Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Long term global evaluation of a national AIDS prevention strategy: the case of Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: The Swiss Aids prevention strategy has been subject to a continuous process of evaluation for the past 12 years. This paper describes the conceptual approach, methodology, results obtained and contribution to policy-making of that evaluation.¦DESIGN: The evaluation is on-going, global with respect to all components of the strategy, and utilization-focused. Each successive phase of the evaluation has included 10-20 studies centred either on aspects of process, of outcome or of environmental context. Findings are synthesized at the end of each phase. METHODS: Both quantitative and qualitative methods are used. Studies generally have one of three functions within the overall evaluation: assessment of trends through surveys or other types of repeated studies; evaluation of specific areas through a series of studies from different viewpoints; in-depth investigation or rapid assessment through one-off studies. Various methods of triangulation are used to validate findings. RESULTS: The evaluation has allowed for: the observation of behavioural change in different populations; the availability of scientific data in controversial fields such as drug-use policy; an understanding of the diversity of public appropriation of prevention messages. Recommendations are regularly formulated and have been used by policy-makers and field workers for strategy development. CONCLUSIONS: The global approach adopted corresponds well to the evaluation requirements of an integrated long-term prevention strategy. Cost is low relative to the extent of information provided. Such an evaluation cannot however address the question of causal relationship between the strategy and observed changes. The evaluation has contributed to the development of a culture of evaluation in Swiss AIDS prevention more generally.

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes. The shrub Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) is reported for the first time as a host plant for three Neotropical Polyommatini (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae, Polyommatinae): Hemiargus ramon (Dognin, 1887), Leptotes trigemmatus (Butler, 1881) and Nabokovia faga (Dognin, 1895), based on two collections performed in the western slopes of the northern Chilean Andes in two consecutive summers. The relative abundance was always above 90% for N. faga while it was always less than 5% for H. ramon and L. trigemmatus. Furthermore, N. faga was not found on inflorescences of other native Fabaceae examined in the study site. This pattern suggests a close relationship between N. faga and D. pennellii var. chilensis, at least at a local scale.

The taxonomic identity of Heliconius melpomene f. pyritosa var. fumigata Zikán (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

The taxonomic identity of the butterfly Heliconius melpomene f. pyritosa var. fumigata Zikán, 1937 (Nymphalidae: Heliconiinae) is discussed based on the discovery of the specimen based on which this name was assigned. The specimen is not a variation of Eueides tales surdus Stichel, 1903, as previously stated, but is in fact a variation of H. melpomene f. pyritosa, which is a synonym of Heliconius erato amalfreda Riffarth, 1901.

DIVERSIDADE, CIDADANIA E INCLUSÃO NAS POLÍTICAS E PRÁXIS EDUCACIONAIS: A RELEVÂNCIA DAS AÇÕES AFIRMATIVAS NOS CONTEXTOS GLOBAL, NACIONAL E LOCAL

As desigualdades socioeconómicas, a heterogeneidade cultural e a diversidade de necessidades educativas dos alunos, no contexto do ensino superior, justificam que, ao arrepio das tendências de uniformização das políticas educacionais, sob a égide da globalização hegemónica, sejam adotadas ações afirmativas que promovam a equidade no acesso, a inclusão e o sucesso dos sujeitos aprendentes, bem como a sua inserção na vida ativa, rompendo com lógicas de discriminação e reprodução das desigualdades. Todavia, sob pena de fracassarem, as ações afirmativas não devem limitar-se à dimensão prescritiva das políticas educativas, que se evidencia especialmente nos normativos, documentos e discursos oficiais. Assim, e no pressuposto de que o desafio da democratização e qualificação dos níveis de ensino a montante do ensino superior é assumido com determinação pelo Estado e demais atores, as ações afirmativas no ensino superior serão tanto mais bem-sucedidas quanto maior for a sua assunção efetiva a nível das academias, quer mediante o engajamento e protagonismo dos alunos beneficiários dessas medidas, quer através da realização dos currículos prescritos numa perspetiva interpretativa, inovadora, diferenciada e emancipadora, traduzindo a essência democrática e inclusiva do ato pedagógico.

