Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Attributes of irrigated rice and soil solution as affected by salinity levels of the water layer

In the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, flooded rice fields using Patos Lagoon as the source of water for irrigation are subject to be damaged by salinity, since this source is bound to the sea on its southern end. The sensitivity of rice is variable during plant development, being higher in the seedling and reproductive periods. However, there is not enough information about the behavior of plants under salt stress during the course of its development, especially in the vegetative stage. This study evaluated the effect of different levels of salinity of irrigation water on the salinity of soil solution over time and on some plant attributes, during the vegetative stage of rice. The study was conducted in a greenhouse, where seeds of the variety IRGA 424 were sown in pots and irrigated with water with electrical conductivity (ECi) levels of: 0.3, 0.75, 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 dS m-1; from the tillering initiation (V4) until the panicle initiation (PI). The evaluations made were the electrical conductiviy of soil solution (ECe), the dry biomass of plants and stems, tillering, height and the transpiration of plants. The ECe increased with the ECi over time, and was determined by water transpiration flux in pots. The ECe values at the end of the experiment were high and, in most cases, higher than the critical values for flooded rice. The growth attributes of rice were negatively affected from ECi of 2.0 dS m-1 and ECe of 4.0 dS m-1.

Anàlisi factorial confirmatòria per a variables categòriques: Aplicació al qüestionari de discapacitat WHODAS-II

Objective: To describe the methodology of Confirmatory Factor Analyis for categorical items and to apply this methodology to evaluate the factor structure and invariance of the WHO-Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS-II) questionnaire, developed by the World HealthOrganization.Methods: Data used for the analysis come from the European Study of Mental Disorders(ESEMeD), a cross-sectional interview to a representative sample of the general population of 6 european countries (n=8796). Respondents were administered a modified version of theWHODAS-II, that measures functional disability in the previous 30 days in 6 differentdimensions: Understanding and Communicating; Self-Care, Getting Around, Getting Along withOthers, Life Activities and Participation. The questionnaire includes two types of items: 22severity items (5 points likert) and 8 frequency items (continuous). An Exploratory factoranalysis (EFA) with promax rotation was conducted on a random 50% of the sample. Theremaining half of the sample was used to perform a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) inorder to compare three different models: (a) the model suggested by the results obtained in theEFA; (b) the theoretical model suggested by the WHO with 6 dimensions; (c) a reduced modelequivalent to model b where 4 of the frequency items are excluded. Moreover, a second orderfactor was also evaluated. Finally, a CFA with covariates was estimated in order to evaluatemeasurement invariance of the items between Mediterranean and non-mediterranean countries.Results: The solution that provided better results in the EFA was that containing 7 factors. Twoof the frequency items presented high factor loadings in the same factor, and one of thempresented factor loadings smaller than 0.3 with all the factors. With regard to the CFA, thereduced model (model c) presented the best goodness of fit results (CFI=0.992,TLI=0.996,RMSEA=0.024). The second order factor structure presented adequate goodness of fit (CFI=0.987,TLI=0.991, RMSEA=0.036). Measurement non-invariance was detected for one of the items of thequestionnaire (FD20 ¿ Embarrassment due to health problems).Conclusions: AFC confirmed the initial hypothesis about the factorial structure of the WHODAS-II in 6factors. The second order factor supports the existence of a global dimension of disability. The use of 4of the frequency items is not recommended in the scoring of the corresponding dimensions.

Choice of Initial Combination Antiretroviral Therapy in Individuals With HIV Infection: Determinants and Outcomes.

