Screening for leprosy in immigrants: A decision analysis model

Almost all leprosy cases reported in industrialized countries occur amongst immigrants or refugees from developing countries where leprosy continues to be an important health issue. Screening for leprosy is an important question for governments in countries with immigration and refugee programmes. A decision analysis framework is used to evaluate leprosy screening. The analysis uses a set of criteria and parameters regarding leprosy screening, and available data to estimate the number of cases which would be detected by a leprosy screening programme of immigrants from countries with different leprosy prevalences, compared with a policy of waiting for immigrants who develop symptomatic clinical diseases to present for health care. In a cohort of 100,000 immigrants from high leprosy prevalence regions (3.6/10,000), screening would detect 32 of the 42 cases which would arise in the destination country over the 14 years after migration; from medium prevalence areas (0.7/10,000) 6.3 of the total 8.1 cases would be detected, and from low prevalence regions (0.2/10,600) 1.8 of 2.3 cases. Using Australian data, the migrant mix would produce 74 leprosy cases from 10 years intake; screening would detect 54, and 19 would be diagnosed subsequently after migration. Screening would only produce significant case-yield amongst immigrants from regions or social groups with high leprosy prevalence. Since the number of immigrants to Australia from countries of higher endemnicity is not large routine leprosy screening would have a small impact on case incidence.

A model of seller holdout

We model a buyer who wishes to combine objects owned by two separate sellers in order to realize higher value. Sellers are able to avoid entering into negotiations with the buyer, so that the order in which they negotiate is endogenous. Holdout occurs if at least one of the sellers is not present in the first round of negotiations. We demonstrate that complementarity of the buyer's technology is a necessary condition for equilibrium holdout. Moreover, a rise in complementarity leads to an increased likelihood of holdout, and an increased efficiency loss. Applications include patents, the land assembly problem, and mergers.

Environmental impact evaluation using a cooperative model for implementing EMS (ISO 14001) in small and medium-sized enterprises

Certification of an ISO 14001 Environmental Management System (EMS) is currently an important requirement for those enterprises wishing to sell their products in the context of a global market. The system`s structure is based on environmental impact evaluation (EIE). However, if an erroneous or inadequate methodology is applied, the entire process may be jeopardized. Many methodologies have been developed for making of EIEs, some of them are fairly complex and unsuitable for EMS implementation in an organizational context, principally when small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) are involved. The proposed methodology for EIE is part of a model for implementing EMS. The methodological approach used was a qualitative exploratory research method based upon sources of evidence such as document analyses, semi-structured interviews and participant observations. By adopting a cooperative implementation model based on the theory of system engineering, difficulties relating to implementation of the sub-system were overcome thus encouraging SMEs to implement EMS. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Equine laminitis: loss of hemidesmosomes in hoof secondary epidermal lamellae correlates to dose in an oligofructose induction model: an ultrastructural study

Reasons for performing study: Light microscopical studies show that the key lesion of laminitis is separation at the hoof lamellar dermal-epidermal interface. More precise knowledge of the damage occurring in the lamellar basement membrane zone may result if laminitis affected tissue is examined with the transmission electron microscope. This could lead to better understanding of the pathogenesis of lesions and the means of treatment or prevention. Objectives: To investigate the ultrastructure of acute laminitis as disease of greater severity is induced by increasing oligofructose (OF) dosage. Methods: Three pairs of normal horses, dosed with OF at 7.5, 10 and 12.5 g/kg bwt via nasogastric intubation, developed laminitis 48 h later. Following euthanasia, their forefeet were processed for transmission electron microscopy. Lamellar basal cell hemidesmosome (HD) numbers and the distance between the basal cell plasmalemma and the lamina densa of the basement membrane were estimated and compared to control tissue. Results: Increasing OF dosage caused greater HD loss and more severe laminitis. The characteristic separation of the basement membrane, cytoskeleton failure and rounded basal cell nuclei results from combined HD dysassembly and anchoring filament failure. Conclusions: Without properly assembled HDs, dysadhesion between the lamina densa of the basement membrane (BM) and epidermal basal cells occurs, emphasising the fundamental importance of HDs in maintaining attachment at the lamellar interface. Medical conditions that trigger lamellar matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activation and/or compromise entry of glucose into lamellar basal cells appear to promote loss and failure of HDs and, therefore, laminitis development. Potential relevance: A correlation between lameness severity and escalating loss of lamellar HDs now exists. Therapy aimed at protecting the lamellar environment from haematogenous delivery of MMP activators or from glucose deprivation may control laminitis development.

