Liberties and constraints of the normative approach to evaluation and decision in forensic science: a discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions

At a time when disciplined inference and decision making under uncertainty represent common aims to participants in legal proceedings, the scientific community is remarkably heterogenous in its attitudes as to how these goals ought to be achieved. Probability and decision theory exert a considerable influence, and we think by all reason rightly do so, but they go against a mainstream of thinking that does not embrace-or is not aware of-the 'normative' character of this body of theory. It is normative, in the sense understood in this article, in that it prescribes particular properties, typically (logical) coherence, to which reasoning and decision making ought to conform. Disregarding these properties can result in diverging views which are occasionally used as an argument against the theory, or as a pretext for not following it. Typical examples are objections according to which people, both in everyday life but also individuals involved at various levels in the judicial process, find the theory difficult to understand and to apply. A further objection is that the theory does not reflect how people actually behave. This article aims to point out in what sense these examples misinterpret the analytical framework in its normative perspective. Through examples borrowed mostly from forensic science contexts, it is argued that so-called intuitive scientific attitudes are particularly liable to such misconceptions. These attitudes are contrasted with a statement of the actual liberties and constraints of probability and decision theory and the view according to which this theory is normative.

Ag Decision Maker, October 2015, Vol. 19, no. 12

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Ag Decision Maker, November 2015, Vol. 20, no. 1

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Iowa Strategy for Homeland Security and Emergency Management 2015-2017, October 1, 2014

Address sustainability in all efforts. Sustainability should be at the core of all levels of homeland security and emergency management effort in Iowa. Capabilities need to be built for the long term, and without a sustainability plan in place, projects can quickly deplete uncertain levels of funding. Utilize an all-hazards methodology. Developing capabilities that are effective during a variety of disaster and emergency scenarios represents sound planning and resource management. Enhance capabilities through joint planning, training and exercise. Effective capabilities developed through coordinated planning efforts and an ongoing joint training and exercising program to ensure substantiate of prepared response. Utilize a collaborative approach to build capability. We will utilize whatever partnerships are necessary to build capability in the most effective manner possible. Regional partnerships have been, and will continue to be, in the forefront of the State of Iowa’s efforts to build and enhance capability. Enhance statewide capabilities. Whenever possible, we will identify and augment existing resources to provide statewide capability during a disaster or terrorist attack. Awareness, outreach and education. Open communication is critical to the success of any initiative. All projects implemented will have awareness, education and outreach components to ensure that all stakeholders are informed as to their responsibilities, capabilities and access. Information sharing and a common operating picture. The timely exchange of critical/actionable information is imperative to the success of every operation. The identification of a common operating picture allows decision makers to make informed decisions based on a unified understanding of the events around them.

Iowa Pavement Asset Management Decision-Making Framework & Pavement Treatment Selection Tool for Local Agencies, TR-651, 2015

Most local agencies in Iowa currently make their pavement treatment decisions based on their limited experience due primarily to lack of a systematic decision-making framework and a decision-aid tool. The lack of objective condition assessment data of agency pavements also contributes to this problem. This study developed a systematic pavement treatment selection framework for local agencies to assist them in selecting the most appropriate treatment and to help justify their maintenance and rehabilitation decisions. The framework is based on an extensive literature review of the various pavement treatment techniques in terms of their technical applicability and limitations, meaningful practices of neighboring states, and the results of a survey of local agencies. The treatment selection framework involves three different steps: pavement condition assessment, selection of technically feasible treatments using decision trees, and selection of the most appropriate treatment considering the return-on-investment (ROI) and other non-economic factors. An Excel-based spreadsheet tool that automates the treatment selection framework was also developed, along with a standalone user guide for the tool. The Pavement Treatment Selection Tool (PTST) for Local Agencies allows users to enter the severity and extent levels of existing distresses and then, recommends a set of technically feasible treatments. The tool also evaluates the ROI of each feasible treatment and, if necessary, it can also evaluate the non-economic value of each treatment option to help determine the most appropriate treatment for the pavement. It is expected that the framework and tool will help local agencies improve their pavement asset management practices significantly and make better economic and defensible decisions on pavement treatment selection.

