Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta/delta exerts a strong protection from ischemic acute renal failure.

Ischemic acute renal failure is characterized by damages to the proximal straight tubule in the outer medulla. Lesions include loss of polarity, shedding into the tubule lumen, and eventually necrotic or apoptotic death of epithelial cells. It was recently shown that peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta/delta (PPARbeta/delta) increases keratinocyte survival after an inflammatory reaction. Therefore, whether PPARbeta/delta could contribute also to the control of tubular epithelium death after renal ischemia/reperfusion was tested. It was found that PPARbeta/delta+/- and PPARbeta/delta-/- mutant mice exhibited much greater kidney dysfunction and injury than wild-type counterparts after a 30-min renal ischemia followed by a 36-h reperfusion. Conversely, wild-type mice that were given the specific PPARbeta/delta ligand L-165041 before renal ischemia were completely protected against renal dysfunction, as indicated by the lack of rise in serum creatinine and fractional excretion of Na+. This protective effect was accompanied by a significant reduction in medullary necrosis, apoptosis, and inflammation. On the basis of in vitro studies, PPARbeta/delta ligands seem to exert their role by activating the antiapoptotic Akt signaling pathway and, unexpectedly, by increasing the spreading of tubular epithelial cells, thus limiting potentially their shedding and anoikis. These results point to PPARbeta/delta as a remarkable new target for preconditioning strategies.

Effects of the encapsulation of usnic acid into liposomes and interactions with antituberculous agents against multidrug-resistant tuberculosis clinical isolates

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) has acquired resistance and consequently the antibiotic therapeutic options available against this microorganism are limited. In this scenario, the use of usnic acid (UA), a natural compound, encapsulated into liposomes is proposed as a new approach in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) therapy. Thus the aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the encapsulation of UA into liposomes, as well as its combination with antituberculous agents such as rifampicin (RIF) and isoniazid (INH) against MDR-TB clinical isolates. The in vitro antimycobacterial activity of UA-loaded liposomes (UA-Lipo) against MDR-TB was assessed by the microdilution method. The in vitro interaction of UA with antituberculous agents was carried out using checkerboard method. Minimal inhibitory concentration values were 31.25 and 0.98 µg/mL for UA and UA-Lipo, respectively. The results exhibited a synergistic interaction between RIF and UA [fractional inhibitory concentration index (FICI) = 0.31] or UA-Lipo (FICI = 0.28). Regarding INH, the combination of UA or UA-Lipo revealed no marked effect (FICI = 1.30-2.50). The UA-Lipo may be used as a dosage form to improve the antimycobacterial activity of RIF, a first-line drug for the treatment of infections caused by Mtb.

La revascularisation transmyocardique au laser--un risque potentiel en condition aiguë [Laser transmyocardial revascularization--a potential risk in an acute situation?]

Morphological and functional effects of transmyocardial laser revascularization (TMLR) are analyzed in an acute setting on a porcine model. Ten channels were drilled in the left lateral wall of the heart of 15 pigs (mean weight, 73 +/- 4 kg) with a Holmium-YAG laser (wavelength: 2.1 mu, probe diameter: 1.75 mm). Echocardiographic control was performed before the TMLR procedure as well as 5 min and 30 min thereafter. Echocardiographic parameters were recorded in short-axis at the level of the laser channels, and included left ventricular ejection fraction, fractional shortening and segmental wall motility of the channels' area (scale 0-3: 0 = normal, 1 = hypokinesia, 2 = akinesia, 3 = dyskinesia). After sacrifice the lased region was sliced perpendicularly to the channels for histological and morphometrical analysis. Five minutes after the drilling of the channels, all the echocardiographic index worsened significantly in comparison with baseline values (p < 0.01). All recovered after 30 min and showed no difference with baseline values. Cross-section of the channel lesions measured 8.8 +/- 2.4 mm2 which is more than three times that of the probe (p < 0.01). In acute conditions, the lesions due to the TMLR probe are significantly larger than the probe itself and cause a transient drop of the segmental wall motility on a healthy myocardium. These results suggest that TMLR should be used cautiously in the clinical setting for patients with an impaired ventricular function.

Multi-parametric evaluation of sit-to-stand and stand-to-sit transitions in elderly people.

