Essays on regulatory risk issues

Most studies around that try to verify the existence of regulatory risk look mainly at developed countries. Looking at regulatory risk in emerging market regulated sectors is no less important to improving and increasing investment in those markets. This thesis comprises three papers comprising regulatory risk issues. In the first Paper I check whether CAPM betas capture information on regulatory risk by using a two-step procedure. In the first step I run Kalman Filter estimates and then use these estimated betas as inputs in a Random-Effect panel data model. I find evidence of regulatory risk in electricity, telecommunications and all regulated sectors in Brazil. I find further evidence that regulatory changes in the country either do not reduce or even increase the betas of the regulated sectors, going in the opposite direction to the buffering hypothesis as proposed by Peltzman (1976). In the second Paper I check whether CAPM alphas say something about regulatory risk. I investigate a methodology similar to those used by some regulatory agencies around the world like the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) that incorporates a specific component of regulatory risk in setting tariffs for regulated sectors. I find using SUR estimates negative and significant alphas for all regulated sectors especially the electricity and telecommunications sectors. This runs in the face of theory that predicts alphas that are not statistically different from zero. I suspect that the significant alphas are related to misspecifications in the traditional CAPM that fail to capture true regulatory risk factors. On of the reasons is that CAPM does not consider factors that are proven to have significant effects on asset pricing, such as Fama and French size (ME) and price-to-book value (ME/BE). In the third Paper, I use two additional factors as controls in the estimation of alphas, and the results are similar. Nevertheless, I find evidence that the negative alphas may be the result of the regulated sectors premiums associated with the three Fama and French factors, particularly the market risk premium. When taken together, ME and ME/BE regulated sectors diminish the statistical significance of market factors premiums, especially for the electricity sector. This show how important is the inclusion of these factors, which unfortunately is scarce in emerging markets like Brazil.

Estratégia de trading utilizando o modelo dinâmico de Nelson-Siegel

Esta pesquisa busca testar a eficácia de uma estratégia de arbitragem de taxas de juros no Brasil baseada na utilização do modelo de Nelson-Siegel dinâmico aplicada à curva de contratos futuros de taxa de juros de 1 dia da BM&FBovespa para o período compreendido entre 02 de janeiro de 2008 e 03 de dezembro de 2012. O trabalho adapta para o mercado brasileiro o modelo original proposto por Nelson e Siegel (1987), e algumas de suas extensões e interpretações, chegando a um dos modelos propostos por Diebold, Rudebusch e Aruoba (2006), no qual estimam os parâmetros do modelo de Nelson-Siegel em uma única etapa, colocando-o em formato de espaço de estados e utilizando o Filtro de Kalman para realizar a previsão dos fatores, assumindo que o comportamento dos mesmos é um VAR de ordem 1. Desta maneira, o modelo possui a vantagem de que todos os parâmetros são estimados simultaneamente, e os autores mostraram que este modelo possui bom poder preditivo. Os resultados da estratégia adotada foram animadores quando considerados para negociação apenas os 7 primeiros vencimentos abertos para negociação na BM&FBovespa, que possuem maturidade máxima próxima a 1 ano.

Previsão de inflação utilizando modelos de séries temporais

Este trabalho compara modelos de séries temporais para a projeção de curto prazo da inflação brasileira, medida pelo Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA). Foram considerados modelos SARIMA de Box e Jenkins e modelos estruturais em espaço de estados, estimados pelo filtro de Kalman. Para a estimação dos modelos, foi utilizada a série do IPCA na base mensal, de março de 2003 a março de 2012. Os modelos SARIMA foram estimados no EVIEWS e os modelos estruturais no STAMP. Para a validação dos modelos para fora da amostra, foram consideradas as previsões 1 passo à frente para o período de abril de 2012 a março de 2013, tomando como base os principais critérios de avaliação de capacidade preditiva propostos na literatura. A conclusão do trabalho é que, embora o modelo estrutural permita, decompor a série em componentes com interpretação direta e estudá-las separadamente, além de incorporar variáveis explicativas de forma simples, o desempenho do modelo SARIMA para prever a inflação brasileira foi superior, no período e horizonte considerados. Outro importante aspecto positivo é que a implementação de um modelo SARIMA é imediata, e previsões a partir dele são obtidas de forma simples e direta.

