The extrapolation problem and how population modeling can help

We argue that population modeling can add value to ecological risk assessment by reducing uncertainty when extrapolating from ecotoxicological observations to relevant ecological effects. We review other methods of extrapolation, ranging from application factors to species sensitivity distributions to suborganismal (biomarker and "-omics'') responses to quantitative structure activity relationships and model ecosystems, drawing attention to the limitations of each. We suggest a simple classification of population models and critically examine each model in an extrapolation context. We conclude that population models have the potential for adding value to ecological risk assessment by incorporating better understanding of the links between individual responses and population size and structure and by incorporating greater levels of ecological complexity. A number of issues, however, need to be addressed before such models are likely to become more widely used. In a science context, these involve challenges in parameterization, questions about appropriate levels of complexity, issues concerning how specific or general the models need to be, and the extent to which interactions through competition and trophic relationships can be easily incorporated.

Glycogen phosphorylase inhibitors: a free energy perturbation analysis of glucopyranose spirohydantoin analogues

GP catalyzes the phosphorylation of glycogen to Glc-1-P. Because of its fundamental role in the metabolism of glycogen, GP has been the target for a systematic structure-assisted design of inhibitory compounds, which could be of value in the therapeutic treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The most potent catalytic-site inhibitor of GP identified to date is spirohydantoin of glucopyranose (hydan). In this work, we employ MD free energy simulations to calculate the relative binding affinities for GP of hydan and two spirohydantoin analogues, methyl-hydan and n-hydan, in which a hydrogen atom is replaced by a methyl- or amino group, respectively. The results are compared with the experimental relative affinities of these ligands, estimated by kinetic measurements of the ligand inhibition constants. The calculated binding affinity for methyl-hydan (relative to hydan) is 3.75 +/- 1.4 kcal/mol, in excellent agreement with the experimental value (3.6 +/- 0.2 kcal/mol). For n-hydan, the calculated value is 1.0 +/- 1.1 kcal/mol, somewhat smaller than the experimental result (2.3 +/- 0.1 kcal/mol). A free energy decomposition analysis shows that hydan makes optimum interactions with protein residues and specific water molecules in the catalytic site. In the other two ligands, structural perturbations of the active site by the additional methyl- or amino group reduce the corresponding binding affinities. The computed binding free energies are sensitive to the preference of a specific water molecule for two well-defined positions in the catalytic site. The behavior of this water is analyzed in detail, and the free energy profile for the translocation of the water between the two positions is evaluated. The results provide insights into the role of water molecules in modulating ligand binding affinities. A comparison of the interactions between a set of ligands and their surrounding groups in X-ray structures is often used in the interpretation of binding free energy differences and in guiding the design of new ligands. For the systems in this work, such an approach fails to estimate the order of relative binding strengths, in contrast to the rigorous free energy treatment.

High value information in engineering organisations

The management of information in engineering organisations is facing a particular challenge in the ever-increasing volume of information. It has been recognised that an effective methodology is required to evaluate information in order to avoid information overload and to retain the right information for reuse. By using, as a starting point, a number of the current tools and techniques which attempt to obtain ‘the value’ of information, it is proposed that an assessment or filter mechanism for information is needed to be developed. This paper addresses this issue firstly by briefly reviewing the information overload problem, the definition of value, and related research work on the value of information in various areas. Then a “characteristic” based framework of information evaluation is introduced using the key characteristics identified from related work as an example. A Bayesian Network diagram method is introduced to the framework to build the linkage between the characteristics and information value in order to quantitatively calculate the quality and value of information. The training and verification process for the model is then described using 60 real engineering documents as a sample. The model gives a reasonable accurate result and the differences between the model calculation and training judgements are summarised as the potential causes are discussed. Finally, several further issues including the challenge of the framework and the implementations of this evaluation assessment method are raised.

Vertical velocity variance and skewness in clear and cloud-topped boundary layers as revealed by Doppler lidar

In this paper, observations by a ground-based vertically pointing Doppler lidar and sonic anemometer are used to investigate the diurnal evolution of boundary-layer turbulence in cloudless, cumulus and stratocumulus conditions. When turbulence is driven primarily by surface heating, such as in cloudless and cumulus-topped boundary layers, both the vertical velocity variance and skewness follow similar profiles, on average, to previous observational studies of turbulence in convective conditions, with a peak skewness of around 0.8 in the upper third of the mixed layer. When the turbulence is driven primarily by cloud-top radiative cooling, such as in the presence of nocturnal stratocumulus, it is found that the skewness is inverted in both sign and height: its minimum value of around −0.9 occurs in the lower third of the mixed layer. The profile of variance is consistent with a cloud-top cooling rate of around 30Wm−2. This is also consistent with the evolution of the thermodynamic profile and the rate of growth of the mixed layer into the stable nocturnal boundary layer from above. In conditions where surface heating occurs simultaneously with cloud-top cooling, the skewness is found to be useful for diagnosing the source of the turbulence, suggesting that long-term Doppler lidar observations would be valuable for evaluating boundary-layer parametrization schemes. Copyright c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

