Fertility in Namibia : Changes in fertility levels in North-Central Namibia 1960-2001, including an assessment of the impact of HIV

The aim of this study was to estimate the development of fertility in North-Central Namibia, former Ovamboland, from 1960 to 2001. Special attention was given to the onset of fertility decline and to the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility. An additional aim was to introduce parish registers as a source of data for fertility research in Africa. Data used consisted of parish registers from Evangelical Lutheran congregations, the 1991 and 2001 Population and Housing Censuses, the 1992 and 2000 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys, and the HIV sentinel surveillances of 1992-2004. Both period and cohort fertility were analysed. The P/F ratio method was used when analysing census data. The impact of HIV infection on fertility was estimated indirectly by comparing the fertility histories of women who died at an age of less than 50 years with the fertility of other women. The impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility was assessed both among infected women and in the general population. Fertility in the study population began to decline in 1980. The decline was rapid during the 1980s, levelled off in the early 1990s at the end of war of independence and then continued to decline until the end of the study period. According to parish registers, total fertility was 6.4 in the 1960s and 6.5 in the 1970s, and declined to 5.1 in the 1980s and 4.2 in the 1990s. Adjustment of these total fertility rates to correspond to levels of fertility based on data from the 1991 and 2001 censuses resulted in total fertility declining from 7.6 in 1960-79 to 6.0 in 1980-89, and to 4.9 in 1990-99. The decline was associated with increased age at first marriage, declining marital fertility and increasing premarital fertility. Fertility among adolescents increased, whereas the fertility of women in all other age groups declined. During the 1980s, the war of independence contributed to declining fertility through spousal separation and delayed marriages. Contraception has been employed in the study region since the 1980s, but in the early 1990s, use of contraceptives was still so limited that fertility was higher in North-Central Namibia than in other regions of the country. In the 1990s, fertility decline was largely a result of the increased prevalence of contraception. HIV prevalence among pregnant women increased from 4% in 1992 to 25% in 2001. In 2001, total fertility among HIV-infected women (3.7) was lower than that among other women (4.8), resulting in total fertility of 4.4 among the general population in 2001. The HIV epidemic explained more than a quarter of the decline in total fertility at population level during most of the 1990s. The HIV epidemic also reduced the number of children born by reducing the number of potential mothers. In the future, HIV will have an extensive influence on both the size and age structure of the Namibian population. Although HIV influences demographic development through both fertility and mortality, the effect through changes in fertility will be smaller than the effect through mortality. In the study region, as in some other regions of southern Africa, a new type of demographic transition is under way, one in which population growth stagnates or even reverses because of the combined effects of declining fertility and increasing mortality, both of which are consequences of the HIV pandemic.

Stock assessment of loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles and An assessment of the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on the loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic

On September 7, 2000 the National Marine Fisheries Service announced that it was reinitiating consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act on pelagic fisheries for swordfish, sharks, tunas, and billfish. 1 Bycatch of a protected sea turtle species is considered a take under the Endangered Species Act (PL93-205). On June 30, 2000 NMFS completed a Biological Opinion on an amendment to the Highly Migratory Pelagic Fisheries Management Plan that concluded that the continued operation of the pelagic longline fishery was likely to jeopardize the continued existence of loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles.2 Since that Biological Opinion was issued NMFS concluded that further analyses of observer data and additional population modeling of loggerhead sea turtles was needed to determine more precisely the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on turtles. 3,4 Hence, the reinitiation of consultation. The documents that follow constitute the scientific review and synthesis of information pertaining to the narrowly defined reinitiation of consultation: the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles The document is in 3 parts, plus 5 appendices. Part I is a stock assessment of loggerhead sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic. Part II is a stock assessment of leatherback sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic. Part III is an assessment of the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic. These documents were prepared by the NMFS Southeast Fisheries Science Center staff and academic colleagues at Duke University and Dalhousie University. Personnel involved from the SEFSC include Joanne Braun-McNeill, Lisa Csuzdi, Craig Brown, Jean Cramer, Sheryan Epperly, Steve Turner, Wendy Teas, Nancy Thompson, Wayne Witzell, Cynthia Yeung, and also Jeff Schmid under contract from the University or Miami. Our academic colleagues, Ransom Myers, Keith Bowen, and Leah Gerber from Dalhousie University and Larry Crowder and Melissa Snover from Duke University, also recipients of a Pew Charitable Trust Grant for a Comprehensive Study of the Ecological Impacts of the Worldwide Pelagic Longline Industry, made significant contributions to the quantitative analyses and we are very grateful for their collaboration. We appreciate the reviews of the stock definition sections on loggerheads and leatherbacks by Brian Bowen, University of Florida, and Peter Dutton, National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center, respectively, and the comments of the NMFS Center of Independent Experts reviewers Robert Mohn, Ian Poiner, and YouGan Wang on the entire document. We also wish to acknowledge all the unpublished data used herein which were contributed by many researchers, especially the coordinators and volunteers of the nesting beach surveys and the sea turtle stranding and salvage network and the contributors to the Cooperative Marine Turtle Tagging Program. (PDF contains 349 pages)

The impact of molecular biology on assessment of water quality: advantages and limitations of current techniques

The advent of molecular biology has had a dramatic impact on all aspects of biology, not least applied microbial ecology. Microbiological testing of water has traditionally depended largely on culture techniques. Growing understanding that only a small proportion of microbial species are culturable, and that many microorganisms may attain a viable but non-culturable state, has promoted the development of novel approaches to monitoring pathogens in the environment. This has been paralleled by an increased awareness of the surprising genetic diversity of natural microbial populations. By targeting gene sequences that are specific for particular microorganisms, for example genes that encode diagnostic enzymes, or species-specific domains of conserved genes such as 16S ribosomal RNA coding sequences (rrn genes), the problems of culture can be avoided. Technical developments, notably in the area of in vitro amplification of DNA using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR), now permit routine detection and identification of specific microorganisms, even when present in very low numbers. Although the techniques of molecular biology have provided some very powerful tools for environmental microbiology, it should not be forgotten that these have their own drawbacks and biases in sampling. For example, molecular techniques are dependent on efficient lysis and recovery of nucleic acids from both vegetative forms and spores of microbial species that may differ radically when growing in the laboratory compared with the natural environment. Furthermore, PCR amplification can introduce its own bias depending on the nature of the oligonucleotide primers utilised. However, despite these potential caveats, it seems likely that a molecular biological approach, particularly with its potential for automation, will provide the mainstay of diagnostic technology for the foreseeable future.

Assessment of impact of ten days fishing ban in the major spawning grounds of hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha, Fisher and Bianchi, 1984)

A study was undertaken to find out the impact of ten days fishing ban in the major spawning grounds of hilsa during October to December. The study revealed a positive impact of fishing ban during spawning season on reproduction success of hilsa. Proportionate distribution of male and female hilsa also showed a significant level of distribution in and around the spawning grounds where the ratio was 35:65. Percent of oozing hilsa during fishing ban period in the spawning grounds was observed 1.61%. About 5% spent hilsa was observed in the fish landing centers and was compared with the data of Global Environment Facility (GEF) and Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute (BFRI) studies and was found about 2.80-3.57 times higher than that of the findings of 2002 and 2003. Estimated egg production value showed about 46,800 Kg of eggs could have been produced that indicating a positive impact of 10 days fishing ban in spawning season. Abundance of higher percentages of gravid hilsa was found which were not available in the same quantity and condition in the non-fishing ban period. During the present investigation, fairly higher amount of spent hilsa and juveniles were also observed in the spawning grounds. Along with the jatka fry, spawn and fries of other fishes were also found in higher quantity than the previous years and thus it is assumed that fishing ban also might have positive impact on the successful breeding of other fishes. Overall, the fishing ban was found effective for successful breeding of hilsa.

