A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics

This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32

A positive interaction between inhibitors of protein synthesis and cefepime in the fight against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

Quinupristin-dalfopristin (Q-D) synergizes with cefepime for the treatment of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Here, we studied whether the synergism was restricted to MRSA and if it extended to non-beta-lactam cell wall inhibitors or to other inhibitors of protein synthesis. Three MRSA and two methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) strains were tested, including an isogenic pair of mecA (-)/mecA (+) S. aureus Newman. The drug interactions were determined by fractional inhibitory concentration (FIC) indices and population analysis profiles. The antibacterial drugs that we used included beta-lactam (cefepime) and non-beta-lactam cell wall inhibitors (D-cycloserine, fosfomycin, vancomycin, teicoplanin), inhibitors of protein synthesis (Q-D, erythromycin, chloramphenicol, tetracycline, linezolid, fusidic acid), and polynucleotide inhibitors (cotrimoxazole, ciprofloxacin). The addition of each protein inhibitor to cefepime was synergistic (FIC ≤ 0.5) or additive (FIC > 0.5 but < 1) against MRSA, but mostly indifferent against MSSA (FIC ≥ 1 but ≤ 4). This segregation was not observed after adding cotrimoxazole or ciprofloxacin to cefepime. Population analysis profiles were performed on plates in the presence of increasing concentrations of the cell wall inhibitors plus 0.25 × minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of Q-D. Cefepime combined with Q-D was synergistic against MRSA, but D-cycloserine and glycopeptides were not. Thus, the synergism was specific to beta-lactam antibiotics. Moreover, the synergism was not lost against fem mutants, indicating that it acted at another level. The restriction of the beneficial effect to MRSA suggests that the functionality of penicillin-binding protein 2A (PBP2A) was affected, either directly or indirectly. Further studies are necessary in order to provide a mechanism for this positive interaction.

Asymmetry of Functional Connectivity in Schizophrenia at Different Spatial Scales

Introduction: The interhemispheric asymmetries that originate from connectivity-related structuring of the cerebral cortex are compromised in schizophrenia (SZ). Recently, we have revealed the whole-head topography of EEG synchronization in SZ (Jalili et al. 2007; Knyazeva et al. 2008). Here we extended the analysis to assess the abnormality in the asymmetry of synchronization, which is further motivated by the evidence that the interhemispheric asymmetries suspected to be abnormal in SZ originate from the connectivity-related structuring of the cortex. Methods: Thirteen right-handed SZ patients and thirteen matched controls, participated in this study and the multichannel (128) EEGs were recorded for 3-5 minutes at rest. Then, Laplacian EEG (LEEG) were calculated using a 2-D spline. The LEEGs were analysis through calculating the power spectral density using Welch's average periodogram method. Furthermore, using a state-space based multivariate synchronization measure, S-estimator, we analyzed the correlate of the functional cortico-cortical connectivity in SZ patients compared to the controls. The values of S-estimator were obtained at three different special scales: first-order neighbors for each sensor location, second-order neighbors, and the whole hemisphere. The synchronization measures based on LEEG of alpha and beta bands were applied and tuned to various spatial scales including local, intraregional, and long-distance levels. To assess the between-group differences, we used a permutation version of Hotelling's T2 test. For correlation analysis, Spearman Rank Correlation was calculated. Results: Compared to the controls, who had rightward asymmetry at a local level (LEEG power), rightward anterior and leftward posterior asymmetries at an intraregional level (first- and second-order S-estimator), and rightward global asymmetry (hemispheric S-estimator), SZ patients showed generally attenuated asymmetry, the effect being strongest for intraregional synchronization. This deviation in asymmetry across the anterior-to-posterior axis is consistent with the cerebral form of the so-called Yakovlevian or anticlockwise cerebral torque. Moreover, the negative occipital and positive frontal asymmetry values suggest higher regional synchronization among the left occipital and the right frontal locations relative to their symmetrical counterparts. Correlation analysis linked the posterior intraregional and hemispheric abnormalities to the negative SZ symptoms, whereas the asymmetry of LEEG power appeared to be weakly coupled to clinical ratings. The posterior intraregional abnormalities of asymmetry were shown to increase with the duration of the disease. The tentative links between these findings and gross anatomical asymmetries, including the cerebral torque and gyrification pattern in normal subjects and SZ patients, are discussed. Conclusions: Overall, our findings reveal the abnormalities in the synchronization asymmetry in SZ patients and heavy involvement of the right hemisphere in these abnormalities. These results indicate that anomalous asymmetry of cortico-cortical connections in schizophrenia is amenable to electrophysiological analysis.

