Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

Three-level main-effects designs exploiting prior information about model uncertainty

To explore the projection efficiency of a design, Tsai, et al [2000. Projective three-level main effects designs robust to model uncertainty. Biometrika 87, 467-475] introduced the Q criterion to compare three-level main-effects designs for quantitative factors that allow the consideration of interactions in addition to main effects. In this paper, we extend their method and focus on the case in which experimenters have some prior knowledge, in advance of running the experiment, about the probabilities of effects being non-negligible. A criterion which incorporates experimenters' prior beliefs about the importance of each effect is introduced to compare orthogonal, or nearly orthogonal, main effects designs with robustness to interactions as a secondary consideration. We show that this criterion, exploiting prior information about model uncertainty, can lead to more appropriate designs reflecting experimenters' prior beliefs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved arthritic knee health in a pilot RCT of phytotherapy

Although practitioner-prescribed 'western' herbal medicine (phytotherapy) is a popular complementary therapy in the UK, no clinical studies have been reported on patient-orientated outcomes. The objective of this pilot study was to investigate the effects of phytotherapy on symptoms of osteoarthritis of the knee. A previous study of Chinese herbal medicine for the treatment of irritable bowel syndrome, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association,(1) acted as a model in the development of the protocol of this investigation. Twenty adults, previously diagnosed with osteoarthritis of the knee, were recruited from two Inner London GP practices into this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, pilot study carried out in a primary-care setting. All subjects were seen in consultation three times by a herbal practitioner who was blinded to the randomization coding. Each subject was prescribed treatment and given lifestyle advice according to usual practice: continuation of conventional medication where applicable, healthy-eating advice and nutrient supplementation, Individualized herbal medicine was prescribed for each patient, but only dispensed for those randomized to active treatment - the remainder were supplied with a placebo. At baseline and outcome (after ten weeks of treatment), subjects completed a food frequency questionnaire and the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) knee health and Measure Yourself Outcome Profile (MYMOP) wellbeing questionnaires. Subjects completing the study per protocol (n = 14) reported an increased intake of wholegrain foods (p = 0.045) and oily fish (p = 0.039) compared to baseline, but no increase in fruit and vegetables and dairy products intakes. There was no difference in the primary outcome measure of knee health assessed as the difference in the mean response (baseline-week 10) in WOMAC score between the two treatment groups. However, there was, compared with baseline, improvement in the active group (n = 9) for the mean WOMAC stiffness sub-score at week 5 (p = 0.035) and week 10 (p = 0.060) but not in the placebo group (n = 5). Furthermore, for the active, but not the placebo group, the mean WOMAC total and sub-scores all showed clinically significant improvement (>= 20%) in knee symptoms at weeks 5 and 10 compared with baseline. Moreover, the mean MYMOP symptom 2 sub-score, mostly relating to osteoarthritis (OA), showed significant improvement at week 5 (p = 0.02) and week 10 (p = 0.008) compared with baseline for the active, but not for the placebo group. This pilot study showed that herbal medicine prescribed for the individual by a herbal practitioner resulted in improvement of symptoms of OA of the knee.

Liposomes and skin: From drug delivery to model membranes

The early eighties saw the introduction of liposomes as skin drug delivery systems, initially promoted primarily for localised effects with minimal systemic delivery. Subsequently, a novel ultradeformable vesicular system (termed "Transfersomes" by the inventors) was reported for transdermal delivery with an efficiency similar to subcutaneous injection. Further research illustrated that the mechanisms of liposome action depended on the application regime and the vesicle composition and morphology. Ethical, health and supply problems with human skin have encouraged researchers to use skin models. 'IYaditional models involved polymer membranes and animal tissue, but whilst of value for release studies, such models are not always good mimics for the complex human skin barrier, particularly with respect to the stratum corneal intercellular lipid domains. These lipids have a multiply bilayered organization, a composition and organization somewhat similar to liposomes, Consequently researchers have used vesicles as skin model membranes. Early work first employed phospholipid liposomes and tested their interactions with skin penetration enhancers, typically using thermal analysis and spectroscopic analyses. Another approach probed how incorporation of compounds into liposomes led to the loss of entrapped markers, analogous to "fluidization" of stratum corneum lipids on treatment with a penetration enhancer. Subsequently scientists employed liposomes formulated with skin lipids in these types of studies. Following a brief description of the nature of the skin barrier to transdermal drug delivery and the use of liposomes in drug delivery through skin, this article critically reviews the relevance of using different types of vesicles as a model for human skin in permeation enhancement studies, concentrating primarily on liposomes after briefly surveying older models. The validity of different types of liposome is considered and traditional skin models are compared to vesicular model membranes for their precision and accuracy as skin membrane mimics. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model for self-directed problem-based learning for renal therapeutics

