Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system

Advances in weather and climate research have demonstrated the role of the stratosphere in the Earth system across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Stratospheric ozone loss has been identified as a key driver of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation trends, affecting ocean currents and carbon uptake, sea ice, and possibly even the Antarctic ice sheets. Stratospheric variability has also been shown to affect short term and seasonal forecasts, connecting the tropics and midlatitudes and guiding storm track dynamics. The two-way interactions between the stratosphere and the Earth system have motivated the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) DynVar activity to investigate the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on climate. This assessment will be made possible by two new multi-model datasets. First, roughly 10 models with a well resolved stratosphere are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), providing the first multi-model ensemble of climate simulations coupled from the stratopause to the sea floor. Second, the Stratosphere Historical Forecasting Project (SHFP) of WCRP's Climate Variability and predictability (CLIVAR) program is forming a multi-model set of seasonal hindcasts with stratosphere resolving models, revealing the impact of both stratospheric initial conditions and dynamics on intraseasonal prediction. The CMIP5 and SHFP model-data sets will offer an unprecedented opportunity to understand the role of the stratosphere in the natural and forced variability of the Earth system and to determine whether incorporating knowledge of the middle atmosphere improves seasonal forecasts and climate projections. Capsule New modeling efforts will provide unprecedented opportunities to harness our knowledge of the stratosphere to improve weather and climate prediction.

Vertical propagation of information in a middle atmosphere data assimilation system by gravity-wave drag feedbacks

The mesospheric response to the 2002 Antarctic Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is analysed using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS), where it represents a vertical propagation of information from the observations into the data-free mesosphere. The CMAM-DAS simulates a cooling in the lowest part of the mesosphere which is accomplished by resolved motions, but which is extended to the mid- to upper mesosphere by the response of the model's non-orographic gravity-wave drag parameterization to the change in zonal winds. The basic mechanism is that elucidated by Holton consisting of a net eastward wave-drag anomaly in the mesosphere during the SSW, although in this case there is a net upwelling in the polar mesosphere. Since the zonal-mean mesospheric response is shown to be predictable, this demonstrates that variations in the mesospheric state can be slaved to the lower atmosphere through gravity-wave drag.

Characterisation of the intracellular-glutamate decarboxylase system (GAD): analysis of its function, transcription and role in the acid resistance of various strains of Listeria monocytogenes

The glutamate decarboxylase (GAD) system is important for the acid resistance of Listeria monocytogenes. We previously showed that under acidic conditions, glutamate (Glt)/γ-aminobutyrate (GABA) antiport is impaired in minimal media but not in rich ones, like brain heart infusion. Here we demonstrate that this behavior is more complex and it is subject to strain and medium variation. Despite the impaired Glt/GABA antiport, cells accumulate intracellular GABA (GABA(i)) as a standard response against acid in any medium, and this occurs in all strains tested. Since these systems can occur independently of one another, we refer to them as the extracellular (GAD(e)) and intracellular (GAD(i)) systems. We show here that GAD(i) contributes to acid resistance since in a ΔgadD1D2 mutant, reduced GABA(i) accumulation coincided with a 3.2-log-unit reduction in survival at pH 3.0 compared to that of wild-type strain LO28. Among 20 different strains, the GAD(i) system was found to remove 23.11% ± 18.87% of the protons removed by the overall GAD system. Furthermore, the GAD(i) system is activated at milder pH values (4.5 to 5.0) than the GAD(e) system (pH 4.0 to 4.5), suggesting that GAD(i) is the more responsive of the two and the first line of defense against acid. Through functional genomics, we found a major role for GadD2 in the function of GAD(i), while that of GadD1 was minor. Furthermore, the transcription of the gad genes in three common reference strains (10403S, LO28, and EGD-e) during an acid challenge correlated well with their relative acid sensitivity. No transcriptional upregulation of the gadT2D2 operon, which is the most important component of the GAD system, was observed, while gadD3 transcription was the highest among all gad genes in all strains. In this study, we present a revised model for the function of the GAD system and highlight the important role of GAD(i) in the acid resistance of L. monocytogenes.

Hcp2, a secreted protein of the phytopathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato DC3000, is required for competitive fitness against bacteria and yeasts

When analysing the secretome of the plant pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato (Pst) DC3000, we identified hemolysin co-regulated protein (Hcp) as one of the secreted proteins. Hcp is assumed to be an extracellular component of the type VI secretion system (T6SS). Two copies of hcp genes are present in the Pst DC3000 genome, hcp1 (PSPTO_2539) and hcp2 (PSPTO_5435). We studied the expression patterns of hcp genes and tested the fitness of hcp knock-out mutants in host plant colonization and in inter-microbial competition. We found that the hcp2 gene is expressed, most actively at the stationary growth phase, and that the Hcp2 protein is secreted via T6SS and appears in the culture medium as covalently linked dimers. Expression of hcp2 is not induced in planta and it does not contribute to virulence or colonisation in tomato or Arabidopsis plants. Instead, hcp2 is required for survival in competition with enterobacteria and yeasts, and its function is associated with suppression of the growth of these competitors. This is the first report on bacterial T6SS-associated genes functioning in competition against yeast. Our results suggest that the T6SS of P. syringae may play an important role in bacterial fitness, allowing this plant pathogen to survive in conditions where it has to compete with other micro-organisms for resources.

An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services.

Brussels French une fois: Transfer-induced innovation or system-internal development?