Previsão da estrutura a termo de taxa de juros aplicando o Filtro de Kalman ao modelo Vasicek: o caso brasileiro

Este trabalho tem o objetivo de testar a qualidade preditiva do Modelo Vasicek de dois fatores acoplado ao Filtro de Kalman. Aplicado a uma estratégia de investimento, incluímos um critério de Stop Loss nos períodos que o modelo não responde de forma satisfatória ao movimento das taxas de juros. Utilizando contratos futuros de DI disponíveis na BMFBovespa entre 01 de março de 2007 a 30 de maio de 2014, as simulações foram realizadas em diferentes momentos de mercado, verificando qual a melhor janela para obtenção dos parâmetros dos modelos, e por quanto tempo esses parâmetros estimam de maneira ótima o comportamento das taxas de juros. Os resultados foram comparados com os obtidos pelo Modelo Vetor-auto regressivo de ordem 1, e constatou-se que o Filtro de Kalman aplicado ao Modelo Vasicek de dois fatores não é o mais indicado para estudos relacionados a previsão das taxas de juros. As limitações desse modelo o restringe em conseguir estimar toda a curva de juros de uma só vez denegrindo seus resultados.

Modelo Nelson-Siegel dinâmico da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros com fatores exógenos macroeconômicos: uma aplicação ao mercado brasileiro

A tradicional representação da estrutura a termo das taxas de juros em três fatores latentes (nível, inclinação e curvatura) teve sua formulação original desenvolvida por Charles R. Nelson e Andrew F. Siegel em 1987. Desde então, diversas aplicações vêm sendo desenvolvidas por acadêmicos e profissionais de mercado tendo como base esta classe de modelos, sobretudo com a intenção de antecipar movimentos nas curvas de juros. Ao mesmo tempo, estudos recentes como os de Diebold, Piazzesi e Rudebusch (2010), Diebold, Rudebusch e Aruoba (2006), Pooter, Ravazallo e van Dijk (2010) e Li, Niu e Zeng (2012) sugerem que a incorporação de informação macroeconômica aos modelos da ETTJ pode proporcionar um maior poder preditivo. Neste trabalho, a versão dinâmica do modelo Nelson-Siegel, conforme proposta por Diebold e Li (2006), foi comparada a um modelo análogo, em que são incluídas variáveis exógenas macroeconômicas. Em paralelo, foram testados dois métodos diferentes para a estimação dos parâmetros: a tradicional abordagem em dois passos (Two-Step DNS), e a estimação com o Filtro de Kalman Estendido, que permite que os parâmetros sejam estimados recursivamente, a cada vez que uma nova informação é adicionada ao sistema. Em relação aos modelos testados, os resultados encontrados mostram-se pouco conclusivos, apontando uma melhora apenas marginal nas estimativas dentro e fora da amostra quando as variáveis exógenas são incluídas. Já a utilização do Filtro de Kalman Estendido mostrou resultados mais consistentes quando comparados ao método em dois passos para praticamente todos os horizontes de tempo estudados.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Vantagens e desvantagens do modelo dinâmico de Nelson-Siegel : aplicação ao mercado brasileiro

A modelagem da estrutura a termo da taxa juros tem grande relevância para o mercado financeiro, isso se deve ao fato de ser utilizada na precificação de títulos de crédito e derivativos, ser componente fundamental nas políticas econômicas e auxiliar a criação de estratégias trading. A classe de modelos criada por Nelson-Siegel (1987), foi estendida por diversos autores e atualmente é largamente utilizada por diversos bancos centrais ao redor do mundo. Nesse trabalho utilizaremos a extensão proposta por Diebold e Li (2006) aplicada para o mercado brasileiro, os parâmetros serão calibrados através do Filtro de Kalman e do Filtro de Kalman Estendido, sendo que o último método permitirá estimar com dinamismo os quatros parâmetros do modelo. Como mencionado por Durbin e Koopman (2012), as fórmulas envolvidas no filtro de Kalman e em sua versão estendida não impõe condições de dimensão constante do vetor de observações. Partindo desse conceito, a implementação dos filtros foi feita de forma a possibilitar sua aplicação independentemente do número de observações da curva de juros em cada instante de tempo, dispensando a necessidade de interpolar os dados antes da calibração. Isso ajuda a refletir mais fielmente a realidade do mercado e relaxar as hipóteses assumidas ao interpolar previamente para obter vértices fixos. Também será testada uma nova proposta de adaptação do modelo de Nelson-Siegel, nela o parâmetro de nível será condicionado aos títulos terem vencimento antes ou depois da próxima reunião do Copom. O objetivo é comparar qualidade da predição entre os métodos, pontuando quais são as vantagens e desvantagens encontradas em cada um deles.