BACKGROUND Current guidelines give recommendations for preferred combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We investigated factors influencing the choice of initial cART in clinical practice and its outcome. METHODS We analyzed treatment-naive adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and starting cART from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2009. The primary end point was the choice of the initial antiretroviral regimen. Secondary end points were virologic suppression, the increase in CD4 cell counts from baseline, and treatment modification within 12 months after starting treatment. RESULTS A total of 1957 patients were analyzed. Tenofovir-emtricitabine (TDF-FTC)-efavirenz was the most frequently prescribed cART (29.9%), followed by TDF-FTC-lopinavir/r (16.9%), TDF-FTC-atazanavir/r (12.9%), zidovudine-lamivudine (ZDV-3TC)-lopinavir/r (12.8%), and abacavir/lamivudine (ABC-3TC)-efavirenz (5.7%). Differences in prescription were noted among different Swiss HIV Cohort Study sites (P < .001). In multivariate analysis, compared with TDF-FTC-efavirenz, starting TDF-FTC-lopinavir/r was associated with prior AIDS (relative risk ratio, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.78-4.35), HIV-RNA greater than 100 000 copies/mL (1.53; 1.07-2.18), and CD4 greater than 350 cells/μL (1.67; 1.04-2.70); TDF-FTC-atazanavir/r with a depressive disorder (1.77; 1.04-3.01), HIV-RNA greater than 100 000 copies/mL (1.54; 1.05-2.25), and an opiate substitution program (2.76; 1.09-7.00); and ZDV-3TC-lopinavir/r with female sex (3.89; 2.39-6.31) and CD4 cell counts greater than 350 cells/μL (4.50; 2.58-7.86). At 12 months, 1715 patients (87.6%) achieved viral load less than 50 copies/mL and CD4 cell counts increased by a median (interquartile range) of 173 (89-269) cells/μL. Virologic suppression was more likely with TDF-FTC-efavirenz, and CD4 increase was higher with ZDV-3TC-lopinavir/r. No differences in outcome were observed among Swiss HIV Cohort Study sites. CONCLUSIONS Large differences in prescription but not in outcome were observed among study sites. A trend toward individualized cART was noted suggesting that initial cART is significantly influenced by physician's preference and patient characteristics. Our study highlights the need for evidence-based data for determining the best initial regimen for different HIV-infected persons.

Rice grown in nutrient solution with doses of manganese and silicon

Although silicon is not recognized as a nutrient, it may benefit rice plants and may alleviate the Mn toxicity in some plant species. The dry matter yield (root, leaf, sheaths and leaf blade) and plant architecture (angle of leaf insertion and leaf arc) were evaluated in rice plants grown in nutrient solutions with three Mn doses, with and without Si addition. The treatments were arranged in a 2 x 3 factorial [with and without (2 mmol L-1) Si; three Mn doses (0.5; 2.5 and 10 µmol L-1)], in a randomized block design with 4 replications. The experimental unit was a 4 L plastic vase with 4 rice (Metica-1 cultivar) plants. Thirty nine days after keeping the seedlings in the nutrient solution the plant dry matter yield was determined; the angle of leaf insertion in the sheath and the leaf arc were measured; and the Si and Mn concentrations in roots, sheaths and leaves were determined. The analysis of variance (F test at 5 and 1 % levels) and the regression analysis (for testing plant response to Mn with the Si treatments) were performed. The Si added to the nutrient solution increased the dry matter yield of roots, sheaths and leaf blades and also decreased the angle of leaf blade insertion into the sheath and the foliar arc in the rice plant. Additionally, it ameliorated the rice plant architecture which allowed an increase in the dry matter yield. Similarly, the addition of Mn to the solution improved the architecture of the rice plants with gain in dry matter yield. As Si was added to the nutrient solution, the concentration of Mn in leaves decreased and in roots increased thus alleviating the toxic effects of Mn on the plants.

The pneumonia severity index: a decade after the initial derivation and validation

The prognosis of community-acquired pneumonia ranges from rapid resolution of symptoms and full recovery of functional status to the development of severe medical complications and death. The pneumonia severity index is a rigorously studied prediction rule for prognosis that objectively stratifies patients into quintiles of risk for short-term mortality on the basis of 20 demographic and clinical variables routinely available at presentation. The pneumonia severity index was derived and validated with data on >50,000 patients with community-acquired pneumonia by use of well-accepted methodological standards and is the only pneumonia decision aid that has been empirically shown to safely increase the proportion of patients given treatment in the outpatient setting. Because of its prognostic accuracy, methodological rigor, and effectiveness and safety as a decision aid, the pneumonia severity index has become the reference standard for risk stratification of community-acquired pneumonia

Effect of NPK fertilization on production and leaf nutrient content of eucalyptus minicuttings in nutrient solution

