Group Forecasting Accuracy in Hotels

Yield management helps hotels more profitably manage the capacity of their rooms. Hotels tend to have two types of business: transient and group. Yield management research and systems have been designed for transient business in which the group forecast is taken as a given. In this research, forecast data from approximately 90 hotels of a large North American hotel chain were used to determine the accuracy of group forecasts and to identify factors associated with accurate forecasts. Forecasts showed a positive bias and had a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 40% at two months before arrival; 30% at one month before arrival; and 10-15% on the day of arrival. Larger hotels, hotels with a higher dependence on group business, and hotels that updated their forecasts frequently during the month before arrival had more accurate forecasts.

Positive Encounters: An Investigative Study on the Effects of Interactions between Cations and Quantum Dots

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Estratégias internacionais da fruticultura do RN: o caso finobrasa processo e evolução

The present inquiry has as main objective to understand the process of formation of the international strategies of the exporting companies of fruits of the RN through the theory of the resource dependence. Aiming at to clarify as the companies they can carry through the process of internationalization through this theory had been study the behavior and economic theories of the process of internationalization of companies. Amongst the economic theories they are distinguished the eclectic paradigm of Dunning (1958), Vernon (1669) through the theory of the cycle of the product and Bucley and Casson (1979) with the theory of the international operations. In the mannering boarding they had been investigated the school of Upsala through Johanson and Valnhe (1977) with the concept of the increasing of the markets and in the distance psychic starts and the interaction of the purchaser-salesman of Hallen and Wiedersheim-Paul (1979). In this perspective it observes main the occured changes in the organization in function of this process, following the rules observed by the gradual ingression in the international market, having as base ways of entrances in the external market used by these companies, in view of the frist phase that the company presents of businesses. Ahead of you analyze of these theories the study searches to analyze the convergence of the concepts proclaimed for the theory of the dependence of resources (PFEFFER; SALANCIK, 1978). and strategies of internationalization of the companies. The research is characterized as qualitative case study which adopts and exploratory and analytical type, retrospective matrix. The adopted strategy is of case study and the unit of analysis consisting of the Finobrasa, pertaining company to the Vicunha Group. The main method of collection of data was halfstructuralized interview allied the documentary research that together had presented an empirical perspective of the internationalization process. The analysis and quarrel of the results understand the description and the interpretation of the one of the information through the technique of analyzes of content. Initially the historical of the exportation of fruits of the Rio Grande do Norte with the focus in the region Açu/Mossoró is presented and after that the information of the Finobrasa are presented as base of the study. The main events are identified that had constituted the phases of the strategical model of the company. It was observed that the dimensions most excellent amongst those proclaimed by the School of Uppsala had been the learning, staffs and the step-starts is sufficiently gifts in the reality of the company, as well as the aspects of strategical alliances since the consolidated relationship of the Vicunha Group create a more solid trajectory in the international market allied the conditions created windows of marked . One understands, therefore, that the investigated process still has base the theoretical theories of the internationalization strategies corroborating for the theoretical convergence of the rules proclaimed for the theory of the dependence of resources.

Advanced occupant behavioural features of the building - Exodus evacuation model

The purpose of this paper is to describe and demonstrate some of the advanced behavioural features currently being developed for the building-EXODUS evacuation model. These advanced features involve the ability to specify roles for particular individuals during the evacuation. With these enhancements to the Behavioural Submodel of building-EXODUS, it is possible to include a number of procedural and behavioural aspects previously ignored in evacuation simulations. These include the behavioural aspect of group bonding, the procedural aspects involved with the role of the fire warden and rescue operations undertaken by the fire services. The importance of these enhancements are discussed and demonstrated through three simple simulations.

Employability, Skills Development and Enterprise Creation (Momentum, University of Worcester)

Background to the Momentum project : PSS1 (Sept 2014 - July 2016): funded by HEFCE to promote Postgraduate Education and Employability. A discussion of group demographics, student experience, employer feedback, and enterprise creation through the establishment of the University of Worcester Business Incubator. The presentation concludes with a number of lessons learned from the project.