A high frequency boundary element method for scattering by convex polygons with impedance boundary conditions

We consider scattering of a time harmonic incident plane wave by a convex polygon with piecewise constant impedance boundary conditions. Standard finite or boundary element methods require the number of degrees of freedom to grow at least linearly with respect to the frequency of the incident wave in order to maintain accuracy. Extending earlier work by Chandler-Wilde and Langdon for the sound soft problem, we propose a novel Galerkin boundary element method, with the approximation space consisting of the products of plane waves with piecewise polynomials supported on a graded mesh with smaller elements closer to the corners of the polygon. Theoretical analysis and numerical results suggest that the number of degrees of freedom required to achieve a prescribed level of accuracy grows only logarithmically with respect to the frequency of the incident wave.

On the principal eigenvalue of a Robin problem with a large parameter

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the principal eigenvalue of a Robin (or generalised Neumann) problem with a large parameter in the boundary condition for the Laplacian in a piecewise smooth domain. We show that the leading asymptotic term depends only on the singularities of the boundary of the domain, and give either explicit expressions or two-sided estimates for this term in a variety of situations.

Switching on a two-dimensional time-harmonic scalar wave in the presence of a diffracting edge

This paper concerns the switching on of two-dimensional time-harmonic scalar waves. We first review the switch-on problem for a point source in free space, then proceed to analyse the analogous problem for the diffraction of a plane wave by a half-line (the ‘Sommerfeld problem’), determining in both cases the conditions under which the field is well-approximated by the solution of the corresponding frequency domain problem. In both cases the rate of convergence to the frequency domain solution is found to be dependent on the strength of the singularity on the leading wavefront. In the case of plane wave diffraction at grazing incidence the frequency domain solution is immediately attained along the shadow boundary after the arrival of the leading wavefront. The case of non-grazing incidence is also considered.

A new frequency-uniform coercive boundary integral equation for acoustic scattering

A new boundary integral operator is introduced for the solution of the soundsoft acoustic scattering problem, i.e., for the exterior problem for the Helmholtz equation with Dirichlet boundary conditions. We prove that this integral operator is coercive in L2(Γ) (where Γ is the surface of the scatterer) for all Lipschitz star-shaped domains. Moreover, the coercivity is uniform in the wavenumber k = ω/c, where ω is the frequency and c is the speed of sound. The new boundary integral operator, which we call the “star-combined” potential operator, is a slight modification of the standard combined potential operator, and is shown to be as easy to implement as the standard one. Additionally, to the authors' knowledge, it is the only second-kind integral operator for which convergence of the Galerkin method in L2(Γ) is proved without smoothness assumptions on Γ except that it is Lipschitz. The coercivity of the star-combined operator implies frequency-explicit error bounds for the Galerkin method for any approximation space. In particular, these error estimates apply to several hybrid asymptoticnumerical methods developed recently that provide robust approximations in the high-frequency case. The proof of coercivity of the star-combined operator critically relies on an identity first introduced by Morawetz and Ludwig in 1968, supplemented further by more recent harmonic analysis techniques for Lipschitz domains.

Moisture vertical structure, column water vapor, and tropical deep convection

The vertical structure of the relationship between water vapor and precipitation is analyzed in 5 yr of radiosonde and precipitation gauge data from the Nauru Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. The first vertical principal component of specific humidity is very highly correlated with column water vapor (CWV) and has a maximum of both total and fractional variance captured in the lower free troposphere (around 800 hPa). Moisture profiles conditionally averaged on precipitation show a strong association between rainfall and moisture variability in the free troposphere and little boundary layer variability. A sharp pickup in precipitation occurs near a critical value of CWV, confirming satellite-based studies. A lag–lead analysis suggests it is unlikely that the increase in water vapor is just a result of the falling precipitation. To investigate mechanisms for the CWV–precipitation relationship, entraining plume buoyancy is examined in sonde data and simplified cases. For several different mixing schemes, higher CWV results in progressively greater plume buoyancies, particularly in the upper troposphere, indicating conditions favorable for deep convection. All other things being equal, higher values of lower-tropospheric humidity, via entrainment, play a major role in this buoyancy increase. A small but significant increase in subcloud layer moisture with increasing CWV also contributes to buoyancy. Entrainment coefficients inversely proportional to distance from the surface, associated with mass flux increase through a deep lower-tropospheric layer, appear promising. These yield a relatively even weighting through the lower troposphere for the contribution of environmental water vapor to midtropospheric buoyancy, explaining the association of CWV and buoyancy available for deep convection.

Options for enhancing the biodiversity value of intensive livestock farms: experience from the English agri-environment schemes

Permanent grassland makes up a greater proportion of the agricultural area in the UK and Ireland than in any other EU country, representing 60% and 72% of UAA respectively (Eurostat 2007). Of the permanent grassland in the UK, approximately half (about 6 million hectares) comprises improved grassland on moist or free-draining neutral soils typical of lowland livestock farms. These swards tend to have low plant species richness and are typically dominated by perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne). The aim of this paper is to review the ways in which biodiversity of such farmland can be enhanced, focussing on the evidence behind management options in English agri-environment schemes (AES) at a range of scales and utilising a range of mechanisms.