O global e o local nos processos de prescrição e realização do currículo e na promoção do conhecimento universal. O caso da Universidade de Cabo Verde

Na abordagem da problemática do currículo e do seu desenvolvimento no contexto do ensino superior, tem-se enfatizado a centralidade do conhecimento científico, com a consequente tradução do global e do local na produção científica, bem como nas prescrições e nas práxis curriculares. Entretanto, a tendência para, à escala internacional, prevalecerem lógicas hegemónicas e mercadológicas na prescrição e aferição do conhecimento válido, e a existência de gritantes assimetrias entre os países centrais e da periferia na produção científica constituem sérios desafios na promoção de uma educação e de um ensino superior pautados por perspetivas contra-hegemónicas e humanistas. No entanto, não é suficiente a denúncia do hegemonismo científico e curricular, nem mesmo a reivindicação, a nível dos discursos, quer de um maior protagonismo dos países periféricos na promoção do património mundial do conhecimento, quer de uma mais efetiva autonomia das universidades na conceção dos currículos e projetos de formação. Nesta conferência, sustenta-se que não só é possível aliar-se o global e o local nos processos de formulação das opções curriculares e dos projetos de formação, mediante a instauração de lógicas idiossincráticas, democráticas e emancipadoras na tradução do desígnio nacional de desenvolvimento dos países da periferia, como existe um vasto potencial de oportunidades de inovação, adaptação e recriação do currículo no contexto das atividades académicas, com a consequente promoção das epistemologias dos referidos países, como contribuição para a valorização do património universal do conhecimento.

Global Genomic Diversity of Human Papillomavirus 6 Based on 724 Isolates and 190 Complete Genome Sequences.

Human papillomavirus type 6 (HPV6) is the major etiological agent of anogenital warts and laryngeal papillomas and has been included in both the quadrivalent and nonavalent prophylactic HPV vaccines. This study investigated the global genomic diversity of HPV6, using 724 isolates and 190 complete genomes from six continents, and the association of HPV6 genomic variants with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and gender. Initially, a 2,800-bp E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment was sequenced from 492/530 (92.8%) HPV6-positive samples collected for this study. Among them, 130 exhibited at least one single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), indel, or amino acid change in the E5a-E5b-L1-LCR fragment and were sequenced in full. A global alignment and maximum likelihood tree of 190 complete HPV6 genomes (130 fully sequenced in this study and 60 obtained from sequence repositories) revealed two variant lineages, A and B, and five B sublineages: B1, B2, B3, B4, and B5. HPV6 (sub)lineage-specific SNPs and a 960-bp representative region for whole-genome-based phylogenetic clustering within the L2 open reading frame were identified. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lineage B predominated globally. Sublineage B3 was more common in Africa and North and South America, and lineage A was more common in Asia. Sublineages B1 and B3 were associated with anogenital infections, indicating a potential lesion-specific predilection of some HPV6 sublineages. Females had higher odds for infection with sublineage B3 than males. In conclusion, a global HPV6 phylogenetic analysis revealed the existence of two variant lineages and five sublineages, showing some degree of ethnogeographic, gender, and/or disease predilection in their distribution. IMPORTANCE: This study established the largest database of globally circulating HPV6 genomic variants and contributed a total of 130 new, complete HPV6 genome sequences to available sequence repositories. Two HPV6 variant lineages and five sublineages were identified and showed some degree of association with geographical location, anatomical site of infection/disease, and/or gender. We additionally identified several HPV6 lineage- and sublineage-specific SNPs to facilitate the identification of HPV6 variants and determined a representative region within the L2 gene that is suitable for HPV6 whole-genome-based phylogenetic analysis. This study complements and significantly expands the current knowledge of HPV6 genetic diversity and forms a comprehensive basis for future epidemiological, evolutionary, functional, pathogenicity, vaccination, and molecular assay development studies.