Nego veio é um sofrer : uma etnografia da subalternidade e do subalterno numa irmandade do Rosário

The object of this work is a fellowship of São Sebastião e Nossa Senhora do Rosário in the city of Jardim do Seridó (RN), that is, a black catholic fellowship on the sertão potiguar. The devotion to Nossa Senhora do Rosário, in colonial Brazil, organizes itself through black catholic men as fellowships. They blossomed in Brazil until the abolition, getting support from the Catholic church, from owners of slaves and from the population in general − unlike others afro-Brazilian religious expression. Today, these fellowships remain active, against the sentimental pessimism of the folklore studies, and they also have a highlight position in the calendar of many cities in Brazil, and in particular in Seridó. The research s foothold is the apparent valorization of the fellowship by the local elite, attitude that hides asymmetric relationships between the group of negros do Rosário and the local authorities, having as its consequence that the members occupy a subaltern position inside their own fellowship. This subalternity take place, mainly, in the public area, where the negros do Rosário cannot represent themselves neither political nor discursively. To discuss this idea, it s done a brief historical of these catholic institutions as well as a description of the relationship between the negros do Rosário and the elites of the city. Then, the phenomenon is analyzed as folklore and/or religion , under the perspective of many agents that participate in this process. In other moment, it is going to be presented how the group formulates their own representation of the history, of the devotional forms and of their own political-religious experiences. In this sense, an ethnography of the subalternity is understood as an analysis of the process that leads the negros do Rosário to become a subaltern group. It s also outlined the perception that the group has of its own position, through an ethnography essay of the subaltern subject. The research, focused in the group of Rosário, was done between August 2010 and January 2012 and includes other agents (like treasurers, priests and intellectuals). Besides that, as a methodological complement, there are documental research, photography, as well as shoots of the party days and public presentation

Enhancing the numerical performance of fire field models (CMS Paper)

This paper describes two new techniques designed to enhance the performance of fire field modelling software. The two techniques are "group solvers" and automated dynamic control of the solution process, both of which are currently under development within the SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics environment. The "group solver" is a derivation of common solver techniques used to obtain numerical solutions to the algebraic equations associated with fire field modelling. The purpose of "group solvers" is to reduce the computational overheads associated with traditional numerical solvers typically used in fire field modelling applications. In an example, discussed in this paper, the group solver is shown to provide a 37% saving in computational time compared with a traditional solver. The second technique is the automated dynamic control of the solution process, which is achieved through the use of artificial intelligence techniques. This is designed to improve the convergence capabilities of the software while further decreasing the computational overheads. The technique automatically controls solver relaxation using an integrated production rule engine with a blackboard to monitor and implement the required control changes during solution processing. Initial results for a two-dimensional fire simulation are presented that demonstrate the potential for considerable savings in simulation run-times when compared with control sets from various sources. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential for enhanced solution reliability due to obtaining acceptable convergence within each time step, unlike some of the comparison simulations.

Atividades mediadas como colaboração para aprendizagem de conceitos científicos sobre doenças epidêmicas

Acompanha: Sequência didática interativa para o ensino de doenças epidêmicas

The effect of metoclopramide in capsule enteroscopy

Clinical utility of prokinetics in capsule endoscopy (CE) is not clearly established. The objective of this prospective, randomized, single-blind, controlled trial was to determine if metoclopramide is useful in CE by increasing the rate of complete enteroscopy. Ninety-five patients referred for CE were randomized to no metoclopramide (group B, n = 48) or 10 mg metoclopramide (group A, n = 47). Complete enteroscopy was possible in 38 patients of group A (80.9%) and 37 of group B (77.1%) (P = 0.422) with two cases of gastric retention in group B (4.2%; P = 0.253). Median gastric transit time was 26 min (1-211) in group A and 28 min (4-200) in group B (P = 0.511). Mean small bowel transit time, calculated after excluding 20 patients with incomplete enteroscopy, was similar in both groups (221.2 +/- 89 min vs. 256 +/- 82.2 min; P = 0.083). There were also no differences in the total number of findings (group A 4.5 +/- 4.7; group B 4.7 +/- 3.7, P = 0.815). Administration of 10 mg metoclopramide orally 15 min before capsule ingestion did not significantly increase the rate of total enteroscopies and had no effect on transit times. It also did not modify CE diagnostic yield.

