Indexed versus nominal government debt under inflation and price-level targeting

This paper presents a DSGE model in which long run inflation risk matters for social welfare. Optimal indexation of long-term government debt is studied under two monetary policy regimes: inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT). Under IT, full indexation is optimal because long run inflation risk is substantial due to base-level drift, making indexed bonds a much better store of value than nominal bonds. Under PT, where long run inflation risk is largely eliminated, optimal indexation is substantially lower because nominal bonds become a better store of value relative to indexed bonds. These results are robust to the PT target horizon, imperfect credibility of PT and model calibration, but the assumption that indexation is lagged is crucial. From a policy perspective, a key finding is that accounting for optimal indexation has important welfare implications for comparisons of IT and PT.

Self-Fulfilling Price Cycles

This paper presents a model of a self-fulfilling price cycle in an asset market. Price oscillates deterministically even though the underlying environment is stationary. The mechanism that we uncover is driven by endogenous variation in the investment horizons of the different market participants, informed and uninformed. On even days, the price is high; on odd days it is low. On even days, informed traders are willing to jettison their good assets, knowing that they can buy them back the next day, when the price is low. The anticipated drop in price more than offsets any potential loss in dividend. Because of these asset sales, the informed build up their cash holdings. Understanding that the market is flooded with good assets, the uninformed traders are willing to pay a high price. But their investment horizon is longer than that of the informed traders: their intention is to hold the assets they purchase, not to resell. On odd days, the price is low because the uninformed recognise that the informed are using their cash holdings to cherry-pick good assets from the market. Now the uninformed, like the informed, are investing short-term. Rather than buy-and-hold as they do with assets purchased on even days, on odd days the uninformed are buying to sell. Notice that, at the root of the model, there lies a credit constraint. Although the informed are flush with cash on odd days, they are not deep pockets. On each cherry that they pick out of the market, they earn a high return: buying cheap, selling dear. However they don't have enough cash to strip the market of cherries and thereby bid the price up.

A Simple Characterization of Dynamic Completeness in Continuous Time

This paper investigates dynamic completeness of financial markets in which the underlying risk process is a multi-dimensional Brownian motion and the risky securities dividends geometric Brownian motions. A sufficient condition, that the instantaneous dispersion matrix of the relative dividends is non-degenerate, was established recently in the literature for single-commodity, pure-exchange economies with many heterogenous agents, under the assumption that the intermediate flows of all dividends, utilities, and endowments are analytic functions. For the current setting, a different mathematical argument in which analyticity is not needed shows that a slightly weaker condition suffices for general pricing kernels. That is, dynamic completeness obtains irrespectively of preferences, endowments, and other structural elements (such as whether or not the budget constraints include only pure exchange, whether or not the time horizon is finite with lump-sum dividends available on the terminal date, etc.)

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

A Case of Framing Effects: The Elicitation of Time Preferences.

We compare three methods for the elicitation of time preferences in an experimental setting: the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak procedure (BDM); the second price auction; and the multiple price list format. The first two methods have been used rarely to elicit time preferences. All methods used are perfectly equivalent from a decision theoretic point of view, and they should induce the same ‘truthful’ revelation i dominant strategies. In spite of this, we find that framing does matter: the money discount rates elicited with the multiple price list tend to be higher than those elicited with the other two methods. In addition, our results shed some light on attitudes towards time, and they permit a broad classification of subjects depending on how the size of the elicited values varies with the time horizon.