The aim of this study was to extract multi-parametric measures characterizing different features of sit-to-stand (Si-St) and stand-to-sit (St-Si) transitions in older persons, using a single inertial sensor attached to the chest. Investigated parameters were transition's duration, range of trunk tilt, smoothness of transition pattern assessed by its fractal dimension, and trunk movement's dynamic described by local wavelet energy. A measurement protocol with a Si-St followed by a St-Si postural transition was performed by two groups of participants: the first group (N=79) included Frail Elderly subjects admitted to a post-acute rehabilitation facility and the second group (N=27) were healthy community-dwelling elderly persons. Subjects were also evaluated with Tinetti's POMA scale. Compared to Healthy Elderly persons, frail group at baseline had significantly longer Si-St (3.85±1.04 vs. 2.60±0.32, p=0.001) and St-Si (4.08±1.21 vs. 2.81±0.36, p=0.001) transition's duration. Frail older persons also had significantly decreased smoothness of Si-St transition pattern (1.36±0.07 vs. 1.21±0.05, p=0.001) and dynamic of trunk movement. Measurements after three weeks of rehabilitation in frail older persons showed that smoothness of transition pattern had the highest improvement effect size (0.4) and discriminative performance. These results demonstrate the potential interest of such parameters to distinguish older subjects with different functional and health conditions.

Weighted Shape-based Averaging with Neighborhood Prior Model for Multiple Atlas Fusion-based Medical Image Segmentation

In medical imaging, merging automated segmentations obtained from multiple atlases has become a standard practice for improving the accuracy. In this letter, we propose two new fusion methods: "Global Weighted Shape-Based Averaging" (GWSBA) and "Local Weighted Shape-Based Averaging" (LWSBA). These methods extend the well known Shape-Based Averaging (SBA) by additionally incorporating the similarity information between the reference (i.e., atlas) images and the target image to be segmented. We also propose a new spatially-varying similarity-weighted neighborhood prior model, and an edge-preserving smoothness term that can be used with many of the existing fusion methods. We first present our new Markov Random Field (MRF) based fusion framework that models the above mentioned information. The proposed methods are evaluated in the context of segmentation of lymph nodes in the head and neck 3D CT images, and they resulted in more accurate segmentations compared to the existing SBA.

A non-invasive assessment of hepatic glycogen kinetics and post-absorptive gluconeogenesis in man.

A novel approach to the study of hepatic glycogen kinetics and fractional gluconeogenesis in vivo is described. Ten healthy female subjects were fed an iso-caloric diet containing 55% carbohydrate energy with a 13C abundance of 1.083 atom percent for a 3-day baseline period; then, a diet of similar composition, but providing carbohydrate with a 13C abundance of 1.093 atom percent was started and continued for 5 days. Resting respiratory gas exchanges, urinary nitrogen excretion, breath 13CO2 and plasma 13C glucose were measured every morning in the fasting state. The enrichment in 13C of hepatic glycogen was calculated from these measured data. 13C glycogen enrichment increased after switching to a 13C enriched carbohydrate diet, and was identical to the 13C enrichment of dietary carbohydrates after 3 days. The time required to renew 50% of hepatic glycogen, as determined from the kinetics of 13C glycogen enrichment, was 18.9 +/- 3.6 h. Fractional gluconeogenesis, as determined from the difference between the enrichments of glucose oxidized originating from hepatic glycogen and plasma glucose 13C was 50.8 +/- 5.3%. This non-invasive method will allow the study of hepatic glycogen metabolism in insulin-resistant patients.

Textural, chemical, and isotopic effects of late-magmatic carbonatitic fluids in the carbonatite-syenite Tamazeght complex, High Atlas Mountains, Morocco

Carbonatites of the Eocene Tamazeght complex, High Atlas Mountains, Morocco, consist of calciocarbonatites (alvikite and sovite dykes) and magnesiocarbonatites (diatreme breccias and dykes rocks). These are associated with ultramafic, shonkinitic, gabbroic to monzonitic and various foid syenitic silicate units. Stable and radiogenic isotope compositions for carbonatites and silicate rocks indicate that they share a common source in the mantle, although for some carbonatitic samples contamination with sedimentary rocks seems important. The observed isotopic heterogeneity is mainly attributed to source characteristics, fractional crystallization (accompanied by various degrees of assimilation), and late- to post-magmatic fluid-rock interaction. During the late fluid-rock interaction, Sr, Mn, and possibly also Fe were mobilized and redistributed to form secondary carbonate minerals in carbonatites. These fluids also penetrated into the adjacent syenitic rocks, causing enrichment in the same elements.