Early post-fledgling survival in a fragmented population of a tropical cooperative breeding passerine

During the last years tropical forest has been a target of intense study especially due to its recent big scale destruction. Although a lot still needs to be explored, we start realizing how negative can the impact of our actions be for the ecosystem. Subsequently, the living community have been developing strategies to overcome this problem avoiding bottlenecks or even extinctions. Cooperative breeding (CB) has been recently pointed out as one of those strategies. CB is a breeding system where more than two individuals raise one brood. In most of the cases, extra individuals are offspring that delay their dispersal and independent breeding what allows them to help their parents raising their siblings in the subsequent breeding season. Such behavior is believed to be due, per example, to the lack of mates or breeding territories (ecological constraints hypothesis), a consequence of habitat fragmentation and/or disturbance. From this point, CB is easily promoted by a higher reproductive success of group vs pairs or single individuals. Accordingly, during this thesis I explore the early post-fledging survival of a cooperative breeding passerine, namely the impact of individual/habitat quality in its survival probability during the dependence period of the chicks. Our study species is the Cabanis’s greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a medium-sized, brownish passerine, classified within the Pycnonotidae family. It is found over part of Central Africa in countries such as Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique and Kenya, inhabiting primary and secondary forests, as well as woodland of various types up to 2700m of altitude. Previous studies have concluded that PC is a facultative cooperative breeder. This study was conducted in Taita Hills (TH) at the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM), a chain of mountains running from Southeast Kenya to the South of Tanzania. TH comprises an area of 430 ha and has been suffering intense deforestation reflecting 98% forest reduction over the last 200 years. Nowadays its forest is divided in fragments and our study was based in 5of those fragments. We access the post-fledging survival through radio-telemetry. The juvenile survey was done through the breeding females in which transmitters were placed with a leg-loop technique. Ptilochronology is consider to be the study of feather growth bars and has been used to study the nutritional state of a bird. This technique considers that the feather growth rate is positively proportional to the individual capability of ingesting food and to the food availability. This technique is therefore used to infer for individual/habitat quality. Survival was lowest during the first 5 days post-fledging representing 53.3%. During the next 15 days, risk of predation decreased with only 14.3% more deceased individuals. This represents a total of only 33% survived individuals in the end of the 50 days. Our results showed yet a significant positive relationship between flock size and post-fledging survival as well as between ptilochronology values and post-fledgling survival. In practice, these imply that on this population, as bigger the flock, as greater the post fledging survival and that good habitat quality or good BF quality, will lead to a higher juvenile survival rate. We believe that CB is therefore an adaptive behaviour to the lack of mates/breeding territory originated from the mass forest destruction and disturbance. Such results confirms the critical importance of habitat quality in the post-fledging survival and, for the first time, demonstrates how flock size influences the living probability of the juveniles and therefore how it impacts the (local) population dynamics of this species. In my opinion, future research should be focus in disentangle individual and habitat quality from each other and verify which relationship exist between them. Such study will allow us to understand which factor has a stronger influence in the post-fledging survival and therefore redirect our studies in that direction. In order to confirm the negative impact of human disturbance and forest fragmentation, it would be of major relevance to compare the reproductive strategies and reproductive success of populations living in intact forests and disturbed patches.

THE PHYSICS OF IDEAS: INFERRING THE MECHANICS OF OPINION FORMATION FROM MACROSCOPIC STATISTICAL PATTERNS

In a microscopic setting, humans behave in rich and unexpected ways. In a macroscopic setting, however, distinctive patterns of group behavior emerge, leading statistical physicists to search for an underlying mechanism. The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the macroscopic patterns of competing ideas in order to discern the mechanics of how group opinions form at the microscopic level. First, we explore the competition of answers in online Q&A (question and answer) boards. We find that a simple individual-level model can capture important features of user behavior, especially as the number of answers to a question grows. Our model further suggests that the wisdom of crowds may be constrained by information overload, in which users are unable to thoroughly evaluate each answer and therefore tend to use heuristics to pick what they believe is the best answer. Next, we explore models of opinion spread among voters to explain observed universal statistical patterns such as rescaled vote distributions and logarithmic vote correlations. We introduce a simple model that can explain both properties, as well as why it takes so long for large groups to reach consensus. An important feature of the model that facilitates agreement with data is that individuals become more stubborn (unwilling to change their opinion) over time. Finally, we explore potential underlying mechanisms for opinion formation in juries, by comparing data to various types of models. We find that different null hypotheses in which jurors do not interact when reaching a decision are in strong disagreement with data compared to a simple interaction model. These findings provide conceptual and mechanistic support for previous work that has found mutual influence can play a large role in group decisions. In addition, by matching our models to data, we are able to infer the time scales over which individuals change their opinions for different jury contexts. We find that these values increase as a function of the trial time, suggesting that jurors and judicial panels exhibit a kind of stubbornness similar to what we include in our model of voting behavior.