Balance-bot

Research on inverted pendulum has gained momentum over the last decade on a number of robotic laboratories over the world; due to its unstable proprieties is a good example for control engineers to verify a control theory. To verify that the pendulum can balance we can make some simulations using a closed-loop controller method such as the linear quadratic regulator or the proportional–integral–derivative method. Also the idea of robotic teleoperation is gaining ground. Controlling a robot at a distance and doing that precisely. However, designing the tool to takes the best benefit of the human skills while keeping the error minimal is interesting, and due to the fact that the inverted pendulum is an unstable system it makes a compelling test case for exploring dynamic teleoperation. Therefore this thesis focuses on the construction of a two-wheel inverted pendulum robot, which sensor we can use to do that, how they must be integrated in the system and how we can use a human to control an inverted pendulum. The inverted pendulum robot developed employs technology like sensors, actuators and controllers. This Master thesis starts by presenting an introduction to inverted pendulums and some information about related areas such as control theory. It continues by describing related work in this area. Then we describe the mathematical model of a two-wheel inverted pendulum and a simulation made in Matlab. We also focus in the construction of this type of robot and its working theory. Because this is a mobile robot we address the theme of the teleoperation and finally this thesis finishes with a general conclusion and ideas of future work.

Breadcrumbs: location and context aware mobile platform for story sharing

With the current proliferation of sensor equipped mobile devices such as smartphones and tablets, location aware services are expanding beyond the mere efficiency and work related needs of users, evolving in order to incorporate fun, culture and the social life of users. Today people on the move have more and more connectivity and are expected to be able to communicate with their usual and familiar social networks. That means communications not only with their peers and colleagues, friends and family but also with unknown people that might share their interests, curiosities or happen to use the same social network. Through social networks, location aware blogging, cultural mobile applications relevant information is now available at specific geographical locations and open to feedback and conversations among friends as well as strangers. In fact, nowadays smartphone technologies aloud users to post and retrieve content while on the move, often relating to specific physical landmarks or locations, engaging and being engaged in conversations with strangers as much as their own social network. The use of such technologies and applications while on the move can often lead people to serendipitous discoveries and interactions. Throughout our thesis we are engaging on a two folded investigation: how can we foster and support serendipitous discoveries and what are the best interfaces for it? In fact, to read and write content while on the move is a cognitively intensive task. While the map serves the function of orienting the user, it also absorbs most of the user’s concentration. In order to address this kind of cognitive overload issue with Breadcrumbs we propose a 360 degrees interface that enables the user to find content around them by means of scanning the surrounding space with the mobile device. By using a loose metaphor of a periscope, harnessing the power of the smartphone sensors we designed an interactive interface capable of detecting content around the users and display it in the form of 2 dimensional bubbles which diameter depends on their distance from the users. Users will navigate the space in relation to the content that they are curious about, rather than in relation to the traditional geographical map. Through this model we envisage alleviating a certain cognitive overload generated by having to continuously confront a two dimensional map with the real three dimensional space surrounding the user, but also use the content as a navigational filter. Furthermore this alternative mean of navigating space might bring serendipitous discovery about places that user where not aware of or intending to reach. We hence conclude our thesis with the evaluation of the Breadcrumbs application and the comparison of the 360 degrees interface with a traditional 2 dimensional map displayed on the devise screen. Results from the evaluation are compiled in findings and insights for future use in designing and developing context aware mobile applications.