Adequate nutrient levels in plants vary according to the species or clone, age and management practice. Therefore, adjustments of the nutrient solution are often necessary according to the plant material for multiplication. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of NPK fertilization on production and leaf nutrient contents of eucalyptus cuttings in nutrient solution. The study was conducted from November 2008 to January 2009 in a greenhouse. The experimental design was completely randomized fractional factorial (4 x 4 x 4)½, with a total of 32 treatments with three replications. The treatments consisted of four doses of N (50, 100, 200 and 400 mg L-1) as urea, P (7.5, 15, 30 and 60 mg L-1) in the form of phosphoric acid and K (50, 100, 200 and 400 mg L-1) in the form of potassium chloride in the nutrient solution. Only the effect of N alone was significant for the number and dry weight of minicuttings per ministump, with a linear decreasing effect with increasing N levels. The highest number of cuttings was obtained at a dose of 50, 7.5 and 50 mg L-1 of N, P and K, respectively.

NPK fertilization on initial growth of physic nut seedlings in Quartzarenic Neossol

Balanced fertilization is important for plant growth. There is little information on physic nut (Jatropha curcas L.) and tests with the fertilization of the species are very recent. This study evaluated the initial growth of physic nut seedlings in response to NPK rates to Quartzarenic Neossol in a greenhouse and estimated P and K critical soil levels and N, P and K in shoot dry matter after 120 days of evaluation. The treatments were arranged in a randomized, fractional factorial design (4 x 4 x 4)½, totalizing 32 treatments with three replicates, 96 experimental plots and N rates (0, 75, 150 and 300 mg dm-3) as urea; P rates (0, 45, 90 and 180 mg dm-3) as triple superphosphate and K rates (0, 50, 100 and 200 mg dm-3) as potassium chloride. After 120 days, the plants were harvested and some variables evaluated: plant height, stem diameter, shoot and root dry weight, macro and micronutrient levels in plant shoots, and soil chemical properties. The physic nut seedlings responded to NPK fertilizer in the initial growth phase; the response to N was negative. The recommended P and K rates were 25 and 67 mg dm-3, respectively. The critical levels, corresponding to the recommended P rate were 13 and 74 mg dm-3 for K in soil (Mehlich-1). The N, P and K levels in the shoot dry matter of physic nut were 37.4, 2.1 and 35.7 g kg-1, respectively.

Voir le monde comme une image : le schème de l'image mimétique dans la philosophie de Platon (Cratyle, Sophiste, Timée)

Résumé de la thèse Le travail de thèse «VOIR LE MONDE COMME UNE IMAGE. Le schème de l'image mimétique dans la philosophie de Platon (Cratyle, Sophiste, Timée) » d'Alexandre NEVSKY étudie la conception philosophique de l'image chez Platon. En posant la question : qu'est-ce que l'image pour Platon? l'étude se propose, dans un premier temps, d'analyser la manière précise dont l'idée de l'image fonctionne dans l'articulation logique de l'enquête platonicienne, en se basant avant tout sur trois dialogues majeurs où cette idée est explicitement thématisée par Platon lui-même, à savoir le Cratyle, le Sophiste et le Timée. Par une analyse détaillée de ces textes, Alexandre Nevsky essaie de démontrer que l'idée de l'image fonctionne comme un schème euristique dont la logique interne détermine les moments clés dans le déroulement de chaque dialogue examiné, et constitue ainsi une véritable méthode d'investigation philosophique pour Platon. En suivant cette stratégie platonicienne, l'auteur nous montre quel rôle le schème de l'image joue selon Platon d'abord dans la constitution du langage (le Cratyle), puis, dans celle du discours (le Sophiste) et, enfin, dans celle du monde (le Timée). Une telle approche lui permet de revoir l'interprétation traditionnelle de certains passages clés, célèbres pour leurs difficultés, en mettant en évidence la façon dont la nouvelle perspective platonicienne, introduite grâce au schème de l'image, permet de formuler une solution philosophique originale du problème initial. On y trouve ainsi rediscutés, pour ne citer que quelques exemples, la théorie curieuse de l'imitation phonétique et le problème de la justesse propre du nom-image, la définition philosophique de la notion d'image et la distinction platonicienne entre limage-ressemblance et l'image-apparence, la logique paradoxale de l'introduction d'un troisième genre dans la structure ontologique de l'être et la question du sens exact à donner au «discours vraisemblable » de Platon sur la naissance de l'univers. Dans un deuxième temps, cette étude tente de dégager, derrière la méthode heuristique basée sur le schème de l'image, une véritable conception de l'image mimétique chez Platon. L'une des idées principales de la thèse est ici de montrer que cette conception présente une solution philosophique de Platon au problème de l'apparence archaïque. Car, face à la question sophistique : comment une chose - que ce soit le discours ou le monde - peut-elle être une apparence, quelque chose qui n'existe pas? Platon apporte une réponse tout à fait originale elle le peut en tant qu'image. Or, l'image n'est pas une simple apparence illusoire, elle est le reflet d'une autre réalité, indépendante et véritable, que l'on doit supposer, selon Platon, même quand sa nature exacte nous échappe encore. La conception platonicienne de l'image apparaît ainsi comme un pendant indispensable de la théorie des Formes intelligibles et aussi comme son étape préalable au niveau de laquelle l'âme du philosophe, dans son ascension vers la vérité, se retrouve dans un espace intermédiaire, déjà au-delà des illusions du monde phénoménal, mais encore en-deçà des engagements métaphysiques de la théorie des Formes.

