ロウハーニー大統領の登場から核協議の進展へ -- 米国オバマ政権の対イラン外交の転換と日本

The recent rapprochement between Iran and the United States after Hassan Rouhani was elected president in June 2013 may represent an important geopolitical shift that would alter the politics of the Middle East. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate this political shift, examine whether the interim nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States would lead to some structural shifts in the Middle East, and analyze to what extent this change can be sustainable for both sides. The main Part of this paper is divided into three sections. The first section examines in detail the process of Iran's Presidential election in June 2013, especially the sudden change of atmosphere which took place just three days before election day. The second section is devoted to analyzing the Obama administration’s shift to diplomacy with Iran. And the third section treats the on-going nuclear negotiations between Iran and P5+1, which is expected to reach a comprehensive solution. The paper argues that the dramatic shift in the US policy toward Iran is not limited to the bilateral relationships between the US and Iran, but it is related to several key issues in the Middle East, in particular to those in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. This changing process in Iranian politics and the path to diplomacy is profitable for Japanese national interest, and that Japan should also contribute to Iran's return to the international community.

Lebanon and the Syrian conflict 2011-2013

2011年に発生したアラブ世界での民衆蜂起は、市民としてのアラブ人が近代的で民主的な国家を建設しようとする努力であった。その意味でアラブ民衆蜂起が発生した主な原因はもっぱら国内要因であり、そこに地域的、国際的な介入が加わったのである。アラブ民衆蜂起はシリアでは内戦に発展し、その影響は現在周辺国にも及んでいる。シリアが内戦に至った要因を理解するためには、シリアとそれを取り巻く現状を理解するだけでなく，シリアという国家が持つ歴史、なかでもフランス委任統治期の分断統治政策の失敗、ハーフィズ・アサドによる独裁体制の構築と継続、イスラエルによる干渉といったシリア現代史の影響を検討することが重要である。シリア内戦はレバノン、ヨルダン、トルコなどの周辺国にも少なからぬ影響を与えている。シリア難民の流出は、レバノンとヨルダンにとって社会と経済の負荷となっている。またシリア国内の分断と混乱は、レバノンの国内宗派対立をも先鋭化させた。他方でシリア内戦が長期化するにともない、イスラエルによるシリアとレバノンへの干渉が懸念されるようになっている。シリア内戦およびそれに対するイスラエルの対応は、結果的にレバノンへの大きな圧力となった。今後レバノンが主権国家としての安定的な地位を維持するためには、シリア内戦への政治的な関与を避け，国内各勢力の融和および各勢力の協調による国家運営を進めることがこれまで以上に必要である。

「アラブの春」後の移行期過程 -- 帰結を分ける諸要因

Diverging outcomes are unfolding in the post-Arab Uprising countries' transitional processes. In January 2014, Tunisia successfully adopted a new constitution based on a consensus of the opposing political parties and factions. In contrast, Egypt abolished one constitution and hastily instituted another in a time span of slightly more than a year. Yemen has announced the final document of the National Dialogue Conference in the same month. Libyans finally voted for the long awaited and disputed elections of the Constitutional Drafting Committee in February 2014. The paper picks up three factors which seem to be influential in determining the modality of transitional political process in the four Post-Arab spring countries. The first is the initial conditions of the transitional politics.. Differences in the way the previous regimes collapsed are analyzed to illuminate the continuity and break of the ruling institutions and state apparatus. The second factor is the type of the interim government. In line with Shain and Linz typology, provisional, power-sharing, caretaker, and international interim government models are applied to clarify the types of interim governments in each four countries' different phases in transitional politics. The third is the "rules of the game," particularly those pertaining to the constitutional process. Who set what kind of rules and how are to be considered in each of four countries and possible influences of each set of the rules of the game to the diverging results of the transitional politics are considered.

Deposit dollarization in Myanmar

Myanmar has peculiar conditions of deposit dollarization that were shaped by administrative controls. On the one hand, restrictive controls encouraged the accumulation of foreign currency deposits (FCD). On the other hand, foreign currency loans (FCL) were not practiced officially; therefore, FCD was not utilized for credit. Given the adverse effects and persistence of dollarization in other dollarized economies and the recent recovery of local currency deposits in Myanmar, this paper opts for the prohibition of FCL and offers policy measures for de-dollarization.

