Design thinking and the precautionary principle : development of a theoretical model complementing preventive judgment for design for sustainability enriched through a study of architectural competitions adopting LEED

Cette thèse contribue à une théorie générale de la conception du projet. S’inscrivant dans une demande marquée par les enjeux du développement durable, l’objectif principal de cette recherche est la contribution d’un modèle théorique de la conception permettant de mieux situer l’utilisation des outils et des normes d’évaluation de la durabilité d’un projet. Les principes fondamentaux de ces instruments normatifs sont analysés selon quatre dimensions : ontologique, méthodologique, épistémologique et téléologique. Les indicateurs de certains effets contre-productifs reliés, en particulier, à la mise en compte de ces normes confirment la nécessité d’une théorie du jugement qualitatif. Notre hypothèse principale prend appui sur le cadre conceptuel offert par la notion de « principe de précaution » dont les premières formulations remontent du début des années 1970, et qui avaient précisément pour objectif de remédier aux défaillances des outils et méthodes d’évaluation scientifique traditionnelles. La thèse est divisée en cinq parties. Commençant par une revue historique des modèles classiques des théories de la conception (design thinking) elle se concentre sur l’évolution des modalités de prise en compte de la durabilité. Dans cette perspective, on constate que les théories de la « conception verte » (green design) datant du début des années 1960 ou encore, les théories de la « conception écologique » (ecological design) datant des années 1970 et 1980, ont finalement convergé avec les récentes théories de la «conception durable» (sustainable design) à partir du début des années 1990. Les différentes approches du « principe de précaution » sont ensuite examinées sous l’angle de la question de la durabilité du projet. Les standards d’évaluation des risques sont comparés aux approches utilisant le principe de précaution, révélant certaines limites lors de la conception d’un projet. Un premier modèle théorique de la conception intégrant les principales dimensions du principe de précaution est ainsi esquissé. Ce modèle propose une vision globale permettant de juger un projet intégrant des principes de développement durable et se présente comme une alternative aux approches traditionnelles d’évaluation des risques, à la fois déterministes et instrumentales. L’hypothèse du principe de précaution est dès lors proposée et examinée dans le contexte spécifique du projet architectural. Cette exploration débute par une présentation de la notion classique de «prudence» telle qu’elle fut historiquement utilisée pour guider le jugement architectural. Qu’en est-il par conséquent des défis présentés par le jugement des projets d’architecture dans la montée en puissance des méthodes d’évaluation standardisées (ex. Leadership Energy and Environmental Design; LEED) ? La thèse propose une réinterprétation de la théorie de la conception telle que proposée par Donald A. Schön comme une façon de prendre en compte les outils d’évaluation tels que LEED. Cet exercice révèle cependant un obstacle épistémologique qui devra être pris en compte dans une reformulation du modèle. En accord avec l’épistémologie constructiviste, un nouveau modèle théorique est alors confronté à l’étude et l’illustration de trois concours d'architecture canadienne contemporains ayant adopté la méthode d'évaluation de la durabilité normalisée par LEED. Une série préliminaire de «tensions» est identifiée dans le processus de la conception et du jugement des projets. Ces tensions sont ensuite catégorisées dans leurs homologues conceptuels, construits à l’intersection du principe de précaution et des théories de la conception. Ces tensions se divisent en quatre catégories : (1) conceptualisation - analogique/logique; (2) incertitude - épistémologique/méthodologique; (3) comparabilité - interprétation/analytique, et (4) proposition - universalité/ pertinence contextuelle. Ces tensions conceptuelles sont considérées comme autant de vecteurs entrant en corrélation avec le modèle théorique qu’elles contribuent à enrichir sans pour autant constituer des validations au sens positiviste du terme. Ces confrontations au réel permettent de mieux définir l’obstacle épistémologique identifié précédemment. Cette thèse met donc en évidence les impacts généralement sous-estimés, des normalisations environnementales sur le processus de conception et de jugement des projets. Elle prend pour exemple, de façon non restrictive, l’examen de concours d'architecture canadiens pour bâtiments publics. La conclusion souligne la nécessité d'une nouvelle forme de « prudence réflexive » ainsi qu’une utilisation plus critique des outils actuels d’évaluation de la durabilité. Elle appelle une instrumentalisation fondée sur l'intégration globale, plutôt que sur l'opposition des approches environnementales.