Theoretical perspectives on the development of a meta-methodology for value management

This paper provides a new set of theoretical perspectives on the topic of value management in building procurement. On the evidence of the current literature it is possible to identify two distinct methodologies which are based on different epistemological positions. An argument is developed which sees these two methodologies to be complementary. A tentative meta-methodology is then outlined for matching methodologies to different problem situations. It is contended however that such a meta-methodology could never provide a prescriptive guide. Its usefulness lies in the way in which it provides the basis for reflective practice. Of central importance is the need to understand the problem context within which value management is to be applied. The distinctions between unitary, pluralistic and coercive situations are seen to be especially significant.

Ω-results for Beurling's zeta function and lower bounds for the generalised Dirichlet divisor problem

In this paper we study generalised prime systems for which the integer counting function NP(x) is asymptotically well behaved, in the sense that NP(x)=ρx+O(xβ), where ρ is a positive constant and . For such systems, the associated zeta function ζP(s) is holomorphic for . We prove that for , for any ε>0, and also for ε=0 for all such σ except possibly one value. The Dirichlet divisor problem for generalised integers concerns the size of the error term in NkP(x)−Ress=1(ζPk(s)xs/s), which is O(xθ) for some θ<1. Letting αk denote the infimum of such θ, we show that .

Curriculum theory, curriculum policy and the problem of ill-disciplined thinking

This paper examines the implications of policy fracture and arms length governance within the decision making processes currently shaping curriculum design within the English education system. In particular it argues that an unresolved ‘ideological fracture’ at government level has been passed down to school leaders whose response to the dilemma is distorted by the target-driven agenda of arms length agencies. Drawing upon the findings of a large scale on-line survey of history teaching in English secondary schools, this paper illustrates the problems that occur when policy making is divorced from curriculum theory, and in particular from any consideration of the nature of knowledge. Drawing on the social realist theory of knowledge elaborated by Young (2008), we argue that the rapid spread of alternative curricular arrangements, implemented in the absence of an understanding of curriculum theory, undermines the value of disciplined thinking to the detriment of many young people, particularly those in areas of social and economic deprivation.

A new floating model level scheme for the assimilation of boundary layer top inversions: the univariate assimilation of temperature.

The assimilation of observations with a forecast is often heavily influenced by the description of the error covariances associated with the forecast. When a temperature inversion is present at the top of the boundary layer (BL), a significant part of the forecast error may be described as a vertical positional error (as opposed to amplitude error normally dealt with in data assimilation). In these cases, failing to account for positional error explicitly is shown t o r esult in an analysis for which the inversion structure is erroneously weakened and degraded. In this article, a new assimilation scheme is proposed to explicitly include the positional error associated with an inversion. This is done through the introduction of an extra control variable to allow position errors in the a priori to be treated simultaneously with the usual amplitude errors. This new scheme, referred to as the ‘floating BL scheme’, is applied to the one-dimensional (vertical) variational assimilation of temperature. The floating BL scheme is tested with a series of idealised experiments a nd with real data from radiosondes. For each idealised experiment, the floating BL scheme gives an analysis which has the inversion structure and position in agreement with the truth, and outperforms the a ssimilation which accounts only for forecast a mplitude error. When the floating BL scheme is used to assimilate a l arge sample of radiosonde data, its ability to give an analysis with an inversion height in better agreement with that observed is confirmed. However, it is found that the use of Gaussian statistics is an inappropriate description o f t he error statistics o f t he extra c ontrol variable. This problem is alleviated by incorporating a non-Gaussian description of the new control variable in the new scheme. Anticipated challenges in implementing the scheme operationally are discussed towards the end of the article.

The acrylamide problem: a plant and agronomic science issue.

Acrylamide, a chemical that is probably carcinogenic in humans and has neurological and reproductive effects, forms from free asparagine and reducing sugars during high-temperature cooking and processing of common foods. Potato and cereal products are major contributors to dietary exposure to acrylamide and while the food industry reacted rapidly to the discovery of acrylamide in some of the most popular foods, the issue remains a difficult one for many sectors. Efforts to reduce acrylamide formation would be greatly facilitated by the development of crop varieties with lower concentrations of free asparagine and/or reducing sugars, and of best agronomic practice to ensure that concentrations are kept as low as possible. This review describes how acrylamide is formed, the factors affecting free asparagine and sugar concentrations in crop plants, and the sometimes complex relationship between precursor concentration and acrylamide-forming potential. It covers some of the strategies being used to reduce free asparagine and sugar concentrations through genetic modification and other genetic techniques, such as the identification of quantitative trait loci. The link between acrylamide formation, flavour, and colour is discussed, as well as the difficulty of balancing the unknown risk of exposure to acrylamide in the levels that are present in foods with the well-established health benefits of some of the foods concerned. Key words: Amino acids, asparagine, cereals, crop quality, food safety, Maillard reaction, potato, rye, sugars, wheat.