Improving the low-wind performance of the AERMOD atmospheric dispersion model for predicting short-range impacts of livestock ammonia emissions.

Short-range impacts to sensitive ecosystems as a result of ammonia emitted by livestock farms are often assessed using atmospheric dispersion modelling systems such as AERMOD. These assessments evaluate mean annual atmospheric concentrations of ammonia and nitrogen deposition rates at the ecosystem location for comparison with ecosystem damage thresholds. However, predictions of mean annual atmospheric concentrations can be dominated by periods of stable night-time conditions, which can contribute significantly to mean concentrations. AERMOD has been demonstrated to overestimate concentrations in certain stable low-wind conditions and so the model could potentially overestimate the short-range impacts of livestock ammonia emissions. This paper tests several modifications to the parameterisation of AERMOD (v12345) that aim to improve model predictions in low-wind conditions. The modifications are first described and then are applied to three pig farm case studies in the USA, Denmark and Spain to assess whether the modifications improve long-term mean ammonia concentration predictions through improved model performance. For these three case studies, most of the modifications tested improved model performance as a result of reducing the long-term mean concentration predictions, with the largest effect for low- or ground-level sources (e.g. slurry lagoons or naturally ventilated housing).

Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU

Projections for world food production and prices play a crucial role to evaluate and tackle future food security challenges. Understanding how these projections will be affected by climate change is the main objective of this study. By means of a bio-economic approach we assess the economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets, providing both a global analysis and a regionalised evaluation within the EU. To account for uncertainty, we analyse the IPCC emission scenario A1B for the 2030 horizon under several simulation scenarios that differ in (1) the climate projection, from HadleyCM3 (warm) or ECHAM5 (mild) global circulation models; and (2) the influence of CO2 effects. Results of this study indicate that agrifood market projections to 2030 are very sensitive to climate change uncertainties and, in particular to the magnitude of the carbon fertilization effect.

The Economic Impacts Of Climate Change On The Chilean Agricultural Sector

The agricultural sector could be one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change in the coming decades. Climate change impacts are related to changes in the growth period, extreme weather events, and changes in temperature and recipitation patterns, among others. All of these impacts may have significant consequences on agricultural production(Bates, et al.2008. A main issue regarding climate change impacts is related to the uncertainty associated with their occurrence. Climate change impacts can bestimated with simulation models based on several assumptions, among which the future patterns of emissions of greenhouse g asses are quite likely the most relevant, driving the development of future scenarios, i.e. plausible visions of how the future may unfold. Those scenarios are developed as storylines associated with different assumptions about climate and socioeconomic conditions and emissions, with reference figures, such as demographic projections, average global temperatures, etc.(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000). Within this context, climate change impact assessment is forced to consider multiple and interconnected sources of uncertainty in order to produce valuable information for policymakers.

Impacts of global change on iberian forest ecosystems inferred from the spanish national forest inventory = Impactos del cambio global en ecosistemas forestales ibéricos a partir del inventario forestal nacional