Personalized 3D reconstruction of the rib cage for clinical assessment of trunk deformities

Scoliosis is a 3D deformity of the spine and rib cage. Extensive validation of 3D reconstruction methods of the spine from biplanar radiography has already been published. In this article, we propose a novel method to reconstruct the rib cage, using the same biplanar views as for the 3D reconstruction of the spine, to allow clinical assessment of whole trunk deformities. This technique uses a semi-automatic segmentation of the ribs in the postero-anterior X-ray view and an interactive segmentation of partial rib edges in the lateral view. The rib midlines are automatically extracted in 2D and reconstructed in 3D using the epipolar geometry. For the ribs not visible in the lateral view, the method predicts their 3D shape. The accuracy of the proposed method has been assessed using data obtained from a synthetic bone model as a gold standard and has also been evaluated using data of real patients with scoliotic deformities. Results show that the reconstructed ribs enable a reliable evaluation of the rib axial rotation, which will allow a 3D clinical assessment of the spine and rib cage deformities.

Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Service quality and reliability assessment of mobile communication infrastructure

The service quality of any sector has two major aspects namely technical and functional. Technical quality can be attained by maintaining technical specification as decided by the organization. Functional quality refers to the manner which service is delivered to customer which can be assessed by the customer feed backs. A field survey was conducted based on the management tool SERVQUAL, by designing 28 constructs under 7 dimensions of service quality. Stratified sampling techniques were used to get 336 valid responses and the gap scores of expectations and perceptions are analyzed using statistical techniques to identify the weakest dimension. To assess the technical aspects of availability six months live outage data of base transceiver were collected. The statistical and exploratory techniques were used to model the network performance. The failure patterns have been modeled in competing risk models and probability distribution of service outage and restorations were parameterized. Since the availability of network is a function of the reliability and maintainability of the network elements, any service provider who wishes to keep up their service level agreements on availability should be aware of the variability of these elements and its effects on interactions. The availability variations were studied by designing a discrete time event simulation model with probabilistic input parameters. The probabilistic distribution parameters arrived from live data analysis was used to design experiments to define the availability domain of the network under consideration. The availability domain can be used as a reference for planning and implementing maintenance activities. A new metric is proposed which incorporates a consistency index along with key service parameters that can be used to compare the performance of different service providers. The developed tool can be used for reliability analysis of mobile communication systems and assumes greater significance in the wake of mobile portability facility. It is also possible to have a relative measure of the effectiveness of different service providers.

“Assessment of Heavy Metals in the Environmental Compartments of the Central and Northern Coast of Kerala, India”

The nearshore marine ecosystem is a dynamic environment impacted by many activities, especially the coastal waters and sediments contiguous to major urban areas. Although heavy metals are natural constituents of the marine environment, inputs are considered to be conservative pollutants and are potentially toxic, accumulate in the sediment, are bioconcentrated by organisms and may cause health problems to humans via the food chain. A variety of metals in trace amounts are essential for biological processes in all organisms, but excessive levels can be detrimental by acting as enzyme inhibitors. Discharge of industrial wastewater, agriculture runoff and untreated sewage pose a particularly serious threat to the coastal environment of Kerala, but there is a dearth of studies in documenting the contaminant metals. This study aimed principally to assess such contamination by examining the results of heavy metal (Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Zn, Cd and Hg) analysis in seawater, sediment and benthic biota from a survey of five transects along the central and northern coast of Kerala in 2008 covering a 10.0 km stretch of near shore environment in each transect. Trophic transfer of metal contaminants from aquatic invertebrates to its predators was also assessed, by employing a suitable benthic food chain model in order to understand which all metals are undergoing biotransference (transfer of metals from a food source to consumer).The study of present contamination levels will be useful for potential environmental remediation and ecosystem restoration at contaminated sites and provides a scientific basis for standards and protective measures for the coastal waters and sediments. The usefulness of biomonitor proposed in this study would allow identification of different bioavailable metals as well as provide an assessment of the magnitude of metal contamination in the coastal marine milieu. The increments in concentration of certain metals between the predator and prey discerned through benthic food chain can be interpreted as evidence of biotransference.

