The great diversification and its undoing

We investigate the hypothesis that macroeconomic fluctuations are primitively theresults of many microeconomic shocks, and show that it has significant explanatorypower for the evolution of macroeconomic volatility. We define ?fundamental? volatilityas the volatility that would arise from an economy made entirely of idiosyncratic microeconomicshocks, occurring primitively at the level of sectors or firms. In its empiricalconstruction, motivated by a simple model, the sales share of different sectors vary overtime (in a way we directly measure), while the volatility of those sectors remains constant.We find that fundamental volatility accounts for the swings in macroeconomicvolatility in the US and the other major world economies in the past half century. Itaccounts for the ?great moderation? and its undoing. Controlling for our measure offundamental volatility, there is no break in output volatility. The initial great moderationis due to a decreasing share of manufacturing between 1975 and 1985. The recentrise of macroeconomic volatility is due to the increase of the size of the financial sector.We provide a model to think quantitatively about the large comovement generated byidiosyncratic shocks. As the origin of aggregate shocks can be traced to identifiablemicroeconomic shocks, we may better understand the origins of aggregate fluctuations.

SOST expression is restricted to the great arteries during embryonic and neonatal cardiovascular development.

Spatial-temporal regulation of bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) and Wnt activity is essential for normal cardiovascular development, and altered activity of these growth factors causes maldevelopment of the cardiac outflow tract and great arteries. In the present study, we show that SOST, a Dan family member reported to antagonize BMP and Wnt activity, is expressed within the medial vessel wall of the great arteries containing smooth muscle cells. The ascending aorta, aortic arch, brachiocephalic artery, common carotids, and pulmonary trunk were all associated with SOST expressing smooth muscle cells, while the heart itself, including the valves, and more distal arteries, that is, pulmonary arteries, subclavian arteries, and descending aorta, were negative. SOST was expressed from embryonic day 15.5 up to the neonatal period. SOST expression, however, did not correspond with inhibition of Smad-dependent BMP activity or beta-catenin-dependent Wnt activity in the great arteries. Activity of both signaling pathways was already down-regulated before induction of SOST expression.

Reprisals remembered: German-Greek conflict and car sales during the Euro crisis

During the Greek debt crisis after 2010, the German government insisted on harshausterity measures. This led to a rapid cooling of relations between the Greekand German governments. We compile a new index of public acrimony betweenGermany and Greece based on newspaper reports and internet search terms. Thisinformation is combined with historical maps on German war crimes during theoccupation between 1941 and 1944. During months of open conflict between Germanand Greek politicians, German car sales fell markedly more than those of cars fromother countries. This was especially true in areas affected by German reprisals duringWorldWar II: areas where German troops committed massacres and destroyed entirevillages curtailed their purchases of German cars to a greater extent during conflictmonths than other parts of Greece. We conclude that cultural aversion was a keydeterminant of purchasing behavior, and that memories of past conflict can affecteconomic choices in a time-varying fashion. These findings are compatible withbehavioral models emphasizing the importance of salience for individual decision-making.

Whose Interest Is Being Served? An Investigation of a Walker City Council Member’s Conflict of Interest, April 15, 2010

The Ombudsman received a complaint concerning Bill Smith, a city council member who is also the Walker Fire Department Chief. The complainant stated that Mr. Smith votes regularly as a city council member on matters before the Walker City Council (Council) pertaining to the Walker Fire Department. These actions were alleged to be conflicts of interest in violation of Iowa law.

Audit report on the Great River Regional Waste Authority for the year ended June 30, 2009

Audit report on the Great River Regional Waste Authority for the year ended June 30, 2009

Editorial research and the publication process in biomedicine and health: Report from the Esteve Foundation Discussion Group, December 2012.

Despite the fact that there are more than twenty thousand biomedical journals in the world, research into the work of editors and publication process in biomedical and health care journals is rare. In December 2012, the Esteve Foundation, a non-profit scientific institution that fosters progress in pharmacotherapy by means of scientific communication and discussion organized a discussion group of 7 editors and/or experts in peer review biomedical publishing. They presented findings of past editorial research, discussed the lack of competitive funding schemes and specialized journals for dissemination of editorial research, and reported on the great diversity of misconduct and conflict of interest policies, as well as adherence to reporting guidelines. Furthermore, they reported on the reluctance of editors to investigate allegations of misconduct or increase the level of data sharing in health research. In the end, they concluded that if editors are to remain gatekeepers of scientific knowledge they should reaffirm their focus on the integrity of the scientific record and completeness of the data they publish. Additionally, more research should be undertaken to understand why many journals are not adhering to editorial standards, and what obstacles editors face when engaging in editorial research.