Los efectos del cambio global sobre los bosques son una de las grandes preocupaciones de la sociedad del siglo XXI. Algunas de sus posibles consecuencias como son los efectos en la producción, la sostenibilidad, la pérdida de biodiversidad o cambios en la distribución y ensamblaje de especies forestales pueden tener grandes repercusiones sociales, ecológicas y económicas. La detección y seguimiento de estos efectos constituyen uno de los retos a los que se enfrentan en la actualidad científicos y gestores forestales. En base a la comparación de series históricas del Inventario Forestal Nacional Español (IFN), esta tesis trata de arrojar luz sobre algunos de los impactos que los cambios socioeconómicos y ambientales de las últimas décadas han generado sobre nuestros bosques. En primer lugar, esta tesis presenta una innovadora metodología con base geoestadística que permite la comparación de diferentes ciclos de inventario sin importar los diferentes métodos de muestreo empleados en cada uno de ellos (Capítulo 3). Esta metodología permite analizar cambios en la dinámica y distribución espacial de especies forestales en diferentes gradientes geográficos. Mediante su aplicación, se constatarán y cuantificarán algunas de las primeras evidencias de cambio en la distribución altitudinal y latitudinal de diferentes especies forestales ibéricas, que junto al estudio de su dinámica poblacional y tasas demográficas, ayudarán a testar algunas hipótesis biogeográficas en un escenario de cambio global en zonas de especial vulnerabilidad (Capítulos 3, 4 y 5). Por último, mediante la comparación de ciclos de parcelas permanentes del IFN se ahondará en el conocimiento de la evolución en las últimas décadas de especies invasoras en los ecosistemas forestales del cuadrante noroccidental ibérico, uno de los más afectados por la invasión de esta flora (Capítulo 6). ABSTRACT The effects of global change on forests are one of the major concerns of the XXI century. Some of the potential impacts of global change on forest growth, productivity, biodiversity or changes in species assembly and spatial distribution may have great ecological and economic consequences. The detection and monitoring of these effects are some of the major challenges that scientists and forest managers face nowadays. Based on the comparison of historical series of the Spanish National Forest Inventory (NFI), this thesis tries to shed some light on some of the impacts driven by recent socio-economic and environmental changes on our forest ecosystems. Firstly, this thesis presents an innovative methodology based on geostatistical techniques that allows the comparison of different NFI cycles regardless of the different sampling methods used in each of them (Chapter 3). This methodology, in conjunction with other statistical techniques, allows to analyze changes in the spatial distribution and population dynamics of forest species along different geographic gradients. By its application, this thesis presents some of the first evidences of changes in species distribution along different geographical gradients in the Iberian Peninsula. The analysis of these findings, of species population dynamics and demographic rates will help to test some biogeographical hypothesis on forests under climate change scenarios in areas of particular vulnerability (Chapters 3, 4 and 5). Finally, by comparing NFI cycles with permanent plots, this thesis increases our knowledge about the patterns and processes associated with the recent evolution of invasive species in the forest ecosystems of North-western Iberia, one of the areas most affected by the invasion of allien species at national scale (Chapter 6).

Impacts of Aluminum on the Cytoskeleton of the Maize Root Apex. Short-Term Effects on the Distal Part of the Transition Zone1

Using monoclonal tubulin and actin antibodies, Al-mediated alterations to microtubules (MTs) and actin microfilaments (MFs) were shown to be most prominent in cells of the distal part of the transition zone (DTZ) of an Al-sensitive maize (Zea mays L.) cultivar. An early response to Al (1 h, 90 μm) was the depletion of MTs in cells of the DTZ, specifically in the outermost cortical cell file. However, no prominent changes to the MT cytoskeleton were found in elongating cells treated with Al for 1 h in spite of severe inhibition of root elongation. Al-induced early alterations to actin MFs were less dramatic and consisted of increased actin fluorescence of partially disintegrated MF arrays in cells of the DTZ. These tissue- and development-specific alterations to the cytoskeleton were preceded by and/or coincided with Al-induced depolarization of the plasma membrane and with callose formation, particularly in the outer cortex cells of the DTZ. Longer Al supplies (>6 h) led to progressive enhancements of lesions to the MT cytoskeleton in the epidermis and two to three outer cortex cell files. Our data show that the cytoskeleton in the cells of the DTZ is especially sensitive to Al, consistent with the recently proposed specific Al sensitivity of this unique, apical maize root zone.

Lessons from the past: Evolutionary impacts of mass extinctions

Mass extinctions have played many evolutionary roles, involving differential survivorship or selectivity of taxa and traits, the disruption or preservation of evolutionary trends and ecosystem organization, and the promotion of taxonomic and morphological diversifications—often along unexpected trajectories—after the destruction or marginalization of once-dominant clades. The fossil record suggests that survivorship during mass extinctions is not strictly random, but it often fails to coincide with factors promoting survival during times of low extinction intensity. Although of very serious concern, present-day extinctions have not yet achieved the intensities seen in the Big Five mass extinctions of the geologic past, which each removed ≥50% of the subset of relatively abundant marine invertebrate genera. The best comparisons for predictive purposes therefore will involve factors such as differential extinction intensities among regions, clades, and functional groups, rules governing postextinction biotic interchanges and evolutionary dynamics, and analyses of the factors that cause taxa and evolutionary trends to continue unabated, to suffer setbacks but resume along the same trajectory, to survive only to fall into a marginal role or disappear (“dead clade walking”), or to undergo a burst of diversification. These issues need to be addressed in a spatially explicit framework, because the fossil record suggests regional differences in postextinction diversification dynamics and biotic interchanges. Postextinction diversifications lag far behind the initial taxonomic and morphological impoverishment and homogenization; they do not simply reoccupy vacated adaptive peaks, but explore opportunities as opened and constrained by intrinsic biotic factors and the ecological and evolutionary context of the radiation.