Emissions distribution in post-Kyoto international negotiations: a policy

An abundant scientific literature about climate change economics points out that the future participation of developing countries in international environmental policies will depend on their amount of pay offs inside and outside specific agreements. These studies are aimed at analyzing coalitions stability typically through a game theoretical approach. Though these contributions represent a corner stone in the research field investigating future plausible international coalitions and the reasons behind the difficulties incurred over time to implement emissions stabilizing actions, they cannot disentangle satisfactorily the role that equality play in inducing poor regions to tackle global warming. If we focus on the Stern Review findings stressing that climate change will generate heavy damages and policy actions will be costly in a finite time horizon, we understand why there is a great incentive to free ride in order to exploit benefits from emissions reduction efforts of others. The reluctance of poor countries in joining international agreements is mainly supported by historical responsibility of rich regions in generating atmospheric carbon concentration, whereas rich countries claim that emissions stabilizing policies will be effective only when developing countries will join them.Scholars recently outline that a perceived fairness in the distribution of emissions would facilitate a wide spread participation in international agreements. In this paper we overview the literature about distributional aspects of emissions by focusing on those contributions investigating past trends of emissions distribution through empirical data and future trajectories through simulations obtained by integrated assessment models. We will explain methodologies used to elaborate data and the link between real data and those coming from simulations. Results from this strand of research will be interpreted in order to discuss future negotiations for post Kyoto agreements that will be the focus of the next. Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen at the end of 2009. A particular attention will be devoted to the role that technological change will play in affecting the distribution of emissions over time and to how spillovers and experience diffusion could influence equality issues and future outcomes of policy negotiations.

Amor i literatura: dos conceptes per a la creació d'una novel·la

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí­fic del Jovent l'any 2009. L'amor, l'etern tema en el món literari és el protagonista de la temàtica en què se centra el projecte però, des de les primeres mostres literàries fins l'actualitat són infinites les creacions aparegudes. El treball s'ha centrat en algunes que són una digna representació de l'amor literari en cada època i en diverses parts de la literatura universal. Fins aquí un plantejament que no s'alunya de cap model realitzat dins de la temàtica de la literatura comparada. Però per solucionar la manca d'un fil conductor es va crear una novel·la que és la que guia aquest treball. Així es mostra el que una persona pot extreure llegint diverses obres d'amor literari, i no només sobre teories generals, sinó també d'opinions i pròpies emocions que provoca l'experiència de lectura. De la mà d en Marco, un jove veronès, i la seva vella amiga, la bibliotecària Sophie, es guia al lector a través d'un viatge que sorgeix de les primeres mostres d'amor escrit i arriba fins als nostres dies.

L'imaginaire du sabbat. Edition critique des textes les plus anciens (1430 c.- 1440 c.)

Résumé : Une importante littérature rédigée dans les années trente et quarante du XVe siècle décrit et définit pour la première fois et avec force détails, ce que l'on peut appeler l'imaginaire du sabbat des sorciers. En l'espace d'une décennie et dans un cadre territorial restreint - l'arc alpin qui va du Dauphiné au Simmental en passant par le Valais, le val d'Aoste et le Pays de Vaud, le fantasme du sabbat des sorciers et sorcières se met en place, avant de s'installer dans l'horizon mental de l'Europe pendant plusieurs siècles. Les textes écrits, qui rendent compte de l'émergence de cet imaginaire si lourd de conséquences pour l'histoire de l'Europe à la fin du Moyen Age et pendant une grande partie de l'époque moderne, ne sont pas nombreux. Ils proviennent de cinq auteurs : le dominicain allemand Jean Nider, deux laïcs (le chroniqueur lucernois Hans Fründ et le juge dauphinois Claude Tholosan), le chanoine de Lausanne Martin Le Franc et l'auteur anonyme des Errores gazariorum. En offrant une édition critique, une traduction française et une analyse détaillée de ces cinq textes, le présent ouvrage permet de saisir leur véritable contribution à la genèse de l'imaginaire du sabbat des sorciers et des sorcières.

Statistical properties of subgroups of free groups

The usual way to investigate the statistical properties of finitely generated subgroups of free groups, and of finite presentations of groups, is based on the so-called word-based distribution: subgroups are generated (finite presentations are determined) by randomly chosen k-tuples of reduced words, whose maximal length is allowed to tend to infinity. In this paper we adopt a different, though equally natural point of view: we investigate the statistical properties of the same objects, but with respect to the so-called graph-based distribution, recently introduced by Bassino, Nicaud and Weil. Here, subgroups (and finite presentations) are determined by randomly chosen Stallings graphs whose number of vertices tends to infinity. Our results show that these two distributions behave quite differently from each other, shedding a new light on which properties of finitely generated subgroups can be considered frequent or rare. For example, we show that malnormal subgroups of a free group are negligible in the raph-based distribution, while they are exponentially generic in the word-based distribution. Quite surprisingly, a random finite presentation generically presents the trivial group in this new distribution, while in the classical one it is known to generically present an infinite hyperbolic group.