Real-Time Visual SLAM Using Pre - Existing Floor Lines as Landmarks and a Single Camera

SANTANA, André M.; SANTIAGO, Gutemberg S.; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. Real-Time Visual SLAM Using Pre-Existing Floor Lines as Landmarks and a Single Camera. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE AUTOMÁTICA, 2008, Juiz de Fora, MG. Anais... Juiz de Fora: CBA, 2008.

Modelagem e previsão da perda de injetividade em poços canhoneados

Waterflooding is a technique largely applied in the oil industry. The injected water displaces oil to the producer wells and avoid reservoir pressure decline. However, suspended particles in the injected water may cause plugging of pore throats causing formation damage (permeability reduction) and injectivity decline during waterflooding. When injectivity decline occurs it is necessary to increase the injection pressure in order to maintain water flow injection. Therefore, a reliable prediction of injectivity decline is essential in waterflooding projects. In this dissertation, a simulator based on the traditional porous medium filtration model (including deep bed filtration and external filter cake formation) was developed and applied to predict injectivity decline in perforated wells (this prediction was made from history data). Experimental modeling and injectivity decline in open-hole wells is also discussed. The injectivity of modeling showed good agreement with field data, which can be used to support plan stimulation injection wells

Modelagem matemática para o transporte de partículas sujeitas a múltiplos mecanismos de retenção

Discrepancies between classical model predictions and experimental data for deep bed filtration have been reported by various authors. In order to understand these discrepancies, an analytic continuum model for deep bed filtration is proposed. In this model, a filter coefficient is attributed to each distinct retention mechanism (straining, diffusion, gravity interception, etc.). It was shown that these coefficients generally cannot be merged into an effective filter coefficient, as considered in the classical model. Furthermore, the derived analytic solutions for the proposed model were applied for fitting experimental data, and a very good agreement between experimental data and proposed model predictions were obtained. Comparison of the obtained results with empirical correlations allowed identifying the dominant retention mechanisms. In addition, it was shown that the larger the ratio of particle to pore sizes, the more intensive the straining mechanism and the larger the discrepancies between experimental data and classical model predictions. The classical model and proposed model were compared via statistical analysis. The obtained p values allow concluding that the proposed model should be preferred especially when straining plays an important role. In addition, deep bed filtration with finite retention capacity was studied. This work also involves the study of filtration of particles through porous media with a finite capacity of filtration. It was observed, in this case, that is necessary to consider changes in the boundary conditions through time evolution. It was obtained a solution for such a model using different functions of filtration coefficients. Besides that, it was shown how to build a solution for any filtration coefficient. It was seen that, even considering the same filtration coefficient, the classic model and the one here propposed, show different predictions for the concentration of particles retained in the porous media and for the suspended particles at the exit of the media

Avaliação da atividade antimalárica de extratos obtidos de algas marinhas no litoral do Rio Grande do Norte