Sähkökoneen staattorikäämityksen kehittäminen

Tämä insinöörityö tehtiin ABB:n Pitäjänmäen konetehtaalle Tahtikoneet-tulosyksikölle. Työssä tutkittiin mahdollisuuksia valmistaa murtovakovyyhtejä kestomagneettituuligeneraattoreihin, joissa vakoluku on alle yhden. Työ tehtiin tutustumalla aluksi Pitäjänmäen konetehtaan käytössä oleviin vyyhden valmistus- ja käämintämenetelmiin. Lisäksi tutkittiin erilaisia mahdollisia murtovakovyyhden valmistusmenetelmiä, joista lupaavimpia myös kokeiltiin. Saatujen kokemusten pohjalta valittiin vyyhden valmistusmenetelmä, jonka mukaan valmistettiin koe-erä. Koe-erälle suoritettiin mittauksia, joilla varmistettiin niiden sähköinen kestävyys Työn tuloksena valitulla valmistusmenetelmällä valmistettiin vyyhdet prototyyppi tuuligeneraattorin.

Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components

This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliary regression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d ∈ [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d & 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 ≤ d & 1,, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributed tests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.

The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

RV contractility and exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension in chronic mountain sickness: a stress echocardiographic and tissue Doppler imaging study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular function and pulmonary circulation in chronic mountain sickness (CMS) patients with rest and stress echocardiography compared with healthy high-altitude (HA) dwellers. BACKGROUND: CMS or Monge's disease is defined by excessive erythrocytosis (hemoglobin >21 g/dl in males, 19 g/dl in females) and severe hypoxemia. In some cases, a moderate or severe increase in pulmonary pressure is present, suggesting a similar pathogenesis of pulmonary hypertension. METHODS: In La Paz (Bolivia, 3,600 m sea level), 46 CMS patients and 40 HA dwellers of similar age were evaluated at rest and during semisupine bicycle exercise. Pulmonary artery pressure (PAP), pulmonary vascular resistance, and cardiac function were estimated by Doppler echocardiography. RESULTS: Compared with HA dwellers, CMS patients showed RV dilation at rest (RV mid diameter: 36 ± 5 mm vs. 32 ± 4 mm, CMS vs. HA, p = 0.001) and reduced RV fractional area change both at rest (35 ± 9% vs. 43 ± 9%, p = 0.002) and during exercise (36 ± 9% vs. 43 ± 8%, CMS vs. HA, p = 0.005). The RV systolic longitudinal function (RV-S') decreased in CMS patients, whereas it increased in the control patients (p < 0.0001) at peak stress. The RV end-systolic pressure-area relationship, a load independent surrogate of RV contractility, was similar in CMS patients and HA dwellers with a significant increase in systolic PAP and pulmonary vascular resistance in CMS patients (systolic PAP: 50 ± 12 mm Hg vs. 38 ± 8 mm Hg, CMS vs. HA, p < 0.0001; pulmonary vascular resistance: 2.9 ± 1 mm Hg/min/l vs. 2.2 ± 1 mm Hg/min/l, p = 0.03). Both groups showed comparable systolic and diastolic left ventricular function both at rest and during stress. CONCLUSIONS: Comparable RV contractile reserve in CMS and HA suggests that the lower resting values of RV function in CMS may represent a physiological adaptation to chronic hypoxic conditions rather than impaired RV function. (Chronic Mountain Sickness, Systemic Vascular Function [CMS]; NCT01182792).