Regional climate model applications on sub-regional scales over the Indian monsoon region: The role of domain size on downscaling uncertainty

Regional climate models are becoming increasingly popular to provide high resolution climate change information for impacts assessments to inform adaptation options. Many countries and provinces requiring these assessments are as small as 200,000 km2 in size, significantly smaller than an ideal domain needed for successful applications of one-way nested regional climate models. Therefore assessments on sub-regional scales (e.g., river basins) are generally carried out using climate change simulations performed for relatively larger regions. Here we show that the seasonal mean hydrological cycle and the day-to-day precipitation variations of a sub-region within the model domain are sensitive to the domain size, even though the large scale circulation features over the region are largely insensitive. On seasonal timescales, the relatively smaller domains intensify the hydrological cycle by increasing the net transport of moisture into the study region and thereby enhancing the precipitation and local recycling of moisture. On daily timescales, the simulations run over smaller domains produce higher number of moderate precipitation days in the sub-region relative to the corresponding larger domain simulations. An assessment of daily variations of water vapor and the vertical velocity within the sub-region indicates that the smaller domains may favor more frequent moderate uplifting and subsequent precipitation in the region. The results remained largely insensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model, indicating the robustness of the domain size influence on the regional model solutions. These domain size dependent precipitation characteristics have the potential to add one more level of uncertainty to the downscaled projections.

Assessment of Energy Conservation in Indian Cement Industry and Forecasting of Co2 Emissions

Cement industry ranks 2nd in energy consumption among the industries in India. It is one of the major emitter of CO2, due to combustion of fossil fuel and calcination process. As the huge amount of CO2 emissions cause severe environment problems, the efficient and effective utilization of energy is a major concern in Indian cement industry. The main objective of the research work is to assess the energy cosumption and energy conservation of the Indian cement industry and to predict future trends in cement production and reduction of CO2 emissions. In order to achieve this objective, a detailed energy and exergy analysis of a typical cement plant in Kerala was carried out. The data on fuel usage, electricity consumption, amount of clinker and cement production were also collected from a few selected cement industries in India for the period 2001 - 2010 and the CO2 emissions were estimated. A complete decomposition method was used for the analysis of change in CO2 emissions during the period 2001 - 2010 by categorising the cement industries according to the specific thermal energy consumption. A basic forecasting model for the cement production trend was developed by using the system dynamic approach and the model was validated with the data collected from the selected cement industries. The cement production and CO2 emissions from the industries were also predicted with the base year as 2010. The sensitivity analysis of the forecasting model was conducted and found satisfactory. The model was then modified for the total cement production in India to predict the cement production and CO2 emissions for the next 21 years under three different scenarios. The parmeters that influence CO2 emissions like population and GDP growth rate, demand of cement and its production, clinker consumption and energy utilization are incorporated in these scenarios. The existing growth rate of the population and cement production in the year 2010 were used in the baseline scenario. In the scenario-1 (S1) the growth rate of population was assumed to be gradually decreasing and finally reach zero by the year 2030, while in scenario-2 (S2) a faster decline in the growth rate was assumed such that zero growth rate is achieved in the year 2020. The mitigation strategiesfor the reduction of CO2 emissions from the cement production were identified and analyzed in the energy management scenarioThe energy and exergy analysis of the raw mill of the cement plant revealed that the exergy utilization was worse than energy utilization. The energy analysis of the kiln system showed that around 38% of heat energy is wasted through exhaust gases of the preheater and cooler of the kiln sysetm. This could be recovered by the waste heat recovery system. A secondary insulation shell was also recommended for the kiln in the plant in order to prevent heat loss and enhance the efficiency of the plant. The decomposition analysis of the change in CO2 emissions during 2001- 2010 showed that the activity effect was the main factor for CO2 emissions for the cement industries since it is directly dependent on economic growth of the country. The forecasting model showed that 15.22% and 29.44% of CO2 emissions reduction can be achieved by the year 2030 in scenario- (S1) and scenario-2 (S2) respectively. In analysing the energy management scenario, it was assumed that 25% of electrical energy supply to the cement plants is replaced by renewable energy. The analysis revealed that the recovery of waste heat and the use of renewable energy could lead to decline in CO2 emissions 7.1% for baseline scenario, 10.9 % in scenario-1 (S1) and 11.16% in scenario-2 (S2) in 2030. The combined scenario considering population stabilization by the year 2020, 25% of contribution from renewable energy sources of the cement industry and 38% thermal energy from the waste heat streams shows that CO2 emissions from Indian cement industry could be reduced by nearly 37% in the year 2030. This would reduce a substantial level of greenhouse gas load to the environment. The cement industry will remain one of the critical sectors for India to meet its CO2 emissions reduction target. India’s cement production will continue to grow in the near future due to its GDP growth. The control of population, improvement in plant efficiency and use of renewable energy are the important options for the mitigation of CO2 emissions from Indian cement industries