Small RNA as global regulator of carbon catabolite repression in Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

In the metabolically versatile bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa, the RNA-binding protein Crc is involved in catabolite repression of a range of degradative genes, such as amiE (encoding aliphatic amidase). We found that a CA-rich sequence (termed CA motif) in the amiE translation initiation region was important for Crc binding. The small RNA CrcZ (407 nt) containing 5 CA motifs was able to bind the Crc protein with high affinity and to remove it from amiE mRNA in vitro. Overexpression of crcZ relieved catabolite repression in vivo, whereas a crcZ mutation pleiotropically prevented the utilization of several carbon sources. The sigma factor RpoN and the CbrA/CbrB two-component system, which is known to maintain a healthy carbon-nitrogen balance, were necessary for crcZ expression. During growth on succinate, a preferred carbon source, CrcZ expression was low, resulting in catabolite repression of amiE and other genes under Crc control. By contrast, during growth on mannitol, a poor carbon source, elevated CrcZ levels correlated with relief of catabolite repression. During growth on glucose, an intermediate carbon source, CrcZ levels and amiE expression were intermediate between those observed in succinate and mannitol media. Thus, the CbrA-CbrB-CrcZ-Crc system allows the bacterium to adapt differentially to various carbon sources. This cascade also regulated the expression of the xylS (benR) gene, which encodes a transcriptional regulator involved in benzoate degradation, in an analogous way, confirming this cascade's global role.

Global radiolarian zonation for the Pliensbachian, Toarcian and Aalenian

Jurassic radiolarians from 220 samples in Queen Charlotte Islands, B.C., Williston Lake, B.C., east-central Oregon, Baja California Sur, southern Spain, Austria, Slovenia, Turkey, Oman, Japan and Argentina were studied in order to construct global zonation for the Pliensbachian, Toarcian and Aalenian stages. Well-preserved faunas from continuous stratigraphic sections in Queen Charlotte Islands provide the most detailed record for this time interval, and all collections are tied to North American ammonite zones or assemblages. Collections from nearly all other areas lack independent dating except for early Toarcian carbon-isotope dating in Slovenia and late Aalenian ammonites in Spain. A database of 197 widely distributed updated taxonomic species was used to construct a Unitary Association (UA) zonation for the interval. A global sequence of 41 UAs was obtained for the top of the Sinemurian to the base of the Bajocian. The first and the last UAs represent the Late Sinemurian and the Early Bajocian respectively. The remaining 39 UAs were merged into nine zones (four Early Pliensbachian, one Late Pliensbachian, one Early Toarcian, one Middle-Late Toarcian, and two Aalenian) according to prominent radiolarian faunal breaks and ammonite data. The new zones are the Canutus tip pen - Katroma clara Zone (latest Sinemurian/earliest Pliensbachian); Zartus mostleri - Pseudoristola megaglobosa, Hsuum mulleri - Trillus elkhornensis and Gigi fustis - Lantus sixi zones (Early Pliensbachian); Eucyrtidiellum nagaiae - Praeparvicingula tlellensis Zone (Late Pliensbachian); Napora relica - Eucyrtidiellum disparile Zone (Early Toarcian); Elodium pessagnoi - Hexasaturnalis hexagonus Zone (Middle and Late Toarcian); Higumastra transversa - Napora nipponica Zone (early Aalenian); and Mirifusus proavus - Transhsuum hisuikyoense Zone (late Aalenian). These zones can be correlated worldwide and link previously established UA zonations for the Hettangian-Sinemurian and the Middle to Upper Jurassic. The new zonation allows high-resolution dating in the studied interval and provides a solid basis for analyzing faunal turnovers and the paleobiogeography of Jurassic radiolarians. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gene-Age Interactions in Blood Pressure Regulation: A Large-Scale Investigation with the CHARGE, Global BPgen, and ICBP Consortia.