Entre ecos e narcisos: estudo de caso sobre a prática teatral com adolescentes como atividade extracurricular numa escola de nível médio

This masters thesis discusses the studying and the teaching of drama and its implications among teenagers of the contemporary world. This paper also analyses an extracurricular project entitled Drama in the development of citizenship , which was carried out in the public state school Berilo Wanderley in Natal/RN, between 1999 and 2005 with high school students. It comprises a case study that aimed at understanding how and why they chose to take drama classes outside of the school curriculum and even after they graduated, some of them never left the school project and even started participating in the cultural and artistic context of the city of Natal quite actively, both as part of an audience as well as on artistic, political, social and pedagogical performance. The project was high significant for its participants, for the school and for the community, by creating a sense of recognition of the relevance of the pedagogical and artistic production in the public school, as it managed to yield knowledge that helped students to understand the values of group work, sharing information, collaborative assessment and, most of all, to engender actions of protagonism by the teenagers themselves within their social environments. The empirical process developed is placed in a contemporary historical context where educational paradigms shifts occur, and where categories of youth empowerment and protagonism are fundamental to the educational process in the 21st century. The objective of this study is to reflect upon the pedagogical dimension of drama classes for teenagers, aiming at providing further discussions on the role of acting classes in the construction of the personality among youngsters, thus hoping to contribute to other teaching practices, including drama and other subjects of general education

Simvastatin improves the healing of infected skin wounds of rats

This study explores the potential of the simvastatin to ameliorate inflammation and infection in open infected skin wounds of rats. Methods: Fourteen Wistar rats weighing 285±12g were used. The study was done in a group whose open infected skin wounds were treated with topical application of sinvastatina microemulsion (SIM, n=7) and a second group with wounds treated with saline 0.9 % (SAL, n=7). A bacteriological exam of the wounds fluid for gram positive and gram negative bacteria, the tecidual expression of TNFá and IL-1â by imunohistochemical technique, and histological analysis by HE stain were performed. Results: The expression of TNFa could be clearly demonstrated in lower degree in skin wounds treated with simvastatin (668.6 ± 74.7 ìm2) than in saline (2120.0 ± 327.1 ìm2). In comparison, wound tissue from SIM group displayed leukocyte infiltration significantly lower than that observed in SAL group (p<0.05). Culture results of the samples taken from wound fluid on fourth post treatment day revealed wound infection in only one rat of group simvastatin (SIM), where Proteus mirabilis, Escherchia coli and Enterobacter sp were isolated. In the rats whose wounds were treated with saline (SAL), polymicrobial infection with more than 100,000 CFU/g was detected in all the wounds. Conclusion: In addition to its antiinflammatory properties, the protective effects of simvastatin in infected open skin wounds is able to reduce infection and probably has antibacterial action. The potential to treat these wounds with statins to ameliorate inflammation and infection is promising

Vasculitis, a Rare Presentation of a Post-Streptococcal Syndrome

Post-streptococcal vasculitis is not awell-recognized non-suppurative complication of Group A streptococcal infections. Seventeen-year-old male was admitted with palpable purpura in the limbs, ankle swelling, microscopic hematuria and elevated inflammation markers. After short remission period, an extensive exudative pleural effusion was identified. High anti-streptococcal antibodies titers were found. This report illustrates an atypical and rare presentation of a post-streptococcal syndrome.

Investigation of multisensory processing and structural brain differences in Autism Spectrum Disorder