Ecosystem impacts of three sequential hurricanes (Dennis, Floyd, and Irene) on the United States' largest lagoonal estuary, Pamlico Sound, NC

Three sequential hurricanes, Dennis, Floyd, and Irene, affected coastal North Carolina in September and October 1999. These hurricanes inundated the region with up to 1 m of rainfall, causing 50- to 500-year flooding in the watershed of the Pamlico Sound, the largest lagoonal estuary in the United States and a key West Atlantic fisheries nursery. We investigated the ecosystem-level impacts on and responses of the Sound to the floodwater discharge. Floodwaters displaced three-fourths of the volume of the Sound, depressed salinity by a similar amount, and delivered at least half of the typical annual nitrogen load to this nitrogen-sensitive ecosystem. Organic carbon concentrations in floodwaters entering Pamlico Sound via a major tributary (the Neuse River Estuary) were at least 2-fold higher than concentrations under prefloodwater conditions. A cascading set of physical, chemical, and ecological impacts followed, including strong vertical stratification, bottom water hypoxia, a sustained increase in algal biomass, displacement of many marine organisms, and a rise in fish disease. Because of the Sound's long residence time (≈1 year), we hypothesize that the effects of the short-term nutrient enrichment could prove to be multiannual. A predicted increase in the frequency of hurricane activity over the next few decades may cause longer-term biogeochemical and trophic changes in this and other estuarine and coastal habitats.

Global environmental impacts of agricultural expansion: The need for sustainable and efficient practices

The recent intensification of agriculture, and the prospects of future intensification, will have major detrimental impacts on the nonagricultural terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the world. The doubling of agricultural food production during the past 35 years was associated with a 6.87-fold increase in nitrogen fertilization, a 3.48-fold increase in phosphorus fertilization, a 1.68-fold increase in the amount of irrigated cropland, and a 1.1-fold increase in land in cultivation. Based on a simple linear extension of past trends, the anticipated next doubling of global food production would be associated with approximately 3-fold increases in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization rates, a doubling of the irrigated land area, and an 18% increase in cropland. These projected changes would have dramatic impacts on the diversity, composition, and functioning of the remaining natural ecosystems of the world, and on their ability to provide society with a variety of essential ecosystem services. The largest impacts would be on freshwater and marine ecosystems, which would be greatly eutrophied by high rates of nitrogen and phosphorus release from agricultural fields. Aquatic nutrient eutrophication can lead to loss of biodiversity, outbreaks of nuisance species, shifts in the structure of food chains, and impairment of fisheries. Because of aerial redistribution of various forms of nitrogen, agricultural intensification also would eutrophy many natural terrestrial ecosystems and contribute to atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases. These detrimental environmental impacts of agriculture can be minimized only if there is much more efficient use and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus in agroecosystems.

A Case Study of the Economic and Environmental Impacts from a Bio-fuel Facility (Southwest Georgia Ethanol, LLC) on the Surrounding Communities, Southwest Georgia

Bio-fuels such as ethanol provide an extraordinary opportunity to address our dependency on foreign oil. This case study examines the economic and environmental impacts associated with constructing and operating a dry mill ethanol manufacturing facility in a Southwest Georgia town and surrounding communities. The case study found that the plant had little impact on air quality, water quality, and habitat fragmentation. However, economic results showed the plant produced $1.5 million in tax revenues, and 86 jobs. Ethanol producers and communities must consider both the economic and environmental impacts on a local community when searching or attracting a bio-fuels plant. Likewise, communities should be aware of these challenges when attracting ethanol production plants.

Illinois Phosphorus Effluent Limits: Minimizing the Impacts Through the Use of Non-point Controls at the Springbrook Water Reclamation Center in Naperville, Illinois

Phosphorus pollution is a major concern in Illinois. Excessive amounts of phosphorus can be detrimental to water bodies. To help control phosphorus, the Illinois Pollution Control Board has proposed phosphorus limits on wastewater treatment facility discharges. If enacted, these limits will have negative impacts on the Springbrook Water Reclamation Center in Naperville, Illinois. To minimize these impacts, Naperville can utilize various non-point controls recommended in this paper to decrease the amount of phosphorus entering into the DuPage River and the Springbrook Water Reclamation Center. While these controls will not reduce levels low enough to totally satisfy limits on phosphorus discharges, they will significantly reduce the treatment costs Naperville will need to expend to meet them and be more environmentally effective.