Psychogenic seizures and frontal disconnection: EEG synchronisation study.

Objective Psychogenic non-epileptic seizures (PNES) are paroxysmal events that, in contrast to epileptic seizures, are related to psychological causes without the presence of epileptiform EEG changes. Recent models suggest a multifactorial basis for PNES. A potentially paramount, but currently poorly understood factor is the interplay between psychiatric features and a specific vulnerability of the brain leading to a clinical picture that resembles epilepsy. Hypothesising that functional cerebral network abnormalities may predispose to the clinical phenotype, the authors undertook a characterisation of the functional connectivity in PNES patients. Methods The authors analysed the whole-head surface topography of multivariate phase synchronisation (MPS) in interictal high-density EEG of 13 PNES patients as compared with 13 age- and sex-matched controls. MPS mapping reduces the wealth of dynamic data obtained from high-density EEG to easily readable synchronisation maps, which provide an unbiased overview of any changes in functional connectivity associated with distributed cortical abnormalities. The authors computed MPS maps for both Laplacian and common-average-reference EEGs. Results In a between-group comparison, only patchy, non-uniform changes in MPS survived conservative statistical testing. However, against the background of these unimpressive group results, the authors found widespread inverse correlations between individual PNES frequency and MPS within the prefrontal and parietal cortices. Interpretation PNES appears to be associated with decreased prefrontal and parietal synchronisation, possibly reflecting dysfunction of networks within these regions.

Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components

This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliaryregression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d < 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 = d < 1, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributedtests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.

Combined analysis of grey matter voxel-based morphometry and white matter tract-based spatial statistics in late-life bipolar disorder.

Background: Previous magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies in young patients with bipolar disorder indicated the presence of grey matter concentration changes as well as microstructural alterations in white matter in various neocortical areas and the corpus callosum. Whether these structural changes are also present in elderly patients with bipolar disorder with long-lasting clinical evolution remains unclear. Methods: We performed a prospective MRI study of consecutive elderly, euthymic patients with bipolar disorder and healthy, elderly controls. We conducted a voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis and a tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) analysis to assess fractional anisotropy and longitudinal, radial and mean diffusivity derived by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Results: We included 19 patients with bipolar disorder and 47 controls in our study. Fractional anisotropy was the most sensitive DTI marker and decreased significantly in the ventral part of the corpus callosum in patients with bipolar disorder. Longitudinal, radial and mean diffusivity showed no significant between-group differences. Grey matter concentration was reduced in patients with bipolar disorder in the right anterior insula, head of the caudate nucleus, nucleus accumbens, ventral putamen and frontal orbital cortex. Conversely, there was no grey matter concentration or fractional anisotropy increase in any brain region in patients with bipolar disorder compared with controls. Limitations: The major limitation of our study is the small number of patients with bipolar disorder. Conclusion: Our data document the concomitant presence of grey matter concentration decreases in the anterior limbic areas and the reduced fibre tract coherence in the corpus callosum of elderly patients with long-lasting bipolar disorder.

Dose-dependent acute and sustained renal effects of the endothelin receptor antagonist avosentan in healthy subjects