La dignité de l'animal. Quel statut pour les animaux à l'heure des technosciences?

A bien des égards, comme le philosophe Emmanuel Kant l'avait déjà signalé, la manière dont nous traitons les animaux nous renvoie en miroir notre propre attitude envers nos compagnons humains. La maladie de la vache folle n'est-elle pas le résultat d'une rationalité industrielle déraisonnable et, par là même, le révélateur des dérives de la rationalité instrumentale et des menaces qui pèsent sur l'éthique ? Les perspectives ouvertes par le génie génétique et par les xénotransplantations n'annoncent-elles pas une fuite en avant dans les illusions d'une technoscience sans conscience et sans précaution ? Comment trouver un équilibre entre les intérêts des patients, les finalités de la médecine, le respect de l'animal et les réalités de l'économie ou de la politique ? Pour promouvoir une éthique à la hauteur de ces questions, faut-il abandonner tout anthropocentrisme, adopter une philosophie centrée sur la vie et le vivant (biocentrisme) prenant uniquement en compte le critère de la souffrance humaine et animale (pathocentrisme) ?Fruit d'un colloque interdisciplinaire tenu à Lausanne en mai 1999, cet ouvrage donne la parole à des chercheurs d'horizon très variés : des spécialistes de la zoologie, de l'étude du comportement animal, de la douleur animale et humaine et de l'anthropologie culturelle, des juristes, des médecins, des philosophes et des théologiens.

Introduction. Dignité humaine et dignité de l'animal: une dialectique asymétrique et nécessaire

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) A bien des égards, comme le philosophe Emmanuel Kant l'avait déjà signalé, la manière dont nous traitons les animaux nous renvoie en miroir notre propre attitude envers nos compagnons humains. La maladie de la vache folle n'est-elle pas le résultat d'une rationalité industrielle déraisonnable et, par là même, le révélateur des dérives de la rationalité instrumentale et des menaces qui pèsent sur l'éthique ? Les perspectives ouvertes par le génie génétique et par les xénotransplantations n'annoncent-elles pas une fuite en avant dans les illusions d'une technoscience sans conscience et sans précaution ? Comment trouver un équilibre entre les intérêts des patients, les finalités de la médecine, le respect de l'animal et les réalités de l'économie ou de la politique ? Pour promouvoir une éthique à la hauteur de ces questions, faut-il abandonner tout anthropocentrisme, adopter une philosophie centrée sur la vie et le vivant (biocentrisme) prenant uniquement en compte le critère de la souffrance humaine et animale (pathocentrisme) ?Fruit d'un colloque interdisciplinaire tenu à Lausanne en mai 1999, cet ouvrage donne la parole à des chercheurs d'horizon très variés : des spécialistes de la zoologie, de l'étude du comportement animal, de la douleur animale et humaine et de l'anthropologie culturelle, des juristes, des médecins, des philosophes et des théologiens.