The Impacts of National Culture on Safety Culture in the Global Oil and Gas Industry

Safety culture is one of the most-studied subjects in the safety literature today, although no agreement exists on exactly what it means. Most safety culture research has been conducted in high-hazard industries such as nuclear power, aviation, and offshore oil and gas production. Only limited research has investigated links between safety culture and the prevailing national culture. This paper proposes that efforts to build safety culture and improve safety performance in the global oil and gas industry will be enhanced if the safety culture maturity and the prevailing national culture are assessed and a location-specific plan is developed based on these factors. A model plan to improve safety performance for one multinational oil and gas company is presented.

Managing Recreational Impacts on the Northeast corner of the Lake Fayetteville Nature Trail in Fayetteville, AR

Increased population growth of the Northwest Corner of Arkansas is straining the natural resources of the Lake Fayetteville Nature Trail, Fayetteville, AR. Recreational activities conducted on this single track multi-use trail are mountain biking, walking, jogging and wildlife viewing. Impacts evident on the NE section of the trail consist of erosion, vegetation, wildlife and conflict disturbances. Throughout this paper recommendations of management solutions and maintenance ideas are presented. Control of recreation impacts will help the longevity of the trail and maintain the aesthetics for present and future trail users.

The "other" cities: urban planning and architecture for tourism: the case of the Spanish Mediterranean (1945-1975)

There we analyce the first touristic nucleus arouse in the Spanish Mediterranean coast between World War II and the Petroleum Crisis (1945-75). Special attention is payed to the characteristics of these new villages: the relation of their urban frame with nature -original or artificial- and the lack of industry. We make a distintion of three types: cluster nucleus (La Manga and El Saler), tridimentional urbanism (Playa de San Juan y Urbanova) and extreme typologies (Campoamor and Benidorm). With them the cities for vacations are discovered, mainly for second home purpouse (vacation home/holiday home). The panorama after the current crisis is a lineal chain of small urban settlements on the coast. Finally, Finally, we can see how these "secondary cities" without industry and specialized in leisure, are developing to our days until become new cities of services, doubling the existing ones; now they are "the other cities".

The evolution of mass tourism destinations: new approaches beyond deterministic models in Benidorm (Spain)

Although deterministic models of the evolution of mass tourism coastal resorts predict an almost inevitable decline over time, theoretical frameworks of the evolution and restructuring policies of mature destinations should be revised to reflect the complex and dynamic way in which these destinations evolve and interact with the tourism market and global socio-economic environment. The present study examines Benidorm because its urban and tourism model and large-scale tourism supply and demand make it one of the most unique destinations on the Mediterranean coast. The investigation reveals the need to adopt theories and models that are not purely deterministic. The dialectic interplay between external factors and the internal factors inherent in this destination simultaneously reveals a complex and diverse stage of maturity and the ability of destinations to create their own future.

Tourism potential analysis of the castles of Vinalopó, Spain: an opportunity for social and tourist development of cultural heritage

Within the overall framework of the renewal process of coastal tourist destinations, cultural heritage has frequently been used as a key argument for the introduction and development of strategies for the diversification and differentiation of the traditional tourist product based on sun and sand. This is the situation of the province of Alicante, identified with the Costa Blanca geotourism brand, where there are important economic issues that could contribute to the renewal of this coastal tourist destination. One of the most significant heritage values of this space consists of a series of medieval fortresses located along the axis of the Vinalopó River, which has acted since prehistoric times as a natural route from within the provincial mainland to the coast. It is precisely the argument of this historical, territorial and landscape content that has been used repeatedly in recent years to develop initiatives aimed at the creation of a tourist product, currently inexistent, based on the route of the castles of Vinalopó. This communication aims to analyse the degree of tourism potential of the fortresses located in the towns of Biar, Banyeres de Mariola, Sax, Villena, Novelda, Elda, Petrer and Elche, which constitute the core of municipalities where these medieval fortresses are located, finally pointing out some proposals for the creation of a heritage tourism product.