Enjeu : L'incidence d'insuffisance rénale terminale augmente d'environ 5-6% par année dans nos régions. L'une des causes majeures d'insuffisance rénale est la néphropathie diabétique qui représente selon les pays entre 25 et 40% des néphropathies terminales. La progression de la néphropathie diabétique peut être ralentie de manière efficace par un bon contrôle du diabète et de l'hypertension artérielle et par le blocage du système rénine-angiotensine. Néanmoins, malgré l'application stricte de ces thérapies préventives, la néphropathie de bons nombres de patients diabétiques continue de progresser. Il est donc important de développer de nouvelles stratégies permettant de préserver la fonction rénale des patients diabétiques soit en améliorant le contrôle de la pression artérielle soit en diminuant la protéinurie. Contexte : Il existe un certain nombre d'évidences expérimentales que le blocage des récepteurs de l'endothéline pourrait avoir un effet positif sur le devenir de la néphropathie diabétique en diminuant de manière efficace la protéinurie même chez des animaux déjà traités efficacement avec un bloqueur du système rénine-angiotensine. Dans des études de phase 2 impliquant l'avosentan, un antagoniste des récepteurs de l'endothéline actuellement en cours de développement pour le traitement de la néphropathie diabétique, on a pu démontrer que cet antagoniste, prescrit à des doses oscillant entre 5 et 50 mg par jour per os, diminue la protéinurie d'environ 20-40% chez des patients déjà traités avec un IEC ou un antagoniste de l'angiotensine. Toutefois, une grande étude de phase III conduite avec ce médicament chez des patients diabétiques a du être interrompue précocement en raison de l'apparition d'oedèmes et d'une surcharge hydrosodée conduisant dans certains cas à une décompensation cardiaque aiguë. La rétention hydrosodée est un effet secondaire connu des antagonistes de l'endothéline déjà sur le marché. Toutefois, pour l'avosentan, on ne savait pas si des doses plus faibles du médicament avaient aussi un effet négative sur la balance hydrosodée. En outre, les mécanismes rénaux responsables de la rétention hydrosodée sont encore mal connus chez l'homme. C'est pourquoi, nous avons organisé et réalisé cette étude de pharmacologie clinique chez le volontaire sain posant 2 questions : 1) des doses faibles d'avosentan produisent-elles aussi une rétention hydrosodée chez l'homme ? et 2) quels sont les mécanismes rénaux pouvant expliquer la rétention hydrosodée ? Cette thèse est donc une étude clinique de phase I testant chez 23 volontaires sains les effets rénaux de différentes doses d'avosentan ou d'un placebo pour établir la courbe dose-réponse des effets rénaux de ce médicament. L'idée était également de définir quelle dose est sure et bien tolérée pour être utilisée dans une nouvelle étude de phase II. L'avosentan a été administré par voie orale une fois par jour pendant 8 jours à des doses de 0.5, 1.5, 5 et 50 mg. Les effets rénaux hémodynamiques et tubulaires ont été étudiés chez chaque sujet lors de la première administration (jour 1) et après une semaine de traitement (jour 8). Le médicament a induit une prise de poids dose-dépendante déjà présente à 5 mg et maximale à 50 mg (+ 0.8 kg au jour 8). Nous n'avons pas mesuré d'impact de l'avosentan sur l'hémodynamique rénale ni sur les électrolytes plasmatiques. En revanche, nous avons constaté une diminution dose-dépendante de la fraction d'excrétion de sodium (jusqu'à -8.7% avec avosentan 50 mg). Cette diminution était en rapport avec une augmentation dose-dépendante de la réabsorption proximale de sodium. Nous avons également constaté une baisse de la pression artérielle aux doses élevées et une hémodilution marquée par une baisse de l'hématocrite suggérant une rétention hydrique à la plus haute dose. Nos résultats suggèrent donc que l'avosentan induit une rétention sodée rénale dose-dépendante expliquée avant tout par une rétention du sodium au niveau du tubule proximal. Cet effet n'est pas observé à des doses plus basses que 5 mg chez le volontaire sain, suggérant que ce médicament devrait être évalué pour son activité réno-protectrice à des doses inférieures ou égales à 5 mg par jour. La raison pour laquelle les hautes doses produisent plus de rétention sodée est peut être liée à une perte de sélectivité pour les sous-types (A et B) de récepteurs à l'endothéline lorsque l'on administre des doses plus élevées que 5 mg. Perspectives : Les résultats de ce travail de thèse ont donc permis de caractériser les propriétés rénales d'un nouvel antagoniste des récepteurs de l'endothéline chez l'homme. Ces résultats ont aussi permis de guider le développement futur de ce médicament vers des doses plus faibles avec l'espoir de garder les effets bénéfiques sur la protéinurie tout en améliorant le profil de tolérance du médicament par l'utilisation de doses plus faibles. ANGLAIS The endothelin receptor antagonist avosentan may cause fluid overload at doses of 25 and 50 mg, but the actual mechanisms of this effect are unclear. We conducted a placebo-controlled study in 23 healthy subjects to assess the renal effects of avosentan and the dose dependency of these effects. Oral avosentan was administered once daily for 8 days at doses of 0.5, 1.5, 5, and 50 mg. The drug induced a dose-dependent median increase in body weight, most pronounced at 50 mg (0.8 kg on day 8). Avosentan did not affect renal hemodynamics or plasma electrolytes. A dose-dependent median reduction in the fractional renal excretion of sodium was found (up to 8.7% at avosentan 50 mg); this reduction was paralleled by a dose-related increase in proximal sodium reabsorption. It is suggested that avosentan dose-dependently induces sodium retention by the kidney, mainly through proximal tubular effects. The potential clinical benefits of avosentan should therefore be investigated at doses of ≤ 5 mg.

Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP

The well-known lack of power of unit root tests has often been attributed to the shortlength of macroeconomic variables and also to DGP s that depart from the I(1)-I(0)alternatives. This paper shows that by using long spans of annual real GNP and GNPper capita (133 years) high power can be achieved, leading to the rejection of both theunit root and the trend-stationary hypothesis. This suggests that possibly neither modelprovides a good characterization of these data. Next, more flexible representations areconsidered, namely, processes containing structural breaks (SB) and fractional ordersof integration (FI). Economic justification for the presence of these features in GNP isprovided. It is shown that the latter models (FI and SB) are in general preferred to theARIMA (I(1) or I(0)) ones. As a novelty in this literature, new techniques are appliedto discriminate between FI and SB models. It turns out that the FI specification ispreferred, implying that GNP and GNP per capita are non-stationary, highly persistentbut mean-reverting series. Finally, it is shown that the results are robust when breaksin the deterministic component are allowed for in the FI model. Some macroeconomicimplications of these findings are also discussed.

The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Genome-wide association analyses identify 18 new loci associated with serum urate concentrations.

Elevated serum urate concentrations can cause gout, a prevalent and painful inflammatory arthritis. By combining data from >140,000 individuals of European ancestry within the Global Urate Genetics Consortium (GUGC), we identified and replicated 28 genome-wide significant loci in association with serum urate concentrations (18 new regions in or near TRIM46, INHBB, SFMBT1, TMEM171, VEGFA, BAZ1B, PRKAG2, STC1, HNF4G, A1CF, ATXN2, UBE2Q2, IGF1R, NFAT5, MAF, HLF, ACVR1B-ACVRL1 and B3GNT4). Associations for many of the loci were of similar magnitude in individuals of non-European ancestry. We further characterized these loci for associations with gout, transcript expression and the fractional excretion of urate. Network analyses implicate the inhibins-activins signaling pathways and glucose metabolism in systemic urate control. New candidate genes for serum urate concentration highlight the importance of metabolic control of urate production and excretion, which may have implications for the treatment and prevention of gout.

Diagnostic de la maladie coronarienne stable par FFR non invasive, mythe ou réalité [Diagnosis of stable coronary artery disease with non-invasive FFR: myth or reality?].

Decision to revascularize a patient with stable coronary artery disease should be based on the detection of myocardial ischemia. If this decision can be straightforward with significant stenosis or in non-significant stenosis, the decision with intermediate stenosis is far more difficult and require invasive measures of functional impact of coronary stenosis on maximal blood (flow fractional flow reserve=FFR). A recent computer based method has been developed and is able to measure FFR with data acquired during a standard coronary CT-scan (FFRcT). Two recent clinical studies (DeFACTO and DISCOVER-FLOW) show that diagnostic performance of FFRcT was associated with improved diagnostic accuracy versus standard coronary CT-scan for the detection of myocardial ischemia although FFRcT need further development.