Objective To introduce a new approach to problem-based learning (PBL) for self-directed learning in renal therapeutics. Design This 5-week course, designed for large student cohorts using minimal teaching resources, was based on a series of case studies and subsequent pharmaceutical care plans, followed by intensive and regular feedback from the instructor. Assessment Assessment of achievement of the learning outcomes was based on weekly-graded care plans and peer review assessment, allowing each student to judge the contributions of each group member and their own, along with a written case-study based examination. The pharmaceutical care plan template, designed using a “tick-box” system, significantly reduced staff time for feedback and scoring. Conclusion The proposed instructional model achieved the desired learning outcomes with appropriate student feedback, while promoting skills that are essential for the students' future careers as health care professionals.

Calories, obesity and health in OECD countries

Theoretical models suggest that decisions about diet, weight and health status are endogenous within a utility maximization framework. In this article, we model these behavioural relationships in a fixed-effect panel setting using a simultaneous equation system, with a view to determining whether economic variables can explain the trends in calorie consumption, obesity and health in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and the large differences among the countries. The empirical model shows that progress in medical treatment and health expenditure mitigates mortality from diet-related diseases, despite rising obesity rates. While the model accounts for endogeneity and serial correlation, results are affected by data limitations.

The comfort, energy and health implications of London’s urban heat island

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-known effect of urbanisation and is particularly important in world megacities. Overheating in such cities is expected to be exacerbated in the future as a result of further urban growth and climate change. Demonstrating and quantifying the impact of individual design interventions on the UHI is currently difficult using available software tools. The tools developed in the LUCID (‘The Development of a Local Urban Climate Model and its Application to the Intelligent Design of Cities’) research project will enable the related impacts to be better understood, quantified and addressed. This article summarises the relevant literature and reports on the ongoing work of the project.

Exploring behavioural change through an agent-oriented system dynamics model: the use of personal protective equipment among pesticide applicators in Colombia

The misuse of Personal Protective Equipment results in health risk among smallholders in developing countries, and education is often proposed to promote safer practices. However, evidence point to limited effects of education. This paper presents a System Dynamics model which allows the identification of risk-minimizing policies for behavioural change. The model is based on the IAC framework and survey data. It represents farmers' decision-making from an agent-oriented standpoint. The most successful intervention strategy was the one which intervened in the long term, targeted key stocks in the systems and was diversified. However, the results suggest that, under these conditions, no policy is able to trigger a self sustaining behavioural change. Two implementation approaches were suggested by experts. One, based on constant social control, corresponds to a change of the current model's parameters. The other, based on participation, would lead farmers to new thinking, i.e. changes in their decision-making structure.

Race-to-the-bottom or -top at home or abroad: Health and safety standards and the multinational firm

We develop a model to illustrate potential complexities in the relationship between corporate geographical diversification and the health and safety (H&S) standards set in national jurisdictions. A firm, that initially has a plant in its home country, may choose to also have one or two foreign plants in order to improve its bargaining position versus local governments, and so ensure reduced H&S standards, i.e. a race-to-the-bottom. However, contrary to the main focus of the popular debate on this topic, we note the potential for the race-to-the-bottom tendency to be exerted on H&S standards in the multinational company’s home rather than host country, and also for an upward push on H&S to instead result.