Kinetics of phosphorus sorption in soils in the state of Paraíba¹

The soil P sorption capacity has been studied for many years, but little attention has been paid to the rate of this process, which is relevant in the planning of phosphate fertilization. The purpose of this experiment was to assess kinetics of P sorption in 12 representative soil profiles of the State of Paraíba (Brazil), select the best data fitting among four equations and relate these coefficients to the soil properties. Samples of 12 soils with wide diversity of physical, chemical and mineralogical properties were agitated in a horizontal shaker, with 10 mmo L-1 CaCl2 solution containing 6 and 60 mg L-1 P, for periods of 5, 15, 30, 45, 60, 90, 120, 420, 720, 1,020, and 1,440 min. After each shaking period, the P concentration in the equilibrium solution was measured and three equations were fitted based on the Freundlich equation and one based on the Elovich equation, to determine which soil had the highest sorption rate (kinetics) and which soil properties correlated to this rate. The kinetics of P sorption in soils with high maximum P adsorption capacity (MPAC) was fast for 30 min at the lower initial P concentration (6 mg L-1). No difference was observed between soils at the higher initial P concentration (60 mg L-1). The P adsorption kinetics were positively correlated with clay content, MPAC and the amount of Al extracted with dithionite-citrate-bicarbonate. The data fitted well to Freundlich-based equations equation, whose coefficients can be used to predict P adsorption rates in soils.

Initial state of ultrarelativistic heavy ion collision

A model for energy, pressure, and flow velocity distributions at the beginning of ultrarelativistic heavy ion collisions is presented, which can be used as an initial condition for hydrodynamic calculations. Our model takes into account baryon recoil for both target and projectile, arising from the acceleration of partons in an effective field F mu nu produced in the collision. The typical field strength (string tension) for RHIC energies is about 512 GeV/fm, which allows us to talk about string ropes. The results show that a quark-gluon plasma forms a tilted disk, such that the direction of the largest pressure gradient stays in the reaction plane, but deviates from both the beam and the usual transverse flow directions. Such initial conditions may lead to the creation of antiflow or third flow component [L. P. Csernai and D. Rhrich, Phys. Rev. Lett. B 458, 454 (1999)].

Decay of unstable states in the presence of colored noise and random initial conditions. I. Theory of nonlinear relaxation times

The general theory of nonlinear relaxation times is developed for the case of Gaussian colored noise. General expressions are obtained and applied to the study of the characteristic decay time of unstable states in different situations, including white and colored noise, with emphasis on the distributed initial conditions. Universal effects of the coupling between colored noise and random initial conditions are predicted.

Decay of unstable states in the presence of colored noise and random initial conditions. II. Analog experiments and digital simulations

The decay of an unstable state under the influence of external colored noise has been studied by means of analog experiments and digital simulations. For both fixed and random initial conditions, the time evolution of the second moment ¿x2(t)¿ of the system variable was determined and then used to evaluate the nonlinear relaxation time. The results obtained are found to be in excellent agreement with the theoretical predictions of the immediately preceding paper [Casademunt, Jiménez-Aquino, and Sancho, Phys. Rev. A 40, 5905 (1989)].