and, recently, local solar companies. However, less attention has been paid to the motivators for adoption at grid parity. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the diffusion of PV systems, explaining the impact of policy measures, adopters and system suppliers. Anchored in an extensive and exploratory case study in Germany, we provide a context-specific explanation to the motivations to adopt PV systems at grid parity.

Bank rate.

Mode of access: Internet.

Finite-connectivity spin-glass phase diagrams and low-density parity check codes

We obtain phase diagrams of regular and irregular finite-connectivity spin glasses. Contact is first established between properties of the phase diagram and the performance of low-density parity check (LDPC) codes within the replica symmetric (RS) ansatz. We then study the location of the dynamical and critical transition points of these systems within the one step replica symmetry breaking theory (RSB), extending similar calculations that have been performed in the past for the Bethe spin-glass problem. We observe that the location of the dynamical transition line does change within the RSB theory, in comparison with the results obtained in the RS case. For LDPC decoding of messages transmitted over the binary erasure channel we find, at zero temperature and rate R=14, an RS critical transition point at pc 0.67 while the critical RSB transition point is located at pc 0.7450±0.0050, to be compared with the corresponding Shannon bound 1-R. For the binary symmetric channel we show that the low temperature reentrant behavior of the dynamical transition line, observed within the RS ansatz, changes its location when the RSB ansatz is employed; the dynamical transition point occurs at higher values of the channel noise. Possible practical implications to improve the performance of the state-of-the-art error correcting codes are discussed. © 2006 The American Physical Society.