Respuesta no lineal y criterios de diseño de puentes arco espaciales

El desarrollo más reciente de los puentes arco ha llevado a una nueva tipología: los “puentes arco espaciales”. Se entiende por puente arco espacial todo puente arco en el que, por su configuración geométrica y estructural, las cargas gravitatorias generan esfuerzos no contenidos en el plano del arco. Por un lado, aparecen para satisfacer las necesidades funcionales cuando estructuras en arco resultan las más adecuadas para sostener tableros curvos y evitar así apoyos intermedios. Desde un punto de vista estético, surgen como demanda de los nuevos puentes en entornos urbanos, buscando, no sólo una forma cuidada, sino persiguiendo convertirse en emblemas de la ciudad a partir de la originalidad y la innovación. Su proyecto y construcción es posible gracias a las grandes posibilidades que ofrecen los nuevos métodos de cálculo y dibujo por ordenador, en los que, a través del incremento de memoria y rapidez, cada vez se emplean programas más completos y nuevas modelizaciones, más cercanas a la realidad. No menos importante es el desarrollo de los medios auxiliares de construcción y de las herramientas de CAD/CAM, que convierte en construibles por control numérico formas de manufactura impensables. Ello trasciende en infinitas posibilidades de diseño y estructura. Sin embargo, el diseño y construcción de estas nuevas tipologías no ha estado acompañado por el avance en el estado del conocimiento fundamentado en la investigación, ya que se han desarrollado pocos estudios que explican parcialmente la respuesta estructural de estos puentes. Existe, por lo tanto, la necesidad de profundizar en el estado del conocimiento y clarificar su respuesta estructural, así como de plantear, finalmente, criterios de diseño que sirvan de apoyo en las fases de concepción y de proyecto a estas nuevas tipologías.

Evolutionary and convergence stability for continuous phenotypes in finite populations derived from two-allele models.

The evolution of a quantitative phenotype is often envisioned as a trait substitution sequence where mutant alleles repeatedly replace resident ones. In infinite populations, the invasion fitness of a mutant in this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process is used to characterize features about long-term phenotypic evolution, such as singular points, convergence stability (established from first-order effects of selection), branching points, and evolutionary stability (established from second-order effects of selection). Here, we try to characterize long-term phenotypic evolution in finite populations from this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process. We construct a stochastic model describing evolutionary dynamics at non-rare mutant allele frequency. We then derive stability conditions based on stationary average mutant frequencies in the presence of vanishing mutation rates. We find that the second-order stability condition obtained from second-order effects of selection is identical to convergence stability. Thus, in two-allele systems in finite populations, convergence stability is enough to characterize long-term evolution under the trait substitution sequence assumption. We perform individual-based simulations to confirm our analytic results.

A linear optimization technique for graph pebbling

Graph pebbling is a network model for studying whether or not a given supply of discrete pebbles can satisfy a given demand via pebbling moves. A pebbling move across an edge of a graph takes two pebbles from one endpoint and places one pebble at the other endpoint; the other pebble is lost in transit as a toll. It has been shown that deciding whether a supply can meet a demand on a graph is NP-complete. The pebbling number of a graph is the smallest t such that every supply of t pebbles can satisfy every demand of one pebble. Deciding if the pebbling number is at most k is NP 2 -complete. In this paper we develop a tool, called theWeight Function Lemma, for computing upper bounds and sometimes exact values for pebbling numbers with the assistance of linear optimization. With this tool we are able to calculate the pebbling numbers of much larger graphs than in previous algorithms, and much more quickly as well. We also obtain results for many families of graphs, in many cases by hand, with much simpler and remarkably shorter proofs than given in previously existing arguments (certificates typically of size at most the number of vertices times the maximum degree), especially for highly symmetric graphs. Here we apply theWeight Function Lemma to several specific graphs, including the Petersen, Lemke, 4th weak Bruhat, Lemke squared, and two random graphs, as well as to a number of infinite families of graphs, such as trees, cycles, graph powers of cycles, cubes, and some generalized Petersen and Coxeter graphs. This partly answers a question of Pachter, et al., by computing the pebbling exponent of cycles to within an asymptotically small range. It is conceivable that this method yields an approximation algorithm for graph pebbling.

Generalized inductive limits of quasidiagonal C*-algebras

If A is a unital quasidiagonal C*-algebra, we construct a generalized inductive limit BA which is simple, unital and inherits many structural properties from A. If A is the unitization of a non-simple purely infinite algebra (e.g., the cone over a Cuntz algebra), then BA is tracially AF which, among other things, lends support to a conjecture of Toms.