This thesis is an investigation of structural brain abnormalities, as well as multisensory and unisensory processing deficits in autistic traits and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). To achieve this, structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and psychophysical techniques were employed. ASD is a neurodevelopmental condition which is characterised by the social communication and interaction deficits, as well as repetitive patterns of behaviour, interests and activities. These traits are thought to be present in a typical population. The Autism Spectrum Quotient questionnaire (AQ) was developed to assess the prevalence of autistic traits in the general population. Von dem Hagen et al. (2011) revealed a link between AQ with white matter (WM) and grey matter (GM) volume (using voxel-based-morphometry). However, their findings revealed no difference in GM in areas associated with social cognition. Cortical thickness (CT) measurements are known to be a more direct measure of cortical morphology than GM volume. Therefore, Chapter 2 investigated the relationship between AQ scores and CT in the same sample of participants. This study showed that AQ scores correlated with CT in the left temporo-occipital junction, left posterior cingulate, right precentral gyrus and bilateral precentral sulcus, in a typical population. These areas were previously associated with structural and functional differences in ASD. Thus the findings suggest, to some extent, autistic traits are reflected in brain structure - in the general population. The ability to integrate auditory and visual information is crucial to everyday life, and results are mixed regarding how ASD influences audiovisual integration. To investigate this question, Chapter 3 examined the Temporal Integration Window (TIW), which indicates how precisely sight and sound need to be temporally aligned so that a unitary audiovisual event can be perceived. 26 adult males with ASD and 26 age and IQ-matched typically developed males were presented with flash-beep (BF), point-light drummer, and face-voice (FV) displays with varying degrees of asynchrony and asked to make Synchrony Judgements (SJ) and Temporal Order Judgements (TOJ). Analysis of the data included fitting Gaussian functions as well as using an Independent Channels Model (ICM) to fit the data (Garcia-Perez & Alcala-Quintana, 2012). Gaussian curve fitting for SJs showed that the ASD group had a wider TIW, but for TOJ no group effect was found. The ICM supported these results and model parameters indicated that the wider TIW for SJs in the ASD group was not due to sensory processing at the unisensory level, but rather due to decreased temporal resolution at a decisional level of combining sensory information. Furthermore, when performing TOJ, the ICM revealed a smaller Point of Subjective Simultaneity (PSS; closer to physical synchrony) in the ASD group than in the TD group. Finding that audiovisual temporal processing is different in ASD encouraged us to investigate the neural correlates of multisensory as well as unisensory processing using functional magnetic resonance imaging fMRI. Therefore, Chapter 4 investigated audiovisual, auditory and visual processing in ASD of simple BF displays and complex, social FV displays. During a block design experiment, we measured the BOLD signal when 13 adults with ASD and 13 typically developed (TD) age-sex- and IQ- matched adults were presented with audiovisual, audio and visual information of BF and FV displays. Our analyses revealed that processing of audiovisual as well as unisensory auditory and visual stimulus conditions in both the BF and FV displays was associated with reduced activation in ASD. Audiovisual, auditory and visual conditions of FV stimuli revealed reduced activation in ASD in regions of the frontal cortex, while BF stimuli revealed reduced activation the lingual gyri. The inferior parietal gyrus revealed an interaction between stimulus sensory condition of BF stimuli and group. Conjunction analyses revealed smaller regions of the superior temporal cortex (STC) in ASD to be audiovisual sensitive. Against our predictions, the STC did not reveal any activation differences, per se, between the two groups. However, a superior frontal area was shown to be sensitive to audiovisual face-voice stimuli in the TD group, but not in the ASD group. Overall this study indicated differences in brain activity for audiovisual, auditory and visual processing of social and non-social stimuli in individuals with ASD compared to TD individuals. These results contrast previous behavioural findings, suggesting different audiovisual integration, yet intact auditory and visual processing in ASD. Our behavioural findings revealed audiovisual temporal processing deficits in ASD during SJ tasks, therefore we investigated the neural correlates of SJ in ASD and TD controls. Similar to Chapter 4, we used fMRI in Chapter 5 to investigate audiovisual temporal processing in ASD in the same participants as recruited in Chapter 4. BOLD signals were measured while the ASD and TD participants were asked to make SJ on audiovisual displays of different levels of asynchrony: the participants’ PSS, audio leading visual information (audio first), visual leading audio information (visual first). Whereas no effect of group was found with BF displays, increased putamen activation was observed in ASD participants compared to TD participants when making SJs on FV displays. Investigating SJ on audiovisual displays in the bilateral superior temporal gyrus (STG), an area involved in audiovisual integration (see Chapter 4), we found no group differences or interaction between group and levels of audiovisual asynchrony. The investigation of different levels of asynchrony revealed a complex pattern of results indicating a network of areas more involved in processing PSS than audio first and visual first, as well as areas responding differently to audio first compared to video first. These activation differences between audio first and video first in different brain areas are constant with the view that audio leading and visual leading stimuli are processed differently.