Systemic Model for Diagnosis of the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises from Two Cities from the Countryside of the State of So Paulo in Brazil

This article presents a proposal of a systemic model composed for the micro and small companies (MSE) of the region of Ribeiro Preto and the agents which influenced their environment. The proposed model was based on Stafford Beer`s (Diagnosing the system for organizations. Chichester, Wiley, 1985) systemic methodologies VSM (Viable System Model) and on Werner Ulrich`s (1983) CSH (Critical Systems Heuristics). The VSM is a model for the diagnosis of the structure of an organization and of its flows of information through the application of the cybernetics concepts (Narvarte, In El Modelo del Sistema Viable-MSV: experiencias de su aplicacin en Chile. Proyecto Cerebro Colectivo del IAS, Santiago, 2001). On the other hand, CSH focus on the context of the social group applied to the systemic vision as a counterpoint to the organizational management view considered by the VSM. MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho had been analyzed as organizations inserted in systems that relate and integrate with other systems concerning the public administration, entities of representation and promotion agencies. The research questions: which are the bonds of interaction among the subsystems in this process and who are the agents involved? The systemic approach not only diagnosed a social group, formed by MSE of Ribeiro Preto and Sertozinho, public authorities and support entities, but could also delineate answers that aimed the clarification of obscure questions generating financial assistance to the formularization of efficient actions for the development of this system.

A cyclic peptide, C5a receptor antagonist analogue confers increased potency in a model of inflammatory bowel disease in rats

No abstract

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Integrability and exact solution of an electronic model with long range interactions

We present an electronic model with long range interactions. Through the quantum inverse scattering method, integrability of the model is established using a one-parameter family of typical irreducible representations of gl(211). The eigenvalues of the conserved operators are derived in terms of the Bethe ansatz, from which the energy eigenvalues of the Hamiltonian are obtained.

Cost-effectiveness of psychological and pharmacological interventions for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]). Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.

Allochronic taxa as an alternative model to explain circumantarctic disjunctions

Most biogeographical studies propose that southern temperate faunal disjunctions are either the result of vicariance of taxa originated in Gondwana or the result of transoceanic dispersal of taxa originated after the breakup of Gondwana. The aim of this paper is to show that this is a false dichotomy. Antarctica retained a mild climate until mid-Cenozoic and had lasting connections, notably with southern South America and Australia. Both taxa originally Gondwanan and taxa secondarily on Gondwanan areas were subjected to tectonic-induced vicariance, and there is no need to invoke ad hoc transoceanic dispersal, even for post-Gondwanan taxa. These different elements with circumantarctic distributions are here called `allochronic taxa` - taxa presently occupying the same area, but whose presence in that area does not belong to the same time period. This model allows accommodation of conflicting sources of evidence now available for many groups with circumantarctic distributions. The fact that the species from both layers are mixed up in the current biodiversity implies the need to use additional sources of evidence - such as biogeographical, palaeontological, geological and molecular - to discriminate which are the original Gondwanan and which are post-Gondwanan elements in austral landmasses.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Matching occupation and self: Does matching theory adequately model children's thinking?

The present exploratory-descriptive cross-national study focused on the career development of 11- to 14-yr.-old children, in particular whether they can match their personal characteristics with their occupational aspirations. Further, the study explored whether their matching may be explained in terms of a fit between person and environment using Holland's theory as an example. Participants included 511 South African and 372 Australian children. Findings relate to two items of the Revised Career Awareness Survey that require children to relate personal-social knowledge to their favorite occupation. Data were analyzed in three stages using descriptive statistics, i.e., mean scores, frequencies, and percentage agreement. The study indicated that children perceived their personal characteristics to be related to their occupational aspirations. However, how this matching takes place is not adequately accounted for in terms of a career theory such as that of Holland.