Yield gap analysis and assessment of climate-induced yield trends of irrigated rice in selected provinces of the Philippines

This study describes a combined empirical/modeling approach to assess the possible impact of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines. We collated climate data of the last two decades (1985-2002) as well as yield statistics of six provinces of the Philippines, selected along a North-South gradient. Data from the climate information system of NASA were used as input parameters of the model ORYZA2000 to determine potential yields and, in the next steps, the yield gaps defined as the difference between potential and actual yields. Both simulated and actual yields of irrigated rice varied strongly between years. However, no climate-driven trends were apparent and the variability in actual yields showed no correlation with climatic parameters. The observed variation in simulated yields was attributable to seasonal variations in climate (dry/wet season) and to climatic differences between provinces and agro-ecological zones. The actual yield variation between provinces was not related to differences in the climatic yield potential but rather to soil and management factors. The resulting yield gap was largest in remote and infrastructurally disfavored provinces (low external input use) with a high production potential (high solar radiation and day-night temperature differences). In turn, the yield gap was lowest in central provinces with good market access but with a relatively low climatic yield potential. We conclude that neither long-term trends nor the variability of the climate can explain current rice yield trends and that agroecological, seasonal, and management effects are over-riding any possible climatic variations. On the other hand the lack of a climate-driven trend in the present situation may be superseded by ongoing climate change in the future.

Implementation of Response to Intervention (RtI) Model in Spain : An example of a collaboration between Canarian universities and the department of education of the Canary Islands

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

An exploratory assessment of the potential impact of the free trade area of the americas on the andean community

A través de una simulación llevada a cabo con GTAP, este documento presenta una evaluación preliminar del impacto potencial que el Área de Libre Comercio de las Américas tendría sobre la Comunidad Andina de Naciones. Mantenido por la Universidad de Purdue, el GTAP es un modelo multiregional de equilibrio general, ampliamente usado para el análisis de temas de economía internacional. El experimento llevado a cabo tiene lugar en un ambiente de competencia perfecta y rendimientos constantes a escala y consiste en la completa eliminación de aranceles a las importaciones de bienes entre los países del Hemisferio Occidental. Los resultados muestran la presencia de modestas pero positivas ganancias netas de bienestar para la Comunidad Andina, generadas fundamentalmente por mejoras en la asignación de recursos. Movimientos desfavorables en los términos de intercambio y el efecto de la desviación de comercio con respecto a terceros países, reducen considerablemente las ganancias potenciales de bienestar. De la misma forma, la existencia de distorsiones económicas al interior de la Comunidad Andina tiene un efecto negativo sobre el bienestar. El patrón de comercio aumenta su grado de concentración en el comercio bilateral con los Estados Unidos y la remuneración real a los factores productivos presenta mejoras con la implementación de la zona de libre comercio.

