Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

As long as global CO₂ emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

Early versus delayed application of Thomas splints in patients with isolated femur shaft fractures: The benefits quantified

AIMS To investigate and quantify the clinical benefits of early versus delayed application of Thomas splints in patients with isolated femur shaft fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS Level IV retrospective clinical and radiological analysis of patients presenting from January to December 2012 at a Level 1 Trauma Unit. All skeletally mature patients with isolated femur shaft fractures independently of their mechanism of injury were included. Exclusion criteria were: ipsilateral fracture of the lower limb, neck and supracondylar femur fractures, periprosthetic and incomplete fractures. Their clinical records were analysed for blood transfusion requirements, pulmonary complications, surgery time, duration of hospital stay and analgesic requirements. RESULTS A total of 106 patients met our inclusion criteria. There were 74 males and 32 females. Fifty seven (54%) patients were in the 'early splinted' group and 49 patients (46%) were in the 'delayed splinted' group (P>0.05). The need for blood transfusion was significantly reduced in the 'early splinted' group (P=0.04). There was a significantly higher rate of pulmonary complications in the 'delayed splinted' group (P=0.008). All other parameters were similar between the two groups. CONCLUSION The early application of Thomas splints for isolated femur fractures in non-polytraumatised patients has a clinically and statistically significant benefit of reducing the need for blood transfusions and the incidence of pulmonary complications.

Developing a point-of-care electronic medical record system for TB/HIV co-infected patients: experiences from Lighthouse Trust, Lilongwe, Malawi.

BACKGROUND Implementation of user-friendly, real-time, electronic medical records for patient management may lead to improved adherence to clinical guidelines and improved quality of patient care. We detail the systematic, iterative process that implementation partners, Lighthouse clinic and Baobab Health Trust, employed to develop and implement a point-of-care electronic medical records system in an integrated, public clinic in Malawi that serves HIV-infected and tuberculosis (TB) patients. METHODS Baobab Health Trust, the system developers, conducted a series of technical and clinical meetings with Lighthouse and Ministry of Health to determine specifications. Multiple pre-testing sessions assessed patient flow, question clarity, information sequencing, and verified compliance to national guidelines. Final components of the TB/HIV electronic medical records system include: patient demographics; anthropometric measurements; laboratory samples and results; HIV testing; WHO clinical staging; TB diagnosis; family planning; clinical review; and drug dispensing. RESULTS Our experience suggests that an electronic medical records system can improve patient management, enhance integration of TB/HIV services, and improve provider decision-making. However, despite sufficient funding and motivation, several challenges delayed system launch including: expansion of system components to include of HIV testing and counseling services; changes in the national antiretroviral treatment guidelines that required system revision; and low confidence to use the system among new healthcare workers. To ensure a more robust and agile system that met all stakeholder and user needs, our electronic medical records launch was delayed more than a year. Open communication with stakeholders, careful consideration of ongoing provider input, and a well-functioning, backup, paper-based TB registry helped ensure successful implementation and sustainability of the system. Additional, on-site, technical support provided reassurance and swift problem-solving during the extended launch period. CONCLUSION Even when system users are closely involved in the design and development of an electronic medical record system, it is critical to allow sufficient time for software development, solicitation of detailed feedback from both users and stakeholders, and iterative system revisions to successfully transition from paper to point-of-care electronic medical records. For those in low-resource settings, electronic medical records for integrated care is a possible and positive innovation.

CHOLINERGIC MODULATION OF THALAMIC INPUT INTO THE CINGULATE CORTEX

This research demonstrates cholinergic modulation of thalamic input into the limbic cortex. A projection from the mediodorsal thalamus (MD) to the anterior cingulate cortex was defined anatomically and physiologically. Injections of horse-radish peroxidase into the anterior cingulate cortex labels neurons in the lateral, parvocellular, region of MD. Electrical Stimulation of this area produces a complex field potential in the anterior cingulate cortex which was further characterized by current density analysis and single cell recordings.^ The monsynaptic component of the response was identified as a large negative field which is maximal in layer IV of the anterior cingulate cortex. This response shows remarkable tetanic potentiation of frequencies near 7 Hz. During a train of 50 or more stimuli, the response would grow quickly and remain at a fairly stable potentiated level throughout the train.^ Cholinergic modulation of this thalamic response was demonstrated by iontophoretic application of the cholinergic agonist carbachol decreased the effectiveness of the thalamic imput by rapidly attenuation the response during a train of stimuli. The effect was apparently mediated by muscarinic receptors since the effect of carbachol was blocked by atropine but not by hexamethonium.^ To determine the source of the cingulate cortex cholinergic innervation, lesions were made in the anterior and medial thalamus and in the nucleus of the diagonal band of Broca. The effects of these lesions on choline acetyltranferase activity in the cingulate cortex were determined by a micro-radio-enzymatical assay. Only the lesions of the nucleus of the diagonal band significantly decreased the choline acetyltransferase activity in the cingulate cortex regions. Therefore, the diagonal band appears to be a major source of sensory cholinergic innervation and may be involved in gating of sensory information from the thalamus into the limbic cortex. Attempts to modulate the cingulate response to MD stimulation with electrical stimulation of the diagonal band, however were not successful.^

Measuring Scale Efficiency from the Translog Multi-Input, Multi-Output Distance Function

Ray (1998) developed measures of input- and output-oriented scale efficiency that can be directly computed from an estimated Translog frontier production function. This note extends the earlier results from Ray (1998) to the multiple-output multiple input case.