Taiwan strait crises and Chiang Kai-shek's strategic thinking : a perspective from the Taiwan's archive

This paper uses Taiwan's archival documents to reexamine the two Taiwan Strait crises and the characteristics of Chiang Kai-shek's strategic thinking. Section 2 examines the oscillation of U.S. policy concerning the ROC's offensive toward mainland China and the defense of the Da-chen islands before and after the initiation of the First Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1954-1955. Doing so will highlight the contradictory U.S. attitude that contributed to the crisis and weakened its ability to control Chiang. Section 3 focuses on Chiang Kai-shek's strategic vision toward East Asia. In particular, this section focuses on his strategic thinking and tries to assess whether or not he was a "reckless" or "irrational" leader as often described in the previous research on his personality.

Gender-preferential intergenerational patterns in primary education attainment : a quantitative analysis of a case of rural Mindanao, the Philippines

The Philippines has achieved a relatively high standard of education. Previous researches, most of which deal with Luzon Island, have indicated that rural poverty alleviation began partly due to the increased investment in education. However, the suburban areas beyond Luzon Island have rarely been studied. This study examines a case from rural Mindanao, and investigates the determinants and factors associated with children's education, with a special focus on delays in schooling, which may be a cause of dropout and holdover incidences, as well as exploring gender-specific differential patterns. The result shows that after controlling other socioeconomic attributes, (1) delays in schooling, as well as years completed, are more favorable for girls than boys; (2) the level of maternal education is equally associated with the child(ren)’s education level regardless of their gender; and (3) paternal education is preferentially and favorably influential to the same-gender child(ren), i.e., son(s). To reduce the boy-unfriendly gender bias in primary education, this study suggests two future tasks, i.e., providing boy-specific interventions to enhance the magnitude of the father-son educational virtuous circle, and comparing the magnitude of gender-equal maternal education influence and boy-preferential paternal education influence to specify which effect is larger.

Transition from black to official markets for foreign exchange in Myanmar

We address the puzzle why the black market for foreign exchange thrives in Myanmar despite the successful unification of multiple exchange rates. A closer look at the black market reveals that its enduring competitiveness stems from its lower transaction costs. A question arising from this observation is how the official market, namely banks, can compete with and replace the black market. Our empirical analysis based on an original questionnaire survey of private export firms regarding their choices of currency trading modes suggests that banks can attract exporters by exploiting the economies of scope between currency trading and lending.

Migration, labor and business in the worlding cities of the Arabian Peninsula

This short essay, built on a foundation of more than a decade of fieldwork in the hydrocarbon-rich societies of the Arabian peninsula, distills a set of overarching threads woven through much of that time and work. Those threads include a discussion of the social heterogeneity of the Gulf State citizenries, the central role of development and urban development in these emergent economies, the multifaceted impact of migrants and migration upon these host societies, and the role of foreign 'imagineers' in the portrayal of Gulf societies, Gulf values, and Gulf social norms.

Authoritarianism and labor market : preference of labor policies in the Arab Gulf countries

Migrant and labor issues are a primary concern in the Arab Gulf countries. With focus on the economic and political conditions that influence actors' decisions when framing labor policies, this study analyzes how preferences of such policies are formed and explains why the governments of the Arab Gulf countries attempt to implement less economical policies. The findings suggest that governments avoid concessions for enterprises required to implement more economical policies and chose uneconomical ones to maintain authoritarian regimes.

Land and labor reallocation in pre-modern Japan : a case of a northeastern village in 1720-1870

In agricultural societies, adjusting land and labor according to changes of labor endowment that result from family life cycle events is premised on making full use of resources for each farming household and for the economy as a whole. This paper examines how and how well households in pre-modern Japan reallocated land and labor, using a population register covering 150 years from 1720–1870 for a village in the Tohoku region. We find that households reacted to equalize their production factors; land-scarce households tended to acquire or rent-in land and out-migrate their kin members, while land-abundant households tended to release or rent-out land, in-migrate kin members, or employ non-kin members. Estimates suggest that more than 80% of the surplus or deficit area of land was resolved if the household rented or "sold" land. We discuss a potential underlying mechanism; namely, that the village's collective responsibility for tax payment (murauke) motivated both individual households and the village as a whole to reallocate land and labor for the efficient use of resources.

State-business relations in the smaller gulf monarchies -- the role of business actors in the decision-making process

The Arab monarchies of the Gulf have been undergoing striking socio-economic changes caused by the ending of the rent-based welfare state model on which they had largely relied since the 1950s. In this perspective, this paper aims at examining the comparative role of local business communities in affecting the orientations and the outcomes of the policies implemented during the period of high oil prices in the 2000s. This paper pays a special attention to the impact of the Arab Spring on the state-business relations in two of the smaller Gulf monarchies (Bahrain and Oman).