Cap a un model per interpretar i facilitar l'aprendre: estratègies i recursos per a la reflexió-acció en i des de la pràctica

1.- L'enquadrament d'aquest treball de recerca s'ha fet en i des de la praxis. EI que interessa és descobrir i proposar instruments pedagògics d'ajuda, assequibles i contextualitzats, especialment en el terreny de la comunicació i la interacció Educador-Educand. La metodologia que s'ha fet servir és de caire qualitatiu, etnogràfic, en un enfocament basat en la investigació-acció. La visió de la persona és volgudament holística; els sentiments, els significats, I' orientació personal, I' autodirecció. esdevenen elements centrals. La hipòtesi de treball, en la qual es fonamenta la recerca, podria formular-se així: 'En la pràctica, els Educadors, d'una forma més o menys reflexiva, perceben i interpreten el procés d'aprendre dels Educands; hi intervenen, el mediatitzen; n'avaluen la direcció i l'encert". A partir d'aquest supòsit, l'investigador veu convenient donar resposta a tres qüestions centrals: A) Com comprenem i interpretem els Educadors el procés d'aprendre dels Educands?; B) Quin tipus d'intervenció resultarà adient per promoure i/o facilitar l'aprendre?; C) Amb quins instruments i estratègies comptem per ajudar pedagògicament? 2.- Per llegir l'aprendre, l'investigador fa ús d'un model mental, indispensable per ordenar les dades de l'experiència. Convé, per tant, explicitar-lo, fer-ne ciència, coneixement compartit. En aquesta direcció de treball se li plantegen dos tipus d'interrogants: A) Quins són els elements comuns a qualsevol experiència d'aprenentatge?; Quina mena d'activitat o experiència personal desenvolupen tots els Educands; i B) Com es manifesta aquesta experiència? Amb quins indicadors? Quina mena de "text" llegeix l'Educador per orientar la seva intervenció d'ajuda? 3.- L'aprenentatge. en aquest treball, és considerat per l'investigador com la resultant de tres processos personals: el posicionament, l'estratègia i l'avaluació. Quan l'Educador vol compartir amb l'Educand el seu procés idiosincràtic d'aprendre, procura reconstruir amb ell aquestes tres accions bàsiques: A) Com es posiciona: què tem o desitja, què creu, què espera, quines expectatives viu, com es motiva? B) Quines són les seves pautes d'actuació: com treballa, com memoritza, com recupera la informació que té a la memòria, què fa davant d'un problema... ? C) Què busca; què és important per a ella; què pretén... ? 4.- Davant la complexitat dels missatges emesos per l'Educand l'investigador opta per llegir tres tipus de "textos": els productes i els resultats; les conductes; i els missatges parlats. Entre tots tres, pensa, podrà trobar elements i indicadors adequats per fonamentar, sempre hipotèticament, la seva actuació pedagògica. 5.- Procura sobretot detectar i fer existir els èxits, aquells productes i/o resultats que l'Educand troba valuosos, per tal d'ajudar-lo a prendre consciència dels seu repertori personal d'estratègies i capacitats. En aquest àmbit es proposen tres actituds o enfocaments del treball d'ajuda: A) El primer fa referència a la presa de consciència de l'estratègia personal, que s'amaga darrera el producte valorat. B) El segon apunta cap al respecte per l'estratègia que cadascú executa i, per tant, li és familiar. L'Educand la necessita. Es la seva. Es troba en la seva experiència, encara que no necessàriament existeixi en la seva construcció conscient. C) El tercer ,el duu a valorar l'estratègia d'acord amb les finalitats de l'Educand. La seva adequació es legitima pel que es proposa. Partim del supòsit que tota conducta es troba dirigida per un propòsit a vegades difícil de copsar i no sempre recomanable per a l'Educand. 6.- La conducta percebuda de l'Educand és entesa com un missatge, un conjunt d'indicadors de la seva activitat contextualitzada, interna i externa; missatge que, en relació amb altres, com els productes i les verbalitzacions, manifesta fragments dels seus significats, projectes, estratègies, valors. Es fa un èmfasi especial en les conductes "internes", els gestos mentals, l'acció interior, tramesa per mitja de microcomportaments sovint no conscient, i certificada per mitjà de la verbalització del viscut. 7.- Parlar amb l'Educand suposa dues menes d'accions: escoltar i emetre. Escoltem per comprendre; emetem per perfilar la comprensió i també per ajudar. En l'emissió, el missatge pedagògic té dues funcions: a) rellançar i orientar el pensament i l'autoexploració de l'Educand; i b) influir per tal que desenvolupi amb èxit el seu projecte d'aprendre. Interessa d'una manera especial ajudar a integrar en la consciència de l'Educand aquests elements de la seva experiència que poden facilitar-li l'adquisició del coneixement. I entenem que, en aquesta empresa, la paraula i la interacció verbal poden tenir-hi un joc important. Per aquesta raó s'ha considerat necessari oferir un model d'anàlisi de la interacció i els missatges verbals. 