Audit report on the Great River Regional Waste Authority for the year ended June 30, 2010

Audit report on the Great River Regional Waste Authority for the year ended June 30, 2010

Clutch size and malarial parasites in female great tits.

Life-history models predict an evolutionary trade-off in the allocation of resources to current versus future reproduction. This corresponds, at the physiological level, to a trade-off in the allocation of resources to current reproduction or to the immune system, which will enhance survival and therefore future reproduction. For clutch size, life-history models predict a positive correlation between current measurement in eggs and the subsequent parasite load. Tn a population of great tits, we analyzed the correlation between natural clutch size of females and the subsequent prevalence of Plasmodium spp., a potentially harmful blood parasite. Females that showed, 14 days after hatching of the nestlings, an infection with Plasmodium had a significantly larger clutch (9.3 eggs +/- 0.5 SE, n = 18) than uninfected females (8.0 eggs +/- 0.2 SE, n = 80), as predicted by the allocation trade-off. Clutch size was positively correlated with tile prevalence of Plasmodium, but brood size 14 days after hatching was not. This suggests that females incur higher costs during laying the clutch than during rearing nestlings. Infection status of some females changed between years, and these changes were significantly correlated with a change in clutch size as predicted by die trade-off. The link between reproductive effort and parasitism may represent a possible mechanism by which the cost of egg production is mediated into future survival and may thereby be an important selective force in the shaping of clutch size.

Survival and health in liveborn infants with transposition of great arteries--a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe treatment, survival, and morbidity for liveborn infants with isolated transposition of great arteries (TGA). DESIGN: Population-based data from 7 European registries of congenital malformations (EUROCAT). RESULTS: Ninety-seven infants were diagnosed with isolated TGA and livebirth prevalence was 2.0 per 10,000 livebirths. The majority of infants were treated with prostaglandins (83%) and 57% had a catheter atrial septostomia performed. Arterial switch surgery was performed in 78 infants, other or unknown type of surgery was performed in 3 cases, and for 6 infants there was no information on surgery. At 1 year of age 69 infants were alive (71%) and 24 (25%) were dead (4 unknown). There were 10 deaths before surgery and 58% of all deaths took place during the first week. There was no statistically significant regional difference in mortality. Eight infants diagnosed prenatally all survived to 1 year and only 71% of infants diagnosed after birth survived (P = 0.08). Data on morbidity at 1 year of age was available for 57 infants. Fifty-one infants were reported with normal health and development. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based study survival for liveborn infants with TGA is lower than in studies published from tertiary centers. Outcome for survivors at 1 year of age seems favorable.

Altitudinal variation in haemosporidian parasite distribution in great tit populations.

BACKGROUND: One of the major issues concerning disease ecology and conservation is knowledge of the factors that influence the distribution of parasites and consequently disease outbreaks. This study aimed to investigate avian haemosporidian composition and the distribution of these parasites in three altitudinally separated great tit (Parus major) populations in western Switzerland over a three-year period. The objectives were to determine the lineage diversity of parasites occuring across the study populations and to investigate whether altitudinal gradients govern the distribution of haemosporidian parasites by lineage. METHODS: In this study molecular approaches (PCR and sequencing) were used to detect avian blood parasites (Plasmodium sp., Haemoproteus sp. and Leucocytozoon sp.) in populations of adult great tits caught on their nests during three consecutive breeding seasons. RESULTS: High levels of parasite prevalence (88-96%) were found across all of the study populations with no significant altitude effect. Altitude did, however, govern the distribution of parasites belonging to different genera, with Plasmodium parasites being more prevalent at lower altitudes, Leucocytozoon parasites more at high altitude and Haemoproteus parasite prevalence increasing with altitude. A total of 27 haemosporidian parasite lineages were recorded across all study sites, with diversity showing a positive correlation to altitude. Parasites belonging to lineage SGS1 (P. relictum) and PARUS4 and PARUS19 (Leucocytozoon sp.) dominated lower altitudes. SW2 (P. polare) was the second most prevalent lineage of parasite detected overall and these parasites were responsible for 68% of infections at intermediate altitude, but were only documented at this one study site. CONCLUSIONS: Avian haemosporidian parasites are not homogeneously distributed across host populations, but differ by altitude. This difference is most probably brought about by environmental factors influencing vector prevalence and distribution. The high occurrence of co-infection by different genera of parasites might have pronounced effects on host fitness and should consequently be investigated more rigorously.

Rivers and Lakes of Iowa,2001.

A one page colored map of rivers and lakes in Iowa.