Assessment of the impact of computed and measured fire environments on building evacuation using bench and real scale test data

This study investigates the use of computer modelled versus directly experimentally determined fire hazard data for assessing survivability within buildings using evacuation models incorporating Fractionally Effective Dose (FED) models. The objective is to establish a link between effluent toxicity, measured using a variety of small and large scale tests, and building evacuation. For the scenarios under consideration, fire simulation is typically used to determine the time non-survivable conditions develop within the enclosure, for example, when smoke or toxic effluent falls below a critical height which is deemed detrimental to evacuation or when the radiative fluxes reach a critical value leading to the onset of flashover. The evacuation calculation would the be used to determine whether people within the structure could evacuate before these critical conditions develop.

The impact on students of coursework assessment deadlines and penalties

The use by students of an e-learning system that enhances traditional learning in a large university computing school where there are clear assessment deadlines and severe penalties for late submission of coursework is examined to assess the impact of changes to the deadline model on the way students use the system and on the results they achieve. It is demonstrated that the grade a student achieves is partly dependent on the time before the deadline when the work is completed - in general, students who submit earlier gain higher grades. Possible reasons for this are explored. Analysis of the data from a range of different implementations of deadline policies is presented. Suggestions are made on how to minimise any possible negative impact of the assessment policy on the student's overall learning.

Socialising young literacy learners into a discourse of failure: Dominant discourses in literacy teaching and assessment and their impact on the progression of young literacy learners into employment

This paper argues that contemporary literacy programmes are a mismatch for the expectations of both the government and employers as well as the goals of learners. It submits that the dominant discourses in literacy provision have led to the emergence of a learning culture which not only fails the learners but is also incapable of meeting the aspirations of both the government and employers. To support this argument, the paper reports a small scale research project that analyses the perceptions of learners, teachers and employers who were involved in a work placement scheme for young literacy learners in a college of further education. Data for the study were collected through focus group and face to face interviews and analysed using the framework of discourse analysis provided by Gill (2000) with findings codified and analysed thematically. The study found that teachers were aware that their learners were not adequately prepared for the world of work because of the demands of the dominant discourses of quality and performance measurement which were most obviously manifested in their assessment, teaching methods and the attitudes of learners. It found that employers perceive young learners as inadequate in terms of the workplace expectations. Learners in the study revealed that their workplace culture and expectations were totally different from the culture to which they had been socialised in their studies. The study concludes that unless the dominance of these discourses is ameliorated, young literacy learners will continue to be socialised into a discourse of failure.

Optical assessment of impact and recovery of sedimentary pH profiles in ocean acidification and carbon capture and storage research

Available methods for measuring the impact of ocean acidification (OA) and leakage from carbon capture and storage (CCS) on marine sedimentary pH profiles are unsuitable for replicated experimental setups. To overcome this issue, a novel optical sensor application is presented, using off-the-shelf optode technology (MOPP). The application is validated using microprofiling, during a CCS leakage experiment, where the impact and recovery from a high CO2 plume was investigated in two types of natural marine sediment. MOPP offered user-friendliness, speed of data acquisition, robustness to sediment type, and large sediment depth range. This ensemble of characteristics overcomes many of the challenges found with other pH measuring methods, in OA and CCS research. The impact varied greatly between sediment types, depending on baseline pH variability and sediment permeability. Sedimentary pH profile recovery was quick, with profiles close to control conditions 24 h after the cessation of the leak. However, variability of pH within the finer sediment was still apparent 4 days into the recovery phase. Habitat characteristics need therefore to be considered, to truly disentangle high CO2 perturbation impacts on benthic systems. Impacts on natural communities depend not only on the pH gradient caused by perturbation, but also on other processes that outlive the perturbation, adding complexity to recovery.