8.- "Les persones aprenen sempre, amb recursos, processos i sistemes de valoració idiosincràtics, per fa qual cosa la seva orientació en el context esdevé un referent central en el disseny de l'ajuda pedagògica i en la seva avaluació". Aquesta és la hipòtesi de sortida per dissenyar la intervenció pedagògica. Tothom aprèn, inevitablement; la qüestió és quina cosa està aprenent i de quina manera els seus resultats d'ara són mediatitzats per l'experiència passada i, alhora, condicionen el seu aprendre futur. L'aprenent es posiciona, anticipa el procés d' aprendre, valora la seva. capacitat per desenvolupar-lo amb èxit, es motiva en una determinada direcció, d'acord amb la seva experiència, els seus aprenentatges anteriors. Executa estratègies, mostra un tipus d'intel·ligència, una forma personal de processar la informació. Pretén quelcom. És un sistema obert en relació amb el medi: hi ha uns valors que dirigeixen la seva presa de decisions. Utilitza uns criteris propis, una gamma personal d'opcions conscients. Avalua el que fa, el resultat que obté i la seva capacitat personal. 9.- L'ajuda pedagògica que I' autor proposa s'encamina sobretot a facilitar en l'Educand la descoberta dels seus propis recursos. Es tracta de portar-lo cap a la consideració atenta de la seva pròpia experiència, per amplificar-la i fer-la existir com a recurs conscient . Ha dibuixat i experimentat tres conjunts d'intervenció cadascun enfocat vers un àmbit de l'experiència d'aprendre, el qual col·loca com a prioritari, sense oblidar qualsevol dels altres que pugui ser rellevant, per comprendre o ajudar. A) Intervenció sobre el posicionament. En aquest àmbit enfoca l'estil de motivació que executa l'Educand, mira de corregir-lo, si cal, a partir de l'anàlisi i la comprensió de les seves formes de motivar-se quan ell viu l'èxit. Treballa proposant objectius paradoxals de fracàs gairebé impossible, buscant l'assoliment de petits èxits, potser aparentment insignificants, però estratègics; prescriu l'automatisme, per modificar-lo si l'Educand ho desitja; comprova el procés d'anticipació de I' experiència que l'aprenent es construeix per orientar-se; l'ajuda a contextualitzar anticipació i a fer ús dels seus Ilenguatges interns més eficaços i còmodes;... B) Intervenció sobre les estratègies i processos. En un segon enfocament, no necessàriament posterior al descrit, considera les estratègies de I'Educand, també a partir dels seus encerts i èxits. Mira de portar-lo cap a fa descripció i presa de consciència de les seves maneres de fer mes còmodes i segures, les que lliguen amb les seves preferències cerebrals. Quan viu dificultats, el convida a explorar les excepcions, els moments en els quals les seves realitzacions són satisfactòries. Pretén sobretot modificar les seves creences limitants, posant-lo en conflicte amb els fets de l'experiència. A vegades, caldrà facilitar l'adquisició d'estratègies i procediments nous que l'Educand considera plausibles. Es tracta específicament de fer existir opcions noves d'actuació per tal d'assolir allò que vol i/o necessita. C) Intervenció sobre el sistema de valors de l'Educand. L'Educand viu uns valors, els quals expliquen el seu món intern les conductes que realitza i els resultats que obté. Aquest àmbit és col·locat, en el model, al centre del procés d'aprendre. Hom actua amb propòsits determinats, no necessariament conscients. L'obertura de la persona a l'experiència d'aprendre es dirigeix segons criteris i valors irrenunciables. 10.- L 'Educador procura compartir els objectius de l'Educand i els seus projectes per assolir-los; vol tanmateix que se'n faci coneixedor i director responsable. Per a això li convé preguntar-se per quina mena d'experiència està desenvolupant i quin sentit ecològic te per a ell. L'Educador, el seu model del món, la seva persona, està compromès en el procés d'ajuda. No és només un tècnic que aplica recursos objectius. El seu model de comunicació, el seu pensament, les seves expectatives i anticipacions, tenen un pes considerable en el tipus d'intervenció pedagògica que durà a terme i, d'escreix, en el tipus d' aprenentatge que facilita. En la intervenció, l'Educador parteix d'una avaluació intencionadament positiva, centrada en els recursos i les solucions, en la metacognició i l'autoregulació dels processos, a partir de premisses que pressuposen l'èxit personal.