In language contact studies, specific features of the contact languages are often seen to be the result of transfer (interference), but it remains difficult to disentangle the role of intra-systemic and inter-systemic factors. We propose to unravel these factors in the analysis of a feature of Brussels French which many researchers attribute to transfer from (Brussels) Dutch: the adverbial use of une fois. We compare the use of this particle in Brussels French with its occurrence in corpora of other varieties of French, including several that have not been influenced by a Germanic substrate or adstrate. A detailed analysis of the frequency of occurrence, the functions and the distribution of the particle over different syntactic positions shows that some uses of une fois can be traced back to sixteenth-century French, but that there is also ample evidence for overt and covert transfer (Mougeon and Beniak, 1991) from Brussels Dutch.

Sensitivity of an Earth system climate model to idealized radiative forcing

We diagnose forcing and climate feedbacks in benchmark sensitivity experiments with the new Met Office Hadley Centre Earth system climate model HadGEM2-ES. To identify the impact of newly-included biogeophysical and chemical processes, results are compared to a parallel set of experiments performed with these processes switched off, and different couplings with the biogeochemistry. In abrupt carbon dioxide quadrupling experiments we find that the inclusion of these processes does not alter the global climate sensitivity of the model. However, when the change in carbon dioxide is uncoupled from the vegetation, or when the model is forced with a non-carbon dioxide forcing – an increase in solar constant – new feedbacks emerge that make the climate system less sensitive to external perturbations. We identify a strong negative dust-vegetation feedback on climate change that is small in standard carbon dioxide sensitivity experiments due to the physiological/fertilization effects of carbon dioxide on plants in this model.

Market power and its effects on equilibrium in the food system

When food processors have conjectures about rival firms' responses, their profit functions can be used to estimate the degree of market power in the food system. The effects of this power are investigated analytically and through applying the results to the U.S. pork sector

Comparing hypotheses about competition in the food system

A procedure is presented for comparing hypotheses about competition that makes no parametric assumptions about cost and demand functions, can be implemented with a modicum of data, and relies on Bayesian comparisons of non-nested hypotheses. The methodology is applied to data on five of the major U.S. food industries

The researcher-farmer interface in the rice-wheat system: moving from agricultural productivity to livelihoods

This chapter explores some of the implications of adopting a research approach that focuses on people and their livelihoods in the rice-wheat system of the Indo-Gangetic Plains. We draw on information from a study undertaken by the authors in Bangladesh and then consider the transferability of our findings to other situations. We conclude that if our research is to bridge the researcher-farmer interface, ongoing technical research must be supported by research that explores how institutional, policy, and communication strategies determine livelihood outcomes. The challenge that now faces researchers is to move beyond their involvement in participatory research to understand how to facilitate a process in which they provide information and products for others to test. Building capacity at various levels for openness in sharing information and products–seeing research as a public good for all–seems to be a prerequisite for more effective dissemination of the available information and technologies.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models.

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover, composition and 5 height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, 10 and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a “random” model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global 15 vegetation models (DGVMs). SDBM reproduces observed CO2 seasonal cycles, but its simulation of independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) is too high. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the interannual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified 20 several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change 25 impacts and feedbacks.

Assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of auditory brainstem response

Abstract Background: The analysis of the Auditory Brainstem Response (ABR) is of fundamental importance to the investigation of the auditory system behaviour, though its interpretation has a subjective nature because of the manual process employed in its study and the clinical experience required for its analysis. When analysing the ABR, clinicians are often interested in the identification of ABR signal components referred to as Jewett waves. In particular, the detection and study of the time when these waves occur (i.e., the wave latency) is a practical tool for the diagnosis of disorders affecting the auditory system. Significant differences in inter-examiner results may lead to completely distinct clinical interpretations of the state of the auditory system. In this context, the aim of this research was to evaluate the inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of ABR. Methods: A total of 160 ABR data samples were collected, for four different stimulus intensity (80dBHL, 60dBHL, 40dBHL and 20dBHL), from 10 normal-hearing subjects (5 men and 5 women, from 20 to 52 years). Four examiners with expertise in the manual classification of ABR components participated in the study. The Bland-Altman statistical method was employed for the assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability. The mean, standard deviation and error for the bias, which is the difference between examiners’ annotations, were estimated for each pair of examiners. Scatter plots and histograms were employed for data visualization and analysis. Results: In most comparisons the differences between examiner’s annotations were below 0.1 ms, which is clinically acceptable. In four cases, it was found a large error and standard deviation (>0.1 ms) that indicate the presence of outliers and thus, discrepancies between examiners. Conclusions: Our results quantify the inter-examiner agreement and variability of the manual analysis of ABR data, and they also allows for the determination of different patterns of manual ABR analysis.

The ocean’s role in setting the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

Through study of observations and coupled climate simulations, it is argued that the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the equator is a consequence of a northwards heat transport across the equator by ocean circulation. Observations suggest that the hemispheric net radiative forcing of climate at the top of the atmosphere is almost perfectly symmetric about the equator, and so the total (atmosphere plus ocean) heat transport across the equator is small (order 0.2 PW northwards). Due to the Atlantic ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, however, the ocean carries significantly more heat northwards across the equator (order 0.4 PW) than does the coupled system. There are two primary consequences. First, atmospheric heat transport is southwards across the equator to compensate (0.2 PW southwards), resulting in the ITCZ being displaced north of the equator. Second, the atmosphere, and indeed the ocean, is slightly warmer (by perhaps 2 °C) in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. This leads to the northern hemisphere emitting slightly more outgoing longwave radiation than the southern hemisphere by virtue of its relative warmth, supporting the small northward heat transport by the coupled system across the equator. To conclude, the coupled nature of the problem is illustrated through study of atmosphere–ocean–ice simulations in the idealized setting of an aquaplanet, resolving the key processes at work.