Although age-dependent effects on blood pressure (BP) have been reported, they have not been systematically investigated in large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We leveraged the infrastructure of three well-established consortia (CHARGE, GBPgen, and ICBP) and a nonstandard approach (age stratification and metaregression) to conduct a genome-wide search of common variants with age-dependent effects on systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP), mean arterial (MAP), and pulse (PP) pressure. In a two-staged design using 99,241 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 20 genome-wide significant (p ≤ 5 × 10(-8)) loci by using joint tests of the SNP main effect and SNP-age interaction. Nine of the significant loci demonstrated nominal evidence of age-dependent effects on BP by tests of the interactions alone. Index SNPs in the EHBP1L1 (DBP and MAP), CASZ1 (SBP and MAP), and GOSR2 (PP) loci exhibited the largest age interactions, with opposite directions of effect in the young versus the old. The changes in the genetic effects over time were small but nonnegligible (up to 1.58 mm Hg over 60 years). The EHBP1L1 locus was discovered through gene-age interactions only in whites but had DBP main effects replicated (p = 8.3 × 10(-4)) in 8,682 Asians from Singapore, indicating potential interethnic heterogeneity. A secondary analysis revealed 22 loci with evidence of age-specific effects (e.g., only in 20 to 29-year-olds). Age can be used to select samples with larger genetic effect sizes and more homogenous phenotypes, which may increase statistical power. Age-dependent effects identified through novel statistical approaches can provide insight into the biology and temporal regulation underlying BP associations.

The second law of thermodynamics and the global climate system : A review of the maximum entropy production principle

The long-term mean properties of the global climate system and those of turbulent fluid systems are reviewed from a thermodynamic viewpoint. Two general expressions are derived for a rate of entropy production due to thermal and viscous dissipation (turbulent dissipation) in a fluid system. It is shown with these expressions that maximum entropy production in the Earth s climate system suggested by Paltridge, as well as maximum transport properties of heat or momentum in a turbulent system suggested by Malkus and Busse, correspond to a state in which the rate of entropy production due to the turbulent dissipation is at a maximum. Entropy production due to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized properties associated with turbulence. The hypothesis of maximum entropy production also seems to be applicable to the planetary atmospheres of Mars and Titan and perhaps to mantle convection. Lorenz s conjecture on maximum generation of available potential energy is shown to be akin to this hypothesis with a few minor approximations. A possible mechanism by which turbulent fluid systems adjust themselves to the states of maximum entropy production is presented as a selffeedback mechanism for the generation of available potential energy. These results tend to support the hypothesis of maximum entropy production that underlies a wide variety of nonlinear fluid systems, including our planet as well as other planets and stars

Intervenciones de identidad territorial en el proceso global de construcción de imagen de marca de los destinos turísticos

La competitividad emergente entre destinos turísticos ha puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de enfatizar las estrategias de comunicación –con el fin de crear un valor añadido intangible para el potencial cliente- encaminadas a crear una imagen favorable de los espacios que se pretenden promocionar, mediante el diseño de acciones de comunicación con objetivos que van más allá del mero interés promocional o informativo. En este sentido, tanto los emplazamientos que conciben el turismo como una solución de diversificación económica (destinos emergentes), como las localizaciones geográficas que ya disponen de una cierta solera en relación a su tradición turística (destinos maduros), aúnan esfuerzos en aras de consolidar una identidad territorial acorde con sus posibilidades turísticas. Si además se tiene en cuenta que, en la actualidad, el consumo de imágenes percibidas a priori representa, de antemano, un primer viaje simbólico previo a un posterior viaje real, se puede llegar a vislumbrar el papel decisivo que desempeña la interpretación del consumidor (creación de imaginarios individuales y colectivos) en un escenario global de comercialización del territorio. Por tanto, el valor añadido en una situación de dura competencia entre destinos, radica en los valores que se asocian a la imagen de marca turística, que representa la primera carga de sensaciones y emociones que percibe el potencial turista y/o visitante antes de decidirse por uno u otro destino.