A hybrid approach of knowledge-based reasoning for structural assessment

La idea básica de detección de defectos basada en vibraciones en Monitorización de la Salud Estructural (SHM), es que el defecto altera las propiedades de rigidez, masa o disipación de energía de un sistema, el cual, altera la respuesta dinámica del mismo. Dentro del contexto de reconocimiento de patrones, esta tesis presenta una metodología híbrida de razonamiento para evaluar los defectos en las estructuras, combinando el uso de un modelo de la estructura y/o experimentos previos con el esquema de razonamiento basado en el conocimiento para evaluar si el defecto está presente, su gravedad y su localización. La metodología involucra algunos elementos relacionados con análisis de vibraciones, matemáticas (wavelets, control de procesos estadístico), análisis y procesamiento de señales y/o patrones (razonamiento basado en casos, redes auto-organizativas), estructuras inteligentes y detección de defectos. Las técnicas son validadas numérica y experimentalmente considerando corrosión, pérdida de masa, acumulación de masa e impactos. Las estructuras usadas durante este trabajo son: una estructura tipo cercha voladiza, una viga de aluminio, dos secciones de tubería y una parte del ala de un avión comercial.

Development of practical methodology and indicators for on-farm animal welfare assessment

163 p.

Population Assessment of an Endangered Shorebird: the Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) in Eastern Canada

Small, at-risk populations are those for which accurate demographic information is most crucial to conservation and recovery, but also where data collection is constrained by logistical challenges and small sample sizes. Migratory animals in particular may experience a wide range of threats to survival and reproduction throughout each annual cycle, and identification of life stages most critical to persistence may be especially difficult for these populations. The endangered eastern Canadian breeding population of Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) was estimated at only 444 adults in 2005, and extensive effort has been invested in conservation activities, reproductive monitoring, and marking of individual birds, providing a comprehensive data set on population dynamics since 1998. We used these data to build a matrix projection model for two Piping Plover population segments that nest in eastern Canada in order to estimate both deterministic and stochastic rates of population growth (λd and λs, respectively). Annual population censuses suggested moderate growth in abundance between 1998–2003, but vital rate estimates indicated that this temporary growth may be replaced by declines in the long term, both in southern Nova Scotia (λd = 1.0043, λs = 0.9263) and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (λd = 0.9651, λs = 0.8214). Nonetheless, confidence intervals on λ estimates were relatively wide, highlighting remaining uncertainty in future population trajectories. Differences in projected growth between regions appear to be driven by low estimated juvenile post-fledging survival in the Gulf, but threats to juveniles of both population segments following departure from nesting beaches remain unidentified. Similarly, λ in both population segments was particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival as expected for most migratory birds, but very little is understood about the threats to Piping Plover survival during migration and overwintering. Consequently, we suggest that future recovery efforts for these and other vulnerable migrants should quantify and manage the largely unknown sources of both adult and juvenile mortality during non-breeding seasons while maintaining current levels of nesting habitat protection.

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change.