An experimental manipulation of responsibility in children: a test of the inflated responsibility model of obsessive-compulsive disorder

The objective of this study was to investigate whether Salkovskis (1985) inflated responsibility model of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) applied to children. In an experimental design, 81 children aged 9– 12 years were randomly allocated to three conditions: an inflated responsibility group, a moderate responsibility group, and a reduced responsibility group. In all groups children were asked to sort sweets according to whether or not they contained nuts. At baseline the groups did not differ on children’s self reported anxiety, depression, obsessive-compulsive symptoms or on inflated responsibility beliefs. The experimental manipulation successfully changed children’s perceptions of responsibility. During the sorting task time taken to complete the task, checking behaviours, hesitations, and anxiety were recorded. There was a significant effect of responsibility level on the behavioural variables of time taken, hesitations and check; as perceived responsibility increased children took longer to complete the task and checked and hesitated more often. There was no between-group difference in children’s self reported state anxiety. The results offer preliminary support for the link between inflated responsibility and increased checking behaviours in children and add to the small but growing literature suggesting that cognitive models of OCD may apply to children.

Analyzing the persuasion context of the persuasive systems design model with the 3D-RAB model

Research into design methodology is one of the most challenging issues in the field of persuasive technology. However, the introduction of the Persuasive Systems Design model, and the consideration of the 3-Dimensional Re-lationship between Attitude and Behavior, offer to make persuasive technolo-gies more practically viable. In this paper we demonstrate how the 3-Dimensional Relationship between Attitude and Behavior guides the analysis of the persuasion context in the Persuasive System Design model. As a result, we propose a modification of the persuasion context and assert that the technology should be analyzed as part of strategy instead of event.

Social networks and occupational choice: the endogenous formation of attitudes and beliefs about tax compliance

The paper analyses the emergence of group-specific attitudes and beliefs about tax compliance when individuals interact in a social network. It develops a model in which taxpayers possess a range of individual characteristics – including attitude to risk, potential for success in self-employment, and the weight attached to the social custom for honesty – and make an occupational choice based on these characteristics. Occupations differ in the possibility for evading tax. The social network determines which taxpayers are linked, and information about auditing and compliance is transmitted at meetings between linked taxpayers. Using agent-based simulations, the analysis demonstrates how attitudes and beliefs endogenously emerge that differ across sub-groups of the population. Compliance behaviour is different across occupational groups, and this is reinforced by the development of group-specific attitudes and beliefs. Taxpayers self-select into occupations according to the degree of risk aversion, the subjective probability of audit is sustained above the objective probability, and the weight attached to the social custom differs across occupations. These factors combine to lead to compliance levels that differ across occupations.

Are clinical documents optimised for patient safety? A critical analysis of patient safety outcomes using the EDA error model

Iatrogenic errors and patient safety in clinical processes are an increasing concern. The quality of process information in hardcopy or electronic form can heavily influence clinical behaviour and decision making errors. Little work has been undertaken to assess the safety impact of clinical process planning documents guiding the clinical actions and decisions. This paper investigates the clinical process documents used in elective surgery and their impact on latent and active clinical errors. Eight clinicians from a large health trust underwent extensive semi- structured interviews to understand their use of clinical documents, and their perceived impact on errors and patient safety. Samples of the key types of document used were analysed. Theories of latent organisational and active errors from the literature were combined with the EDA semiotics model of behaviour and decision making to propose the EDA Error Model. This model enabled us to identify perceptual, evaluation, knowledge and action error types and approaches to reducing their causes. The EDA error model was then used to analyse sample documents and identify error sources and controls. Types of knowledge artefact structures used in the documents were identified and assessed in terms of safety impact. This approach was combined with analysis of the questionnaire findings using existing error knowledge from the literature. The results identified a number of document and knowledge artefact issues that give rise to latent and active errors and also issues concerning medical culture and teamwork together with recommendations for further work.