A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics

This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32

A positive interaction between inhibitors of protein synthesis and cefepime in the fight against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

Quinupristin-dalfopristin (Q-D) synergizes with cefepime for the treatment of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Here, we studied whether the synergism was restricted to MRSA and if it extended to non-beta-lactam cell wall inhibitors or to other inhibitors of protein synthesis. Three MRSA and two methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) strains were tested, including an isogenic pair of mecA (-)/mecA (+) S. aureus Newman. The drug interactions were determined by fractional inhibitory concentration (FIC) indices and population analysis profiles. The antibacterial drugs that we used included beta-lactam (cefepime) and non-beta-lactam cell wall inhibitors (D-cycloserine, fosfomycin, vancomycin, teicoplanin), inhibitors of protein synthesis (Q-D, erythromycin, chloramphenicol, tetracycline, linezolid, fusidic acid), and polynucleotide inhibitors (cotrimoxazole, ciprofloxacin). The addition of each protein inhibitor to cefepime was synergistic (FIC ≤ 0.5) or additive (FIC > 0.5 but < 1) against MRSA, but mostly indifferent against MSSA (FIC ≥ 1 but ≤ 4). This segregation was not observed after adding cotrimoxazole or ciprofloxacin to cefepime. Population analysis profiles were performed on plates in the presence of increasing concentrations of the cell wall inhibitors plus 0.25 × minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of Q-D. Cefepime combined with Q-D was synergistic against MRSA, but D-cycloserine and glycopeptides were not. Thus, the synergism was specific to beta-lactam antibiotics. Moreover, the synergism was not lost against fem mutants, indicating that it acted at another level. The restriction of the beneficial effect to MRSA suggests that the functionality of penicillin-binding protein 2A (PBP2A) was affected, either directly or indirectly. Further studies are necessary in order to provide a mechanism for this positive interaction.

Measuring Pavement Profile at the Slip-Form Paver, May 2005

Pavement profile or smoothness has been identified nationally as a good measure of highway user satisfaction. This has led highway engineers to measure profiles of both operating and new highways. Operational highway profiles are often measured with high-speed inertial profilers. New highway profiles are usually measured with profilographs in order to establish incentives or disincentives for pavement construction. In most cases, these two processes do not measure the same value from the “cradle to grave” life of pavements. In an attempt to correct the inconsistency between measuring techniques, lightweight profilers intended to produce values to be used for construction acceptance are being made that measure the same profile as high-speed inertial profilers. Currently, two profiler systems have been identified that can measure pavement profile during construction. This research has produced a field evaluation of the two systems. The profilers evaluated in this study are able to detect roughness in the final profile, including localized roughness and roughness at joints. Dowel basket ripple is a significant source of pavement surface roughness. The profilers evaluated in this study are able to detect dowel basket ripple with enough clarity to warn the paving crew. String-line disturbances degrade smoothness. The profilers evaluated in this study are able to detect some string-line disturbances during paving operations. The profilers evaluated in this study are not currently able to produce the same absolute International Roughness Index (IRI) values on the plastic concrete that can be measured by inertial profilers on the hardened concrete. Construction application guidelines are provided.

Sähkökoneen staattorikäämityksen kehittäminen

Tämä insinöörityö tehtiin ABB:n Pitäjänmäen konetehtaalle Tahtikoneet-tulosyksikölle. Työssä tutkittiin mahdollisuuksia valmistaa murtovakovyyhtejä kestomagneettituuligeneraattoreihin, joissa vakoluku on alle yhden. Työ tehtiin tutustumalla aluksi Pitäjänmäen konetehtaan käytössä oleviin vyyhden valmistus- ja käämintämenetelmiin. Lisäksi tutkittiin erilaisia mahdollisia murtovakovyyhden valmistusmenetelmiä, joista lupaavimpia myös kokeiltiin. Saatujen kokemusten pohjalta valittiin vyyhden valmistusmenetelmä, jonka mukaan valmistettiin koe-erä. Koe-erälle suoritettiin mittauksia, joilla varmistettiin niiden sähköinen kestävyys Työn tuloksena valitulla valmistusmenetelmällä valmistettiin vyyhdet prototyyppi tuuligeneraattorin.

Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components

This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliary regression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d ∈ [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d & 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 ≤ d & 1,, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributed tests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.

The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Strategic Plan for Improved Concrete Pavement Surface Characteristics, July 2006

Surface characteristics represent a critical issue facing pavement owners and the concrete paving industry. The traveling public has come to expect smoother, quieter, and better drained pavements, all without compromising safety. The overall surface characteristics issues is extremely complex since all pavement surface characteristics properties, including texture, noise, friction, splash/spray, rolling resistance, reflectivity/illuminance, and smoothness, are complexly related. The following needs and gaps related to achieving desired pavement surface characteristics need to be addressed: determined how changes in one surface characteristic affect, either beneficially or detrimentally, other characteristics of the pavement, determine the long-term surface and acoustic durability of different textures, and develop, evaluate, and standardize new data collection and analysis tools. It is clear that an overall strategic and coordinated research approach to the problem must be developed and pursued to address these needs and gaps.