Comparing Input- and Output-Oriented Measures of Technical Efficiency to Determine Local Returns to Scale in DEA Models

This paper shows how one can infer the nature of local returns to scale at the input- or output-oriented efficient projection of a technically inefficient input-output bundle, when the input- and output-oriented measures of efficiency differ.

Input Aggregation in Models of Data Envelopment Analysis: A Statistical Test with an Application to Indian Manufacturing

A problem frequently encountered in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is that the total number of inputs and outputs included tend to be too many relative to the sample size. One way to counter this problem is to combine several inputs (or outputs) into (meaningful) aggregate variables reducing thereby the dimension of the input (or output) vector. A direct effect of input aggregation is to reduce the number of constraints. This, in its turn, alters the optimal value of the objective function. In this paper, we show how a statistical test proposed by Banker (1993) may be applied to test the validity of a specific way of aggregating several inputs. An empirical application using data from Indian manufacturing for the year 2002-03 is included as an example of the proposed test.

Input Price Variation Across Locations and a Generalized Measure of Cost Efficiency

We propose a nonparametric model for global cost minimization as a framework for optimal allocation of a firm's output target across multiple locations, taking account of differences in input prices and technologies across locations. This should be useful for firms planning production sites within a country and for foreign direct investment decisions by multi-national firms. Two illustrative examples are included. The first example considers the production location decision of a manufacturing firm across a number of adjacent states of the US. In the other example, we consider the optimal allocation of US and Canadian automobile manufacturers across the two countries.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

Delayed Thrombus Resolution and Fibroproliferative Vascular Wound Healing From Deficiency of Type III Collagen: a Paradoxical Mechanism for Tissue Fragility

Vascular Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is a heritable disease of connective tissue caused by mutations in COL3A1, conferring a tissue deficiency of type III collagen. Cutaneous wounds heal poorly in these patients, and they are susceptible to spontaneous and catastrophic rupture of expansible hollow organs like the gut, uterus, and medium-sized to large arteries, which leads to premature death. Although the predisposition for organ rupture is often attributed to inherent tissue fragility, investigation of arteries from a haploinsufficient Col3a1 mouse model (Col3a1+/-) demonstrates that mutant arteries withstand even supraphysiologic pressures comparably to wild-type vessels. We hypothesize that injury that elicits occlusive thrombi instead unmasks defective thrombus resolution resulting from impaired production of type III collagen, which causes deranged remodeling of matrix, persistent inflammation, and dysregulated behavior by resident myofibroblasts, culminating in the development of penetrating neovascular channels that disrupt the mechanical integrity of the arterial wall. Vascular injury and thrombus formation following ligation of the carotid artery reveals an abnormal persistence and elevated burden of occlusive thrombi at 21 post-operative days in vessels from Col3a1+/- mice, as opposed to near complete resolution and formation of a patent and mature neointima in wild-type mice. At only 14 days, both groups harbor comparable burdens of resolving thrombi, but wild-type mice increase production of type III collagen in actively resolving tissues, while mutant mice do not. Rather, thrombi in mutant mice contain higher burdens of macrophages and proliferative myofibroblasts, which persist through 21 days while wild-type thrombi, inflammatory cells, and proliferation all regress. At the same time that increased macrophage burdens were observed at 14 and 21 days post ligation, the medial layer of mutant arterial walls concurrently harbored a significantly higher incidence of penetrating neovessels compared with those in wild-type mice. To assess whether limited type III collagen production alters myofibroblast behavior, fibroblasts from vEDS patients with COL3A1 missense mutations were seeded into three-dimensional fibrin gel constructs and stimulated with transforming growth factor-β1 to initiate myofibroblast differentiation. Although early signaling events occur similarly in all cell lines, late extracellular matrix- and mechanically-regulated events like transcriptional upregulation of type I and type III collagen secretion are delayed in mutant cultures, while transcription of genes encoding intracellular contractile machinery is increased. Sophisticated imaging of collagen synthesized de novo by resident myofibroblasts visualizes complex matrix reorganization by control cells but only meager remodeling by COL3A1 mutant cells, concordant with their compensatory contraction to maintain tension in the matrix. Finally, administration of immunosuppressive rapamycin to mice following carotid ligation sufficiently halts the initial inflammatory phase of thrombus resolution and fully prevents both myofibroblast migration into the thrombus and the differential development of neovessels between mutant and wild-type mice, suggesting that pathological defects in mutant arteries develop secondarily to myofibroblast dysfunction and chronic inflammatory stimulation, rather than as a manifestation of tissue fragility. Together these data establish evidence that pathological defects in the vessel wall architecture develop in mutant arteries as sequelae to abnormal healing and remodeling responses activated by arterial injury. Thus, these data support the hypothesis that events threatening the integrity of type III collagen-deficient vessels develop not as a result of inherent tissue weakness and fragility at baseline but instead as an episodic byproduct of abnormally persistent granulation tissue and fibroproliferative intravascular remodeling.