Malaria is a major parasitic disease worldwide, accounting for about 500 million cases and causing 2 million to 3 million deaths annually. Four species are responsible for transmitting this disease to humans: Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale. The parasite resistance to antimalarial drugs and the usual limitations of the vector control implications are contributing to the spread of the disease. The most of significant advances in the search for new antimalarial drugs is based on natural components, the main ones being currently used antimalarial drugs derived from plants. Research on natural products of marine origin (particularly algae) show that some species possess antiplasmodial activity. Knowing that the coast of Rio Grande do Norte is home to several species of algae, the present study was to evaluate, for the first time, the antimalarial activity of ethanolic extracts of seaweed Spatoglossum schroederi, Gracilaria birdiae and Udotea flabellum against Plasmodium falciparum 3D7 strain tests and in vitro using the murine model (Plasmodium berghei) for evaluation in vivo. These species were ground, macerated with ethanol for 24 hours and the extracts concentrated in rotaevaporador (45 ° C ± 5 ° C). For in vitro tests, the extracts were diluted and tested at concentrations between 100 and 1.56 μg/ml (seven concentrations in triplicate), in order to obtain IC50 of each extract. The cytotoxicity tests with macrophages and BGM were performed using the MTT colorimetric assay. BGM macrophages and cells were distributed in 96 wells per plate (1x 105 to macrophages and 1x104 cells per well for BGM) and incubated for 24h at 37 ° C. The ethanol extracts were diluted and tested at concentrations of 100 to 1,56 μg/ml (seven concentrations in triplicate). After periods of 24 hours of incubation with the extracts, 100 μg of MTT was added to each well, and 3 hours elapsed, the supernatant was removed and added 200 μl of DMSO in each well. The absorbance of each well was obtained by reading on a spectrophotometer at 570 nm filter. To evaluate the acute toxicity in vivo, Swiss mice received a single dose (oral) 2000 mg/kg/animal of each extract tested. The parameters of acute toxicity were observed for 8 days. For in vivo tests, Swiss mice were inoculated with 1x105 erythrocytes infected with P. berghei. The treatment was given first to fourth day after infection with 0.2 ml of the extracts in doses of 1000 and 500 mg//g animal. The negative control group received 0.2 ml of 2% Tween-20, whereas the positive control group received sub-dose of chloroquine (5 mg/kg/animal). The assessment of antimalarial activity was done by suppressing suppressing the parasitemia at 5 and 7 days after infection. The growth inhibition of parasites was determined relative to negative control (% inhibition = parasitaemia in control - parasitemia in sample / parasitemia control x 100), the mortality of animals was monitored daily for 30 days The results showed that algae Spatoglossum schroederi and Udotea flabellum showed antimalarial activity in vitro, with reduced parasitemia of 70.54% and 54, respectively. The extracts of the three algae tested showed moderate to high cytotoxicity. Algae S. schroederi and U. flabellum were active against P. berghei only at doses of 500 mg / kg with reduction ranging from 54.58 to 52.65% for the fifth day and from 32.24 to 47.34% for the seventh day, respectively. No toxicity was observed in vivo at the dose tested, over the 8 days of observation. Although preliminary data, the bioactive components in those possible seaweed may be promising for the development of new anti-malarial drugs

Controle Adaptativo Robusto para Filtros Ativos de Potência Paralelo

Conventional control strategies used in shunt active power filters (SAPF) employs real-time instantaneous harmonic detection schemes which is usually implements with digital filters. This increase the number of current sensors on the filter structure which results in high costs. Furthermore, these detection schemes introduce time delays which can deteriorate the harmonic compensation performance. Differently from the conventional control schemes, this paper proposes a non-standard control strategy which indirectly regulates the phase currents of the power mains. The reference currents of system are generated by the dc-link voltage controller and is based on the active power balance of SAPF system. The reference currents are aligned to the phase angle of the power mains voltage vector which is obtained by using a dq phase locked loop (PLL) system. The current control strategy is implemented by an adaptive pole placement control strategy integrated to a variable structure control scheme (VS-APPC). In the VS-APPC, the internal model principle (IMP) of reference currents is used for achieving the zero steady state tracking error of the power system currents. This forces the phase current of the system mains to be sinusoidal with low harmonics content. Moreover, the current controllers are implemented on the stationary reference frame to avoid transformations to the mains voltage vector reference coordinates. This proposed current control strategy enhance the performance of SAPF with fast transient response and robustness to parametric uncertainties. Experimental results are showing for determining the effectiveness of SAPF proposed control system

SurRFE -Sub-rede de filtragens específicas

The increasing of the number of attacks in the computer networks has been treated with the increment of the resources that are applied directly in the active routers equip-ments of these networks. In this context, the firewalls had been consolidated as essential elements in the input and output control process of packets in a network. With the advent of intrusion detectors systems (IDS), efforts have been done in the direction to incorporate packets filtering based in standards of traditional firewalls. This integration incorporates the IDS functions (as filtering based on signatures, until then a passive element) with the already existing functions in firewall. In opposite of the efficiency due this incorporation in the blockage of signature known attacks, the filtering in the application level provokes a natural retard in the analyzed packets, and it can reduce the machine performance to filter the others packets because of machine resources demand by this level of filtering. This work presents models of treatment for this problem based in the packets re-routing for analysis by a sub-network with specific filterings. The suggestion of implementa- tion of this model aims reducing the performance problem and opening a space for the consolidation of scenes where others not conventional filtering solutions (spam blockage, P2P traffic control/blockage, etc.) can be inserted in the filtering sub-network, without inplying in overload of the main firewall in a corporative network