Pediatric advance care planning: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Advance care planning (ACP) is increasingly regarded as the gold standard in the care of patients with life-limiting illnesses. Research has focused on adults, but ACP is also being practiced in pediatrics. We conducted a systematic review on empirical literature on pediatric ACP (pACP) to assess current practices, effects, and perspectives of pACP. METHODS: We searched PubMed, BELIT, and PSYCinfo for empirical literature on pACP, published January 1991 through January 2012. Titles, abstracts, and full texts were screened by 3 independent reviewers for studies that met the predefined criteria. The evidence level of the studies was assessed. Relevant study outcomes were retrieved according to predefined questions. RESULTS: We included 5 qualitative and 8 quantitative studies. Only 3 pACP programs were identified, all from the United States. Two of them were informed by adult programs. Major pACP features are discussions between families and care providers, as well as advance directives. A chaplain and other providers may be involved if required. Programs vary in how well they are evaluated; only 1 was studied by using a randomized controlled trial. Preliminary data suggest that pACP can successfully be implemented and is perceived as helpful. It may be emotionally relieving and facilitate communication and decision-making. Major challenges are negative reactions from emergency services, schools, and the community. CONCLUSIONS: There are few systematic pACP programs worldwide and none in Europe. Future research should investigate the needs of all stakeholders. In particular, the perspective of professionals has so far been neglected.

Ag Decision Maker, December 2015, Vol. 20, no. 2

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Deploying the Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) in Iowa, 2003

Adverse weather conditions dramatically affect the nation’s surface transportation system. The development of a prototype winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) is part of the Federal Highway Administration’s effort to produce a prototype tool for decision support to winter road maintenance managers to help make the highways safer for the traveling public. The MDSS is based on leading diagnostic and prognostic weather research capabilities and road condition algorithms, which are being developed at national research centers. In 2003, the Iowa Department of Transportation was chosen as a field test bed for the continuing development of this important research program. The Center for Transportation Research and Education assisted the Iowa Department of Transportation by collecting and analyzing surface condition data. The Federal Highway Administration also selected five national research centers to participate in the development of the prototype MDSS. It is anticipated that components of the prototype MDSS system developed by this project will ultimately be deployed by road operating agencies, including state departments of transportation, and generally supplied by private vendors.

Decision making techniques with similarity measures and OWA operators

We analyse the use of the ordered weighted average (OWA) in decision-making giving special attention to business and economic decision-making problems. We present several aggregation techniques that are very useful for decision-making such as the Hamming distance, the adequacy coefficient and the index of maximum and minimum level. We suggest a new approach by using immediate weights, that is, by using the weighted average and the OWA operator in the same formulation. We further generalize them by using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. We also analyse the applicability of the OWA operator in business and economics and we see that we can use it instead of the weighted average. We end the paper with an application in a business multi-person decision-making problem regarding production management

Decision making: singin' in the brain.

Which neurons in the brain "decide" to initiate particular behaviors in response to sensory information? In this issue of Neuron, two papers (Kohatsu et al. and von Philipsborn et al.) identify candidates in the courtship circuitry of Drosophila. The activity of these neurons is both regulated by sex pheromones and necessary and sufficient to trigger male love song.

Weber's law in decision making: integrating behavioral data in humans with a neurophysiological model

Recent single-cell studies in monkeys (Romo et al., 2004) show that the activity of neurons in the ventral premotor cortex covaries with the animal's decisions in a perceptual comparison task regarding the frequency of vibrotactile events. The firing rate response of these neurons was dependent only on the frequency differences between the two applied vibrations, the sign of that difference being the determining factor for correct task performance. We present a biophysically realistic neurodynamical model that can account for the most relevant characteristics of this decision-making-related neural activity. One of the nontrivial predictions of this model is that Weber's law will underlie the perceptual discrimination behavior. We confirmed this prediction in behavioral tests of vibrotactile discrimination in humans and propose a computational explanation of perceptual discrimination that accounts naturally for the emergence of Weber's law. We conclude that the neurodynamical mechanisms and computational principles underlying the decision-making processes in this perceptual discrimination task are consistent with a fluctuation-driven scenario in a multistable regime.

Ag Decision Maker, January 2016, Vol. 20, no. 3

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture

Ag Decision Maker, March 2016, Vol. 20, no. 5

A Business Newsletter for Agriculture